When will restrictions finally end?

[Bikeman78]

Quite. People just won't stay at home - the local town centre (tier 2, now 3) has been as busy as normal for weeks now. Most shops (apart from M&S) seem to have abandoned queueing.

Queuing is very much alive in Wales although it does seem to depend on the person stationed by the entrance. Sainsburys appeared to be using the time interval system the other day because the lady at the door was letting people in faster than they were coming out.

 

[duncanp]

To be honest, we are nearly in a full national lockdown anyway, with pretty much the whole country in Tier 4 and the rest being in Tier 3.

As Boris said on Andrew Marr this morning that tighter restrictions will be coming, it just remains to be seen what those restrictions are, because I can't see much else they can do that will likely have any effect at all apart from closing schools and universities.

I think that when if the national lockdown happens, the government must lay out a plan as to how they will get out of it, once and for all.

SAGE should be reminded that their role is to provide advice, so that they don't start calli

They must specify what criteria (in terms of vaccination levels, case rates, current and predicted level of hospital admissions etc.) are going to be used to judge when restrictions can be lifted.

There should also be a roadmap of what restrictions are lifted and in what order.

There should be clear rules about what is and isn't allowed, so that we don't get police harrassing people in the supermarket for committing the cardinal sin of buying chocolate.

And the restrictions should be subject to a vote in parliament every two or three weeks, with the government being obliged to report to parliament every week on progress. So when if there is a balls up with the vaccination program, the government can be held to account. If the government loses the vote in parliament, then everywhere automatically reverts to the tier that they are in now.

Not sure that any of this is going to happen though.

Let's have a sweepstake on when tier 5 will start.

I am going to claim 00:01 on Saturday morning, following a broadcast from Boris on Friday night.

 

[DB]

I am going to claim 00:01 on Saturday morning, following a broadcast from Boris on Friday night.

How many jingoisitic 'we can beat this', 'beat the virus', 'One last push', etc comments (emphasised by banging the table) do you reckon he will need to communicate this?

 

[6862]

I am going to claim 00:01 on Saturday morning, following a broadcast from Boris on Friday night.

I'll predict 0001 Tuesday morning, following a speech tomorrow evening. I suspect they will brand it as national tier 5 to avoid having to go through that awkward issue of parliamentary scrutiny.

 

[Hadders]

People calling for further restrictions and a full lock down overlook the fat that Tier 4 restrictions are the same restrictions as the November lock down.

What I believe many people would like to see is a return to the lock down we had in March and April where things were certainly quieter. But legally and in guidance what was actually different back then? Schools were shut but I think that's about it. The real difference is that businesses and people voluntarily went over and above what they were required to do. For example takeaways were never mandated to close but almost all did.

Back then everyone went the extra mile under the promise that it would be a few weeks and we'd see off the virus. It was almost a bit of a laugh, a sort of holiday, the weather was excellent and it was all funded by the Government. Fast forward 9 months and no-one has the appetite to go back to those days. People can't cope with being cooped up inside all day, the weather's bad, people have got businesses to run etc, who's looking after the kids if they can't go to school etc.

It wouldn't be so bad if we knew a few weeks of pain would get rid of the virus but they've been saying that since March last year. It isn't going to go away and I think people have, quite understandably, reached a tipping point and are now just finding a way to live with it.

 

[bramling]

How many jingoisitic 'we can beat this', 'beat the virus', 'One last push', etc comments (emphasised by banging the table) do you reckon he will need to communicate this?

Likewise I claim a pound for every time we hear the word "alas".

My money's on 2000 Monday, that seems to be his favourite time. Though Nicola will have to move quick if we're to keep to that timetable!

 

[Class 33]

Usually it is the case that a surge in cases will mean a surge in hospital admissions and deaths over the proceeding few weeks. But whilst the number of cases is high at the moment, it seems the government, MP's from other parties, the media, etc don't seem to realise that that the effects of all these vaccinations will soon kick in within the next few weeks, which will mean hospital admissions and deaths will soon tumble down! Someone on here mentioned that this could start around mid January, which is only next week! The sooner this happens, and all these restrictions can start being eased, the better. It just can't some soon enough!

In a month or so time, it may be the case that we could still be having a high number of cases i.e. 55,000 or even 60,000+, but the hospital admissions, numbers in hospital, numbers on mechanical ventilator beds will be tumbling week on week. The government, other MP's, SAGE, etc, need to then stop with their fixation on the numbers of cases!

As someone else said on here, the government and other MP's have completely lost the plot on this!

 

[Wychwood93]

The only thing that has not, yet, been dumped on us is a curfew. Having said that, it would serve little use as virtually anything useful is shut. It could be something like 20.00 to 06.00 with more exemptions to add to the already plump list.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

The only thing that has not, yet, been dumped on us is a curfew. Having said that, it would serve little use as virtually anything useful is shut. It could be something like 20.00 to 06.00 with more exemptions to add to the already plump list.

Good luck with that idea. I am not going to be a*sed with explaining why I’m travelling home from work at 10pm, to officers, when the government deems me to be a key worker (and therefore have some magic immunity from coronavirus)

 

[duncanp]

How many jingoisitic 'we can beat this', 'beat the virus', 'One last push', etc comments (emphasised by banging the table) do you reckon he will need to communicate this?

3 or 4 I would think.

The only thing that has not, yet, been dumped on us is a curfew. Having said that, it would serve little use as virtually anything useful is shut. It could be something like 20.00 to 06.00 with more exemptions to add to the already plump list.

Well I think a curfew is almost certain then.

As you say, it would serve little use as most things are shut, but as the government must be seen to be doing something, and this is something, then it is odds on to go ahead.

Of course what is the betting that if Boris goes for 9pm to 5am, then Nicola Sturgeon goes for 8:30pm to 5:30am, and Mark Drakeford goes for 8:45pm to 5:45am, just to be different.

 

[Class 33]

Hoping like absolute mad that there won't be a full national lockdown(yes I know 78% of the country is effectively in lockdown) announced this week. Many people just won't be able to take going into lockdown yet again. I've read that some people have committed suicide as a result of finding out of another lockdown, as they just can't take it. Please god NO to yet another absolutely pointless full national lockdown. Think of the mental health of this country for goodness sake!!

 

[brad465]

One only has to glance through the "Have Your Say" comments section on the BBC news website to see that the new virus strain has given the unhinged a new lease of life.

I wish I could hibernate until the summer.

The thing about BBC thread comments though is no one side of the debate always wins, it usually favours whoever can explain/capitalise the subject of the story best. In this case rapidly rising infections and trouble in hospitals allows the pro-restriction bunch to take advantage, but on another day on a different thread entirely, the anti-restrictions lot can win: this is more easily possible when economic consequences, concerns with other health problems being missed and/or infections going down being the attached article's main subject. Furthermore users don't necessarily flip-flop their opinions, it's just a matter of which ones turn up on the day, in what probably is a good case of confirmation bias.

 

[duncanp]

Hoping like absolute mad that there won't be a full national lockdown(yes I know 78% of the country is effectively in lockdown) announced this week. Many people just won't be able to take going into lockdown yet again. I've read that some people have committed suicide as a result of finding out of another lockdown, as they just can't take it. Please god NO to yet another absolutely pointless full national lockdown. Think of the mental health of this country for goodness sake!!

This is why I would like the government to specify either a time limit on a lockdown, or have legally binding criteria on when the restrictions will be eased.

It is hope, or the absence of it, that has such a big effect on mental health, and the government must take this into account when deciding what to do.

 

[317 forever]

On that subject, I'm seeing breaking news reports coming through Sir Kier Starmer is calling for national restrictions to be announced in the next 24 hours, so if the trend of previous opposition statements leading to Government action is anything to go by, there'll be new national restrictions in 48 hours

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55521747


It sounds like Starmer is currently focusing more on schools for now as where new restrictions should be.

I'm beginning to think Starmer recommends things that he believes the government will soon do anyway, as a ploy to make the government look slow. These might not necessarily be things he'd do if he were leading a Labour government.

 

[WestCoast]

The only thing that has not, yet, been dumped on us is a curfew. Having said that, it would serve little use as virtually anything useful is shut. It could be something like 20.00 to 06.00 with more exemptions to add to the already plump list.

I think it's possible, many other countries are doing just that. The curfew seems to be adjusted based on the virus rates or whatever subjective criteria they use. It might reinforce the message to groups of friends going to each others houses at night instead of the pub not to do so, if this is as widespread as some are saying.

 

[6Gman]

The thing that I think would have the biggest impact would be drastically curtailing outdoor exercise. In my local area it's been absolutely heaving with people out for walks and such ever since tier 4 was announced.

Otherwise I'm not sure there is much else to do given that tier 4 is already a stay home order, carry on school closures, further restrictions on who can physically go to work, close takeaways and everything that's not a supermarket. None of seem particularly high impact measures besides school closures.

I don't think this means measures going on for longer. Getting to 2 million vaccinations as well will still start to have a drastic impact on hospital admissions & deaths once more of the vulnerable are covered. Which is ultimately all that matters for the government.

The problem may be (and I say may be because I don't know) that many of those having to be hospitalised are some way down the priority list. Feedback I've seen from the ICU (intensive care unit) staff is that over half their patients are under 60.

Hoping like absolute mad that there won't be a full national lockdown(yes I know 78% of the country is effectively in lockdown) announced this week. Many people just won't be able to take going into lockdown yet again. I've read that some people have committed suicide as a result of finding out of another lockdown, as they just can't take it. Please god NO to yet another absolutely pointless full national lockdown. Think of the mental health of this country for goodness sake!!

Mental health is undoubtedly an issue but is there any evidence, stronger than anecdote, of the suicide rate increasing? The figures I have seen suggest that Jan-Sep 2020 figures were actually down on 2019.

 

[Domh245]

What I believe many people would like to see is a return to the lock down we had in March and April where things were certainly quieter. But legally and in guidance what was actually different back then? Schools were shut but I think that's about it. The real difference is that businesses and people voluntarily went over and above what they were required to do. For example takeaways were never mandated to close but almost all did.

Back then everyone went the extra mile under the promise that it would be a few weeks and we'd see off the virus. It was almost a bit of a laugh, a sort of holiday, the weather was excellent and it was all funded by the Government. Fast forward 9 months and no-one has the appetite to go back to those days. People can't cope with being cooped up inside all day, the weather's bad, people have got businesses to run etc, who's looking after the kids if they can't go to school etc.

It wouldn't be so bad if we knew a few weeks of pain would get rid of the virus but they've been saying that since March last year. It isn't going to go away and I think people have, quite understandably, reached a tipping point and are now just finding a way to live with it.

You're absolutely right about the first lockdown - apart from schools there's little difference to now from a legal point of view, although many of the businesses that closed in the first lockdown was done to give them a chance to become covid secure (read, put up perspex everywhere and buy hand sanitiser) rather than any out of the goodness of their own heart - although I suspect the rapid rollout of the furlough scheme aided the decision to close things down more readily. The other important thing to consider is that back in March, considerably less was known about the virus and so many people were fearful of it, which helped to drive compliance with the restrictions right up. As time has progressed and more and more people have realised that it won't affect their health much (or alternatively, know nobody who's had it and so it has little personal meaning), they've become a lot less fearful of it, and so compliance has dropped.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==

Mental health is undoubtedly an issue but is there any evidence, stronger than anecdote, of the suicide rate increasing? The figures I have seen suggest that Jan-Sep 2020 figures were actually down on 2019.

I assume the figures you refer to are the provisional ONS numbers, which come with the massive caveat that they aren't suicide occurrences, but suicide registrations - ie the completion of the coroners inquest. Shutting down the court system for a large part of the first 3 quarters will naturally result in a lower number - Given that in 2019 the median registration delay (time between event and completion of inquest) was nearly half a year we'll have to wait until the 2021 data before we start to see the real 'confirmed' numbers for this year.

I would also just say that suicides aren't the be-all mental health indicator, indeed it's the final tragic step on the ladder. There's plenty of other ways in which mental health issues will affect people, usually short of attempting suicide, which can still leave people rather crippled

 

[DB]

Mental health is undoubtedly an issue but is there any evidence, stronger than anecdote, of the suicide rate increasing? The figures I have seen suggest that Jan-Sep 2020 figures were actually down on 2019.

ONS Data here (by quarter):

Deaths caused by suicide by quarter in England - Office for National Statistics

Provisional rate and number of suicide deaths registered in England per quarter. These are official statistics in development.

www.ons.gov.uk

The stats for this year only go up Q3, and there is a note that:

The lower number of registered deaths in the second quarter of 2020 likely reflects delays to inquests caused by the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) on the coroner's service in England and Wales.

So it seems that there isn't currently reliable data - and Q2 (which currently looks lower than normal) is the quarter when a difference is most likely - only a few weeks of the restriction period were in Q1, and restrictions were mostly at a lower level in Q3.

It will be interesting to see the revised Q2 figure, and the Q4 one which might also be bad.

 

[6Gman]

I assume the figures you refer to are the provisional ONS numbers, which come with the massive caveat that they aren't suicide occurrences, but suicide registrations - ie the completion of the coroners inquest. Shutting down the court system for a large part of the first 3 quarters will naturally result in a lower number - Given that in 2019 the median registration delay (time between event and completion of inquest) was nearly half a year we'll have to wait until the 2021 data before we start to see the real 'confirmed' numbers for this year.

I would also just say that suicides aren't the be-all mental health indicator, indeed it's the final tragic step on the ladder. There's plenty of other ways in which mental health issues will affect people, usually short of attempting suicide, which can still leave people rather crippled

Yes, I would agree with all of that. It would certainly explain the remarkable fall in Quarter 2 of the year.

Of course, it's also worth pointing out that the death figures aren't the be-all indicator of Covid's impact either, with plenty of evidence of long-term health issues for some of those who have survived.

 

[northernchris]

Hoping like absolute mad that there won't be a full national lockdown(yes I know 78% of the country is effectively in lockdown) announced this week. Many people just won't be able to take going into lockdown yet again. I've read that some people have committed suicide as a result of finding out of another lockdown, as they just can't take it. Please god NO to yet another absolutely pointless full national lockdown. Think of the mental health of this country for goodness sake!!

I saw on BBC News earlier that the acting Mayor of Liverpool is calling for a nationwide lockdown, although why she has to interfere with anything outside of Merseyside I've no idea. According to her we can cope with another lockdown

Covid: Liverpool's leaders call for new national lockdown - BBC News

Liverpool's leaders have called on the government to impose a new nationwide lockdown to halt the spread of the new variant of Covid-19.
Acting mayor Wendy Simon and the city council's cabinet said urgent action is needed because the rise in coronavirus cases had reached "alarming levels".
They said it was "self-evident" the tier system has not curbed the variant.
It had been concentrated in London and south-east England but is believed to be spreading north.
Cases in Liverpool have almost trebled in the past two weeks to 350 per 100,000.
This is despite the city successfully leading the national pilot for community testing, which resulted in it becoming the first city to be taken out of tier 3 and moved into tier 2.
However, the recent rise in cases meant Liverpool returned to tier three on Thursday.

Speaking to the BBC News Channel, Ms Simon said: "I think the difficulty with this new strain of the virus is the speed at which it is infecting.
"What we have seen in these last weeks is that the tier system hasn't worked with this particular strain of the virus.
"The way the numbers are going, we're likely to go into tier four very, very quickly."
Ms Simon said officials wanted to "pre-empt that catastrophe" and "recover the economy quicker", adding: "We feel these three things - the mass vaccination, the mass testing and certainly a lockdown for a period - is what we need to get the city up and running again.
"There's a responsibility on us all to act promptly and bring it under control as soon as we can."
In an earlier statement, Ms Simon joined officials at the Labour-run city council to urge the government to "listen to those at the frontline, both in our hospitals and frontline services".
"We as a nation can cope with a lockdown," the statement said. "We have before and we can again."
The city's leaders also called for "an additional package of welfare and economic support" to address the "pain for our retail and hospitality sectors".

 

[DB]

Of course, it's also worth pointing out that the death figures aren't the be-all indicator of Covid's impact either, with plenty of evidence of long-term health issues for some of those who have survived.

So-called 'Long Covid' seems to be pretty much just post-viral fatigue, which can and does result from many viral infections. It's difficult to tell how common it acutally is as the media and politicians are clearly playing it up to spread fear.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==

"We as a nation can cope with a lockdown," the statement said. "We have before and we can again."

And what makes her such an expert on the subject?

What about those people who can't cope with it and end up killing themselves? Because there will be some. Presumably, now that government (at all levels) has been abolished and replaced with the Covid Task Force, suicides don't matter because it's not Covid. Disgusting.

Besides, what does she envisage a 'lockdown' as looking like? Tier 4 is already pretty much the same as April apart from schools being open. If she thinks that calling it a lockdown (and even shutting schools) will lead to similar compliance levels seen earlier in the year then she clearly hasn't noticed how levels of compliance have declined.

 

[brad465]

I'm beginning to think Starmer recommends things that he believes the government will soon do anyway, as a ploy to make the government look slow. These might not necessarily be things he'd do if he were leading a Labour government.

This is very hypothetical, but based on current opinions across the main parties Labour would struggle to maintain tight restrictions, because the opposition in Parliament and Media outlets would push a very strong anti-restriction narrative. Right now the Government is in the unusual position that when it comes to the overall response it is fighting 2 fronts at once.

 

[Yew]

I think that when if the national lockdown happens, the government must lay out a plan as to how they will get out of it, once and for all.

SAGE should be reminded that their role is to provide advice, so that they don't start calli

They must specify what criteria (in terms of vaccination levels, case rates, current and predicted level of hospital admissions etc.) are going to be used to judge when restrictions can be lifted.

There should also be a roadmap of what restrictions are lifted and in what order.

There should be clear rules about what is and isn't allowed, so that we don't get police harrassing people in the supermarket for committing the cardinal sin of buying chocolate.

And the restrictions should be subject to a vote in parliament every two or three weeks, with the government being obliged to report to parliament every week on progress. So when if there is a balls up with the vaccination program, the government can be held to account. If the government loses the vote in parliament, then everywhere automatically reverts to the tier that they are in now.

Not sure that any of this is going to happen though.

Let's have a sweepstake on when tier 5 will start.

I am going to claim 00:01 on Saturday morning, following a broadcast from Boris on Friday night.

Early on, Starmer pressed the governemnt for their exit plan, and it seemed to backfire massively with the party. :/

 

[island]

Masks could be useful in future winters even after the restrictions have been lifted. They can keep our face warm before we enter shops, trains, buses etc

I have no issue with anyone who wants to wear a face covering by choice continuing to do so for as long as they feel like it. Their mandation must end.

It is hope, or the absence of it, that has such a big effect on mental health, and the government must take this into account when deciding what to do.

Indeed. But there is little evidence they will.

 

[6Gman]

So-called 'Long Covid' seems to be pretty much just post-viral fatigue, which can and does result from many viral infections. It's difficult to tell how common it acutally is as the media and politicians are clearly playing it up to spread fear.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==

As someone who has suffered from post-viral fatigue for over 20 years (it ended my railway career and brought most of my much enjoyed travelling to a close) I'm not sure that "just post-viral fatigue" is the appropriate description.

There also seems to be evidence that the post-Covid effects may be much wider than "classic" PVF.

 

[DB]

As someone who has suffered from post-viral fatigue for over 20 years (it ended my railway career and brought most of my much enjoyed travelling to a close) I'm not sure that "just post-viral fatigue" is the appropriate description.

There also seems to be evidence that the post-Covid effects may be much wider than "classic" PVF.

OK, it can be serious for some people, for sure - but most people do get over it within a few months.

I've yet to see any actual evidence for this 'Long Covid' being anything different to post-viral fatigue.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Keir Starmer calling for a full national lockdown within the next 24 hours!!! Dear oh dear oh dear. We don't need yet another full national lockdown Mr Starmer! The damage that would do would do even more catastrophic damage to the economy and the nation's mental health to what has already been done. Absolutely NO to another full national lockdown!

Tier 4 is a 97% lockdown that is wrecking the economy already a full lockdown achieves very little. With the level of cases as they are people are either disobeying on a massive scale, the testing system isn't accurate or the virus is in the air and your at risk of just getting it - ive no idea what the cause is but scientists need to understand this before they just keep ramping up the restrictions without any understanding of what is actually working.

 

[DB]

With the level of cases as they are people are either disobeying on a massive scale, the testing system isn't accurate or the virus is in the air and your at risk of just getting it

All the evidence from comparing restriction dates with peaks of infection throughour the world suggests that restrictions simply don't work and it spreads anyway, with at most a slight slowdown but possibly not even that. If the New Improved Version is more infectious, as claimed, then restrictions are even less likely to be effective.

 

[bramling]

I think it's possible, many other countries are doing just that. The curfew seems to be adjusted based on the virus rates or whatever subjective criteria they use. It might reinforce the message to groups of friends going to each others houses at night instead of the pub not to do so, if this is as widespread as some are saying.

Or they could just stay the night...

 

[DB]

Or they could just stay the night...

Which is what will happen, or they will just risk it knowing how unlikely they are to be stopped by the police - if some politicians think they can go back to the compliance levels seen in April then they are deluded.