I've gone from thinking that the new stock for Avanti/EMR was A Good Thing for XC (because it means a fleet of similar DMUs becoming available in a couple of years, about the only stock capable of matching Voyager timings) to thinking that new stock for Avanti/EMR was A Bad Thing for XC (because it means that the Government feel they can defer any difficult decisions on XC's capacity because there's some "jam tomorrow").
As usual on XC threads, the problem is that the Government have kicked the can down the road too many times - the franchise should have finished four years ago but has had lots of short term extensions - too short for any major decisions to be made.
I think that Arriva's plan in 2006/2007 was about right. The franchise had a modern fleet - they brought in some HSTs - but I don't think that there was much of a business case for replacing Voyagers that were less than ten years old at the time (some people on here get angry about Guards getting new shirts every seven years, so I presume that nobody would have wanted specialist 125mph trains scrapped after such a short period?).
But there were no plans made in 2014/2015 for the franchise post-2016 (which is the date that it should have finished). Arriva were handed extensions on a "business as usual" approach, with nobody daring to take any long term vision. The blame is predominantly with the Government IMHO.
So, we are in a position where the options seem to me to be:
- Struggle on with things as they are, insufficient capacity, so keep fares high to squeeze demand a bit, hope that marginal improvements elsewhere (e.g. Northern running a two coach 195 from Sheffield to Leeds) will soak up a handful of XC passengers?
- Try to get some short HSTs (four coaches, five maximum - i.e. hopefully capable of matching Voyagers) - but that has two problems - it means taking the weaker HSTs (since the best will have been snapped up by ScotRail/ GWR) and also replacing accessible trains with inaccessible ones - it's one thing to keep running Pacers post 31/12/19 as happens on some local routes in Sheffield but to replace modern accessible trains with 1970s ones could see the kind of backlash that TPE faced with their Pretendolino plans - I'm not sure that the Government will want to face that kind of argument - bearing in mind that for every person crammed into a crowded Voyager, there will be many many more in the general public who'd be upset about the emotive spin that will be put on such a decision - I don't know if a Tory government will have the heart to fight that kind of battle (even if I think it might be a necessary compromise). Clearly expecting WABTEC to quickly convert Mk3 is a non starter!
- Replace some of the Birmingham - Manchester services with EMUs (maybe running them through to Birmingham International to cope with platform constraints at New Street). Seems positive, it'd mean you could run eight coach EMUs (e.g. 365s) that'd benefit most passengers north of Birmingham - but it'd upset the small number doing journeys from Manchester all the way to Oxford/ Reading/ Southampton/ Bournemouth/ Bristol/ Exeter etc. Do the needs of the few outweigh the many? It wouldn't have to be *all* Manchester services, but you could find a balance whereby roughly half the services are EMUs to free up Voyagers to use elsewhere (maybe run some diagrams as Bournemouth - Birmingham - Exeter - Birmingham - Bournemouth rather than laying over for long periods at New Street) << and I appreciate that the current diagrams are more like Bournemouth - Birmingham - Manchester - Birmingham - Exeter, so that services at Piccadilly don't return to the place that they came from
- Trim the edges and hope that local TOCs will pick up the slack. For example, Leeds now has two TPE services per hour to Newcastle and will get a full hourly TPE service to Newcastle before long. Do XC need to keep running so many Voyagers north of York (when they are the shortest trains on the line and could be used more further south)? Same with GWR taking more of the strain beyond Bristol. Again, I'm not talking scrapping every through service, but there might be a balance whereby daytime trains see only a bi-hourly service north of York and only a bi-hourly service south west of Bristol? Are there enough people going from Glasgow to Newcastle/ York to justify typing up a Voyager west of Edinburgh? This won't go down well with a number of people - I appreciate that people like the idea that they have a direct service to somewhere far away (even if they might not use it more than once a year), but if we are serious about improving capacity in the "core" then we have to at least consider whether it's worth spending so many resources to the fringes)
For example, the current diagrams see an XC unit leaving Craigentinny at 05:14 to get to Aberdeen for 07:56, and head south, leaving Waverley southbound at 11:06. In the evening, a unit arrives in Waverley at 18:06 but doesn't get to Craigentinny until 00:26 - that's over twelve hours of day (and a lot of diesel) just to keep Aberdeen on the map and provide two useful journeys a day (the arrival into Edinburgh just before 11:00 and the departure just after 18:00 - both of which could be ScotRail's responsibility to fill a gap). This is an example of how XC has too big a remit, trying to fill gaps in other people's schedules (when passengers in the core are crying out for capacity!).
True - a massive difference!
The Voyager would be able to accelerate nice and promptly, thus fitting into the path designed for it.
The sluggish HST would struggle, with its seven carriages, and therefore delay the services behind it (which is quite a problem in New Street at rush hour)