Why so many rolling stock changes?

[anti-pacer]

Given the average life usage of a train is about 30 years, why do some TOC's, especially in the South East, order new trains more frequently?

C2C have new trains to come but their stock was totally replaced not all that long ago.

 

[Bletchleyite]

C2C is a growth build, isn't it?

 

[anti-pacer]

C2C is a growth build, isn't it?

Oh OK. So the new stock will run in addition to the current?

 

[samuelmorris]

Yes it will, 17 units aren't likely to be able to replace 80!

All in the name of cascades - sometimes it makes more sense to acquire new trains when the existing ones aren't that old, and send the older ones elsewhere, this can be for all sorts of reasons. it takes quite a while to understand the whims of train operators and the rolling stock operating companies that lease the trains to them.

 

[edwin_m]

It is Anglia and South West franchises that will be replacing relatively new fleets. The logic seems to be that new trains are very cheap at present (at least compared to a few years ago) and the criteria the government uses to choose the winning bidder gives more credit to new trains than it did a few years ago.

However I expect that after the owners of these new (and refurbished) fleets find them out of use after only a short time, they won't be prepared to buy new trains for leasing out unless they have either a very long lease signed up, or a short lease at a very high rental rate.

 

[cjmillsnun]

The SWR order seems a massive waste to me. Once they are past the teething troubles stage, I would think the 707s would settle down and be as reliable as the 450s and 444s. An extension to that order to replace the 455s would've made sense a few years into the franchise, but total inner suburban fleet replacement when some trains haven't even entered service yet, is extremely wasteful.

I do wonder if it would be better to slightly refettle 707s to have toilets and appropriate seating and put them to work on the Pompey direct.

 

[D6975]

It is Anglia and South West franchises that will be replacing relatively new fleets.

What?? Anglia only have a handful of youthful trains. Most of their stuff is old.

 

[tbtc]

Given the average life usage of a train is about 30 years, why do some TOC's, especially in the South East, order new trains more frequently?

Partly because it's always made sense to order new stock for your "flagship" operations (the most profitable, the high profile) and then cascade to other routes.

Which is why bus companies order new vehicles for their big city operations then cascade them to smaller conurbations after a few years - same goes with TOCs - it's easier to justify ordering new trains for an area that pays a premium to the Treasury (and then cascade the older ones to an area that requires a high subsidy) than it would be to justify ordering brand new trains for the high subsidy area.

I do wonder if it would be better to slightly refettle 707s to have toilets and appropriate seating and put them to work on the Pompey direct.

I don't know about 707s to Portsmouth, but the expense of refurbishing the 442s and bringing a small fleet of them into the 21st century seems to go against the current tide of "new is cheaper than old" - I'm not sure how it's economical to polish a 442 until it's good enough for the 2020s but it was cheaper to order brand new trains to replace "young" trains on other bits of SWT (and GA, TPE etc).

Unless the 442s were leased at a giveaway price, due to the lack of alternative uses for them, it doesn't make sense to me. But then, I am a humble enthusiast rather than someone sitting down with a spreadsheet crunching the actual numbers.

 

[F Great Eastern]

What?? Anglia only have a handful of youthful trains. Most of their stuff is old.

Indeed.

I am on record as saying I think the Greater Anglia order is over the top and that some of the newer stuff doesn't need replacing, but there is a hell of a lot of old stuff there which will be meeting the breakers soon or not finding regular service post 2020.

I'm talking about:
130 MK3 vehicles (40-42 years old)
232 Class 317 vehicles (30-35 years old)
416 Class 321 vehicles (27-29 years old)
5 Class 153 vehicles (30 years old)
18 Class 156 vehicles (28-30 years old)

They'll hang on for another two and a bit years till the new stock is in place, but by that time they'll be approx 800 carriages that are 30 years older or more, so it's hardly young stock.

The 156/s and the 317s will be broken up and I would expect to see a fair few of the Non Renataus 321s to be scrapped as well from 2020 onwards because there is going to be a large number of much more modern DMUs EMUs being displaced from GA and other franchises....

Speaking of which, this lot is being returned off lease from GA too (the so called modern kit, but even a lot of this is mid-life or approaching it)

32 Class 170 vehicles (16-18 years)
84 Class 360 vehicles (14 years)
120 Class 379 vehicles (7 years)

As you can see right now the so called modern kit doesn't even make up a quarter of the current stock, so to say that GA doesn't deserve new trains is false, over 75% of the stock needs to go, I still remain to be convinced that the modern stock has to go as well, but GA as it currently stands has a hell of a lot of elderly stock and deserves some investment.

 

[jopsuk]

(Ignoring the Intercity stuff)

At privatisation, the bulk of the Regional Railways fleet were Sprinters and Pacers built in the 80s, whilst the bulk of the NSE fleet were Mark 1 based DC units (south of the river) and AM-series AC units (north of the river).

This is a gross simplification of course- much of the Anglia fleet now to be replaced is 80s Mark 3 AC units.

But largely, this meant the big post-privatisation fleet orders, 20 years ago now, were for the south east- the big Electrostar and Desiro fleets, with some Junipers. The main new fleets elsewhere were the Turbostars.

The Anglia mark 3 EMUs and the older mark 3 Intercities are pretty damn worn. The EMUs are about 25-35 years old, so on about your "30 year life span". The diesel fleet is a motley collection of units with notorious reliability issues.

When putting the bid for the franchise together Abellio will have looked at refurbishment, looked at cascades, etc. But clearly the best deal they got that met the goals of the franchise specification involved the total fleet replacement- including the 360s and 379s. Having unified fleets makes maintaining and diagramming the fleets much easier, reduces training of both traincrew and maintenance staff as well.

So that's also what will have gone on at First-MTR South West Railway. They've looked at the lease costs for the 707s and 458s, looked at the penalty clauses for ending the leases early, and got a deal which gives them a unified fleet for the SWML Suburbans, Windsor Lines and Reading line. Crucially, once they've paid any penalty break clauses, they really have no responsibility whatsoever regarding the fleets they displace.

 

[Bald Rick]

Re Anglia and not retaining the new fleets. They would have formed a relatively small part of the whole fleet by passenger capacity. The new fleet will be only two types of train, which makes maintenance and operation a whole lot easier and thus cheaper. Even things like driver training and competency management become a more more straightforward.

 

[TheEdge]

Re Anglia and not retaining the new fleets. They would have formed a relatively small part of the whole fleet by passenger capacity. The new fleet will be only two yes of train, which makes maintenance and operation a whole lot easier and thus cheaper. Even things like driver training and competency management become a more more straightforward.

That definitely applies to the 170s and 360s, nothing like enough of them to make any sense to keep them on. You may argue more convincingly the 379s could stay but even then it just means having to train and maintain on an extra fleet.

Future of the rest. Most of the Mk3s and 317s will probably find themselves on the scrapheap. The 321s might find homes up North, I'm expect the same will be said for the 153s and 156s, either with Northern or East Mids.

 

[F Great Eastern]

The 317s are finished without a doubt.

The MK3s might find charter work but nothing else, but then again there will be no shortage of MK3 and MK4 cars coming onto the market soon.

Personally I reckon the fact 21x 360 and 30x 379 becoming free and the other EMUs coming off lease elsewhere will mean a lot of the 321s will struggle to find work, especially the ones which have not been given heavy refurbishment.

Sure I think the Renatus ones might have a future but there is no way that there will be work for anything like 100 of them, nobody is going to pay to refurbish the other 70 properly or put them into service when there are hundreds of much younger, more comfortable cars in much better condition coming on the market at the same time

At the same time there'll be a batch of 170s and 185s being freed up which will likely see off the 156s. The 153s might live on on the basis that they have a unique feature - a car length which no other rolling stock has, but even then I can't see much demand for a one car DMU..

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Ryanair and EasyJet's business model is based on buying new planes and selling them on in about 5 years.
It keeps the planes mostly in warranty and at their most reliable, while there is still a good market for nearly-new 737s/320s. .
The railway model of buying new stock and running it till it finally falls apart 40 years later is now history, especially with interest rates at a record low.

The ROSCOs were gearing up for a major round of refurbishments up to a couple of years ago, to keep stock running and to meet modern legislation.
They have now dumped that policy for buying new.

That's for EMUs. Not quite so clear-cut for DMUs which are in short supply, but it's heading in the same direction with the Northern/GA orders.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Ryanair and EasyJet's business model is based on buying new planes and selling them on in about 5 years.
It keeps the planes mostly in warranty and at their most reliable, while there is still a good market for nearly-new 737s/320s. .

Ryanair Fleet isn't young anymore these days, the average age is a year or two over five years these days.

Ei-DAC is old, around 15 years now

http://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Ryanair-active-b737ng.htm

 

[TheEdge]

Personally I reckon the fact 21x 360 and 30x 379 becoming free and the other EMUs coming off lease elsewhere will mean the 321s will struggle to find work.

At the same time there'll be a batch of 170s and 185s being freed up which will likely see off the 156s.

The 153s might live on on the basis that they have a unique feature - a car length which no other rolling stock has, but won't get serious work.

The issue with the 360s is they are a small fleet by any measure and are of little use elsewhere at the moment. The lack of a gangway reduces their usefulness working with 350s (if they even can) and I guess they are probably incompatible with 380s. We may find that the 360 fleet from GA is merged with the 360s from HEX and then moved on as one, although even then its only 26 units which isn't an enourmous amount.

The 379s will find work no problem, don't doubt that, but they may only go to strengthen other Electrostar fleets which wont hurt the prospects of the 321s.

Northern, Scotrail and East Mids all have bigger 156s fleets than GA, the 156s will find their way there. The 170s will go and strengthen the many other 170 fleets around.

 

[F Great Eastern]

The issue with the 360s is they are a small fleet by any measure and are of little use elsewhere at the moment.

The lack of a gangway reduces their usefulness working with 350s (if they even can) and I guess they are probably incompatible with 380s. We may find that the 360 fleet from GA is merged with the 360s from HEX and then moved on as one, although even then its only 26 units which isn't an enourmous amount.

It might be a micro-fleet, but those units have stood up very well, you'd never think they are 14 years old, the build quality of them puts a hell of a lot of newer EMU stock to shame with virtually no rattles from them at all even to this day. It should have been a bigger fleet ideally, but the SRA put paid to that.

The 379s will find work no problem, don't doubt that, but they may only go to strengthen other Electrostar fleets which wont hurt the prospects of the 321s.

If you can find work for 100 321s, be my guest, I can't find it myself unless I start parking up much newer stock.

Northern, Scotrail and East Mids all have bigger 156s fleets than GA, the 156s will find their way there. The 170s will go and strengthen the many other 170 fleets around.

I just can't see work for every single 156 beyond 2020, because they'll either be replaced by new stock on order or cascades from electrification and trains being replaced by new stock will be cascaded.

Do you really think that there is enough demand for diesel stock to not need to withdraw anything in the next few years? There's going to be hundreds of carriages of modern DMUs coming available.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

The issue with the 360s is they are a small fleet by any measure and are of little use elsewhere at the moment. The lack of a gangway reduces their usefulness working with 350s (if they even can) and I guess they are probably incompatible with 380s. We may find that the 360 fleet from GA is merged with the 360s from HEX and then moved on as one, although even then its only 26 units which isn't an enourmous amount.

The 379s will find work no problem, don't doubt that, but they may only go to strengthen other Electrostar fleets which wont hurt the prospects of the 321s.

Northern, Scotrail and East Mids all have bigger 156s fleets than GA, the 156s will find their way there. The 170s will go and strengthen the many other 170 fleets around.

Does the console in the cab of a 360 go across the entire width of the cab?

 

[TheEdge]

I just can't see work for every single 156 beyond 2020, because they'll either be replaced by new stock on order or cascades from electrification and trains being replaced by new stock will be cascaded.

Do you really think that there is enough demand for diesel stock to not need to withdraw anything in the next few years? There's going to be hundreds of carriages of modern DMUs coming available.

Yes, DMUs are in huge demand, they fall foul of various emission regs which makes building new ones hard. The Scotrail and Northern fleets of 40+ 156s each are going nowhere, nor is the EMT fleet. To which of those they go, no idea. A lot of the new build stock and cascades going north and west is more to get rid of the Pacer fleets rather than Sprinters.

Electrification plans have hit a brick wall when it comes to funding. As to lots of modern DMUs coming available I'm not sure to what you refer. 22 185s are coming free, as far as I know the Clubman and Turbostar fleets are either not going anywhere or already earmarked (in small numbers) for their new homes.

153s will probably go for scrap unless they get reformed as 155s, which is unlikely.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Does the console in the cab of a 360 go across the entire width of the cab?

I can't remember what is where, I haven't been in one or seen one for many a year, but it curves just after the middle of the front of it, so there's no chance of putting a corridor connection in.

 

[F Great Eastern]

Electrification plans have hit a brick wall when it comes to funding. As to lots of modern DMUs coming available I'm not sure to what you refer. 22 185s are coming free, as far as I know the Clubman and Turbostar fleets are either not going anywhere or already earmarked (in small numbers) for their new homes.

Sorry - I had a momentarily brain fail and forgot that it was 66 cars of 185s coming free rather than 153, That changes everything in my calculations and for sure there will be homes for the 156s.

 

[D365]

Does the console in the cab of a 360 go across the entire width of the cab?

Looks like it, see here.

 

[edwin_m]

Ryanair and EasyJet's business model is based on buying new planes and selling them on in about 5 years.
It keeps the planes mostly in warranty and at their most reliable, while there is still a good market for nearly-new 737s/320s. .
The railway model of buying new stock and running it till it finally falls apart 40 years later is now history, especially with interest rates at a record low.

However if all franchises continue to buy new there won't be a good market for nearly new 379s and 707s so this model won't work on the railway. Perhaps it would if our trains could be sold on to Eastern Europe etc, but due to platform height that only works with locos.

At present the ROSCOs are the ones losing out, but they must be wise to that now as I posted earlier and any short leases of new stock are likely to have sky-high rentals.

 

[3141]

Ryanair and EasyJet's business model is based on buying new planes and selling them on in about 5 years.
It keeps the planes mostly in warranty and at their most reliable, while there is still a good market for nearly-new 737s/320s. .
The railway model of buying new stock and running it till it finally falls apart 40 years later is now history, especially with interest rates at a record low.

The ROSCOs were gearing up for a major round of refurbishments up to a couple of years ago, to keep stock running and to meet modern legislation.
They have now dumped that policy for buying new.

You've identified there a major difference. There is a world-wide market for "nearly-new 737s/320s", so the low-cost airlines know they can get a good price for their planes after five years. Or, if they lease them, the company that owns them knows it will be able to find other lessees when the first operator has finished with them.

But there's only one market for British railway passenger vehicles. In seven years' time the ROSCOs won't be able to afford a repeat of what's happening now at GA and, especially, South Western. No-one has a plan for what might happen to several hundred Aventras and a fairly large number of FLIRTS. If the DfT is still issuing invitations to tender that place a big emphasis on "quality" and define that as the provision of new trains, the ROSCOs couldn't afford big losses if the trains now being ordered had nowhere else to go, and they'd have to charge so highly to lease new stock that it would no longer be attractive to order it.

So although "the railway model of buying new stock and running it till it finally falls apart 40 years later is now history", it's likely to make a comeback a few years from now.

 

[physics34]

If you can find work for 100 321s, be my guest, I can't find it myself unless I start parking up much newer stock.

well, if the 319 FLEX programme is a success, im sure the 321s can have the same work done

 

[F Great Eastern]

well, if the 319 FLEX programme is a success, im sure the 321s can have the same work done

No ROSCO is going to spend money on heavy refurbishment for 321s right now beyond what has already been committed.

They'd be flushing money down the drain.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The issue with the 360s is they are a small fleet by any measure and are of little use elsewhere at the moment. The lack of a gangway reduces their usefulness working with 350s (if they even can) and I guess they are probably incompatible with 380s. We may find that the 360 fleet from GA is merged with the 360s from HEX and then moved on as one, although even then its only 26 units which isn't an enourmous amount.

They'd be fine for the WCML, rarely do people bother walking through the coaches, and you couldn't on the 321s and can't on the 319s. They'd be most welcome to allow the unreliable 319s to be dumped and more 12-car trains into and out of Euston in the peaks.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

I can't remember what is where, I haven't been in one or seen one for many a year, but it curves just after the middle of the front of it, so there's no chance of putting a corridor connection in.

Looks like it, see here.

Does the console in the cab of a 360 go across the entire width of the cab?

What would be a rough guess at the cost of rebuilding the cabs (per cab) with corridor connections (including replacement cabs for any 350, 444, 450 - iirc there's about half a dozen busted cabs between them classes).

Whether or not the 360s get new cabs built, why (apart from passenger capacity) would FirstMTR gone for the 442s instead of the 360s (after conversion to 3rd rail only)? iirc passengers weren't allowed to use the corridor connections of the 458/0s so having a corridor connection probably isn't 100% mandatory for SWTs

 

[class387]

What would be a rough guess at the cost of rebuilding the cabs (per cab) with corridor connections (including replacement cabs for any 350, 444, 450 - iirc there's about half a dozen busted cabs between them classes).

Whether or not the 360s get new cabs built, why (apart from passenger capacity) would FirstMTR gone for the 442s instead of the 360s (after conversion to 3rd rail only)? iirc passengers weren't allowed to use the corridor connections of the 458/0s so having a corridor connection probably isn't 100% mandatory for SWTs

I remember to have read that one of the main reasons why the SWT 170s were withdrawn were because they had no corridor connection, hence not allowing the guard or catering trolley to get through.

 

[Wivenswold]

There was a rumour back in 2005 that the Desiros on NXEA were going to be swapped with the LM 321s so I think it's possible they will end up somewhere on th WCML.
Especially considering they have fantastic acceleration.

It will be GAs loss, the 360s are superb trains.