• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

Why is the railway so pressed for capacity?

Status
Not open for further replies.

Ianno87

Veteran Member
Joined
3 May 2015
Messages
15,214
Put it in a siding.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


.

The key word in my post was "productively".

Operators don't pay for investment in fancy brand new electric rolling stock to leave it in a siding all day. The 350s were specifically bought to make some money out of the Manchester-Scotland market (pretty neglected by previous operators).
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,389
Location
Yorks
Going into the future, I feel that the best thing we could do now is to make sure that a selection of the better redundant rolling stock is always stored, rather than disposed of, so that there is always a pool of additional stock to fall back on should the need arise.
 

a_c_skinner

Established Member
Joined
21 Jun 2013
Messages
1,700
So in fact the whole privatisation thing is in part a sham because the DfT and treasury are in command as the financial last resort and are risk averse.

I suppose one thing it says is longer franchises would have merit like Chiltern, but I seem to recall VWC offering ages ago to lengthen the Pendolinos at their own cost for a modest extension and the DfT saying no. Ironically the franchise has run well past Virgin's requested extension.

TPE won't have a problem with idle stock because my observations suggest they are busy all the time. Predictions of passenger numbers seem always pessimistic, is there no way to take in to account ridership being limited by crowding which would plainly make lots of assumptions different.

Is there no way out of this fix, where platforms are short for longer trains, paths need investment in signals and track but that isn't going to happen because there are not the trains to use the paths because we cannot buy trains if there are no paths.

I know Northern is planning on nearly 40% more seats in a few years time but it looks to me as if that won't be as lavish as it seems at first sight. The Pacers are going as a political promise unrelated to anything but votes, a bit like the 7 day NHS.

Andrew
 

Shaw S Hunter

Established Member
Joined
21 Apr 2016
Messages
3,497
Location
Over The Hill
So in fact the whole privatisation thing is in part a sham because the DfT and treasury are in command as the financial last resort and are risk averse.

Yes ironic isn't it?!

The Pacers are going as a political promise unrelated to anything but votes, a bit like the 7 day NHS.

I don't think that is a fair comment at all. The Pacers are going because the cost of making them all PRM TSI compatible is prohibitive. "Access for All" should be an essential part of all public policy in a progressive society and completely independent of political whim.
 

a_c_skinner

Established Member
Joined
21 Jun 2013
Messages
1,700
Fair enough, but the 7 day NHS is something people would like but it is politics that has given the plan legs and there was a lot in the NW news around the election about the "hated Pacers".
 

coppercapped

Established Member
Joined
13 Sep 2015
Messages
3,334
Location
Reading
With apologies if this has been done to death before.

This isn't a stupid "disgusted of Kendal" question. Yesterday I was on a Transpennine Scotland to Manchester Airport in the mid morning. 4 vehicles. 350. Like a lot of these trains it was very full and standing. All the stops it made could accommodate more length. Rail roving I saw a lot of TPE services, all very full. Actually a lot of the Northern trains I took were well loaded too at peak times, only a late night Pendolino was moving a lot of empty seats.

Am I right that the DfT has the final vote on how much rolling stock is in use?

Yes, sort of. As Shaw S Hunter stated in an earlier post, taken as a whole the railways need financial support from the taxpayer as expenditure exceeds income. The franchising process enables Government funding to be supplied to groups of services operated by a particular TOC. The TOC has been granted a licence to operate the service level specified by the DfT using a train fleet the size and cost of which has been agreed in the negotiation. If the TOC wants to increase the fleet size and to do this requires an increased subsidy (or reduced premium) the DfT will say 'No'. However there is nothing to stop the TOC taking on more stock if it can operate an increased service commercially - i.e., profitably - on its own account, the increased service will have no effect on the economics of the franchised services and it can persuade the ORR to grant it the paths.

Didn't TPE want 4 car 185s is is that an urban myth?

No, it is true. But the reason it didn't lengthen its trains was that, as explained above, it would have affected the subsidy. And TPE requires taxpayers' money to operate the service it does.

For TPE it isn't that trains are full at peak times and empty at others. It is pretty clear to me that a lot of the time passenger numbers are limited by capacity. Are the economics so complex to make more rolling stock unaffordable or do the projections not include an assumption that more seats will mean more passengers.

If the income from the extra passengers exceeds the extra costs of operation, then there is no reason why it should not be done. Negotiations to re-jig a franchise are time consuming and in view of the limited staffing in the DfT it is understandable - but not ideal - that such capacity increases will be part and parcel of the negotiations for the next franchise.

I know some parts of the UK have platform length limited and track capacity full but that isn't the case in a lot of places. Is it time for a "save the Pacers" campaign? I'd sooner sit on a Pacer than stand on a 185 (yes I know they are slower and so use more track capacity...)

Each one to his taste...!

Perhaps this is a stupid question.

No it isn't. It goes to the heart of the question of how to finance and organise the railways.
 

3141

Established Member
Joined
1 Apr 2012
Messages
2,122
Location
Whitchurch, Hampshire
Primarily the obsession for buying new trains without any consideration for growth through the full life of the unit. The network is littered with dozens of micro fleets that can't be lengthened or joined with through corridors, have specific functions that make them difficult to cascade... the 185s, 22xs, 442s, 360s all spring to mind as short sighted thinking - the 158s and Electrostar fleets strike me as great examples of forward thinking where units can be joined up without detriment. Hopefully this new age of AT300s, Desiro City and Aventra, plus Northerns CAF fleet will help in the future, yet we are still seeing short term thinking, with the cobbled together oddness that is loco hauled on TPE !

I think 442s were compatible with 4CIGs and 4VEPs, but became an isolated fleet when the slam-door stock was withdrawn. They were suitable for the route they were designed for, but it was unfortunate for them that when more stock (class 444) was ordered for that route, to a similar layout, it was electrically quite different - though compatible with the large fleet of 450s ordered at the same time.

Class 170s are compatible, or were, when they were introduced, with most of the existing BR DMUs except classes 165/166.

One relevant issue is that if you had, for instance, a two-car unit and you added a third coach to relieve overcrowding, you'd incur 50% more leasing costs and extra track access charges, but no extra revenue to start with. That's not necessarily an argument against private ownership, because even in a state-owned system they'd have to take account of the costs of building extra carriages and meeting the debt payments on them over the next thirty years.

As others have pointed out, passenger numbers have doubled but rolling stock hasn't, and I entirely agree with the poster who argued for retaining stock that has been replaced. But in many cases that's what we've done: LM's 321s and 150s went elsewhere, Virgin's withdrawn HSTs were reused, mark 3 coaches have mostly been reused by being inserted into HST sets. Maybe Greater Anglia's 321s and surplus 365s from GTR will prove an exception.
 

SpacePhoenix

Established Member
Joined
18 Mar 2014
Messages
5,491
I think 442s were compatible with 4CIGs and 4VEPs, but became an isolated fleet when the slam-door stock was withdrawn. They were suitable for the route they were designed for, but it was unfortunate for them that when more stock (class 444) was ordered for that route, to a similar layout, it was electrically quite different - though compatible with the large fleet of 450s ordered at the same time.

Class 170s are compatible, or were, when they were introduced, with most of the existing BR DMUs except classes 165/166.

One relevant issue is that if you had, for instance, a two-car unit and you added a third coach to relieve overcrowding, you'd incur 50% more leasing costs and extra track access charges, but no extra revenue to start with. That's not necessarily an argument against private ownership, because even in a state-owned system they'd have to take account of the costs of building extra carriages and meeting the debt payments on them over the next thirty years.

As others have pointed out, passenger numbers have doubled but rolling stock hasn't, and I entirely agree with the poster who argued for retaining stock that has been replaced. But in many cases that's what we've done: LM's 321s and 150s went elsewhere, Virgin's withdrawn HSTs were reused, mark 3 coaches have mostly been reused by being inserted into HST sets. Maybe Greater Anglia's 321s and surplus 365s from GTR will prove an exception.

I think they could operate with any of the corridor slam door stock that was used by SWT and Connex. At the time that the 444s were introduced would the class 442 design (excluding the traction package) have fallen foul of many regs if a new batch had been built?

The surplus 365 i feel should goto SouthEastern to allow them to strengthen services
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
35,897
No one has mentioned price regulation since 1994.

When BR had a capacity problem, it just put the fares up well above inflation. See NSE from 1986-1990.

(Of course, it's not quite that simple these days!).
 

Bletchleyite

Veteran Member
Joined
20 Oct 2014
Messages
113,691
Location
"Marston Vale mafia"
Even for class 380s?

Don't know about those, sorry, they may well be automated in some way.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
The key word in my post was "productively".

I know, and the idea that you have to use stock for every minute of the day is a fallacy provided the fares income at busy times cover its provision. London commuter operators have vast quantities of rolling stock, mostly newish, most of which is not used outside the peaks.

FWIW, London Midland's lease deals on the 350s take into account off-peak downtime - they effectively pay per unit mile, AIUI, in some kind of banded fashion. If TPE failed to negotiate such a lease, more fool them.

The other option is to run 6 cars anyway and price-dump some Advance fares, but that can take away from those paying for more expensive tickets, so you have to be careful. VT certainly take the line that they make more money off high fares and lots of empty seats than low fares and full trains - so I'd imagine if the Pendolinos were made up of multiple units they'd happily dump some in sidings at times.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
No one has mentioned price regulation since 1994.

When BR had a capacity problem, it just put the fares up well above inflation. See NSE from 1986-1990.

(Of course, it's not quite that simple these days!).

True. FWIW, much as I like them, the walk-up off-peak fares are a massive barrier to any kind of fares-related innovation to control demand, as while they aren't low they also aren't prohibitive to most passengers, especially when accompanied by a Railcard.

Personally, I think a fares basket including peak, off-peak, Advance and seasons should be regulated rather than a single specific fare.
 
Last edited:

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
35,897
London commuter operators have vast quantities of rolling stock, mostly newish, most of which is not used outside the peaks.

Pedantically, most of the stock operated by London commuter operators is very much used throughout the working day.

I don't have figures to hand, but I would be surprised if more than 20% of available rolling stock (as in not in maintenance etc) is in sidings between the peaks.
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,389
Location
Yorks
No one has mentioned price regulation since 1994.

When BR had a capacity problem, it just put the fares up well above inflation. See NSE from 1986-1990.

(Of course, it's not quite that simple these days!).

Incidentally, one of the issues which had hampered NSE in responding more positively during this period, was an earlier drive to reduce rolling stock levels (some of which might have helped with capacity).
 

Bald Rick

Veteran Member
Joined
28 Sep 2010
Messages
35,897
Incidentally, one of the issues which had hampered NSE in responding more positively during this period, was an earlier drive to reduce rolling stock levels (some of which might have helped with capacity).

Agreed.

So what did they do when growth stalled in 1990, income dropped and the budgets had to be met?

That's right, scrap more trains and put up fares!
 

tbtc

Veteran Member
Joined
16 Dec 2008
Messages
18,060
Location
Reston City Centre
So in fact the whole privatisation thing is in part a sham because the DfT and treasury are in command as the financial last resort and are risk averse

This tends to be the elephant in the room of the "Nationalisation would make everything better" threads.

I suppose one thing it says is longer franchises would have merit like Chiltern

It's worked well with Chiltern, but there was clear growth on that corridor (just to bring services up to broadly comparable with where parallel London commuter routes were at the time, not even taking future growth into account) plus the chance to undercut Birmingham - London fares.

The problem is, if you get a franchise that isn't set up for such growth, you end up with problems like the current Wales & Borders franchise, where the WAG have to get their chequebook out every time they want the TOC to make improvements - and Arriva can effectively name their price for such things.

Would you want to see some TOCs get a twenty year franchise? Great if Chiltern, but maybe less so if National Express East Anglia or Connex South Central?

I'm not automatically against longer franchises, but they aren't the magic bullet that some assume.

Class 170s are compatible, or were, when they were introduced, with most of the existing BR DMUs except classes 165/166

Would it have worked if we'd insisted that all post-privatisation DMUs could work with a benchmark BR unit (e.g. it must compatible with a 150)?

One relevant issue is that if you had, for instance, a two-car unit and you added a third coach to relieve overcrowding, you'd incur 50% more leasing costs and extra track access charges, but no extra revenue to start with

Aye, you'd end up with a 50% increase in many costs just so that standing passengers can all get a seat. Hard to justify, unless you know that you'll grow numbers significantly beyond that.

As others have pointed out, passenger numbers have doubled but rolling stock hasn't, and I entirely agree with the poster who argued for retaining stock that has been replaced. But in many cases that's what we've done: LM's 321s and 150s went elsewhere, Virgin's withdrawn HSTs were reused, mark 3 coaches have mostly been reused by being inserted into HST sets. Maybe Greater Anglia's 321s and surplus 365s from GTR will prove an exception.

I'm struggling to think of much useful stock that we've withdrawn since privatisation (other than arguments about freight locos).

The 321/ 365s etc could be the first test of this.

No one has mentioned price regulation since 1994.

When BR had a capacity problem, it just put the fares up well above inflation. See NSE from 1986-1990.

(Of course, it's not quite that simple these days!).

That'd be eye opening for posters too young to remember such days, who describe an increase of 1% above RPI as "price gouging".

Going into the future, I feel that the best thing we could do now is to make sure that a selection of the better redundant rolling stock is always stored, rather than disposed of, so that there is always a pool of additional stock to fall back on should the need arise.

I appreciate the nostalgia, but I don't think we've scraped much that had any realistic life left in it - if we are going to have an accessible railway from 1 January 2020 then how much money are we going to spend on upgrading redundant stock for a pool of "just in case" trains sitting around in sidings most of the time? It may well be cheaper just to buy lighter modern trains (with regenerative breaking etc) if we want more.

Plus, there's always 230s...
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,389
Location
Yorks
I appreciate the nostalgia, but I don't think we've scraped much that had any realistic life left in it - if we are going to have an accessible railway from 1 January 2020 then how much money are we going to spend on upgrading redundant stock for a pool of "just in case" trains sitting around in sidings most of the time? It may well be cheaper just to buy lighter modern trains (with regenerative breaking etc) if we want more.

Plus, there's always 230s...

It may be cheaper, it may not. There's certainly no harm in keeping some of the best of what's been withdrawn at Long Marston or Shoeburyness for a while.

It turned out to have been fortunate not to have scrapped all the mk3's when they became redundant from the WCML (though I know you love nostalgia).
 

infobleep

On Moderation
Joined
27 Feb 2011
Messages
13,453
I believe I have made the following point elsewhere on the forum but it bears repeating: the national rail network in this country loses money when taken as a whole. That loss is made up by subsidy from public funds. Of course the detail of the financial balance varies greatly across the network but the basic fact still stands. It is also possible to argue that any increase in the "size" of this loss-making railway, whether in infrastructure or passenger-carrying capacity, runs the risk of making that loss worse. This leads to any proposal for such an increase being subject to a rather complex evaluation to test its value for money, often expressed as BCR (Business Case Return). Given that the Treasury is at best sceptical about the value of a national railway these evaluations tend to err on the side of caution. The outcome is what we experience currently, a network struggling to keep up with demand with promises always of "jam tomorrow" but tomorrow seems never to come!

As for a solution I doubt we'll ever see it as it requires political intervention on a fairly large scale. We, as an electorate, tend to prioritise other matters (and parties!) when we cast our vote so it seems inevitable that the making-do-and-mend attitude that dominates so many railway policies will continue.
I bet no politican or TOC would publicly agree with you.

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
If the income from the extra passengers exceeds the extra costs of operation, then there is no reason why it should not be done. Negotiations to re-jig a franchise are time consuming and in view of the limited staffing in the DfT it is understandable - but not ideal - that such capacity increases will be part and parcel of the negotiations for the next franchise.

No it isn't. It goes to the heart of the question of how to finance and organise the railways.

Yet they seem to think the DfT have time to change the delay repayment schemes for franchises, not all of which are up for renewal right now.

Sent from my SM-G925F using Tapatalk
 

DY444

Member
Joined
16 Sep 2012
Messages
138
I think 442s were compatible with 4CIGs and 4VEPs, but became an isolated fleet when the slam-door stock was withdrawn. They were suitable for the route they were designed for, but it was unfortunate for them that when more stock (class 444) was ordered for that route, to a similar layout, it was electrically quite different - though compatible with the large fleet of 450s ordered at the same time.

442s were compatible with 63 stock in the sense that they had buckeye couplers, 27 way EP jumpers and waist level brake pipes. They couldn't work together though because the cab front gangways were incompatible.
 

SpacePhoenix

Established Member
Joined
18 Mar 2014
Messages
5,491
They couldn't work together though because the cab front gangways were incompatible.

You mean they could work together? It's been said a few times that gangways aren't necessary, the gangway doors between a piggie and say a VEP could just be locked out of use
 

cjmillsnun

Established Member
Joined
13 Feb 2011
Messages
3,275
Primarily the obsession for buying new trains without any consideration for growth through the full life of the unit. The network is littered with dozens of micro fleets that can't be lengthened or joined with through corridors, have specific functions that make them difficult to cascade... the 185s, 22xs, 442s, 360s all spring to mind as short sighted thinking - the 158s and Electrostar fleets strike me as great examples of forward thinking where units can be joined up without detriment. Hopefully this new age of AT300s, Desiro City and Aventra, plus Northerns CAF fleet will help in the future, yet we are still seeing short term thinking, with the cobbled together oddness that is loco hauled on TPE !

442s were the way they were due to the fact that the amount of money available to upgrade the service was small. This is also why the power supply west of Bournemouth was not what it should be. The tradition of re-using old equipment was maintained purely on grounds of cost.
 

F Great Eastern

Established Member
Joined
2 Apr 2009
Messages
3,851
Location
UK
Overcrowding has a lot of causes, but a lot of the time, I've read things like "The TOC's are deliberately running short trains to maximize profits." and "If the DFT was directly in charge there would be more, longer trains." completely ignores the point that the DFT are core at the blame to this for a several reasons.

1) Letting franchises on no growth terms (Northern)
2) Placing far too much emphasis on price (National Express East Anglia / East Coast)
3) There inability to close rolling stock deals quickly (Thameslink/IEP)
4) The micro management of train orders (TPE)

Even if we nationalized the railways next week, the DFT would still be there.
 

The Ham

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
12,036
One relevant issue is that if you had, for instance, a two-car unit and you added a third coach to relieve overcrowding, you'd incur 50% more leasing costs and extra track access charges, but no extra revenue to start with. That's not necessarily an argument against private ownership, because even in a state-owned system they'd have to take account of the costs of building extra carriages and meeting the debt payments on them over the next thirty years.

You may increase your lease costs and track access charges by 50%, however your staff costs stay the same, as does your head off and station costs. Therefore the extra costs are not 50% more, if may only be about 33% more. However I take your point that there would be no extra revenue to begin with.

Given that a DMU coach has been quoted as being about £110,000 per year on a rural line with lots of stations in a relatively short distance you are going to struggle to recoup your costs, especially if the large loadings are only on one or two services a day.

Also, at least with DMU's you can form any length of unit from 2 upwards if you have classes of DMU's with either 2 or 3 coaches in length. Whilst an EMU you tend to be stuck with either 3, 6 & 9 or 4, 8 & 12 or 5 & 10. As such the TOC needs to see a LOT of extra passengers to lengthen a train from 4 to 8 whilst from 8 to 12 often means longer platforms so that's not much better (although ASDO should solve that more going forwards).
 

ian959

Member
Joined
9 May 2009
Messages
483
Location
Perth, Western Australia
Doesn't it all boil down to:

Accountant: we need 4 car trains to meet current demand
TOC: we need 5 or 6 car trains to meet current and future demand
DfT: you are getting 3 car trains
 

a_c_skinner

Established Member
Joined
21 Jun 2013
Messages
1,700
I rather thought that was the case! I am proud to have started a thread that rapidly became a debate about both the 442 and the 230s.

I'm not optimistic that the railway can change into a more "can do" system.
 

Masbroughlad

Established Member
Joined
2 Mar 2011
Messages
1,847
Location
Midlands
Cram as many people as you can into insufficient numbers of carriages.

It's all about making as much profit as possible and not about providing a service. Operators should realise that a longer train that is comfortable would attract more custom.

Everything has been cut to the very bare minimum. Rationalised track, not enough rolling stock, too fragmented structures.

Would some strategic reserves of stock help?

Or there must be times when commuter trains are stood around at weekend that could be used on leisure based services at weekends. The complicated structure of the industry stops this. Under one bigger company, stock could be utilised more efficiently. Now you could have TOC A train, full and standing, passing sidings full of idle trains belonging to TOC B.
 

FQTV

Member
Joined
27 Apr 2012
Messages
1,067
Overcrowding has a lot of causes, but a lot of the time, I've read things like "The TOC's are deliberately running short trains to maximize profits." and "If the DFT was directly in charge there would be more, longer trains." completely ignores the point that the DFT are core at the blame to this for a several reasons.

1) Letting franchises on no growth terms (Northern)
2) Placing far too much emphasis on price (National Express East Anglia / East Coast)
3) There inability to close rolling stock deals quickly (Thameslink/IEP)
4) The micro management of train orders (TPE)

Even if we nationalized the railways next week, the DFT would still be there.

Whilst those 'in the know' may know, the vast majority of voters, I would think, believe that it's the train operating companies who decide. When it comes to anything shiny new being delivered, millions of pounds of TOC marketing money is thrown at cementing that myth in the public's mind.

Under a different system, the DfT may not be able to hide behind that opacity, and voters at large may begin to understand more clearly that those they vote for are indeed the ones to hold to account.

Doesn't it all boil down to:

Accountant: we need 4 car trains to meet current demand
TOC: we need 5 or 6 car trains to meet current and future demand
DfT: you are getting 3 car trains

It would appear so, with possibly the additional involvement of:

Treasury: we're reducing the cost of Road Fund Licence to encourage people to drive 'cleaner' cars, but we don't understand what 'cleaner' cars are and aren't Volkswagens lovely to sit in traffic jams in.
 

a_c_skinner

Established Member
Joined
21 Jun 2013
Messages
1,700
That would be the politicians, not the civil servants. This is all like the successive government's promises to build more homes. They promise it, but do nothing really effective to make it happen. Similarly they always say they want more stuff on rail and off the roads but again do no effective intervention.

Joe Public truly thinks the whip hand is the TOCs for trains, timetables, fares and so on. I'm not a railway person, but I do try to disabuse them of this simplistic analysis.

Andrew
 

tbtc

Veteran Member
Joined
16 Dec 2008
Messages
18,060
Location
Reston City Centre
It may be cheaper, it may not. There's certainly no harm in keeping some of the best of what's been withdrawn at Long Marston or Shoeburyness for a while

That would have been acceptable in the '80s.

But, in those days you didn't have to worry about things like accessibility regulations. Coaches were mechanically simple things, staff didn't require specific training on dozens of different types of unit.

Now, if you are talking about a strategic reserve of redundant stock, you'd have to ensure that it complied with modern accessibility regulations (which will be quite expensive after 31 December 2019), you'd presumably have to find spare time to arrange training days for well paid drivers/ guards to keep up to date on training to operate stock that may only be required once or twice a year...

...the modern railway is too complicated for what you want.

What's your proposal? That (at a time when there aren't enough staff to operate existing services at some TOCs) we send staff on training days to maintain their traction knowledge on 442s just in case we ever need to dust them down and put them back in operation? How much money will it cost to keep redundant stock in "warm storage"? Keep all of those computers working?

Doesn't it all boil down to:

Accountant: we need 4 car trains to meet current demand
TOC: we need 5 or 6 car trains to meet current and future demand
DfT: you are getting 3 car trains

Partly, but it depends on the contract that the TOC has.

If the TOC has agreed that the service will be extended during the franchise then that forms part of the contract.

If the TOC believe that there's a good enough business case for six coach trains then they are welcome to fund them (as long as they don't have to run cap in hand to the Government for more subsidy).

If there's no agreement for longer trains in the franchise and the TOC don't find a business case to justify them then it won't happen. But this would be the same under a nationalised system (the same risk-averse Governments would be holding the purse strings regardless).

The difference is that, under privatisation, a TOC can raise the funds to pay for new/ additional stock over the period of the franchise (if they can find a ROSCO happy to look for future bidders for that stock at the end of the franchise).

Thankfully at the moment we seem to be moving to a world where new franchises are getting new stock and we are seeing a renaissance. The problem is that franchises not up for renewal (or those that have contract extensions) are stagnating as they aren't getting the same settlements.
 

The Ham

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
12,036
I believe I have made the following point elsewhere on the forum but it bears repeating: the national rail network in this country loses money when taken as a whole. That loss is made up by subsidy from public funds. Of course the detail of the financial balance varies greatly across the network but the basic fact still stands. It is also possible to argue that any increase in the "size" of this loss-making railway, whether in infrastructure or passenger-carrying capacity, runs the risk of making that loss worse. This leads to any proposal for such an increase being subject to a rather complex evaluation to test its value for money, often expressed as BCR (Business Case Return). Given that the Treasury is at best sceptical about the value of a national railway these evaluations tend to err on the side of caution. The outcome is what we experience currently, a network struggling to keep up with demand with promises always of "jam tomorrow" but tomorrow seems never to come!

As for a solution I doubt we'll ever see it as it requires political intervention on a fairly large scale. We, as an electorate, tend to prioritise other matters (and parties!) when we cast our vote so it seems inevitable that the making-do-and-mend attitude that dominates so many railway policies will continue.

It depends on how far you take the industry is "taking" money from the government.

At a HMRC pays moneyto DfT to pay to NR, TOCs, etc. and they pay it back, then the industry costs the country.

However if you then look at the amount of tax that the companies pay (including staff tax deductions) then I am lead to believe that it is broadly balanced.

However, even that doesn't take on board that the staff pay oils the economy (more taxes to HMRC) and that there would be less jobs if there were no railway (potentially more people claiming benefits, either directly or indirectly) then it could be argued that by running the railways is a good thing for the country.

However, one thing that could be a focus of an investigation by the government is looking at schemes and/or services that would increase the use of existing lines without costing much. Using what we have more efficiently.

As in simple terms a track that has 1 train every two hours doesn't cost 4 times that of one that has two trains an hour to maintain. Yes, there are cut offs depending on amount of capacity that a line has.

By running a new service over >95% exiting track then the amount of extra track access charges would be much higher but without much in the way of extra costs (other than the build costs of the new track).

There are other ways, for instance electrifying the line to Salisbury and extending the Basingstoke stoppers you double the frequency of services between Basingstoke and Salisbury without needing to do much other work. That will make it much more attractive to use the trains (i.e. more passengers) but with limited impact on costs (little or no extra track, limited extra rolling stock).

Even where no electrification is planned running extensions of services over otherwise quite lines. For instance splitting the Exeter service so that part goes to Weymouth means that it gets to Weymouth about 15 minutes slower from London than going direct which means that if the price was slightly cheaper going that way off peak it could attract enough passengers to make it worth doing that (see Portsmouth via Basingstoke services). It also has to be remembered that often the very fast services to Weymouth don't always call at fairly busy stations like Basingstoke and Woking, so it could make services between certain stations more frequent.

Do that enough times across the network and enough small improvements to numbers of passenger could mean that however you evaluate future government spend on railways it always came up as a positive thing.

Look at GB cycling, they focus on a lot of small improvements and it makes them the fastest. If there was a program of lots of small improvements to attract more people to the network, focused where there is already some space for extra services, then the cost of subsidy of the railway would fall.

Those small improvements could also mean that big projects (like HS2) could then be even more successful then they otherwise would be.
 

Shaw S Hunter

Established Member
Joined
21 Apr 2016
Messages
3,497
Location
Over The Hill
Thankfully at the moment we seem to be moving to a world where new franchises are getting new stock and we are seeing a renaissance. The problem is that franchises not up for renewal (or those that have contract extensions) are stagnating as they aren't getting the same settlements.

Which is the government's way of applying austerity measures to the railway given that it dare not cut back things like electrification, Northern Hub, etc. And even these have been subjected to a review (Hendy).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top