Partygate: Frantic calls to Boris Johnson in India, then a U-turn to hold off revolt
There was no respite for the PM overseas, write Oliver Wright, Henry Zeffman, Chris Smyth and Steven Swinford
Saturday April 23 2022, 12.01am, The Times
As
Boris Johnson arrived in the Indian city of Ahmedabad shortly after 8am on Thursday he was met by hundreds of people lining the streets, cheering, dancing and waving signs in his honour.
Every few yards along the road there were billboards depicting Johnson’s image in celebration of his first official visit to the country.
The reception showed that there is nothing like a bit of foreign travel to provide respite from domestic woes.
For Johnson the distraction lasted a matter of hours — the time it took for No 10 aides in London to realise that Tory MPs were moving one step closer to removing him.
The day before no one had really sensed much danger. As Johnson took off, Tory whips were preparing an amendment in parliament that had been carefully crafted to see off an attempt by Labour to ambush the prime minister over the Downing Street parties.
The opposition had demanded he be referred to a special Commons committee to determine whether he knowingly misled MPs when he said he had no knowledge of the lockdown-breaking gatherings.
The Tory whips knew that some of his backbenchers were extremely reluctant to vote against the Labour motion before next month’s local elections. So a plan was hatched to try to stymie the vote by tabling an amendment that would push a decision back until after the police investigation had been concluded.
Not wanting the plan to leak, the wording of it was kept a closely guarded secret until it was laid at the very end of Thursday’s parliamentary business.
It would prove to be a bad mistake. Even as Johnson was still in the air, Tory backbenchers were letting it be known that they would not be supporting the Downing Street wheeze.
Dozens could either not be contacted or made clear they had more pressing concerns than coming to the House of Commons to defend the prime minister, even though they were on a three-line whip. They included the potential leadership challenger Jeremy Hunt, who said he would not support moves to delay the inquiry.
Most worryingly, about half a dozen parliamentary private secretaries (PPS) — MPs on the first rung of the ministerial ladder — made clear that they also intended to abstain, even though that would mean resigning from the government.
“There were lots of us saying we would abstain, which would have meant we’d have to go,” one PPS said.
“Ministers too. No one was happy.”
It was clear to the new chief whip, Chris Heaton-Harris, that the vote was in the balance and he could not confidently tell the prime minister that he would win.
Even if he did win, the extent of the Tory rebellion would be substantial, akin to the disastrous attempt by Downing Street to save the career of the former environment minister Owen Paterson.
In phone calls between London and Ahmedabad, a decision was made that Johnson would announce a climbdown in a planned television interview.
But rather than be explicit that Tory MPs would have a free vote on the Labour motion, the prime minister minced the message, saying only that the “House of Commons can do whatever it wants to do”.
An aide said: “We basically then had to work out how else we could announce it.”
So minutes before the debate was due to start, Heaton-Harris passed a note to Mark Spencer, the leader of the House, who was at the dispatch box answering business questions.
It told him to expect a question from Jacob Young — a new fresh-faced 2019 MP — about the whipping arrangements for the forthcoming debate and how to reply.
“The prime minister has indicated that he is keen for the House to decide on the business later today,” Spencer told MPs.
“The vote on the unamended House business [the Labour motion] will be a free vote to all Conservative MPs and that will be the case this afternoon.”
It was a complete climbdown. Johnson would be referred to the privileges committee — and face a third lengthy investigation into his behaviour on top of the police inquiry and the internal Sue Gray report.
“All our MPs had to do was walk through the lobbies and take one thing off the table,” an ally of the prime minister said.
“They should have voted it down and taken the pain. It is really not in their interests for this whole thing just to drag on either.”
Johnson’s anger was directed at Tory MPs. “I think he’s got to a point where he’s saying f*** it, you do what you like. I’m OK with my position,” one cabinet minister said. “He will keep going. If the machine decapitates him it decapitates him. He’s just beyond angry and wants to get on with it.”
Some government aides put the blame firmly at the door of No 10’s new operation which, they claimed, had not anticipated the danger early enough.
“It’s another triumph of the new professional and grown-up operation in No 10,” one said. Another added: “It is amazing how we somehow always manage to mess these things up so badly.” One MP joked: “At least they did the U-turn just before the vote this time, rather than just after.”
The rebellion belied recent Downing Street spin that the war in Ukraine had altered MPs’ views about Johnson’s long-term future.
John Baron, the normally loyal Conservative MP for Basildon & Billericay who said he would have backed the Labour motion, told Times Radio that he had never bought the argument and that Johnson’s survival would depend on the extent of his own culpability for the parties scandal and whether he had misled the House
“I don’t buy it,” he said. “I’m an ex- soldier and you look back at the First World War, certainly the Second World War, the Suez Crisis, and even the first Gulf War — leaders were changed but the policy continued. I don’t think it’s a major consideration.”
Far more of a consideration, other Conservative MPs said, was the party’s performance in next month’s local elections, which one described as “the first real test” of how much the parties issue was “cutting through on the doorstep”.
One junior minister said: “It has got a lot worse [since Johnson was fined]. It feels like it did in May 2019. In the south it’s bad and in London it feels catastrophic. And you have to remember that most Tory seats are still in the south.”
A cabinet minister said that although London and other cities looked “bad” the hope in Conservative HQ was that it might be “less bad away from the epicentres”.
Another MP said there appeared to be a difference between red wall areas, where the scandal was not often raised on the doorstep, and Tory heartlands in the south, where there was “genuine fury”.
“It’s in our Lib Dem-facing seats that the real problem is,” they said.
What worries Johnson’s aides is that if the local elections are worse than expected many MPs will care less about the intricacies over exactly what Johnson’s role was in the parties, and more about the binary question of whether he is more of an asset or a liability come the next general election.
“MPs face two questions,” one grandee said. “Are we better off with Boris gone and who, if anyone, would do better? For that reason the bar for getting rid of him is quite high.”
Rishi Sunak’s recent implosion has changed the calculation for some. One MP previously critical of the prime minister said: “I was very angry about it earlier this year, in fact, sometimes I was knocking on doors and I felt like I was more angry about it than my constituents. But I’ve made my peace with it. We are not going to remove the PM — especially now Rishi is so damaged — and I don’t think we should.”
Another senior minister raised the danger of a post-No 10 Johnson: “If we do get rid of him there’s the danger he’d become the ‘prince over the water’ popping up saying, ‘What happened to the promise of 40 new hospitals?’”
Most agree, however, that Johnson’s position is still far from secure, and that the scandal has some way yet to run.
One former minister said the decision by the arch-Brexiteer Steve Baker to call on Thursday for Johnson to quitwas particularly emblematic.He was instrumental both in bringing about the demise of Theresa May and securing the crown for Johnson. “He is an influential guy and won’t have reached this decision lightly. History suggests that when you lose Steve Baker your days in office are numbered,” they said.
Asked about what was in store for Johnson now, one cabinet minister replied wryly: “There are still many possible outcomes.”