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Which year was the lowest ebb in UK railways

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KevinTurvey

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1982 for reasons already mentioned. Although I do wonder if the APT had been a roaring success then this might have not been the case.

With regard to Autumn/Winter 2000 the breakdown was pretty much total on the WCML due to Hatfield speed restrictions and flooding. I was traveling regularly to Euston at the time and I have old diaries recording from 1st November onwards where I was between 3 hr and 5hr late on consecutive weekly journeys, often diverted via Northampton, Coventry and Bescot although by mid January things had got much better.
 
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Bald Rick

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With regard to Autumn/Winter 2000 the breakdown was pretty much total on the WCML due to Hatfield speed restrictions and flooding. I was traveling regularly to Euston at the time and I have old diaries recording from 1st November onwards where I was between 3 hr and 5hr late on consecutive weekly journeys, often diverted via Northampton, Coventry and Bescot although by mid January things had got much better.

I shared your pain there. Birmingham - London was routinely 3-4 hours.
 

Falcon1200

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With regard to Autumn/Winter 2000 the breakdown was pretty much total on the WCML due to Hatfield speed restrictions and flooding.

I shared your pain there.

Shortly after Hatfield I was night shift in Glasgow Control. That afternoon the Route Director had instructed that the WCML in Scotland would be closed at 0800 the next day for the rails to be checked; No ifs, no buts, this was an absolute decree. As I quickly discovered after taking duty, not everyone knew this, and there were trains en route from the south which could not make the deadline. It was left to me to give the relevant Operators the bad news, also Carlisle Signalling Centre who were not happy at having to find places to recess trains.
 

Harpo

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Shortly after Hatfield I was night shift in Glasgow Control. That afternoon the Route Director had instructed that the WCML in Scotland would be closed at 0800 the next day for the rails to be checked; No ifs, no buts, this was an absolute decree. As I quickly discovered after taking duty, not everyone knew this, and there were trains en route from the south which could not make the deadline. It was left to me to give the relevant Operators the bad news, also Carlisle Signalling Centre who were not happy at having to find places to recess trains.
Railtrack and Network Rail exemplified delegated leadership. Grown ups leaving others to stick their heads over the parapets.
 

mike57

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Looking at the comments, my thoughts:

Although specific incidents have caused major problems, 2000 post Hatfield, 1982 cutbacks and indusrial action I would back 1975-6...

The railway system looked tired and I can see why people dismissed rail as an option. Journey times for the most part were pretty much the same as they had always been, rolling stock was tired.

The following year the HST was introduced. As these were rolled out on the GWR and ECML main lines then other routes over the next few years, they made a huge difference, to both comfort and journey times, and there is no doubt that they resulted in people considering rail as first option for journeys. Yes there were some serious bumps along the road so to speak, but my perception is this is when things began to turn around.

1976 saw the closure of the Haltwhistle - Alston branch, which was pretty much the last of the Beeching report closures, with only March Spalding being the other significant closure after 1976 that I can think of, and that wasn't Beeching driven.

By the mid 80s things were improving, and by the end of the decade Channel Tunnel construction started and Thameslink opened. Yes there were setbacks, but the overall direction was positive.
 

Magdalia

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The following year the HST was introduced. As these were rolled out on the GWR and ECML main lines then other routes over the next few years, they made a huge difference, to both comfort and journey times, and there is no doubt that they resulted in people considering rail as first option for journeys.
The HST roll out was actually quite slow, the ECML didn't have a full HST service until 1979, and the last sets were delivered in 1982.

And until after 1982, HSTs were still just a faster version of the old timetable. In 1981 there were no HST arrivals in Kings Cross before 0900 and no departures after 2000.

The 1982 lowest ebb is also what got BR to use the HSTs much more efficiently, so that the Midland Main Line could have HSTs in 1983 without building new trains.
 

Big Jumby 74

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One economic hard time that did not appear to hurt the level of service provided by the railway, however, was the late-00s credit crunch and early 10s Cameronite austerity. I didn't notice any cutbacks in this period compared to the mid-90s to mid-00s norm: certainly in SWT- and Southern-land, it seemed to be business as usual in terms of the service offered
That's an interesting (positively so) comment I have to say, given the amount of work that was done to mitigate the financial situation that pervaded in 2008. Behind the scenes it was anything but business as usual for SWT, and if the measures taken were, as you suggest, not that obvious, then that is a mark of how SWT kept ahead of the wider field during those years.
 

edwin_m

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The following year the HST was introduced. As these were rolled out on the GWR and ECML main lines then other routes over the next few years, they made a huge difference, to both comfort and journey times, and there is no doubt that they resulted in people considering rail as first option for journeys. Yes there were some serious bumps along the road so to speak, but my perception is this is when things began to turn around.
This perception probably on where the beholder was at the time. The southern WCML got a similar journey time boost ten years earlier with electrification and both the WCML and ECML were running aircon Mk2s with similar comfort levels to the HST from around 1970. Meanwhile the Southern had recently introduced major new EMU fleets, albeit based on a earlier non-aircon designs, and even its primary routes lagged behind the comfort levels of the late Mk2 and Mk3 until ten or more years later.
 

nw1

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That's an interesting (positively so) comment I have to say, given the amount of work that was done to mitigate the financial situation that pervaded in 2008. Behind the scenes it was anything but business as usual for SWT, and if the measures taken were, as you suggest, not that obvious, then that is a mark of how SWT kept ahead of the wider field during those years.
Indeed - I used SWT a lot in this era, at least once a week for leisure purposes, usually weekends but not infrequently weekdays too. Not to commute into London, though. Often Southern too, usually Southampton-Havant, thereafter changing to SWT to head up the Direct. As stated I didn't detect any deterioration of reliability or reduction of services or train lengths compared to the immediately preceding years.
 

Big Jumby 74

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Indeed - I used SWT a lot in this era, at least once a week for leisure purposes, usually weekends but not infrequently weekdays too. Not to commute into London, though. Often Southern too, usually Southampton-Havant, thereafter changing to SWT to head up the Direct.
I could elaborate further, but to do so would risk identifying myself and other respected colleagues from those times, which I am not prepared to do on an open forum.
 

coppercapped

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I would go for the end of WW2 being the lowest point. A lot of infrastructure had been destroyed in bombing raids (locos, station buildings etc) and lots of railwaymen killed in the war (both on the railways and in action). The big 4 had no money left and nationaliation was the only option.
I don’t know haw many times this has to be repeated, but this view that nationalisation was the only option is mis-informed and incomplete. The “Big Four” were certainly tight for money but this went back to the 1930s and post war Government decisions. Towards the end of the 1930s they campaigned for a "Square Deal”, to get some more support for investment — returns on capital were pretty poor being around 2% to 2.5%. Together, the effects of the Common Carrier obligations, the rate-setting by the Transport Commissioners and the after-effects of the Depression meant the railways were starved of investment funds.

The war gave the Big Four protected revenue but the whole system was hugely mistreated in terms of lack of renewals and zero investment (unsurprising considering the circumstances), but the post war Government refused to pay the full amount of the wartime revenue due to them. It was much easier to avoid having to fork out the cash and nationalise them instead.

All Four had good plans for the future, and indeed had started to work towards them:
  • the LNER had started both the Woodhead and Shenfield electrifications, built a prototype electric locomotive and was proposing a batch of mainline diesel locomotives
  • the GWR had built branch and mainline diesel railcars, and had ordered a locomotive using the very newest prime mover, the gas turbine
  • the LMS built the Ivatt mainline diesels, the first being completed in that 3 year gap between the end of the war and nationalisation
  • the Southern was planning extensions to its electrified network and had started the build of diesel mainline locomotives.
The nationalised railway then wasted eight years before picking up the development of mainline diesels again.

The railways were not singled out for nationalisation - they were one of many industries nationalised for ideological reasons but, and this is important, there was no Government investment in any of them, the shareholders received Government paper which essentially guaranteed a dividend. In the case of transport, the BTC was expected to generate a return sufficient to pay the dividends to the shareholders of the erstwhile ‘Big Four'. By 1952, only four years after nationalisation, it couldn't.

I know the 50s to the early 80s was not a good time for the railway but at least some good things happened (electrification, HSTs etc), unlike the 3 year period from the end of WW2 until formation of BR.
Agreed, except that, as I wrote above, things were starting to move.

Passenger numbers were always going to drop because it became affordable for working class people to own a car during that time and they did not need to rely on the railway anymore. The big increases in passenger numbers coincided with the UKs population growing from the early 90s onwards, so even though the railways have improved since 1982, passenger numbers would still have increased anyway to some extent.

There is no direct correlation between the UK’s population growth or the number of cars on the road and rail use. Between 1950 and 1970 when passenger numbers were falling, the population grew by some 11.4% and between 1990 and 2010 when passenger numbers were rising, by the lesser value of 9.8%. The size of the vehicle parc rose by over 400% between 1950 and 1970 so this certainly had an effect on passenger numbers but it also grew by nearly 40% between 1990 and 2010 when passenger numbers were increasing dramatically. There are certainly links, but they are not obvious from a simple examination of the numbers.
If and when reform win the next election, there will be every reason to feel pessimistic for the future of the railways.
Not only for the railways...!
 
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mike57

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I don’t know haw many times this has to be repeated, but this view that nationalisation was the only option is mis-informed and incomplete
A bit off topic so I will start a new thread, but if the privatisation of the mid 90's had reverted to a 'big four' structure where would be today
 

Strathclyder

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Late 2000 with Hatfield and the subsequent chaos and implosion of Railtrack and 2020 with COVID were bleak times to be sure that felt like they'd never end at the time, but in the end turned out to be hiccups in the grand scheme of things.

Barring those (I was alive for the above examples and only have active memories of the latter; was only 4 years old in late 2000/early 2001), I'd also throw my hat into the ring for the early 1980s as the absolute nadier thus far experienced. Drowning in malaise, dogged by strikes and a general air of aimlessness & managed decline.

In purely local terms (Glasgow/Strathclyde), I'd also put the mid-late 70s to early 80s forward as my pick, even with the Argyle Line opening in late 1979 with the new 314s. Perhaps the prime example was the Subway becoming increasingly decrepit and unsafe prior to finally being closed for refurbishment/rebuilding (1973 to 77 was the lowest period in the system's history imho, regardless of how atmospheric images from that period are).
 

Magdalia

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I don’t know haw many times this has to be repeated, but this view that nationalisation was the only option is mis-informed and incomplete.

A bit off topic so I will start a new thread, but if the privatisation of the mid 90's had reverted to a 'big four' structure where would be today
In 1947 the LNER proposed an alternative to Nationalisation which was in some ways similar to how privatisation turned out after the establishment of Network Rail, with the state owning the tracks and the Big Four still running the trains. But the LNER couldn't persuade the other Big Four companies to support it.
 

mike57

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In 1947 the LNER proposed an alternative to Nationalisation which was in some ways similar to how privatisation turned out after the establishment of Network Rail, with the state owning the tracks and the Big Four still running the trains. But the LNER couldn't persuade the other Big Four companies to support it.
And I suspect the Labour government of the day would have ploughed on with nationalisation anyway, as it was part of their dogma, and any alternatives, no matter how sensible would be dismissed. Its one thing that hasn't changed over the years and multiple changes of government.
 

nw1

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Late 2000 with Hatfield and the subsequent chaos and implosion of Railtrack and 2020 with COVID were bleak times to be sure that felt like they'd never end at the time, but in the end turned out to be hiccups in the grand scheme of things.

I'm not so sure about Covid, for some TOCs at least. To me, some parts of the railway post-Covid is radically different, and not in a good way, to what I experienced from 1982 to 2019.

Due to less commuters using the railway, the SWR peak into and out of London has been slashed: compare the current SWR peak offering on the mainlines into and out of Waterloo with that which applied at any time from 1967 electrification to 2019. Essentially on the main lines there are, IIRC, just three peak extras between 1700 and 1800. One of those is merely restoring the old off-peak pattern on the Portsmouth Direct of 4tph for that particular hour.

This has knock-on effects off-peak too: due to this loss of commuters and the income they provide, the overwhelming message appears to be that there is little money for service improvements, extra stock or even maintaining stock levels (e.g. Southern's 455s lost without replacement), relieving overcrowding (XC), and so on.

So for example the old xx39 off-peak semi-fast to Poole on the main line is gone without replacement, presumably as a direct result of the loss of commuter income meaning that SWR can no longer afford to run it. It doesn't even run in the 1700-1800 peak hour AFAIK. Eastleigh down to 1tph off-peak from Waterloo for the first time, I believe, since the 1990 Solent electrification.

Other TOCs do seem to have done better, especially those on the northern and eastern sides of London. Greater Anglia appears to be maintaining a healthy peak uplift: on the GEML, and discounting the Norwich services, the number of trains per hour doubles from 4 to 8. Southend increases from 3 to 5, with a couple of Southminster through workings in addition - a more modest increase, especially compared to pre-Covid, but at least the increase is there. Chiltern and LNWR I believe are also doing OK. Seems to be the southern and western London TOCs (Southern, SWR, GWR) who are struggling to add back peak extras.

It raises the question: should government be encouraging more people to return to the office, to help the economy in general (not just the railways, but cafes, restaurants etc in business areas?)
 
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mike57

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It raises the question: should government be encouraging more people to return to the office, to help the economy in general (not just the railways, but cafes, restaurants etc in business areas?)
I dont think 'encouraging' people back to the office will acheive anything positive. Who wants to spend maybe two hours a day and a wedge of money to do their job when it can be done remotely with no travel time or cost. Things have moved on and the genie wont go back in the bottle. Companies that force a return against staff wishes will lose their good staff to companies who are more flexible and be left with those who cant find something better.

I actually think a flatter model for the demand with less peaks would be better for the railways, and easier to manage and resource.

Going off topic if you want to help the economy curb government spending and stop raising taxes, every time you put taxes up a few more people opt out in one way or another, they decide to close/downsize/retire/not start the business/whatever. In terms of how the business areas are managed going forward some buildings will be redundent, maybe thats a chance to make city living more pleasant and affordable.

In terms of impact on the railways as a railway operator the smoother the flows thoughout the day, and day to day, the better, as resources will be used in a more efficent way.
 

Magdalia

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It raises the question: should government be encouraging more people to return to the office, to help the economy in general (not just the railways, but cafes, restaurants etc in business areas?)
And the answer to that question is no.

What benefits the economy in general is for it to adapt to the changed reality.

People working from home don't stop spending money, they just spend it in different places. Working from home is actually something of a misnomer, from what I see quite a lot of it is people sitting in local cafes drinking coffee and eating pastries while they work. What you are asking for is a government bung to support business areas with lots of commuting. That would disproportionately go to London, not exactly a good regional policy.

There is a big lesson from 1982 here. There was a changed reality in 1982 and the railway adapted much better than many other parts of the economy. It needs to adapt again now.
 

eldomtom2

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In 1947 the LNER proposed an alternative to Nationalisation which was in some ways similar to how privatisation turned out after the establishment of Network Rail, with the state owning the tracks and the Big Four still running the trains. But the LNER couldn't persuade the other Big Four companies to support it.
Which is indicative of how bad things were for the LNER after the War.
 

coppercapped

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Which is indicative of how bad things were for the LNER after the War.
The war in question being the Great War... The post-war depression in the 1920s hit the heavy industries, a major component of the local economy in the North East, very hard and this was followed by the effect of the depression induced by the Wall Street crash and the ensuing slump in global trade. In 1929 the region had an unemployment rate of 13.7% which rose to 28.5% by 1932.

Jarrow Marches, anyone?

This compact area had contributed massively to the LNER's income in 1923 and its collapse hit the LNER hard. There were some bright spots such as the rise of the chemicals and plastics industries and the increased demand for steel as a result of the re-armament programme from the mid-1930s onwards but all this only contributed a couple of years' extra receipts before the Second World War started.

The LNER proposed the ‘Landlord and Tenant’ structure for its own network in order to survive. If the LNER could have got rid of much of its excessive infrastructure where heavy industry had suffered badly it might have been able to continue as a company. Alternatively it could have regrouped as two companies - one with the profitable parts and either closed the other or sought other sources of funds from local or central Government.

This was also a pretty low ebb, just a generation earlier.
 

Anetos

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Apart from temporary setbacks like Hatfield and COVID, I can't decide between 1965 (pre-outphasing of steam), 1973 (pre-WCML electrification, PTEs, HST and Railcards plus the whole economic crisis thing) or the early 80s (post-Woodhead closure plus Magdalia's reasons and the 108% fare hike from 1979 to 1994, plus the decline of industry and therefore rail freight)
 
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eldomtom2

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The war in question being the Great War... The post-war depression in the 1920s hit the heavy industries, a major component of the local economy in the North East, very hard and this was followed by the effect of the depression induced by the Wall Street crash and the ensuing slump in global trade. In 1929 the region had an unemployment rate of 13.7% which rose to 28.5% by 1932.

Jarrow Marches, anyone?

This compact area had contributed massively to the LNER's income in 1923 and its collapse hit the LNER hard. There were some bright spots such as the rise of the chemicals and plastics industries and the increased demand for steel as a result of the re-armament programme from the mid-1930s onwards but all this only contributed a couple of years' extra receipts before the Second World War started.

The LNER proposed the ‘Landlord and Tenant’ structure for its own network in order to survive. If the LNER could have got rid of much of its excessive infrastructure where heavy industry had suffered badly it might have been able to continue as a company. Alternatively it could have regrouped as two companies - one with the profitable parts and either closed the other or sought other sources of funds from local or central Government.

This was also a pretty low ebb, just a generation earlier.
This is all arguably true - but it's evidence against the idea that BR's financial troubles were its own fault rather than the result of external circumstances. I doubt the LNER would have been able to prevent further bleeding - the political environment at the time would not have looked kindly on subsidies and once the unprofitable parts had been taken out I doubt much would even be left.
 

Clarence Yard

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1980 is my nomination. All the cutbacks from late 1980 to the end of 1982 date back to BR financial crisis of late 1980 and the serious stuff started from then. It was just over two years of absolute restraint, scrapping and ripping up or closing of everything that wasn’t deemed necessary.
 

coppercapped

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This is all arguably true - but it's evidence against the idea that BR's financial troubles were its own fault rather than the result of external circumstances. I doubt the LNER would have been able to prevent further bleeding - the political environment at the time would not have looked kindly on subsidies and once the unprofitable parts had been taken out I doubt much would even be left.
Hindsight is a wonderful thing…
…but it is certainly true that the new British Railways was compromised by the financial and legal structures existing in 1948.

The points that I and others are trying to make are that:
  • in its early days it made absolutely no attempt to adapt to the new social and economic landscape in which it found itself
  • many of the problems it faced were self-inflicted.
Because of the changed economic circumstances this is not say that even with an adapted legislative framework the railway would have remained self-funded but that by denying for nearly ten years that the world had changed the shock of the ‘Beeching Plan’ would not have been so great - and it may have not even been needed. To address your point about subsidies it is conceivable that the British Transport Commission (BTC) and the government of the day could have earlier worked towards a framework for subsidising the ’social railway’ (as was the case by 1961/2) where the alternatives, due to an increasing number of cars, would have been more expensive.

The institutional framework in which the railways operated dated from 1938 and was set in aspic by nationalisation. Two examples:
  • the ‘Common Carrier Obligation’ was introduced in 1854 to try to stop the many private railway and canal companies from acting in a monopolistic manner, but it completely escaped the notice of the Labour government that it itself had created a transport monopoly (rail, road and canal) and therefore the common carrier obligation was now completely irrelevant. It should have been abolished as part of the 1947 Act but it remained and made any type of management accounting allocating income and expenses pointless
  • the BTC did not have the freedom to decide its fares and freight rates, any changes had to be approved by the Traffic Commissioners[1] but they remained aligned to the value of the goods and not the cost of movement.
Equally, the Railway Executive (RE) lived in a time warp and made no attempt to adapt its product to the circumstances existing after the War. At the end of the War there were serious labour shortages, some 350,000 men had been killed - they were all fit and most of them were young. Wages were increasing as was to be expected to get supply and demand into balance and it was becoming increasingly difficult to attract staff to the dirty jobs done during unsocial hours. Yet the RE continued to build motive power and operate train services using pre-war labour intensive technologies and methods.

Technology had advanced tremendously during the War. Many, if not all, of those being demobbed had experience of high speed internal combustion engines - all those lorries, jeeps, tanks and aircraft - and electronic communications. And yet the RE continued to build steam engines and strangled modern alternatives at birth.

At the time BR was created the LMS had built diesel shunters and the prototype Ivatt main line diesel locomotives and the Southern was also well on its way. The GWR had built a series of diesel railcars in the 1930s and ordered gas turbine main line locomotives using a form of prime mover which was only five years old. Forward looking or what? The Southern had electrified significant parts of its network by the time war broke out.

Then it all stopped. The RE added diesel shunters to its build programme and picked up railcar development again in 1952. Mainline diesel locomotive development restarted in 1955 with the publication of the Modernisation Plan. By this time the second or third iteration of the Ivatt designs could have been putting out 2,000 bhp or more with much operational experience behind them.

Road vehicle reliability and capability had increased enormously - yet the basic unit of freight production remained the 10 ton van ambling from siding to siding.

The RE did not look at all these changes and ask itself how the railway should be adapted to compete. Its biggest failing was that the traffic studies and analyses that Beeching had done in 1961 should have been done 14 or 15 years earlier. But they weren’t and so the BTC wasted hundreds of millions in building Type 2 diesels for a traffic which was vanishing.

And the rest is history.

[1] Not the correct name, but my memory fails me!
 

35B

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Hindsight is a wonderful thing…
…but it is certainly true that the new British Railways was compromised by the financial and legal structures existing in 1948.

The points that I and others are trying to make are that:
  • in its early days it made absolutely no attempt to adapt to the new social and economic landscape in which it found itself
  • many of the problems it faced were self-inflicted.
There's no argument that BR and BTC played their hand badly*, but the points that follow are a classic example of post hoc rationalisation - because X happened eventually, it could have done earlier. Given how advanced the approach of Beeching was considered at the time, I think that sets an unfair standard for BR to be held to; likewise, the changes in traffic were rapidly evolving and surveys of the late Attlee era would never have remained current.

Reading good histories of the period, it's really clear that the requirement to be self sustaining was deep in the culture, as was an incoherent belief in public service that was never defined, and was quite paralysing in reality (as well as being very poorly delivered).

* - My grandfather told stories of Sir Brian Robertson running the BTC like a particularly old fashioned army unit, and regarding any cross-communication between board members as tantamount to mutiny. Not a model that was set up for success.
 

Sir Felix Pole

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There's no argument that BR and BTC played their hand badly*, but the points that follow are a classic example of post hoc rationalisation - because X happened eventually, it could have done earlier. Given how advanced the approach of Beeching was considered at the time, I think that sets an unfair standard for BR to be held to; likewise, the changes in traffic were rapidly evolving and surveys of the late Attlee era would never have remained current.

Reading good histories of the period, it's really clear that the requirement to be self sustaining was deep in the culture, as was an incoherent belief in public service that was never defined, and was quite paralysing in reality (as well as being very poorly delivered).

* - My grandfather told stories of Sir Brian Robertson running the BTC like a particularly old fashioned army unit, and regarding any cross-communication between board members as tantamount to mutiny. Not a model that was set up for success.
Yes, it is fair to criticise some of the mistakes that early BR made, but rather deluded to think that everything would have been lovely had the 'Big Four' survived. The LNER was effectively bankrupt in 1948 and the other three would have gone the same way by the early '60s at the latest. They would have followed the familiar U.S.A. pattern of mass closures, deteriorating infrastructure and no money for capital investment. Unlike the U.S., freight wouldn't have saved them either, for once the motorway network developed in the U.K. wagon-load traffic was doomed.

In a desperate attempt to stay afloat, we might even had seen the demolition of Paddington or St. Pancras, like Penn NYC, for a 'Madison Square Garden' type development - or perhaps diversification into airlines and tourism. Clearly government intervention would have to had to come at some point if any semblance of a national rail network was to be retained - even the U.S. created Conrail and Amtrak.

It is all very well getting misty-eyed about the 'Big Four' in the inter-war years, but apart from the few 'glamour' services much of the network was pretty dire with clapped out rolling stock, run-down stations and in dire need of investment. Yes, the Southern invested in electrification and the GWR in its major stations and the Devon and Cornwall holiday route, but mostly at government expense through grants and cheap loans. The LMS was particularly turgid with a poor motive power policy in the early years and eschewed electrification - it was a reluctant partner with the LNER in the Altrincham scheme and the Wirral scheme didn't come along until 1938. It did very little to eliminate its pre-grouping legacy of duplicate lines, stations and depots in Scotland, the North West, Yorkshire and elsewhere. The LNER was hamstrung from the start, with the collapse of heavy industry in the North East and was also stuck with servicing the Great Central debt.
 
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