When will restrictions finally end?

[duncanp]

I can’t imagine life back to normal until spring 2022. Something will happen that prevents any major easing of restrictions this summer. And then it’ll be winter and we’ll be protecting the NHS once more. April 2022 is my guess.

If we need to close down the economy every winter in order to "protect the NHS", then quite frankly the NHS isn't worth protecting, and it needs to be reformed so that it operates in a similar manner to France, Germany, Spain and most other Western European nations.

Everyone needs to remember that if we do not have a functioning economy, then we will not be able to afford an NHS that can provide a suitable level of healthcare in the long term future.

We cannot eliminate COVID-19, at least in the short term, and it is dangerous to try and pretend otherwise. What seems to be feasible is reducing the number and severity of cases to a level where the NHS can cope, in the same way that we manage seasonal flu. Over time, a certain level of herd immunity will develop naturally, which will further increase our ability to cope.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I can’t imagine life back to normal until spring 2022. Something will happen that prevents any major easing of restrictions this summer. And then it’ll be winter and we’ll be protecting the NHS once more. April 2022 is my guess.

Maybe a handful of restrictions will remain in place such as maintaining social distancing in clinical environments like hospitals and GP surgeries, maybe the use of face masks may be enforced in some environments long term. However, if this lockdown/tier misery is inflicted on the UK population beyond the spring of this year (2021) we will be facing some devastating fallouts.

- mental health will become an epidemic in itself. I suspects there has already been an increase in suicides.
- the economy - already in a fragile state with unemployment set to reach its highest levels since the early 1980s.
- civil unrest - generally riots don't take place in the winter, but if these restrictions continue we could be faced with violent scenes during the spring and summer.
- cancer treatments & other illness - these have been completely put to one side during much of the epidemic at the cost of thousands of more lives.

These four issues alone are enough reason why the government needs to put the brakes on the tier system by the spring and at least make every effort to get the country moving again.

CJ

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It would probably help if they fired off some of the reporters who are constantly poking the hornets nest.

I'd love to see the back of Kuenssberg and Peston for a while - maybe send them off on a sabbatical once this chaos simmers down.

I'm hoping we don't have to be inflicted with Kay Burley again come the summer - another one with too much ego and double standards.

CJ

Totally agree the majority of journalists approach at these briefing sessions was very counter productive asking schoolboy questions or asking govt to admit they've got it wrong was utterly pointless. Labour opposition are also caricatured in this approach of wanting to catch them out. What we need is probing questions that relate to the situation like "when is the next delivery of the vaccine from Astra Zenca due and in what quantity", get facts get real information that gives a firm plan. The govt could also help itself with a bit of humility and it has nothing to fear this isn't of there making sure there may have been policy response failures but just say we expected this outcome but it hasn't happened this is where we are headed now ie manage expectations.

If we need to close down the economy every winter in order to "protect the NHS", then quite frankly the NHS isn't worth protecting, and it needs to be reformed so that it operates in a similar manner to France, Germany, Spain and most other Western European nations.

Everyone needs to remember that if we do not have a functioning economy, then we will not be able to afford an NHS that can provide a suitable level of healthcare in the long term future.

We cannot eliminate COVID-19, at least in the short term, and it is dangerous to try and pretend otherwise. What seems to be feasible is reducing the number and severity of cases to a level where the NHS can cope, in the same way that we manage seasonal flu. Over time, a certain level of herd immunity will develop naturally, which will further increase our ability to cope.

There is nothing more urgent now that ramping up vaccination programme yet where is Nadhim Zahawi in explaining whats going on? The whole of the govt machine should be rewired to support the roll out and no bad thing if its run by the military from where im sitting along with the likes of DHL along with training up as many medical people as possible to get this moving. Round here 100's of people volunteered to help on the menial tasks at the vaccination centre so this a real opportunity for BoJo to engender his love of Churchill and come up with a motto like Jab for Normality ie like Dig for Victory and get the whole country behind this as we can all see its a way out.

 

[duncanp]

This article in The Telegraph echoes what I was saying earlier

Access Restricted

I learned an important thing from working with Jonathan Van Tam: “Never begin an intervention,” he used to say, “unless you are sure how and when to end it.” A big problem of Covid-19 management in the UK has been its lack of clarity about precisely this: when do we stop lockdowns, face coverings and social distancing, and dial our lives back to 2019?

As the vaccination programme rolls out, the average risk of serious illness or death for anyone in the UK is falling very rapidly. This process is being accelerated by the introduction of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and the decision to give first doses to as many people as possible.

No current vaccine has been shown to stop transmission of the infection, which is why vaccination passports 
are pointless. If you do get infected, though, vaccination means that you are very unlikely to need hospitalisation and even less 
likely to die.

Well before the end of Phase 1 – sometime hopefully in late March or April – vaccinated people will have little more risk of serious illness or death than a healthy 16 to 60-year-old. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have been fewer than 400 deaths in that group.

The risk of “Long Covid” is real but should not be exaggerated. Many reported cases can be explained in one of two ways. First, the easy availability of antibiotics over the last 70 years has led us to forget how long recovery can take from any infection that has a big impact on the immune system. Viral infections cannot be treated with antibiotics and “post-viral syndrome” is well recognised.

Second, the physical consequences of any prolonged period under sedation in intensive care can be confused with the impact of Covid-19. Muscles deteriorate very quickly and psychological distress is common. Thankfully, the vaccine programme will greatly reduce the numbers of people who have to experience intensive care.

The challenge that faces us as a society now is to decide between two views of the future. Are we going to try to pursue the elimination of Covid-19 within the UK, regardless of the social and economic cost, or are we going to decide on what we consider to be a tolerable level of deaths in order to enable a return to the life we considered normal before 2020? With the extension of the tier system across much of the country yesterday and warnings that schools could be closed until February, with a disastrous effect on children, it is clear that this is a debate that needs to be had urgently. The sooner we can begin to dismantle restrictions, the better.

The Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty, pressed the need for such a debate during evidence he gave to the science and technology select committee on December 9. “At a certain point, society, through political leaders, elected ministers and Parliament,” he said, would have to decide on what is an appropriate level of risk, “just as we accept that in an average year 7,000 die of flu and in a bad flu year 20,000 people die of flu”.

He also recognised that it was “very unlikely that we will get to a zero level of risk”, and that deciding the level of Covid we are willing to accept relative to the damage that is being done to society and the economy is ultimately a political question and not one that could or should be left to medics and doctors.

He is far from alone in holding such a view. Dr Michael Ryan, head of the World Health Organisation Emergencies Programme, agreed, in an end of year message, that societies would do better to focus on getting back to full strength, rather than on the “moonshot of eradication”.

Unfortunately, a significant faction of medics and scientists do not seem to agree. Their goal is to eliminate respiratory infections – even one as trivial as Covid-19 will be in a post-vaccine world. It is possible that we could abolish this cause of death by continuing the restrictions of 2020 indefinitely – the problem, of course, is that we would simply die from something else.

The scientists who support such a strategy are genuinely trying to make the world a better place according to their ideals. But their vision is of a future where people walk every day in fear for their lives. The rest of us should not accept this.

The experienced clinicians that I have been lucky to work with over the last 50 years share Prof Whitty’s more balanced view. They know that they cannot deliver immortality and that quantity of life should not be confused with quality. I suspect many citizens will share that view. But if we want to turn the clock back to 2019, we cannot assume that this will happen unless our representatives demand that democracy prevails over iatocracy – rule by medics.

At some point, the Government has to say to some of its pandemic advisers: “Thank you for your service to the country – but it is time to go home.”

 

[kristiang85]

Totally agree the majority of journalists approach at these briefing sessions was very counter productive asking schoolboy questions or asking govt to admit they've got it wrong was utterly pointless. Labour opposition are also caricatured in this approach of wanting to catch them out. What we need is probing questions that relate to the situation like "when is the next delivery of the vaccine from Astra Zenca due and in what quantity", get facts get real information that gives a firm plan. The govt could also help itself with a bit of humility and it has nothing to fear this isn't of there making sure there may have been policy response failures but just say we expected this outcome but it hasn't happened this is where we are headed now ie manage expectations.

There is nothing more urgent now that ramping up vaccination programme yet where is Nadhim Zahawi in explaining whats going on? The whole of the govt machine should be rewired to support the roll out and no bad thing if its run by the military from where im sitting along with the likes of DHL along with training up as many medical people as possible to get this moving. Round here 100's of people volunteered to help on the menial tasks at the vaccination centre so this a real opportunity for BoJo to engender his love of Churchill and come up with a motto like Jab for Normality ie like Dig for Victory and get the whole country behind this as we can all see its a way out.

The questions at the briefings are so pointless. They start out with a couple of planted public questions which basically give Boris a chance to confirm his dodgy data, and then the journalists just ask the most inane and pointless questions that do not help the public (although Sam Coates asked some decent ones last time).

Does anybody even know how they find the public to ask their 'questions'?

 

[island]

Whilst the rules state no travel into or out of a tier 4 area, I did manage to get home from my father's place (who I am bubbled with) in Salford in near record time today, and without being stopped to enquire why I am not imprisoned in my home. We should have these lockdowns more often, so much nicer spending four hours fifteen minutes on the road than six and a half hours for the same journey.





Just kidding.

It is permissible to travel to visit your support bubble elsewhere in England without limit as to distance.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The questions at the briefings are so pointless. They start out with a couple of planted public questions which basically give Boris a chance to confirm his dodgy data, and then the journalists just ask the most inane and pointless questions that do not help the public (although Sam Coates asked some decent ones last time).

Does anybody even know how they find the public to ask their 'questions'?

You use this site - they never asked me mind you!

 

[island]

Does anybody even know how they find the public to ask their 'questions'?

I remember there being a sign up form on gov.uk last year. You had to specify your question when you signed up, thereby ensuring awkward questions would be screened out.

 

[Mintona]

I hope restrictions are as good as gone by Easter this year. However I just fear that Easter next year is more realistic, with the way this government are running things.

 

[greyman42]

The current Daily Mail headline makes very grim reading, claiming the cycle of lockdowns will continue into the summer, and calls to extend mandatory mask wearing and bring back the hard 2m distance rule.

There never was a hard 2m distance rule.

 

[brad465]

I hope restrictions are as good as gone by Easter this year. However I just fear that Easter next year is more realistic, with the way this government are running things.

The longer restrictions go on, especially now there is a vaccine, the more of a liability Johnson, Hancock et al. will become, and messing up the rollout will only hasten their departure if things drag on beyond this Easter. Given the increasing influence of the new CRG, they will want any new leader to get lifting restrictions pronto. There is also the apparent fatigue in Government, especially visible with Hancock, but even Vallance and Whitty have shown it before, such that this can only go on so long before they completely run out steam. Beyond this Easter probably is realistic, but Easter 2022 would collapse society completely the way things are going.

 

[kristiang85]

What really gets me is the government's lack of exit strategy. They might have one, but they certainly aren't being transparent about it.

What I really want is to see them announce this kind of plan very soon:

"We will be able to relax the country to Tier 1 status once XXX people in the XXX groups have been vaccinated. We currently anticipate this will happen by XX/XX/21.

Then all COVID-19 restrictions put in place since March 2020 will cease once XXX people in XXX groups have been vaccinated. We anticipate this to be XX/XX/21.

We also require proof that vaccination lowers serious outcomes of COVID by XXX using XXX measure, and we will have this data by XX/XX/21. We do not expect this to differ from our original projections that the vaccine is effective. All data on this will be released to the general public and media for scrutiny.

Once these criteria have been fulfilled we will relax the restrictions as promised, and this roadmap will be enshrined in a parliamentary vote to be debated this week.

We will provide updates on the progress on all these targets on a weekly basis in our briefings".

Obviously we aren't going to get anything like this, and we will be kept in the dark over the next few months.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The longer restrictions go on, especially now there is a vaccine, the more of a liability Johnson, Hancock et al. will become, and messing up the rollout will only hasten their departure if things drag on beyond this Easter. Given the increasing influence of the new CRG, they will want any new leader to get lifting restrictions pronto. There is also the apparent fatigue in Government, especially visible with Hancock, but even Vallance and Whitty have shown it before, such that this can only go on so long before they completely run out steam. Beyond this Easter probably is realistic, but Easter 2022 would collapse society completely the way things are going.

CRG look like they've faded out in the face of the scale of the cases and hospitalisations expect the regulations to get rolled over with ease on 27th jan.
That said good weather and longer days will allow a relaxation of restrictions May to Sept but unless they get there act together on vaccinations we will be back with restrictions again come autumn. There should be oven ready plan as its always been about vaccinations as the solution but where is Nadhim Zahawi telling us what the plan is? Nowhere from what i can see. I do hope that he has put his faith in a big hitter that can manage the rollout and not just flung money at there consultant mates again and we have another botched Test, Track Trace outcome.

 

[brad465]

CRG look like they've faded out in the face of the scale of the cases and hospitalisations expect the regulations to get rolled over with ease on 27th jan.
That said good weather and longer days will allow a relaxation of restrictions May to Sept but unless they get there act together on vaccinations we will be back with restrictions again come autumn. There should be oven ready plan as its always been about vaccinations as the solution but where is Nadhim Zahawi telling us what the plan is? Nowhere from what i can see. I do hope that he has put his faith in a big hitter that can manage the rollout and not just flung money at there consultant mates again and we have another botched Test, Track Trace outcome.

Sir Desmond Swayne still made a classic speech of his to Parliament in the retrospective approval of the latest tier changes expressing his disapproval, so they haven't completely disappeared. However as you allude to the CRG will come roaring back by the time better weather and hopefully more vaccinated people drives infections, hospitalisations and deaths back down.

 

[PeterC]

While a general drop to lower tiers will probably happen by Easter my gut feel is that we won't see "level 0" nationwide before late May.

When I am in a pessimistic mood I suspect that some gatherings may continue to be restricted into next winter. Probably including allowing concerts and theatres at full seating capacity, festivals and the full range of dance activities from clubbing to pensioners' tea dances.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

My biggest fear isn't so much the distribution and giving out of the vaccine, but the delivery schedules of the actual vaccines themselves to the uk.

It is increasingly sounding like the actual delivery schedules will not deliver enough vaccines to allow the government to vaccinate the xmillion per week that they need to do so we are in a position to remove restrictions by or at Easter. They can have the best NHS based systems to inoculate people, but if there aren't enough vaccine doses in the UK to meet the schedules then the restrictions won't get lifted as promised.

I also fear that there will be mission creep and "stop the NHS being overwhelmed" will turn in to "we must get case numbers down" (for example if the vaccines don't reduce transmission and hence we still have high case numbers but very low hospital admissions) or some other goalposts will move.

I sincerely hope not but as time goes on and the actual commitments to how many vaccine doses we will actually have and when become more wishy washy I won't hold my breath.

 

[Mintona]

This link is to the vaccination calculator that works out roughly when you will receive it:

Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK

The vaccine queue calculator for the UK estimates where you are in the queue to get your COVID vaccine based on your age, health, and job.

www.omnicalculator.com

Mine was showing June-September 2021 until today. Note ‘was’. It is now showing January-June 2022. The vaccination schedule is so far behind, this is another reason why I expect restrictions to be with us until next April.

 

[yorksrob]

This link is to the vaccination calculator that works out roughly when you will receive it:

Vaccine Queue Calculator for the UK

The vaccine queue calculator for the UK estimates where you are in the queue to get your COVID vaccine based on your age, health, and job.

www.omnicalculator.com

Mine was showing June-September 2021 until today. Note ‘was’. It is now showing January-June 2022. The vaccination schedule is so far behind, this is another reason why I expect restrictions to be with us until next April.

I noticed that it gives a vaccination rate of 1m a week, whereas the gmt have mentioned 2m. Is the calculator official and does it have the most up to date info ?

 

[bramling]

While a general drop to lower tiers will probably happen by Easter my gut feel is that we won't see "level 0" nationwide before late May.

When I am in a pessimistic mood I suspect that some gatherings may continue to be restricted into next winter. Probably including allowing concerts and theatres at full seating capacity, festivals and the full range of dance activities from clubbing to pensioners' tea dances.

To be honest, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a level of intrusive restriction until early July, just nicely to coincide with the start of the family school holidays, like last year.

However, if they think that will be acceptable then they can piffle on. I think BJ will be gone by then in any case.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 2 Jan 2021 ==

Sir Desmond Swayne still made a classic speech of his to Parliament in the retrospective approval of the latest tier changes expressing his disapproval, so they haven't completely disappeared. However as you allude to the CRG will come roaring back by the time better weather and hopefully more vaccinated people drives infections, hospitalisations and deaths back down.

Let’s hope so. No one else is providing any form of opposition to this lunacy.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

I noticed that it gives a vaccination rate of 1m a week, whereas the gmt have mentioned 2m. Is the calculator official and does it have the most up to date info ?

1m or 2m a week are both currently unrealistic. We started vaccinating around 4 weeks ago and have only done around a 1m people in the first 3 weeks. They need to seriously ramp up the speed to have any hope of restrictions lifting before summer.

 

[yorksrob]

1m or 2m a week are both currently unrealistic. We started vaccinating around 4 weeks ago and have only done around a 1m people in the first 3 weeks. They need to seriously ramp up the speed to have any hope of restrictions lifting before summer.

This is true, although we've only had one vaccine so far.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

This interesting tweet gives some figures that are quite interesting for vaccination rates.

https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1345316288860663808?s=19

I reckon that about 80% of all deaths could be prevented with just under 9m vaccinations.

Assuming the first dose of any vaccine would suffice then if they can manage 1m a week on average from next week onwards then we should be out of the woods by end of February.

 

[Dent]

1m or 2m a week are both currently unrealistic. We started vaccinating around 4 weeks ago and have only done around a 1m people in the first 3 weeks. They need to seriously ramp up the speed to have any hope of restrictions lifting before summer.

How many more times does it have to be pointed out that all the vaccinations so far have been the Pfizer vaccine, whereas the 2m per week is for the Oxford vaccine which will be rolled out from Monday?

 

[duncanp]

What really gets me is the government's lack of exit strategy. They might have one, but they certainly aren't being transparent about it.

What I really want is to see them announce this kind of plan very soon:

"We will be able to relax the country to Tier 1 status once XXX people in the XXX groups have been vaccinated. We currently anticipate this will happen by XX/XX/21.

Then all COVID-19 restrictions put in place since March 2020 will cease once XXX people in XXX groups have been vaccinated. We anticipate this to be XX/XX/21.

We also require proof that vaccination lowers serious outcomes of COVID by XXX using XXX measure, and we will have this data by XX/XX/21. We do not expect this to differ from our original projections that the vaccine is effective. All data on this will be released to the general public and media for scrutiny.

Once these criteria have been fulfilled we will relax the restrictions as promised, and this roadmap will be enshrined in a parliamentary vote to be debated this week.

We will provide updates on the progress on all these targets on a weekly basis in our briefings".

Obviously we aren't going to get anything like this, and we will be kept in the dark over the next few months.

I would refer you to the excellent COVID Actuaries Response Group, who have produced the attached paper which shows all the vaccination priority groups, the percentage of COVID-19 deaths for each group, the number of people in each group, and the estimated number of vaccinations required to prevent one death.

If you take groups 1- 4, they account for 88% of COVID deaths, and there are an estimated 13.4 million people in each group.

If you vaccinate people at the rate of 1.5 million per week, it would take just under 9 weeks to vaccinate all the people in groups 1 -4. This would take us to the second half of March, which coincides with the anniversary of the first lockdown.

Also by the end of March it is likely that the current wave of infections will have peaked, and pressure on the NHS will have eased.

Of course there are a few caveats with these figures, in that they are estimates, and no-one knows exactly how many people we are going to be able to vaccinate per week.

The strategy of giving people the second dose 12 weeks after the first one will enable more people to get a reasonable level of protection in a shorter period of time.

I suspect that the government does have the strategy that you outline in mind, and will start to ease restrictions once sufficient numbers of people in the highest risk categories have been vaccinated.

They probably do have dates in mind for easing of restrictions, but don't want to publish them yet in case things don't go to plan, or if it induces the public to be less careful. (Rather like the introduction of compulsory masks in many setting has made some people less careful about social distancing)

So if you ask me what I think will happen is that the whole country will move into Tier 3 late January/early February (as a bribe to MPs for renewing the tier regulations, and providing the figures are not still rising)

Then everywhere will move into Tier 2 about a month after that, possibly with a relaxation on the rules that say pubs must serve substantial meals.

Then some time after Easter everywhere will move to Tier 1, and then over the spring and summer rules are further relaxed.

To prevent another wave of infections in the autumn, we need to decide who should be prioritised for vaccination, amongst those who haven't received the vaccine.

Since the increase in cases started in September after schools went back, and then accelerated after the return of university students, I would suggest that people working in the education sector should be prioritised for vaccination over the summer.

Edit : I see that Solent & Wessex has beaten me to it with the paper from the COVID Actuaries Response Group.

I have a degree in Actuarial Mathematics & Statistics, so this area of research interests me.

 

[Mintona]

I noticed that it gives a vaccination rate of 1m a week, whereas the gmt have mentioned 2m. Is the calculator official and does it have the most up to date info ?

I believe it’s official. It showed a rate of 2m per week previously but has now changed to 1m a week, presumably in response to the effort so far.

 

[yorksrob]

I believe it’s official. It showed a rate of 2m per week previously but has now changed to 1m a week, presumably in response to the effort so far.

Oh. That's definitely not good then.

 

[C J Snarzell]

As other forum members have mentioned, Boris Johnson's position as PM is becoming more and more untenable. If he does try to push tight restrictions until the middle of the year (6 months away) he's going to come under a revolt from the back benchers. There is also the May local elections to consider so the likelihood is BJ will be toast by the summer.

CJ

 

[Bertie the bus]

I believe it’s official. It showed a rate of 2m per week previously but has now changed to 1m a week, presumably in response to the effort so far.

It is not official in any way and does not claim to be. It even gives you the option to amend its assumptions.

It is little more than a computer game.

 

[hwl]

I believe it’s official. It showed a rate of 2m per week previously but has now changed to 1m a week, presumably in response to the effort so far.

1m is the best Jan target rate with 2m in March.

Everyone apart from Israel is having issues getting the rate up. The failure in the US is about to get political as Trump has only funded 4% of the required amount for the actual vaccination effort.

 

[Gadget88]

Indeed so. There would be many many more thousands businesses that would have gone under and unable to return. There would be millions more unemployed. There would be a mental health crisis of absolutely biblical proportions. And there could even be suicides of absolutely biblical proportions. Many people just wouldn't be able to take all this stupid nonsense dragging on for another year or so with no end in sight. As someone who amongst many many others, whose mental health has suffered as a result of all this dragging on for over 9 months so far, what's keeping me going now is the confidence that all this will soon be over in a few months and a return to normal life again. And it just can't come soon enough.

With these vaccinations being ramped up now, the Coronavirus hospital admissions, the numbers in hospital and deaths will soon be very very low. And there will be absolutely no justification atall for all these restrictions to remain. They won't be able to drag this into the summer and then say "We've got the Winter cold/flu season coming up so we must keep these restrictions." and then when it gets to the start of Winter they won't be able to say "We've got January and February coming up, which is always the busiest period for the NHS, therefore we must still keep these restrictions going." and dragging all this into at least Spring 2022! Nope, it just can't happen as there just wouldn't be much left of the country if it did.

Of course those who want "The new normal" to remain forever along with social distancing/socially distanced(god I absolutely detest those two terms!) and face mask wearing, can do so on their own if they so wish. The vast majority want to bin all that nonsense, and get back to a normal life again.

I am curious to know why some people want restrictions to remain what’s they psychology behind it?