When will Scotland return to some sort of normal?

[Esker-pades]

Standard nat tactics. Anybody with the temerity to disagree with you is being childish, and we're to "keep our heads" and not criticise the government however childishly inept they get.

We are all criticising points of policy which are terrible and damaging. If it turns slightly personal about Sturgeon sometimes that's really only because she personally fronts up a self-aggrandizing press conference every day to tell us, against a growing pile of evidence, that the abuse is for our own good

Gus literally said criticise the government. See below.

Oh for goodness sake, grow up. This thread is supposed to be about when Scotland is supposed to be returning to some sort of normal, but it has degenerated into the "I hate Nicola Sturgeon" thread. By all means criticise the government of the day if you don't like the decisions it makes, but at least try to keep the heid and stay reasonably mature.

My emphases.

 

[applepie2100]

Even Mark Drakeford appears to be moving faster than Nicola Sturgeon now. Non essential retail in Wales can reopen on Monday and the "stay local" request will be removed from July 6th. It now feels like Scotland is by far the most backward part of the UK while all the time the SNP demands more and more money from the UK Government. I really fear for the Scotland we're eventually going to return to when we do get back to real normal and not the "new" normal some people are never tire of parroting on about.

 

[Journeyman]

I've just been out to the shop, and had a nose at today's front pages. The National predictably proclaims that the sun continues to shine out of Sturgeon's backside, but all the other papers were at least slightly critical, a couple very vocally so. The effect on the economy was prominently mentioned. I think the tide might be turning.

 

[Huntergreed]

As with last Friday, I'm going to do a statistical comparison on the proportion of deaths in both Scotland and England, and the estimated 'R' rate in both areas, to determine whether the approach being taken by Scotland is suitable compared to the evidence that Sturgeon explains is 'justifying a more cautious approach' to exiting lockdown.

Daily Deaths

First it is important to note the relative populations of both Scotland and England:

Scotland: 5.454 Million
England: 55.98 Million

We can see here that the English population is approximately equal to 10 times the Scottish population, so in order to justify a slower and more cautious approach to exiting lockdown, one would expect the Scottish daily deaths multiplied by 10 to be greater than the English deaths. Let's compare figures from yesterday:

18th June 2020:

Scotland: 2 Deaths
England: 62 Deaths

Evidence suggests pandemic is approximately 3.10 times more prominent in England than in Scotland


17th June 2020:

Scotland: 9 Deaths
England: 77 Deaths

Evidence suggests pandemic is approximately 1.17 times more prominent in Scotland than in England.

16th June 2020:

Scotland: 5 Deaths
England: 79 Deaths

Evidence suggests pandemic is approximately 1.58 times more prominent in England than in Scotland.

15th June 2020:

Scotland: 0 Deaths
England: 28 Deaths

Evidence suggests pandemic is significantly more prominent in England than in Scotland.


On average (calculating the mean), the pandemic is approximately 1.755 times more prominent in England than in Scotland (taken from the data through 16th - 18th June). This means that Scotland should, in theory, be able to exit lockdown more quickly than in England as the presence of the virus is proportionally smaller than it is in England. In reality, the opposite is happening and Sturgeon is insisting on exiting lockdown more slowly because the situation in Scotland is more dangerous than in England (or so she claims). I'm afraid I don't draw the same conclusion from looking at the evidence.

Comparing 'R' number estimations for both Scotland and England:

Scotland: 0.6 - 0.8
England: 0.8 - 1.0

This suggests the same as the death rate, that the pandemic is less prominent in Scotland and that a faster and less cautious approach to relaxing restrictions could be taken in Scotland compared to England. In reality, the opposite is happening, Sturgeon insists on taking a more cautious approach as she states 'The evidence suggests the 'R' rate may be higher in Scotland than in the rest of the UK'. Once again I do not reach the same conclusion and I am unsure how studying the evidence is leading her to draw the conclusions that she is reaching.

Sources:

Daily Deaths:

England: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Scotland: Taken from video footage of the First Ministers' Daily Briefing

'R' Number Estimates:

England: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Scotland: https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-and-analysis/2020/06/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-5/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-5/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-5/govscot:document/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-5.pdf

 

[Cowley]

Following on from the informative post above can we keep the discussion on here constructive, civil and on topic please.
I think no more derogatory nicknames for Nicola Sturgeon would be a good start...
As mentioned up thread by all means be critical of the government but please do it in a constructive way that adds to the debate.
Thanks everyone.

 

[Markdvdman]

Well Wales is not actually going more forward than Scotland. My girlfriend lives 42 miles away not seen her for 13 weeks. They have not put any support in for Bubbles so nobody can legally stay in another household in Wales. the ONLY UK nation that does not allow for support bubbles yet. So for all the villification of Scotland, you can at least stay with a partner unlike in Wales (I know the caveats but the point is there).

 

[68000]

As with last Friday, I'm going to do a statistical comparison on the proportion of deaths in both Scotland and England, and the estimated 'R' rate in both areas, to determine whether the approach being taken by Scotland is suitable compared to the evidence that Sturgeon explains is 'justifying a more cautious approach' to exiting lockdown.

Maybe the slower easing of restrictions results in the Scottish numbers in your post and the quicker easing of restrictions results in the English numbers

 

[Huntergreed]

Maybe the slower easing of restrictions results in the Scottish numbers in your post and the quicker easing of restrictions results in the English numbers

I have no doubt that this is the case, however I’m looking prospectively, rather than retrospectively, into how we can understand these numbers and what they suggest as evidence for justifying easing the lockdown. It’s clear that, whatever the Scottish Government are saying to justify their decisions, the evidence points to the pandemic being less prominent in Scotland and thus justifies a quicker reopening of the country than England who need to be more careful as the virus is more prominent, but the opposite of this is happening and I’m simply presenting the evidence as I see it to try and see if anyone can explain why Scotland feels the need to ease more slowly and cautiously when the virus is has less presence.

 

[68000]

thus justifies a quicker reopening of the country than England

It may do or it may not.. it depends if you want to eradicate or suppress the virus as much as possible and have a longer normality going forward (minus the international travel) or you are happy with spikes and further (probably localised) lockdowns in the future

 

[Huntergreed]

It may do or it may not.. it depends if you want to eradicate or suppress the virus as much as possible and have a longer normality going forward (minus the international travel) or you are happy with spikes and further (probably localised) lockdowns in the future

The virus isn’t going to go away, if we suppress it down to very low levels, then we’ll need to close our borders to stop another spike, which isn’t really viable in today’s society. We need to reopen the economy and, (possibly) until a vaccine, we’re just going to have to live with a certain level of presence in the background for a while. Driving down the virus to low levels through a prolonged lockdown will stop Covid deaths, but it damages many other aspects of society which arguably may be causing more damage than the 0-10 deaths everyday that Scotland are reporting out of a population of 5.5 million.

 

[68000]

It is a balancing act that needs to be taken and Scotland is not really that far behind the rest of the UK in terms of easing the restrictions. I understand the pub trade is disappointed that they cannot open their beer gardens. However, you need to reduce the virus to low levels to manage the test and protect/trace system as well as having a working solution for tracking the contacts of those who are positive in the future. There is no point in getting the infection low and then allow the free for all we saw in late Feb / early March

 

[Gadget88]

My wife has a party planned in a function room in a pub had to cancel but Sturgeon is going on about pubs being germ spreaders with people shouting ect so this means it may not happen for some time I have a few singers booked so I may have to change venue to more of a social club where small gatherings might be allowed my worry is strict rules with pubs?

 

[nlogax]

My wife has a party planned in a function room in a pub had to cancel but Sturgeon is going on about pubs being germ spreaders with people shouting ect so this means it may not happen for some time I have a few singers booked so I may have to change venue to more of a social club where small gatherings might be allowed my worry is strict rules with pubs?

I reckon it'll be another couple of weeks before pub gardens can be reopened..when's the event? An outside space (with shelter for rain, obvs) could be your best bet.

 

[Gadget88]

I reckon it'll be another couple of weeks before pub gardens can be reopened..when's the event? An outside space (with shelter for rain, obvs) could be your best bet.

It was 27th June so it won’t happen but I was hoping to have it maybe Halloween instead but worry how quick things will move?

 

[nlogax]

It was 27th June so it won’t happen but I was hoping to have it maybe Halloween instead but worry how quick things will move?

If Scotland doesn't get its pubs and pub gardens back before mid July and the rumoured return of the tourist trade then I can see there being some sort of coup! I'd hope you don't have (too) much longer to wait. Certainly not Halloween.

 

[Huntergreed]

It was 27th June so it won’t happen but I was hoping to have it maybe Halloween instead but worry how quick things will move?

If we’re still like this in October, the economy will be practically dead. There’s no way she can insist on these overly draconian restrictions until then and, if she does, the public will just go ahead and open up anyway, people won’t let society die just because she’s hellbent on something totally unrealistic.

 

[High Dyke]

I can see our tenth wedding anniversary trip to Glasgow going out the window at this rate. Supposed to be there from the end of July.

 

[Huntergreed]

I can see our tenth wedding anniversary trip to Glasgow going out the window at this rate. Supposed to be there from the end of July.

I wouldn’t be so hasty, she’s planning on reopening hospitality and tourism, including hotels, on 15th July, so I would, for now, assume this will be okay to go ahead.

 

[Gadget88]

If Scotland doesn't get its pubs and pub gardens back before mid July and the rumoured return of the tourist trade then I can see there being some sort of coup! I'd hope you don't have (too) much longer to wait. Certainly not Halloween.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1274077225709682688?s=21

Read thus though they want to force pubs to serve outside. Most pubs round my way don’t have any outside waiting area

 

[High Dyke]

I wouldn’t be so hasty, she’s planning on reopening hospitality and tourism, including hotels, on 15th July, so I would, for now, assume this will be okay to go ahead.

Aye, we'll see. Thanks.

 

[Butts]

I've just been out to the shop, and had a nose at today's front pages. The National predictably proclaims that the sun continues to shine out of Sturgeon's backside, but all the other papers were at least slightly critical, a couple very vocally so. The effect on the economy was prominently mentioned. I think the tide might be turning.

More commonly known as McPravda

 

[Richard Scott]

More commonly known as McPravda

Certainly made me smile!!!

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Quoted from this thread

Sturgeon is determined to look heroic in going for a total elimination strategy. That's for both the virus and economic activity.

And her population's mental health, sanity and quite frankly lives.

From what I've seen quite a lot of people are already acting as if they're in phase 3, and I've seen some smaller shops with opening dates before the 29th June. The changes in phase 2 seemed targeted at those shielding and those who are deemed to be "isolated", none of which apply to me. As far as I'm concerned I still have little to no freedom in what I do on a daily basis despite the transmission of the virus being next to negligible.

IMO, a week or two of between 0 and 15 new cases being confirmed daily would be when the virus is suppressed to very low levels, and will be the sort of levels we will have to cope with in our normal day-to-day lives, for weeks, months and years to come.

 

[Bletchleyite]

IMO, a week or two of between 0 and 15 new cases being confirmed daily would be when the virus is suppressed to very low levels, and will be the sort of levels we will have to cope with in our normal day-to-day lives, for weeks, months and years to come.

Though of course the reason the virus is being suppressed is social distancing. Though it's clear that England's rather lighter touch measures are still achieving this and so she could loosen further.

 

[RomeoCharlie71]

Though of course the reason the virus is being suppressed is social distancing. Though it's clear that England's rather lighter touch measures are still achieving this and so she could loosen further.

I don't doubt that, but it's also the fact that the majority of the population have been forcibly housebound for the past 12 weeks.

I visited a well-known chained pub/restaurant on 14th March and was stunned to see three of the five males leave the toilets without washing their hands. If people could adopt some common sense, and by that I mean, good hand/respiratory hygiene we'd also be able to live with the virus better.

Then again, given that the people of Dundee find it difficult to understand that "Not in Service" on the front of a bus means exactly that, this approach probably isn't plausible.

 

[Gadget88]

Is anybody here struggling with all these new rules that keep coming in? Quarantine to face masks to stories they will patrol pubs for social distancing. It really feels like our life is policed now not good for my mental health?

 

[Journeyman]

Is anybody here struggling with all these new rules that keep coming in? Quarantine to face masks to stories they will patrol pubs for social distancing. It really feels like our life is policed now not good for my mental health?

I'm with you on that - I find it hugely oppressive. Currently just about everything that makes my life enjoyable and pleasant is banned.

 

[Gadget88]

I'm with you on that - I find it hugely oppressive. Currently just about everything that makes my life enjoyable and pleasant is banned.

The lockdown was very hard at first but some of these rules should have came in sooner. Now the virus is going away it makes little sense and they do want to make life more miserable for people. My fear is this is just the start of many more rules and normal may never return..

 

[Journeyman]

The lockdown was very hard at first but some of these rules should have came in sooner. Now the virus is going away it makes little sense and they do want to make life more miserable for people. My fear is this is just the start of many more rules and normal may never return..

Sturgeon seems to love the phrase "new normal", which fills me with a horrible sinking feeling every time I hear it. I think a lot of restrictions will stay, and I've a feeling widespread civil disobedience might become necessary.

 

[Gadget88]

Sturgeon seems to love the phrase "new normal", which fills me with a horrible sinking feeling every time I hear it. I think a lot of restrictions will stay, and I've a feeling widespread civil disobedience might become necessary.

Yes I noticed Sky Sports saying this too about crowds but thing is one day people will be back in stadiums so does that mean they will go back to old normal?