When will restrictions finally end?

[bramling]

We're definitely in the realm of doing things to be seen to be doing things.

It’s all just insane now.

I see BJ is on the BBC this morning, again talking vaguely about “getting the virus down”. IMV that’s unacceptably vague from someone who by now should have a pretty detailed handle on all this.

I’m definitely getting the sense at my work that an ever increasing number of people are simply past caring now. If they get infected they get infected, and take the consequences.

 

[The Ham]

The thing that I think would have the biggest impact would be drastically curtailing outdoor exercise. In my local area it's been absolutely heaving with people out for walks and such ever since tier 4 was announced.

Otherwise I'm not sure there is much else to do given that tier 4 is already a stay home order, carry on school closures, further restrictions on who can physically go to work, close takeaways and everything that's not a supermarket. None of seem particularly high impact measures besides school closures.

I don't think this means measures going on for longer. Getting to 2 million vaccinations as well will still start to have a drastic impact on hospital admissions & deaths once more of the vulnerable are covered. Which is ultimately all that matters for the government.

The next step for limiting those who work going on would be to say that if it's possible (even if not productive) to work from home then you must (rather than you should). As I suspect that there's still a fair few who are going into work when they could be at home.

However having said that, the numbers are likely to be low overall and would probably only be viable for a limited period (i.e. for two weeks and someone putting off some of their tasks until the return to the "office") before they'd run out of work and be put on furlough.

If things got dire the government could say that unless healthcare workers or the distribution of food (not takeaways) or other critical tasks and shutting everything else down for 2 weeks (however they'd have to pay 100%) to get cases down fast.

Although that would cause a lot of upset.

 

[Richard Scott]

It’s all just insane now

I’m definitely getting the sense at my work that an ever increasing number of people are simply past caring now. If they get infected they get infected, and take the consequences.

I've definitely reached that stage!

 

[kristiang85]

What further punishments can our Glorious Leader impose on us? Closure of schools and places of worship? Closure of takeaways, click and collect, shortening shop opening hours? Total ban on exercise?

Well we saw in Italy and France people needing permits to leave their house in April.

I'm pretty sure Boris will baulk at that, although I don't trust the SAGE types to not suggest it. But there's definitely still a lot more scope for government induced misery.

However, I think it will just be limited to school closures.

 

[bramling]

The next step for limiting those who work going on would be to say that if it's possible (even if not productive) to work from home then you must (rather than you should). As I suspect that there's still a fair few who are going into work when they could be at home.

However having said that, the numbers are likely to be low overall and would probably only be viable for a limited period (i.e. for two weeks and someone putting off some of their tasks until the return to the "office") before they'd run out of work and be put on furlough.

If things got dire the government could say that unless healthcare workers or the distribution of food (not takeaways) or other critical tasks and shutting everything else down for 2 weeks (however they'd have to pay 100%) to get cases down fast.

Although that would cause a lot of upset.

The thing is, even if they went right to the limit on workplaces, a lot of people would simply use the time to socialise in indoor household settings, which has quite obviously been going on all along, except perhaps right in the height of the original lockdown. This simply isn’t going to stop, and there simply isn’t any effective means of enforcing it - though I suppose it might be possible to threaten a very hefty fine as a deterrent which may influence some (though won’t exactly do neighbourly relations any good in the medium term!).

I think we’re up the point where Boris and company have lost any buy-in by having pee’d people off for too long now. There’s little more they can do in terms of restrictions that’s going to do much.

 

[Mag_seven]

Total ban on exercise?

I hope not because we all know that obesity is a big risk factor in becoming seriously ill with COVID so lets just make us all more obese.

 

[bramling]

I hope not because we all know that obesity is a big risk factor in becoming seriously ill with COVID so lets just make us all more obese.

Not wise at all. Some shielding people in particular have put a lot of weight on. I don’t feel particularly healthy, despite trying to maintain as much walking as normal (it hasn’t helped that this has been quite a tedious experience since tier 4 came in, with too many people around to be able to enjoy the outdoors round my way, and any rural footpath now like a quagmire).

 

[Gadget88]

I am surprised to read comments on Twitter about banning exercise and going outdoors it’s quite scary how people want us to be locked on bedrooms in a worse lockdown than March.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

BJ on Andrew Marr show just hinted that tougher restrictions may be needed. Also only 530k of AZ vaccine this week. Looking likely that restrictions may end up being in place for longer than we think

530k has been the number since last week but AZ forecast they can get delivery up to 2m by mid January which is an improvement on early Feb. BoJo also questioned over phizer vaccination and says we have millions of those (whats bought and whats actually delivered are fundamentally different) but i can't you give you the numbers Marr as usual lets him off the hook. By now they should have published a plan and thats what Nadhim Zahawi is supposed to be leading but hes never trotted out to give a briefing. So I can only conclude there is no plan and I accept its a volatile situation but better to have a projection and refine it every week. This can be used to give people hope that the vaccination is coming and motivate them to keep hunkered down.

 

[Gadget88]

Tell me why we need to ban exercise for 2,000 cases a day in Scotland it’s England that has the problem! Shetland has about 80 cases.

 

[Reliablebeam]

I think if we distil it down there are three areas which the government has a high level of control over which you could reasonably 'toughen' and have measurable and testable effects on the 'R' rate:

1. Schools, i.e. widespread closures similar to march
2. Shutter more 'non-essential' workplaces
3. Stop 'take out' services

Of these, none are particularly attractive but having read and reflected on that LSHTM pre-print, their case around school transmission did look pretty convincing (caveat not peer-reviewed and not my science area). Options 2 and 3 would be quite damaging economically and frankly, I can't see them making much difference. Most workplaces are reasonably covid-secure and operating at much reduced capacity. None of our purely office based staff have been in since March. I can't imagine the local Costa or Starbucks being a nexus of infection!

Then there are the petty and vindictive measures the government seems to like putting in place, like the bizarre rules on social contact and 'exercise', potential expansion of masking, curfews and so forth. I've woken up every day these last three weeks wondering what nonsense they'll come out with next. The other issue with these interventions, is there seems to be little handle on how much difference they actually make to the R value. Some are possibly counter-productive as some of you have pointed out but fall into 'seen to be doing something' category. I'd also say many of these are more difficult to actually enforce than any of the three options outlined above. I think, unfortunately for the government, a lot of people have clocked that the ability of the Police to enforce a lot of these measures is limited. The few Police officers we have to cover the three fairly large towns in my area spend most of their time whizzing up and down to domestics and RTA's.

Round my way, in a 'tier 4' area, you would not believe we are supposed to be in some kind of lockdown. Lots of people and cars milling around. Swapping notes with a few mates and colleagues, there seems to be a lot of people out and about through exasperation and boredom, which doesn't bode well.

 

[kristiang85]

Round my way, in a 'tier 4' area, you would not believe we are supposed to be in some kind of lockdown. Lots of people and cars milling around. Swapping notes with a few mates and colleagues, there seems to be a lot of people out and about through exasperation and boredom, which doesn't bode well.

Agreed. I'm in T4 too: I went for a long walk yesterday, and the parks were packed - certainly a lot more so than in March, and that was despite the temperatures being 2 degrees.

Definitely many people seem to be very loose with it all now.

 

[Reliablebeam]

Agreed. I'm in T4 too: I went for a long walk yesterday, and the parks were packed - certainly a lot more so than in March, and that was despite the temperatures being 2 degrees.

Definitely many people seem to be very loose with it all now.

The paths are quite badly churned up round here, in a way I've never seen before due to so much use! If they try and ban the exercise 'excuse' they might have some trouble enforcing that..

 

[Bantamzen]

This link is to the vaccination calculator that works out roughly when you will receive it:

Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK

The vaccine queue calculator for the UK estimates where you are in the queue to get your COVID vaccine based on your age, health, and job.

www.omnicalculator.com

Mine was showing June-September 2021 until today. Note ‘was’. It is now showing January-June 2022. The vaccination schedule is so far behind, this is another reason why I expect restrictions to be with us until next April.

Once again, we don't need the entire population to be vaccinated to reduce the problems for the NHS.

 

[kristiang85]

Well we saw in Italy and France people needing permits to leave their house in April.

I'm pretty sure Boris will baulk at that, although I don't trust the SAGE types to not suggest it. But there's definitely still a lot more scope for government induced misery.

However, I think it will just be limited to school closures.

Hmm to follow up on this post, my optimism might be misplaced if this article from a few days back I saw posted elsewhere is anywhere near true. I have no idea about the reputation of this news outlet, but it makes for depressing reading.

Usually what Wales or Scotland does. Boris follows eventually.

But as I said, I can't say I know how reliable this outlet is or if they are just clickbaiting using the old "inside source".

global247news.com

The hard regulations being considered are as follows according to the inside source.
Masks to be worn at all times outside of the home by all citizens unless medically exempt. Instant-on the spot fines of £100 for flouters.
All residents of Wales to be completely confined to their homes.
No exercise period outside – stamping out previous lockdown flouting of regulations.
Residents only allowed to leave home for essentials that are, Food and medical supplies which have to be from the resident’s nearest location. IE nearest shop when it comes to food supplies.
Dog walking and pet toiletry to be restricted to 200 meters from the home.
No home visits under any circumstances apart from Doctors or Nurses in relation to medication or treatments.

 

[Scotrail12]

Hmm to follow up on this post, my optimism might be misplaced if this article from a few days back I saw posted elsewhere is anywhere near true. I have no idea about the reputation of this news outlet, but it makes for depressing reading if anywhere near true.

Usually what Wales or Scotland does. Boris follows eventually.

But as I said, I can't say I know how reliable this outlet is or if they are just clickbaiting using the old "inside source".

global247news.com

I'm genuinely convinced that Mr. Drakeford is a sadist with quite extreme mental health issues - he makes Sturgeon look like Mother Theresa.

 

[BJames]

Hmm to follow up on this post, my optimism might be misplaced if this article from a few days back I saw posted elsewhere is anywhere near true. I have no idea about the reputation of this news outlet, but it makes for depressing reading if anywhere near true.

Usually what Wales or Scotland does. Boris follows eventually.

But as I said, I can't say I know how reliable this outlet is or if they are just clickbaiting using the old "inside source".

global247news.com

These measures would be unacceptable. I will be truly surprised if everyone actually follows these rules because this is beginning to push their luck now.

 

[philosopher]

I am surprised to read comments on Twitter about banning exercise and going outdoors it’s quite scary how people want us to be locked on bedrooms in a worse lockdown than March.

My worry is that a very large proportion of the population I think will not be comfortable with there being no restrictions unless Covid is eliminated. Unless the vaccine is amazingly effective in stopping transmission, this realistically is not going to happen in the UK. Hence this segment of the population will keep on demanding restrictions, even if there are no longer any issues with hospital capacity.

 

[C J Snarzell]

What further punishments can our Glorious Leader impose on us? Closure of schools and places of worship? Closure of takeaways, click and collect, shortening shop opening hours? Total ban on exercise?

Does Boris Johnson not realise his son will become the most bullied/hated child in his class when he starts school in a few years time!!!

CJ

 

[duncanp]

If there is a "no home visits under any circumstances apart from Doctors or Nurses" restriction, I sincerely hope Drakeford has a burst pipe or a blocked toilet the day after those restrictions are introduced.

And if he attempts to order food online, I hope they turn round to him to and tell him to get lost, as the delivery staff are not allowed to leave home.

Completely confining people to their homes will be very difficult to enforce, and there will have to be some exemptions, such as caring for elderly relatives.

And I predict a boom in the sales of fake NHS ID badges, as used by various drug dealers and other criminals during the first lockdown.

 

[Mag_seven]

IE nearest shop when it comes to food supplies.

They can get stuffed - what if your nearest shop is one of those over priced convenience stores with a very limited supply. It's not the job of the state to dictate where I get my food shopping.

 

[matt]

That news site that is reporting doesn't look particularly reputable to me so I'd probably reserve anger until there is a better source.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Disability hate tcrime is slowly going up as people are blaming the vulnerable for these restrictions. Ive got MS yet ive kept on driving buses in lockdown snd I've been subject to verbal abuse

Costco are already refusing access to anyone not wearing a mask or visor. No exceptions. This is the start of a slippery slope and should be of great concern

 

[317 forever]

It‘s not “freedom” until all the face coverings can go in the bin.

Masks could be useful in future winters even after the restrictions have been lifted. They can keep our face warm before we enter shops, trains, buses etc

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==

I can’t imagine life back to normal until spring 2022. Something will happen that prevents any major easing of restrictions this summer. And then it’ll be winter and we’ll be protecting the NHS once more. April 2022 is my guess.

One unknown that could delay the easing of restrictions beyond the temporary relaxations we had in the summer is that we do not yet know how long immunity generated by the vaccine will last.

 

[Hadders]

Agreed. I'm in T4 too: I went for a long walk yesterday, and the parks were packed - certainly a lot more so than in March, and that was despite the temperatures being 2 degrees.

Definitely many people seem to be very loose with it all now.

Not sure what you're saying here. Are you saying that people being in an outdoor park is bad, but ok for you to go out for a long walk? The chance of the virus spreading in an outdoor park is tiny.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

I am surprised to read comments on Twitter about banning exercise and going outdoors it’s quite scary how people want us to be locked on bedrooms in a worse lockdown than March.

Johnson is totally against people having to apply for permits to leave home. He is issuing free travel vouchers for those obeying the ‘Stay Home’ advice, though

(Image shows fake rail ticket from Living Room to Back Garden. It’s even route restricted!)

 

[bramling]

Not sure what you're saying here. Are you saying that people being in an outdoor park is bad, but ok for you to go out for a long walk? The chance of the virus spreading in an outdoor park is tiny.

As someone who normally enjoys peaceful long rural walks, I find the current situation enraging, especially the way everything near me is now a mud-bath. However, I am realistic enough to recognise that pretty much every other leisure activity for people has been taken away.

To be honest I still don’t see the value in closing non-essential shops. I think it would be more beneficial to have as much open as possible, in order to spread people around. Any notion of “stay at home” is a complete farce - people simply aren’t doing it, so any policy centred around that (as tier 4 is) is simply a fallacy.

 

[317 forever]

As someone who normally enjoys peaceful long rural walks, I find the current situation enraging, especially the way everything near me is now a mud-bath. However, I am realistic enough to recognise that pretty much every other leisure activity for people has been taken away.

To be honest I still don’t see the value in closing non-essential shops. I think it would be more beneficial to have as much open as possible, in order to spread people around. Any notion of “stay at home” is a complete farce - people simply aren’t doing it, so any policy centred around that (as tier 4 is) is simply a fallacy.

One farce, even though quite welcoming for most of us, is that we are allowed out for unlimited exercise on our own. So the instruction "Stay at home unless it's for unlimited exercise" is as good as a contradiction.

 

[kristiang85]

Not sure what you're saying here. Are you saying that people being in an outdoor park is bad, but ok for you to go out for a long walk? The chance of the virus spreading in an outdoor park is tiny.

No, not at all. I was merely making an observation that when I went for my walks in March/April, the regular places I went past were eerily quiet. Now, they seem as normal, if not busier because other places of entertainment for families and couples were shut (despite the cold). So that says to me people are giving less notice of the fear mongering this time around.

I'm fully supportive of people who want to go out and enjoy fresh air; being confined to homes is no good for anybody. Given there is little to no evidence of the virus being spread outside, I'm vehemently against any restrictions on outdoor activities.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Jan 2021 ==

To be honest I still don’t see the value in closing non-essential shops. I think it would be more beneficial to have as much open as possible, in order to spread people around. Any notion of “stay at home” is a complete farce - people simply aren’t doing it, so any policy centred around that (as tier 4 is) is simply a fallacy.

I agree with this.

 

[Hadders]

As someone who normally enjoys peaceful long rural walks, I find the current situation enraging, especially the way everything near me is now a mud-bath. However, I am realistic enough to recognise that pretty much every other leisure activity for people has been taken away.

To be honest I still don’t see the value in closing non-essential shops. I think it would be more beneficial to have as much open as possible, in order to spread people around. Any notion of “stay at home” is a complete farce - people simply aren’t doing it, so any policy centred around that (as tier 4 is) is simply a fallacy.

Absolutely agree with you. A quiet walk round my way is now nothing of the sort as walking is just about the only leisure activity that people can do at the moment.

I agree that non-essential retail should be open, better for people to be able to engage in leisure activity in a controlled environment (which non-essential retail is as long as they follow covid secure guidelines) rather than piling round each others houses as there's nothing better to do. Also better for the economy.