The virus, SARS-COV-2, was initially feared to be highly lethal and capable of killing up to
1 in 20 infected people. The initial mortality rates for northern Italy’s elderly looked
frightening when transferred to the entire population of the African continent.
Governments, corralled by the WHO, narrowed their focus on dealing with what was
initially presented as an existential threat to medical infrastructure, globally. As more
data poured in, it became clear that the challenge the virus presented, although serious,
was not the global catastrophe previously feared. But seemingly undeterred by emerging
data - the infection fatality rate is now estimated at 0.23% and far lower for those under
65 years of age - global health institutions and governments continue to allocate hefty
resources and a blinkered focus on the pandemic with undiminished urgency.
However, half of the billion-plus people in sub-Saharan Africa are under 19 years of age,
and we have known for most of 2020 that most SARS-COV-2 infections in children are
barely symptomatic. Regardless, a climate of fear was sustained, regarding a looming
‘catastrophe’ for African countries. While European nations locked down their
populations to emulate the highly restrictive measures employed in China, the WHO
advocated for similar measures across Africa. This ran contrary to its own prior evidencebased pandemic guidance and with seemingly little regard for the high vulnerabilities to
pre-existing epidemics (such as malaria, TB and HIV/AIDS), as well as the limited capacity
of these populations to absorb income loss.
The catastrophe currently unfolding in Africa is not due to the coronavirus. Despite
months of community spread in crowded cities, recorded COVID-19 mortality was under
70,000 across the entire continent by 1 January 2021. If we exclude the Mediterranean
countries and South Africa with their differing demography and co-morbidities, this
drops to just 13,031 in over a billion people – that is one in every 80,000 people. As the
figure shows, COVID-19 would likely have gone unnoticed in this population if we had not
been testing for it. Yet, we are where we are – the apparently new virus has dominated
the policies of donors and international organizations on an unprecedented scale, and
while African countries may be easing internally, the focus externally remains on COVID19, and now on a vaccine whose roll-out in these populations would defy all previous
public health norms.
This catastrophe goes far beyond health alone. A generation of children’s schooling has
been interrupted and lower income and rural children will likely never recover. A
generation of girls and young women have been pushed back into the trap of early
marriage and poverty. Economies are devastated and basic human rights and
democratic norms, globally, are under renewed threat.
www.thetimes.co.uk
