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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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birchesgreen

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I see The Johnson wants people to stop WFH because when he did it he says he couldn't get any work done as he was too distracted making coffee and eating cheese. I doubt many are surprised by this admission of his own weakness and lack of any discipline.
 
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brad465

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I see The Johnson wants people to stop WFH because when he did it he says he couldn't get any work done as he was too distracted making coffee and eating cheese. I doubt many are surprised by this admission of his own weakness and lack of any discipline.
All those who are trying to stop working from home, including most prominently Jacob-Rees Mogg, clearly don't believe in the Tory value of free markets if they don't like companies/institutions allowing working practices they don't like. I was not a fan of most covid restrictions, but working from home was one of the main benefits.
 

DynamicSpirit

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All those who are trying to stop working from home, including most prominently Jacob-Rees Mogg, clearly don't believe in the Tory value of free markets if they don't like companies/institutions allowing working practices they don't like. I was not a fan of most covid restrictions, but working from home was one of the main benefits.

But they aren't trying to force companies to stop work-from-home are they? As far as the private sector are concerned, they are simply expressing an opinion that (I'm paraphrasing here) it would be better if people were in the office more. They aren't preventing private companies from doing whatever each private company wishes, so it seems quite a stretch to claim that somehow implies that they don't believe in free markets.

(In the case of the civil service, they are doing more, but that's not a private company so a different matter).
 

brad465

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But they aren't trying to force companies to stop work-from-home are they? As far as the private sector are concerned, they are simply expressing an opinion that (I'm paraphrasing here) it would be better if people were in the office more. They aren't preventing private companies from doing whatever each private company wishes, so it seems quite a stretch to claim that somehow implies that they don't believe in free markets.

(In the case of the civil service, they are doing more, but that's not a private company so a different matter).
Fair enough, we'll see what becomes of it. Interestingly they did actually do something today that is fitting in with free market values somewhat, delaying the ban on junk food adverts and multi-buy deals.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Because the tories want to cut taxes for their mates, and have thus invented a fetishisation of a small state that doesn't have the resources to do things like crack down on tax avoidance and evaison.

That's very misleading - I would say borderline outright falsehoods.

There is a very strong body of economic arguments that lower taxes often leads to higher economic growth, and for that reason many Conservatives believe in keeping taxes as low as possible. I'm not aware of any prominent Conservative who believes only in cutting taxes for the wealthy - the general consensus on the right seems to be that it's better to cut taxes all round for everyone. Of course that's easier said than done when there are public expenditure demands, and we've recently seen taxes raised almost all round by a Tory Government. So it's the opposite way round to how you've put it

As for 'doesn't have the resources to do things like crack down on tax avoidance and evaison' - can you think of any time in the last 10 years when the Tories have not tried to crack down on tax avoidance/evasion? My memory of the last 10 years has been that Conservative Governments have frequently adjusted the rules etc. precisely in order to clamp down on tax avoidance/evasion. I therefore think you've just made that one up.
 

jon0844

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The Civil Service Union (who, naturally, have a vested interest in opposing any cuts) seem to be suggesting that some of these extra roles are necessary due to Brexit. It would not surprise me if they cut numbers, then use more outsourcing and consultancy to fill in the gaps... resulting in an on-paper saving that will give a nice headline, but higher costs overall.

The Government seems very happy to let things go to **** due to Brexit, then shove the blame on the EU - so why not cut civil staff and make things worse? Indeed, it might be in its interest to have EU as the scapegoat (it isn't really practical to blame Ukraine/Russia for everything) now that it can't hide behind Covid.

They need an enemy, and the NI situation seems to be a good way to start the blame game.
 

brad465

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As for 'doesn't have the resources to do things like crack down on tax avoidance and evaison' - can you think of any time in the last 10 years when the Tories have not tried to crack down on tax avoidance/evasion? My memory of the last 10 years has been that Conservative Governments have frequently adjusted the rules etc. precisely in order to clamp down on tax avoidance/evasion. I therefore think you've just made that one up.
Depends on the type, the tax gap as reported by HMRC has been coming down, so there must be improvements somewhere, however there are still issues around non-dom status and the fact we have a catalogue of tax havens as British Overseas Territories (although I concede no Government of any colour has sought to do anything about that last one, and it's probably very complicated to deal with anyway).
 

Busaholic

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If nicknames are to be used, if "tories" is to be used for the Conservative Party, what is the nickname for the Labour Party?
''Tories'' is no more a nickname than ''Conservatives'', if you wish to be pedantic. The Tory Party was the forerunner to the Conservative Party, or to give it its full and proper name the Conservative and Unionist party. Doubtless there are some e.g. Jacob Rees-Mogg who might like a return to the days of Tories and Whigs, although as his mother's father was a lorry driver he might be surprised at what his place in society might have been 'back in the day.' :)
 

Yew

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There is a very strong body of economic arguments that lower taxes often leads to higher economic growth, and for that reason many Conservatives believe in keeping taxes as low as possible.
There is also a clear body of evidence that investment in infrastructure stimulates economic growth, particularly in areas with under-employment. That's before we consider that economic growth is a poor proxy for the financial wellbeing of working people.
I'm not aware of any prominent Conservative who believes only in cutting taxes for the wealthy - the general consensus on the right seems to be that it's better to cut taxes all round for everyone.
The vast majority of tax increases have been on things that normal working people consume. Since they have been in power, the Tories have increased tax on:
- Alcohol
- VAT
- Tobacco
- Vehicle excise duty
- National Insurance
- Air passenger duty
- Insurance Premium tax
- Stamp Duty

The reductions have been in:

- Venture capital schemes
- Capital gains tax
- Corporation tax
- Income tax (for high earners)
- Bank levies

I'm sure you can see which group of these things a normal working class person is more likely to come across in their day-to-day lives. Their record speaks for its self

As for 'doesn't have the resources to do things like crack down on tax avoidance and evaison' - can you think of any time in the last 10 years when the Tories have not tried to crack down on tax avoidance/evasion?
They certainly haven't been effective, large corporations regularly avoid paying hundreds of millions. The Conservative party's approach can at best be described as lip service; typically they just obsess over chump change from small businesses. That's before we consider Non-doms, though that might put Rishi in his wife's bad books.
 

Phil56

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The reductions have been in:

- Venture capital schemes
- Capital gains tax
- Corporation tax
- Income tax (for high earners)
- Bank levies

Well millions of lower earners have benefitted from the almost doubling of the personal tax free allowance and the proposed increase in lower threshold for paying NIC.

Whereas people earning over £50k have lost some/all their child benefit. Those earning over £100k lose some/all of their tax free personal allowance.

Plus the new personal income tax on dividends (which hits those with companies who earn via dividends)

I'd say the income tax changes have been VERY beneficial to lower earners and VERY detrimental to higher earners.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Depends on the type, the tax gap as reported by HMRC has been coming down, so there must be improvements somewhere, however there are still issues around non-dom status and the fact we have a catalogue of tax havens as British Overseas Territories (although I concede no Government of any colour has sought to do anything about that last one, and it's probably very complicated to deal with anyway).

IR35 will have brought in millions of extra tax, but at what cost? That's the thing really, I don't trust the civil service or any colour of Govt to properly consider ALL the implications of their decisions. Far too many times there are entirely foreseeable "unforeseen" consequences.
 

alex397

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I can certainly think of another nickname for the Conservatives but it’s certainly not repeatable here :D
 

DynamicSpirit

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There is also a clear body of evidence that investment in infrastructure stimulates economic growth, particularly in areas with under-employment.

Sure, and that's one of the dichotomies the Government has to deal with. You need investment from the private sector and from the Government.

That's before we consider that economic growth is a poor proxy for the financial wellbeing of working people.

If you don't have economic growth, then in the long run it's basically impossible for people's standard of life to improve. (You can get a small amount of benefit to poorer people by redistributing, but without growth, the available resources for that quickly runs out).

The vast majority of tax increases have been on things that normal working people consume. Since they have been in power, the Tories have increased tax on:
- Alcohol
- VAT
- Tobacco
- Vehicle excise duty
- National Insurance
- Air passenger duty
- Insurance Premium tax
- Stamp Duty

The reductions have been in:

- Venture capital schemes
- Capital gains tax
- Corporation tax
- Income tax (for high earners)
- Bank levies

You're selectively cherry-picking the stuff you cite in a way that gives a misleading impression. @Phil56 has pointed out some of the balancing information. I'd add that a lot of the tax increases you mention were arguably essential as part of getting people to change habits that destroy either their health or the environment. Is anyone seriously going to suggest that increasing tax on tobacco, for example, is a bad idea?

Bank Levies were first introduced by the Conservative Government in 2011, so I'm not sure by what reasoning you're listing them under 'reductions' - that seems plain wrong.

Regarding corporation tax: Very roughly speaking: People who work for an employer end up paying income tax and national insurance. People who run their own business and are paid mainly in dividends will often tend to pay corporation tax and dividend tax. Under George Osborne, corporation tax was reduced and at the same time dividend tax rules were changed in a way that caused an increase in dividend tax. As it happens, I do run my own company, and I recall the impact on my own taxes seemed to be broadly neutral. Labour - with what I would argue is its usual propensity to cherry-pick stuff so as to mislead people - seized on the corporation tax reduction as evidence the Tories were helping their 'mates' while largely failing to mention anything about the corresponding dividend tax increase - which I notice you've also not mentioned. And more recently of course, under the Conservatives, we have seen corporation tax rates rise back to close to their original pre-Osborne level, while dividend tax rates remain at their higher level.

As far as I can see, it's largely not true to claim that the Tories are just helping rich people (or however else you want to phrase the 'helping their mates' idea).
 

edwin_m

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All those who are trying to stop working from home, including most prominently Jacob-Rees Mogg, clearly don't believe in the Tory value of free markets if they don't like companies/institutions allowing working practices they don't like. I was not a fan of most covid restrictions, but working from home was one of the main benefits.
If there was a chance of Rees-Mogg turning up at my office, that would be a pretty good reason to work from home.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

If you don't have economic growth, then in the long run it's basically impossible for people's standard of life to improve.
And yet this government was quite happy to implement a hard Brexit that has hit economic growth hard.
 

brad465

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If you don't have economic growth, then in the long run it's basically impossible for people's standard of life to improve. (You can get a small amount of benefit to poorer people by redistributing, but without growth, the available resources for that quickly runs out).
There is also a clear body of evidence that investment in infrastructure stimulates economic growth, particularly in areas with under-employment. That's before we consider that economic growth is a poor proxy for the financial wellbeing of working people.
At some point though growth in this way is going to be impossible to achieve, ignoring the role infinite growth plays in climate change, the resources to bring it about will eventually run out, and it also requires infinite population growth (or high immigration where fertility rates are low) to keep achieving a labour force that increases in size to drive both production and consumption. Sure, technology will help somewhat, but it's not a silver bullet, and we shouldn't rely on certain technology being available in time (or at all) either. Economic growth achieved through bulldozing/concreting over more of our countryside to develop on, regardless of where in the country it is, certainly doesn't strike me as appealing.

The problem is, at some point people will have to accept that standard of life cannot improve beyond a certain point, and also shouldn't improve if we are to sustain ourselves on this planet. Furthermore, one measure of standard of life is life expectancy, and while not everyone goes through the same experience towards the end of their life, we cannot achieve constant increases in life expectancy without serious consequences. Illnesses like dementia and cancer become more prevalent with age and very expensive to treat, and often the quality of life for the individual and their immediate friends and family caring for them isn't great either.

There are going to have to be some very hard but necessary debates in future about how we are living and how a lot of what's perceived as good might not actually be as good as made out to be. The current Government certainly don't plan to, but there is no evidence that Labour, the Lib Dems or SNP will either, so I don't see this tipping point being imminent. However, slowly but surely I have seen more people come round to the realities of our unsustainable system; I only came round to it fully in 2020, where before then I was as much a growth supporter as the average person. And for the record, while capitalism certainly isn't sustainable for this reason, any other economic system that has a growth element applied to it is no good either, including Communism and Socialism, as they don't stop more resources being extracted/consumed. I would support a new system that is fit for today's world, that is only likely to come about with the aforementioned public debates.
 

nw1

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If there was a chance of Rees-Mogg turning up at my office, that would be a pretty good reason to work from home.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==


And yet this government was quite happy to implement a hard Brexit that has hit economic growth hard.

Indeed - that was the moment when the Conservative Party ceased to be the party of economic prudence. Instead, to me it's "let's make radical changes to our relationship with the continent, with unpredictable results, because we feel threatened by UKIP, and we could pick up a lot of seats in socially-conservative areas of the country that way".

The strategy has worked for picking up seats in some areas of the country and has worked for the Conservative Party, so you could certainly say that, if the actual aim of Brexit was to increase the Tory majority, it could be argued that it's a success. So far. Not sure about next time though. And I think they got lucky with weak opposition in the form of Corbyn last time.
 
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Yew

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If you don't have economic growth, then in the long run it's basically impossible for people's standard of life to improve. (You can get a small amount of benefit to poorer people by redistributing, but without growth, the available resources for that quickly runs out).
I agree, but it is possible (and highly likely given conservative policies), the economy can grow, but the amount of money in peoples pockets does not.

Is anyone seriously going to suggest that increasing tax on tobacco, for example, is a bad idea?
Alcohol and tobacco duty forms a larger percentage of disposable income spend for lower income families. For example, the ONS found that: "
  • Indirect taxes made the largest contribution (4.3 percentage points) to income inequality over the last 10 years; as a proportion of disposable income, the poorest fifth of people paid 32.9% on indirect taxes compared with 11.4% for the richest fifth of people in FYE 2020."
Regarding corporation tax: Very roughly speaking: People who work for an employer end up paying income tax and national insurance. People who run their own business and are paid mainly in dividends will often tend to pay corporation tax and dividend tax. Under George Osborne, corporation tax was reduced and at the same time dividend tax rules were changed in a way that caused an increase in dividend tax. As it happens, I do run my own company, and I recall the impact on my own taxes seemed to be broadly neutral. Labour - with what I would argue is its usual propensity to cherry-pick stuff so as to mislead people - seized on the corporation tax reduction as evidence the Tories were helping their 'mates' while largely failing to mention anything about the corresponding dividend tax increase - which I notice you've also not mentioned. And more recently of course, under the Conservatives, we have seen corporation tax rates rise back to close to their original pre-Osborne level, while dividend tax rates remain at their higher level.
And how does that scale for large businesses with multiple employees? Forgive me for not trusting your small business as an analaogy for large multinationals.

As far as I can see, it's largely not true to claim that the Tories are just helping rich people (or however else you want to phrase the 'helping their mates' idea).
Since the rise of Neoliberalism under Margret Thatcher, the GINI coefficient of income equality has risen to around 35%, beforehand it was at around 20.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Alcohol and tobacco duty forms a larger percentage of disposable income spend for lower income families. For example, the ONS found that: "
  • Indirect taxes made the largest contribution (4.3 percentage points) to income inequality over the last 10 years; as a proportion of disposable income, the poorest fifth of people paid 32.9% on indirect taxes compared with 11.4% for the richest fifth of people in FYE 2020."

Nevertheless, alcohol and tobacco duties are taxes that have huge societal/health benefits. And remember, no-one forces you to drink or smoke. It's not like income tax where, if you are earning a certain amount than you have no choice but to pay a certain % of that amount as tax. It's largely a lifestyle choice if you choose to spend your money on tobacco or alcohol.

And how does that scale for large businesses with multiple employees? Forgive me for not trusting your small business as an analaogy for large multinationals.

That's a fair question. Unfortunately there's no simple answer because how it works out in each case will depend on various other factors and the various tax regulations are pretty complex. However, since corporation tax rates have now risen back to close to (not quite but close) what they were in 2010, but dividend tax is still higher, I would imagine that most people in the UK who get an income that way would now be paying at least as much now as in 2010 (all other things being equal in their circumstances).

Since the rise of Neoliberalism under Margret Thatcher, the GINI coefficient of income equality has risen to around 35%, beforehand it was at around 20.

That's not necessarily a bad thing: If you want people to be able to choose how they live their own lives, and to be able to work to improve their situation, then a degree of inequality is an essential and inevitable consequence: Some people will work harder, contribute more to society, and therefore get more wealthy. So don't fall into the mistake of assuming that a lower GINI must always be better. A GINI of close to zero is simply not compatible with basic freedom. There's a bit of a value judgement about how large the ideal is. A bit of googling suggests a consensus that a value above 0.4-0.5 is where it becomes problematic.
 

david1212

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The latest move to try and tackle the cost of living seems to be to cut 90,000 jobs from the civil service to bring numbers back to 2016 levels (the lowest since WW2), with funding tax cuts a possible use of projected savings:


The Civil Service Union (who, naturally, have a vested interest in opposing any cuts) seem to be suggesting that some of these extra roles are necessary due to Brexit. It would not surprise me if they cut numbers, then use more outsourcing and consultancy to fill in the gaps... resulting in an on-paper saving that will give a nice headline, but higher costs overall.

With the problems in the Passport Office, DVLA, DWP, (for instance) this will doubtless be popular, particularly with the right wing press. Half the time the problem is too few staff, the rest of the time is lumping more and more work on them. I reckon you are dead right on consultants and outsourcing.

If some of these extra staff were brought in for Brexit are they needed long term ?

Maybe I just don't recall but were delays in the departments you quote and others even longer 5 - 6 years ago or actually less ? From the 90,000 are some working in these departments ?

Regardless all that will happen is outsourcing so another tier of management plus consultants to ' advise ' etc. I always look back to when working for a NHS supplier and living at home support was moved to the private sector. One budget cut but total cost higher.
 

Yew

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Nevertheless, alcohol and tobacco duties are taxes that have huge societal/health benefits. And remember, no-one forces you to drink or smoke. It's not like income tax where, if you are earning a certain amount than you have no choice but to pay a certain % of that amount as tax. It's largely a lifestyle choice if you choose to spend your money on tobacco or alcohol.


]

That does not detract to the fact that these taxes disproportionately effect poorer people.

That's a fair question. Unfortunately there's no simple answer because how it works out in each case will depend on various other factors and the various tax regulations are pretty complex. However, since corporation tax rates have now risen back to close to (not quite but close) what they were in 2010, but dividend tax is still higher, I would imagine that most people in the UK who get an income that way would now be paying at least as much now as in 2010 (all other things being equal in their circumstances).
Perhaps, but that still leaves us with one of the lowest rates of Corporation tax in the G7.

That's not necessarily a bad thing: If you want people to be able to choose how they live their own lives, and to be able to work to improve their situation, then a degree of inequality is an essential and inevitable consequence: Some people will work harder, contribute more to society, and therefore get more wealthy. So don't fall into the mistake of assuming that a lower GINI must always be better. A GINI of close to zero is simply not compatible with basic freedom. There's a bit of a value judgement about how large the ideal is. A bit of googling suggests a consensus that a value above 0.4-0.5 is where it becomes problematic.
I am all for people being able to work and improve themselves, but let us remember that financial success is not simply a function of work; a wealthy family able to support an individual often gives a significant head-start. I would not advocate moving towards a GINI index of zero, but it seems to me that we're too high on the scale, 0.35 is remarkably close to the threshold you spoke of.
 

Typhoon

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If some of these extra staff were brought in for Brexit are they needed long term ?
You may be right and they may only be required in the short term, however Brexit is still not 'done', we have this debate about the Northern Ireland Protocol (and all sorts of paper work) which must be exercising civil servants. I also suspect that the Minister of State for Brexit Opportunities and Government Efficiency is not devoid of secretarial assistance,

I seem to remember civil servants were moved into different roles to cope with efforts to alleviate the effect of coronavirus, there is still likely to be a backlog (for instance, with Recovery Loans. some of which, I gather, were fraudulently claimed)).
 

edwin_m

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If they were looking to minimise their tax burden, there are more effective places.
With Brexit not being "done", international companies have no certainty about the terms on which they can export from the UK to the principal markets of Europe. The latest example is the risk of the EU cancelling the Brexit deal if the UK unilaterally reneges on the NI protocol. So it's highly unlikely an international business would choose to invest in the UK.
 

Yew

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With Brexit not being "done", international companies have no certainty about the terms on which they can export from the UK to the principal markets of Europe. The latest example is the risk of the EU cancelling the Brexit deal if the UK unilaterally reneges on the NI protocol. So it's highly unlikely an international business would choose to invest in the UK.
I'd suggest that invest isn't quite the right word, but I can't think of a good one for "base themselves in the UK to take advantage of tax laws.
 

edwin_m

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I'd suggest that invest isn't quite the right word, but I can't think of a good one for "base themselves in the UK to take advantage of tax laws.
I suspect actually the corporation tax rate (which is mainly what we are talking about here) make very little difference to where a business locates itself physically, as a tax rate can always be changed. Multinationals will try to use internal accounting processes to ensure that profits appear in countries where they are taxed the least. The low-tax country may get more tax income that way, but most of the jobs will remain wherever the company can most efficiently carry out its activities.

The consequence of Brexit is that a company manufacturing physical goods has no certainty about what payments and other inconveniences they will face when trying to export them. So such a company (the sort of company that politicians want to attract to the UK) is likely to go elsewhere whatever the tax rate is.
 

Cdd89

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The reductions have been in:
- Capital gains tax

Over what timescale? CGT has increased in real terms since the 1980’s due to the removal of taper relief and the indexation allowance. (My view is that one of these should be reinstated, and CGT increased/linked to Income Tax to compensate; it’s crazy that Group A can make a huge income in a very short timescale out of short-term investments taxed at 20%, while others are locked into owning assets they can’t sell because they couldn’t buy something remotely equivalent after decades of inflation).


However, slowly but surely I have seen more people come round to the realities of our unsustainable system; I only came round to it fully in 2020, where before then I was as much a growth supporter as the average person.
Growth is not a ‘system’ but the default of interactions where people strive for efficiency and improvement. This cannot be prevented in a globalised market regardless of whether individual countries try to opt out from this.

I would present the following counter-argument to the inviability of perpetual growth:

  1. There have been and will be be multiple shrinkage events, whether due to financial incidents or natural/man-made disasters. These present the opportunity for regrowth.
  2. Not all growth involves population growth or further use of resources. Think of the myriad digital services which didn’t even exist 10-20 years ago. (Admittedly these have suffered a huge collapse recently, but see (1)).
  3. There is absolutely huge scope for growth in LEDCs. In particular, there are large numbers there doing jobs which can and should be automated. At the very least, I would expect this to be “tapped out” before anyone suggests growth is inviable.
  4. Necessary efforts to limit the damage of conventional growth (building, aviation, etc) will create (necessary) inefficiency which in turn propel further, beneficial forms of growth (‘green’ industries have effectively sprung up from nowhere).
I wouldn’t be so pessimistic if I were you :smile:
 

317 forever

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There is increasing speculation that a General Election may happen later this year, after the dire Bank of England report yesterday have shone a light on how things are not going to get any better for the Government, so they'd move to try and curb their losses.
Mark Spencer has subsequently stated that the General Election will be in 2024. Mind you, they can still change their mind (Theresa May style) or may be trying to deflect attention away from an intention to call it this autumn.
 

DynamicSpirit

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At some point though growth in this way is going to be impossible to achieve, ignoring the role infinite growth plays in climate change, the resources to bring it about will eventually run out, and it also requires infinite population growth (or high immigration where fertility rates are low) to keep achieving a labour force that increases in size to drive both production and consumption. Sure, technology will help somewhat, but it's not a silver bullet, and we shouldn't rely on certain technology being available in time (or at all) either. Economic growth achieved through bulldozing/concreting over more of our countryside to develop on, regardless of where in the country it is, certainly doesn't strike me as appealing.

I think this analysis misses the impact of technological improvements, and of a growing focus in protecting the environment as we develop - something that was almost entirely absent from our approach to growth until about 30-ish years ago. As one example, a quick Google suggests that the total power (energy/unit time) the earth gets from the sun is something like 10 000 times the total power that humanity is consuming - so if (hypothetically) we swapped all our energy use to solar, we'd only be using 1/10 000 of the theoretically available solar energy. Obviously there are other restrictions so the practical limit would be a lot lower - but still a lot higher than we are currently using.

As another example: Right now there are extremely good environmental reasons for trying to fly as little as possible. But, extrapolating technology developments, it looks fairly plausible that within 20-30 years short haul flights might be largely battery-powered, and within 50 years, long haul flights could be hydrogen-powered. At that point, the environmental arguments against flying could largely vanish.

Another way of looking at it: Imagine someone 50 years ago making the same argument that you've made, convincing the Government of the validity of those arguments, and as a result the decision is made to stop going for economic growth. Would you really be willing to give up all the improvements our standard of living that have taken place over the last 50 years? And if not, would you expect the attitude of people in 50 or 100 or 500 years' time to be any different?

I agree with you to the extent that we do need to adjust our lifestyles to take account of environmental harm (and I think it's regrettable that the Government hasn't done more to persuade people in that regard). But I don't think there's a hard limit to how much growth we can achieve while protecting the environment - because you can always grow any limit through appropriate technology developments.
 

brad465

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I think this analysis misses the impact of technological improvements, and of a growing focus in protecting the environment as we develop - something that was almost entirely absent from our approach to growth until about 30-ish years ago. As one example, a quick Google suggests that the total power (energy/unit time) the earth gets from the sun is something like 10 000 times the total power that humanity is consuming - so if (hypothetically) we swapped all our energy use to solar, we'd only be using 1/10 000 of the theoretically available solar energy. Obviously there are other restrictions so the practical limit would be a lot lower - but still a lot higher than we are currently using.

As another example: Right now there are extremely good environmental reasons for trying to fly as little as possible. But, extrapolating technology developments, it looks fairly plausible that within 20-30 years short haul flights might be largely battery-powered, and within 50 years, long haul flights could be hydrogen-powered. At that point, the environmental arguments against flying could largely vanish.

Another way of looking at it: Imagine someone 50 years ago making the same argument that you've made, convincing the Government of the validity of those arguments, and as a result the decision is made to stop going for economic growth. Would you really be willing to give up all the improvements our standard of living that have taken place over the last 50 years? And if not, would you expect the attitude of people in 50 or 100 or 500 years' time to be any different?

I agree with you to the extent that we do need to adjust our lifestyles to take account of environmental harm (and I think it's regrettable that the Government hasn't done more to persuade people in that regard). But I don't think there's a hard limit to how much growth we can achieve while protecting the environment - because you can always grow any limit through appropriate technology developments.
You make some fair points. I wasn't suggesting we give up all the improvements on our standard of living, but maybe get more out of what we have done. The main thing we can and should be doing is focusing on quality, not quantity, particularly in the world of retail. If higher quality goods lasts longer, then it needs replacing less, in turn using less resources; there have been theories that in certain sectors quality of products has got worse over the years, in particular white goods. Repairing goods needs to be encouraged more than replacement, including a drive to more affordability of repairs. What doesn't help though is, as an aside to GDP focus, retail sales are a regular statistic reported by both the ONS and consumer groups, and they focus too much on quantity, when I think more focus on quality, including longevity and how locally sourced they were, should be considered more.
 

Busaholic

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7 Jun 2014
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I'd suggest that invest isn't quite the right word, but I can't think of a good one for "base themselves in the UK to take advantage of tax laws.
Still not one word, but ''leach off the British people'' would cover it too.
 
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