Why so long to develop East - West Rail?

[THC]

The fundamental point is that I don't think they see any prospect of there being enough traffic north from Amersham to justify a through service to MK in the first place.

Interestingly enough, this is not quite true. In the labyrinthine approvals process for the Metropolitan line extension (née Croxley Rail Link), a letter from the DfT to the GLA of 30 March this year (see p18) states that, as a condition of DfT funding:

Transport for London will assess in good faith and agree with the Department... the viability of the infrastructure accepting the operation of national rail DMUs (Class 165, 168, 170 and 172 up to six-cars in length), recognising DfT and stakeholders have a longer term aspirations for a service of 2 train per hour from Watford Junction to Rickmansworth, Aylesbury (and beyond).

So, no further information on progress with this (which itself was subject to consultation with TfL) or timescales, but it is the first confirmation of official interest in i) services from Watford Junction northwards over the Croxley North Curve, and ii) National Rail services from Watford Junction to Aylesbury and potentially beyond.

THC

 

[67018]

Interestingly enough, this is not quite true. In the labyrinthine approvals process for the Metropolitan line extension (née Croxley Rail Link), a letter from the DfT to the GLA of 30 March this year (see p18) states that, as a condition of DfT funding:



So, no further information on progress with this (which itself was subject to consultation with TfL) or timescales, but it is the first confirmation of official interest in i) services from Watford Junction northwards over the Croxley North Curve, and ii) National Rail services from Watford Junction to Aylesbury and potentially beyond.

THC

What traffic flows would a service beyond Aylesbury serve though? I'd have thought that, if a service existed from Aylesbury to Watford Junction, it would be quicker to change there onto LM for Bletchley and MK rather than chugging along in the other direction on a relatively slow and infrequent service.

Can't see that (say) Rickmansworth to Winslow would generate much demand.

 

[jimm]

Interestingly enough, this is not quite true. In the labyrinthine approvals process for the Metropolitan line extension (née Croxley Rail Link), a letter from the DfT to the GLA of 30 March this year (see p18) states that, as a condition of DfT funding:



So, no further information on progress with this (which itself was subject to consultation with TfL) or timescales, but it is the first confirmation of official interest in i) services from Watford Junction northwards over the Croxley North Curve, and ii) National Rail services from Watford Junction to Aylesbury and potentially beyond.

THC

While I can see the desirability of better connecting Watford with the likes of Rickmansworth and Amersham, I am struggling to see where the demand for northward travel is supposed to be coming from. If there was a reliable link to Watford, then that is the obvious place for people from those parts of Bucks and Herts to be making connections for the north, rather than sitting on a train that stops everywhere to Aylesbury, then serves nowhere apart from Winslow (and perhaps Claydon) until it reaches Bletchley. If a south to west curve could be built at Calvert, so trains could go from Aylesbury to Bicester and Oxford, that would be a different matter.

 

[NickBucks]

While I can see the desirability of better connecting Watford with the likes of Rickmansworth and Amersham, I am struggling to see where the demand for northward travel is supposed to be coming from. If there was a reliable link to Watford, then that is the obvious place for people from those parts of Bucks and Herts to be making connections for the north, rather than sitting on a train that stops everywhere to Aylesbury, then serves nowhere apart from Winslow (and perhaps Claydon) until it reaches Bletchley. If a south to west curve could be built at Calvert, so trains could go from Aylesbury to Bicester and Oxford, that would be a different matter.

Agree very much with this.Chiltern is making much of the Oxford service but this is of no use to customers from Amersham & stations north to Aylesbury. From Aylesbury at least it will require changing at either High Wycombe, Princes Risborough or Haddenham & Thame. Currently the Arriva bus from Aylesbury to Oxford is a quicker option. A curve onto the East-West line at Calvert could open a number of possibilities. Euston > Watford> Aylesbury> Oxford for example would provide competition for First Great Western or whoever is running the franchise in x years time and save time getting across London on LUL. Nice to have but current passenger numbers north of Amersham would count against it. Topic for another thread perhaps but I do wonder what proposals Chiltern will include in their bid for franchise renewal on the Marylebone > Aylesbury line via Amersham

 

[THC]

Inclined to agree with the scepticism but that fact that a service from WJ north of Aylesbury is a stated aspiration of the DfT - which, after all, would actually be the primary funder - leads me to believe that there is something in it. My guess it's to do with growth in the MKSM area, with additional housing development at, inter alia, west MK, Winslow and Aylesbury the price of EWR and other infrastructure developments.

Of course, the current government doesn't want to be seen to interfere with the market through such top-down strategic planning so, rather than central direction, it'll continue to bribe/entice local authorities through funding levers like the New Homes Bonus and LAs and LEPs through others including business rates growth retention.

THC

 

[richieb1971]

Its not just the building of the line taking a long time, its simply everything. Even simple stuff like news of timelines (which are changing but nobody is committing to anything). Its a shame that NR is committed to other projects at the same time as this one but I still think that NR should pencil in when they think they are getting round to it.

The reason they do not commit is simple, they don't think they will meet any targets they set for themselves so say nothing at all.

Does anyone even know where the Bletchley platforms are going?

 

[The Planner]

No, because it is still in GRIP 2/3 so a single option is not decided. There is nothing unusual in that at all.

 

[richieb1971]

The public of which I am part of does not understand anything GRIP related. You can GRIP 2 and 3 all you like, the fact is that many years have passed and nothing on the ground is being done. If it takes years and years to pass early GRIP stages it begs the question of what takes longer? The planning or the execution?

 

[DarloRich]

The public of which I am part of does not understand anything GRIP related. You can GRIP 2 and 3 all you like, the fact is that many years have passed and nothing on the ground is being done. If it takes years and years to pass early GRIP stages it begs the question of what takes longer? The planning or the execution?

why not try and research things then? Lots of information on the net. I cant be bothered to try and explain the reasons for the timescales/activites to you again as you don't want to know

 

[route:oxford]

From Aylesbury at least it will require changing at either High Wycombe, Princes Risborough or Haddenham & Thame. Currently the Arriva bus from Aylesbury to Oxford is a quicker option. A curve onto the East-West line at Calvert could open a number of possibilities.

Once E-W opens, surely Aylesbury people have two main choices to route to Oxford...

Change at Winslow
Change at Princes Risborough

It'll just depend on the connections for the moment they choose to travel - although I'd be inclined to thing that the Winslow route will be the quicker connection.

I've used the Arriva service in the past - it took around 100 minutes in the evening peak to get back into Central Oxford. The journey through Haddenham was a wildly uncomfortable experience.

I found it quicker to Aylesbury-Princes Risborough then either.

Princes Risborough-Bicester North-Bicester Town-Oxford
or
Princes Risborough-Banbury-Oxford

 

[The Planner]

The planning always takes longer, find me an infrastructure project where it doesn't?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

A curve onto the East-West line at Calvert could open a number of possibilities. Euston > Watford> Aylesbury> Oxford for example would provide competition for First Great Western or whoever is running the franchise in x years time and save time getting across London on LUL. Nice to have but current passenger numbers north of Amersham would count against it. Topic for another thread perhaps but I do wonder what proposals Chiltern will include in their bid for franchise renewal on the Marylebone > Aylesbury line via Amersham

That would take forever as a journey and no one would use it. You will never get a South-West curve at Calvert as HS2 will preclude it.

 

[HowardGWR]

The planning always takes longer, find me an infrastructure project where it doesn't?

I think where richieb1971 was getting at is that a cynical view would be that, just as the law is for the lawyers, planning is for the planners. We have so many people nowadays who are higher educated, they have to be found jobs to do or they will find the need for such jobs themselves. I was involved in environmental activism for some years and became very aware of standards being created that chiefly served those who investigated whether they were being adhered to. I didn't mind at all, as this stuff suited my purpose in delaying unwanted projects, sometimes terminating them. Thank goodness great crested newts are found everywhere, as are bats.

 

[jimm]

Once E-W opens, surely Aylesbury people have two main choices to route to Oxford...

Change at Winslow
Change at Princes Risborough

It'll just depend on the connections for the moment they choose to travel - although I'd be inclined to thing that the Winslow route will be the quicker connection.

I've used the Arriva service in the past - it took around 100 minutes in the evening peak to get back into Central Oxford. The journey through Haddenham was a wildly uncomfortable experience.

I found it quicker to Aylesbury-Princes Risborough then either.

Princes Risborough-Bicester North-Bicester Town-Oxford
or
Princes Risborough-Banbury-Oxford

All very well but the discussion was in the context of what you would do with a train service coming up from the Amersham direction and whether anyone might use such a thing to Milton Keynes given that if the idea is to link Amersham and points south to Watford at the same time, ie a place offering more and faster services to MK, that would be a more enticing option than a tour of the Buckinghamshire countryside.

I threw in Oxford as somewhere that might have more appeal to Amersham etc as a destination than MK via such a scenic tour if a via Watford option will also be there. And just how many trains per hour would be needed between Aylesbury and MK? Why not send some to Bicester and Oxford as well?

That would take forever as a journey and no one would use it. You will never get a South-West curve at Calvert as HS2 will preclude it.

Why not? Chuck enough money at it and anything is possible. The future arrangements for East-West and HS2 at Calvert are clearly a key issue still to be settled anyway and if you want to get the maximum benefit out of it all, then things like a south to west chord here surely ought to be considered at this point, not as an afterthought when it would end up being a lot harder to deliver and at a far greater cost.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I think where richieb1971 was getting at is that a cynical view would be that, just as the law is for the lawyers, planning is for the planners. We have so many people nowadays who are higher educated, they have to be found jobs to do or they will find the need for such jobs themselves. I was involved in environmental activism for some years and became very aware of standards being created that chiefly served those who investigated whether they were being adhered to. I didn't mind at all, as this stuff suited my purpose in delaying unwanted projects, sometimes terminating them. Thank goodness great crested newts are found everywhere, as are bats.

Yes but as DarloRich says, copious information about what is going on is there for all to see - if they can be bothered to look. And I don't call a systematic vegetation clearance effort nothing happening on the ground. Without which the surveyors could not get a proper look at things to see what work is needed, so that information can be fed into the planning process for the project.

 

[mr_jrt]

You will never get a South-West curve at Calvert as HS2 will preclude it.

Nonsense.

A fully curved bridge might prove a bit too expensive/complex, but branching off a bit further south, having a simple straight bridge over HS2 and then curving around westwards would be quite feasible. EWR is already proposed to run over HS2 on a bridge, so raising the Calvert chord when it is realigned means you could just do things that way anyway by just raising a bit more of the railway.

 

[richieb1971]

why not try and research things then? Lots of information on the net. I cant be bothered to try and explain the reasons for the timescales/activites to you again as you don't want to know

What I want to know and what the public wants to know is how come there is so much information about EWR on the net for years, and nothing to show for it.

Its like a videogame or a movie being announced 8 years before its going to be released. Wouldn't you be dissatisfied if you heard of EWR in 2008 and in 2015 there is still nothing to show for it except GRIP this and that?

I do understand perfectly that planning needs to be done and that the industry has this systematic approach that takes time. But I also believe the announcement to open a railway should be done about 6 months before work on the ground starts, not 6 years.

 

[The Planner]

Nonsense.

A fully curved bridge might prove a bit too expensive/complex, but branching off a bit further south, having a simple straight bridge over HS2 and then curving around westwards would be quite feasible. EWR is already proposed to run over HS2 on a bridge, so raising the Calvert chord when it is realigned means you could just do things that way anyway by just raising a bit more of the railway.

You will need to explain that one as I am not sure how that is going to work. HS2 is parallel with EWR from around Quainton to south of Calvert where the existing line starts getting shifted to the right by up to 50m and the FCC sidings swap sides of the railway. Where you could you go over with a straight bridge? (all very academic anyway as after checking last night, a chord has already been discounted from rumours I hear.)
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

What I want to know and what the public wants to know is how come there is so much information about EWR on the net for years, and nothing to show for it.

Its like a videogame or a movie being announced 8 years before its going to be released. Wouldn't you be dissatisfied if you heard of EWR in 2008 and in 2015 there is still nothing to show for it except GRIP this and that?

I do understand perfectly that planning needs to be done and that the industry has this systematic approach that takes time. But I also believe the announcement to open a railway should be done about 6 months before work on the ground starts, not 6 years.

Why is that any different to say Northern Hub, HS2, Portishead, Electric Spine, any new road etc?? As for announcing it 6 months before, people would be asking questions long before that as public enquiries, consultations have to happen.

 

[DarloRich]

What I want to know and what the public wants to know is how come there is so much information about EWR on the net for years, and nothing to show for it.

Its like a videogame or a movie being announced 8 years before its going to be released. Wouldn't you be dissatisfied if you heard of EWR in 2008 and in 2015 there is still nothing to show for it except GRIP this and that?

I do understand perfectly that planning needs to be done and that the industry has this systematic approach that takes time. But I also believe the announcement to open a railway should be done about 6 months before work on the ground starts, not 6 years.

no you don't understand and i don't think you want to understand. Your idea seems to suggest that within 6 months you can:

1. obtain all of the necessary statutory consents and deal with the inevitable public enquirers and planning delays
2. undertake the large number of public consultations legally required
3. Survey the route for environmental issues ( bats/newts/knotweed etc)
4. clear the proposed route of all the detritus and vegetation ( obviously understanding the time periods when this work can take place)
5. without disturbing the various animals and plants life cycle
6. decide on the route (having considered the public response)
7. deal with any scope or remit changes ( meaning you might have to do some of the above again)
8. survey the route for construction and engineering purposes
9. design the route, all track work, signalling, ohle, utilities etc etc,
10. undertake surveys of all structures ( including all embankments, cuttings, bridges, under track crossings etc etc) on the line and asses the condition and where not good enough devise restoration plans or propose new structures)
11. mitigate any crossings, (obtained all of the statutory requirements to move them/ build bridges - each on of those requiring consultation etc)
12. obtain all of the finance (including from several, independent third parties with their own financial governance process to satisfy) which may nee dot be agreed several years out to cover all of the phases of work or issued piecemeal per phase
13. advise all stakeholders of the impact of the coming work and develop and implement mitigation and communication plans
14. contract
15. plan & resource allocate and order materials and equipment
16. mobilise
17. start work

etc etc etc

yeah six months is about right for all that :roll:

 

[67018]

The planning always takes longer, find me an infrastructure project where it doesn't?

It's true of pretty much *any* well run project, infrastructure or otherwise. There are plenty of examples out there of projects that have failed due to inadequate planning and/or design - and plenty of exasperated project managers who have been asked 'why does it have to take so long?', followed inevitably by 'why did the whole thing fail to work/go massively over budget/spend 5 years clearing up the mess?'

Its like a videogame or a movie being announced 8 years before its going to be released. Wouldn't you be dissatisfied if you heard of EWR in 2008 and in 2015 there is still nothing to show for it except GRIP this and that?

No. It's really not. Building a railway has virtually nothing in common with making a video game or movie.

 

[trainplan1]

no you don't understand and i don't think you want to understand. Your idea seems to suggest that within 6 months you can:

1. obtain all of the necessary statutory consents and deal with the inevitable public enquirers and planning delays
2. undertake the large number of public consultations legally required
3. Survey the route for environmental issues ( bats/newts/knotweed etc)
4. clear the proposed route of all the detritus and vegetation ( obviously understanding the time periods when this work can take place)
5. without disturbing the various animals and plants life cycle
6. decide on the route (having considered the public response)
7. deal with any scope or remit changes ( meaning you might have to do some of the above again)
8. survey the route for construction and engineering purposes
9. design the route, all track work, signalling, ohle, utilities etc etc,
10. undertake surveys of all structures ( including all embankments, cuttings, bridges, under track crossings etc etc) on the line and asses the condition and where not good enough devise restoration plans or propose new structures)
11. mitigate any crossings, (obtained all of the statutory requirements to move them/ build bridges - each on of those requiring consultation etc)
12. obtain all of the finance (including from several, independent third parties with their own financial governance process to satisfy) which may nee dot be agreed several years out to cover all of the phases of work or issued piecemeal per phase
13. advise all stakeholders of the impact of the coming work and develop and implement mitigation and communication plans
14. contract
15. plan & resource allocate and order materials and equipment
16. mobilise
17. start work

18. contractor discovers issues, blames NR
19. NR unable to meet promised timescales, blames contractor
20. public get wind of issues, blames dft
21. Government pauses project on "spending review"
22. contractor replaced, NR/dft issue statement saying everything's back on track
23. contractor no.2 discovers issues, blames previous contractor
24. NR take responsibility for project
25. public take to internet to complain, usually followed by (back in BR days rant)
26. commissioning works
27. test trains on route
28. line opens unofficially
29. royals/VIP open line officially
30. route opens way behind schedule

 

[richieb1971]

Its you guys who don't understand me. We have a structure where a planned route is advertised 10 years in advance of its 1st day of service. And even those 10 years isn't enough.

That is what the OP is talking about. I am guessing the people in charge of the project are getting paid regardless of what work is being done?

 

[DarloRich]

18. contractor discovers issues, blames NR
19. NR unable to meet promised timescales, blames contractor
20. public get wind of issues, blames dft
21. Government pauses project on "spending review"
22. contractor replaced, NR/dft issue statement saying everything's back on track
23. contractor no.2 discovers issues, blames previous contractor
24. NR take responsibility for project
25. public take to internet to complain, usually followed by (back in BR days rant)
26. commissioning works
27. test trains on route
28. line opens unofficially
29. royals/VIP open line officially
30. route opens way behind schedule

no one said we were looking at AFTER the commencement of works
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Its you guys who don't understand me. We have a structure where a planned route is advertised 10 years in advance of its 1st day of service. And even those 10 years isn't enough.

That is what the OP is talking about. I am guessing the people in charge of the project are getting paid regardless of what work is being done?

:roll: you don't really grasp any of this do you?

 

[trainplan1]

no one said we were looking at AFTER the commencement of works

Oh certainly, just thinking of the possible prospects for projects like this while we're on the subject of time taken...

 

[CdBrux]

Its you guys who don't understand me. We have a structure where a planned route is advertised 10 years in advance of its 1st day of service. And even those 10 years isn't enough.

That is what the OP is talking about. I am guessing the people in charge of the project are getting paid regardless of what work is being done?

What do you mean by advertised? Do you mean someone starts a campaign or that money is funded for a feasability study?

 

[67018]

Its you guys who don't understand me. We have a structure where a planned route is advertised 10 years in advance of its 1st day of service. And even those 10 years isn't enough.

That is what the OP is talking about. I am guessing the people in charge of the project are getting paid regardless of what work is being done?

Where's anything being 'advertised' though? I've not seen any adverts, timetables or anything that implies a service is available any time soon.

It's being 'publicised', which is something different, and is for good reasons. Firstly, the public need to know about something this big so that they can comment on it, engage in the consultation and understand how will it affect them. (Some people in Bicester are moaning about the potential closure of London Road level crossing in 2019 - imagine what they would say if they were given 6 months notice!).

Secondly, politicians giving the go-ahead for large investments naturally want to get some credit for it - which is why things tend to get 'announced' more than once. Any politician who thinks it's a good idea to wait to mention what they are doing till after the next election will find themselves out of a job pretty soon.

 

[MarkRedon]

The planners inside Network Rail are now responding to a much increased scope demanded by the Department of Transport. Originally, people were proposing a Bletchley to Bicester reopening and scratching their heads about if Cambridge could be reached at all. Now, on the back of the electric spine (pun intended), we have a proposal for a new strategic electrified railway joining West and East bypassing London, and linking together all the radial northbound mainlines. The DfT sees this as a way of joining together the golden triangle of London, Oxford and Cambridge.

This is one of the most exciting railway projects in Britain in decades!

So of course they are doing their planning very carefully. If we look at the available documents carefully we can see that firstly they did a demand analysis to establish where to build a new strategic railway - looking at places like Luton, Bedford, Hitchen, Stevenage (but insufficiently at Stansted...) – then they came up with seven options, then they whittled it down to 2 choices: via Hitchin and via Sandy. Only now can they start to try and find routes between Cambridge and Bedford which are viable, realisable and affordable. And this is by no means easy. We know for example that connecting to any Bedford station is going to be tricky – see all the well informed discussion earlier in this thread.

Nor can this railway be all things to all people. Recall that the original justification for the closure of the Varsity line included the fact that it was quicker to get from Cambridge to Oxford via London than via Bicester (change trains!). At least some of the trains need to be through trains and offer frequent, faster transits than the motorway network.

So it may take a little bit longer before the planners come up with a route which they know they can defend against certain strong attack from many potential opponents. And whatever they come up with has to be acceptable to the government and to the Treasury. We do just have to give them time, and maybe to respond to them now that they have asked the public for their comments.

 

[jimm]

Its you guys who don't understand me. We have a structure where a planned route is advertised 10 years in advance of its 1st day of service. And even those 10 years isn't enough.

That is what the OP is talking about. I am guessing the people in charge of the project are getting paid regardless of what work is being done?

Well on the basis that this reopening has been seriously talked about since the mid-1980s when BR was preparing to reinstate Oxford-Bicester trains and the East West consortium was formed by councils 20 years ago, it has been 'advertised' for a lot longer than 10 years.

What do you mean by 'regardless of what work is being done'? It's not all about men and machines on the ground. Chiltern announced the Evergreen3 plan for Oxford services in August 2008. It is just about to start running trains. Are you going to slaughter them as well for 'advertising' the idea seven years ago, rather than this February? A lot of people did a lot of work in the intervening period.

Previously you told us there was 'nothing to show' for all the talk about East West - what do you think Bicester-Oxford is? The 100mph double track railway there is directly related to East West. Chiltern's plan only needed partial redoubling.

 

[DarloRich]

plus it is incorrect to state that nothing has been done: phase one will soon be open

 

[richieb1971]

So since you guys all know a lot more about this than me, can you please tell me when realistically you see a Bedford-Oxford service up and running?

Thats all people want to know.

 

[The Planner]

2019 if the Hendy review doesnt delay it. So basically when they said it would.

 

[67018]

So since you guys all know a lot more about this than me, can you please tell me when realistically you see a Bedford-Oxford service up and running?

Thats all people want to know.

There are two answers to that question. There's the official plan from EWR (see the FAQs on their website):

Q: What are the timescales for delivery of the Western Section?

A: Network Rail is tasked with delivery of the scheme as proposed by the Consortium in its prospectus published in November 2011. The funding for the scheme is identified within the 2014-2019 railway funding control period 5.

Over and above the Consortium’s original proposal, the Department for Transport has requested further enhancements to the line including electrification between Oxford and Bedford. Network Rail is currently working with the DfT, Consortium and representatives of the wider rail industry to establish future needs to deliver the route capability required to accommodate them. Network Rail is aiming to have the line ready for trains to start operating by March 2019, for services between Bedford and Oxford, Milton Keynes and Aylesbury. The line will be electrified between Oxford and Bletchley at the same time.

Then there's personal opinion where you may get different answers. As far as I can see, there's a moderately high risk that the stated 2019 date might slip back due to the number of existing schemes that are behind schedule, the possibility of objections arising from the public consultation process, the million and one things that can go wrong during construction, political interference etc. etc.

On the other hand, getting it open just before the next election has a clear appeal to the government...