TFL's 2040 map of peak crowding is pretty revealing as to where extra capacity will be needed.
Even with Crossrail 2 getting built, the Jubilee Line looks very crowded, and the western branches of the District Line coming in to Earls Court / Victoria are pretty 'red' as well.
Clearly more East-West capacity needed nearer the river than the Elizabeth Line is going to run, and more capacity from Victoria/Soho to the Docklands.
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Bigger version)
So, if
the Horizon study itself looked at bringing the DLR to Victoria, why couldn't we extend it just a little further West to give West London some much-needed love?
The Victoria branch (as stated already) that was considered was City Thameslink, Aldwych, Charing Cross, Green Park and Victoria. The curve from Green Park to Victoria leaves the line pointing in a pretty useless southerly direction for going anywhere usefully West, so I wondered if a more useful alignment would either miss Green Park (allowing East/West-orientated platforms under Victoria) or miss Victoria (allowing East/West-orientated platforms at Green Park).
Crayonista Idea 1
- Victoria
- Brompton Road (rebuild + reopened for interchange with the Piccadilly)
- High Street Kensington
- Kensington Olympia
Why?
Because this makes High Street Kensington a far more attractive proposition for District Line customers, meaning you can run more Wimblewares because more people will use them. You'd need more turnback capacity than Edgware Road can provide if you boost that frequency, but you have High Street Kensington itself.
It might be nice to get more of these extra trains District Line through Notting Hill Gate for the Central Line and up to Paddington for Elizabeth Line interchange making them even more attractive, more turnback capacity would be needed though, perhaps at Paddington itself with a new District Line terminal station adjacent to the Crossrail station. With some improvements to Earls Court junctions you'd be able to run 24tph to both Wimbledon and Ealing Broadway/Richmond.
I added Kensington Olympia not because the station is busy, but more for interchange with the Overground.
Further extension towards Old Oak Common would beckon.
Crayonista Idea 2
- Green Park
- Marble Arch (interchange with Central Line)
- Paddington
- take over Hammersmith branch of the SSR
Why?
Again this is ultimately about running more District Line Wimblewares. Since you would no-longer have an H&C line, you could run 24tph up to Edgware Road via High Street Kensington and turn back 16tph of them there, the remaining 8tph + 8tph Circles would continue on as today, the Wimblewares essentially taking over from the H&C all the way around the top of the Circle to Barking.
The existing Hammersmith branch isn't that heavily used, I suspect the smaller DLR trains would do just fine, and could be run at higher frequency than the existing 16tph of Circle + H&C.
This could be fairly cheap to build in shallow cut-and-cover tunnels along the edge of Hyde Park, if this was allowed (you'd restore the grass afterwards!).
Crayonista Idea 3
This would involve the DLR directly taking over from the District Line to Richmond (Piccadilly gets Ealing Broadway when it's running at 36tph). May not be feasible as DLR and Overground trains likely cannot share track (incompatible shoe gear). If the Overground was diverted to Kew Bridge / Hounslow as per the West London Orbital ideas though, perhaps it could work?
Construction leans on an uplifted Piccadilly Line service to West London filling the gaps while the District tracks are rebuilt.
Smaller trains than the S7, but you have the capacity uplift from higher frequencies and a much strengthened Piccadilly Line. You can then send the entire 24tph District Line services from Upminster to Wimbledon, and possibly create a permanent 4tph Kensington Olympia to Edgware Road service to replace the lost Wimbleware services.
If there was a second Western branch to, say, Euston, or Moorgate, I'd imagine you'd want about 20tph on each of them to make them worth the money. This would mean rebuilding Tower Gateway as an underground DLR station on the Bank branch, and pushing capacity on the core section up to 40tph. I suspect the DLR's signalling system might just cope...
I'm sure these back of envelope plans could be ripped to shreds by many of you, please have at if you wish!