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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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DelayRepay

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Ukraine is going to cause the cost of living crisis to really pinch. Once this starts hitting the middle classes Johnson has a problem, deflection or not.

Where I work, most of my colleagues are middle class Tory voters. We have just received our annual pay rise (and I know we are lucky to receive anything at all). There has been a realisation over the last few days that despite a pay rise, we are all going to be poorer when the NI rise kicks in, our energy bills go up and petrol and food prices continue to rise.

You are right that this is the point it will start hurting the Tories, because it's hurting their core supporters. I think most Tory MPs can see what is coming - there doesn't seem to be a great deal of support for the NI rise outside of the Cabinet.

I would suggest it's already started to go wrong, but we'll really see the effect of all of this as we head into the Autumn when there will be another energy price rise and petrol will no doubt be at a record high. And food prices are only going to increase too. I saw one economist talking about the possibility of a load of bread costing £3 o_O

If we also see shortages of goods and/or fuel this could well be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
 
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jon0844

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..but now a lot of the issues that will hurt Tory voters will be attributed to Russia - and they'll convince themselves of how bad it will have been under Labour (because the Tories will make a point to jointly spread that narrative). If we finally allow more people from Ukraine to shelter here, they'll be easy to blame too. Using our schools, hospitals etc.

This current crisis might actually save the Tories.
 

nw1

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..but now a lot of the issues that will hurt Tory voters will be attributed to Russia - and they'll convince themselves of how bad it will have been under Labour (because the Tories will make a point to jointly spread that narrative). If we finally allow more people from Ukraine to shelter here, they'll be easy to blame too. Using our schools, hospitals etc.

This current crisis might actually save the Tories.

I think only the most foaming-at-the-mouth far-right anti-immigration fanatic would complain about the Ukrainian refugees. If the Tories try that on, they'll be finished.
 

jon0844

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I think only the most foaming-at-the-mouth far-right anti-immigration fanatic would complain about the Ukrainian refugees. If the Tories try that on, they'll be finished.

But we're already being told that the UK is full up, or we should simply help them get into a nearby safe place like Poland.
 

Typhoon

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I think only the most foaming-at-the-mouth far-right anti-immigration fanatic would complain about the Ukrainian refugees. If the Tories try that on, they'll be finished.
Tories such as Daniel Kawczynski for instance.
Mr Kawczynski had tweeted: "British left wing parties demand Britain takes in more Ukrainian refugees. This is illiterate and immoral. When war is over Ukrainians will need to return home to rebuild their country. We should be supporting Ukrainian refugees in frontline states like Poland and Romania."
Interesting use of the word 'illiterate'.

Credit where credit is due
But Simon Hoare, Tory chairman of the Commons Northern Ireland Committee, told Mr Kawczynski he does “not speak for the Tory Party”.

In a 5.50am tweet, Mr Hoare said: “What utterly risible, illiterate, immoral and offensive bile. Haven’t you heard what @BorisJohnson has been saying?
Fortunately, Simon Hoare's views are not unique.

Full story at https://www.shropshirestar.com/news...l-and-offensive-bile-over-ukrainian-refugees/
 

brad465

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If we finally allow more people from Ukraine to shelter here, they'll be easy to blame too. Using our schools, hospitals etc.

This current crisis might actually save the Tories.
If enough refugees came here that the Tories would try and blame them to avoid losing support, a very easy counter-argument is the same Tories let them in.
 

MattRat

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But we're already being told that the UK is full up, or we should simply help them get into a nearby safe place like Poland.
Well of course all countries should take their fair share. Going through multiple great countries to get the UK does seem a bit ridiculous unless they have already taken their fair share. Plus they'll just be used as a psuedo slave labour force when they get here, so it's really for their benefit too.
 

nw1

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Tories such as Daniel Kawczynski for instance.

Interesting use of the word 'illiterate'.

Credit where credit is due
Fortunately, Simon Hoare's views are not unique.

Full story at https://www.shropshirestar.com/news...l-and-offensive-bile-over-ukrainian-refugees/
Given that Kawczynski is an immigrant, that really is shocking hypocrisy, but no real surprise from him. Perhaps the worst MP to represent the UK in modern times - makes even Patel seem relatively moderate in comparison - remember he attempted to collude with the right-wing Law and Justice Party in Poland to try to force Brexit to happen by 29 March 2019.

An anti-immigration immigrant. I suppose Kawczynski thinks he is superior to all other immigrants, for some unbeknown reason.

I hope the people of Shrewsbury see sense and vote him out.
 
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al78

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I think only the most foaming-at-the-mouth far-right anti-immigration fanatic would complain about the Ukrainian refugees. If the Tories try that on, they'll be finished.
It wouldn't surprise me to see it being published in the Daily Mail if/when Ukrainan refugees do come over to the UK. They didn't seem to have a great deal of sympathy with refugees from other war torn countries (e.g. Syria) coming here.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

We are? Could you clarify which mainstream politicians are saying that we're full up, and provide links?
It is a well known hard right wing assertion, and there are enough people in the UK with that opinion that mainstream politicians can't completely ignore them. The reason we had Brexit was because EU immigrants were framed as being bad for the UK along the same lines i.e. resource consumption and we're full.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Well of course all countries should take their fair share. Going through multiple great countries to get the UK does seem a bit ridiculous unless they have already taken their fair share. Plus they'll just be used as a psuedo slave labour force when they get here, so it's really for their benefit too.
 

MattRat

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So using this article as a base, that means only Germany, Sweden and Malta shouldn't be expected to take more in terms of Europe (Turkey is Asia before anyone says anything).

That still leaves a lot of countries they could stop at instead of the UK. And again, they probably should if they don't want to be a psuedo slave labour force.
 

The Ham

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..but now a lot of the issues that will hurt Tory voters will be attributed to Russia - and they'll convince themselves of how bad it will have been under Labour (because the Tories will make a point to jointly spread that narrative). If we finally allow more people from Ukraine to shelter here, they'll be easy to blame too. Using our schools, hospitals etc.

This current crisis might actually save the Tories.

Other than the significant amount of criticism of the Tories for the support being given to those fleeing Ukraine.

Things like the U turn on the requirement for both parents to be present to allow a child into the UK (when the news had been reporting for days that the men were staying to fight).

It's taken to now to allow people with passports and other identification documents to be allowed to enter the UK and then fill in the paperwork rather than having to do it in advance (when there's limited slots, some during a wait of a week, to do this outside of the UK).

If a person arrives at Calais they have to either go to Paris or Lille. Again until recently there was no support to do this, other than being offered some snacks.

For some more details see the article on the link below:


Conservative MPs yesterday turned on Priti Patel over the UK’s chaotic response to the Ukrainian refugee crisis with the Home Secretary told to “get a grip” and facing suggestions she should quit.

A string of senior Tories criticised the Government amid more reports of confusion across Europe as Ukrainians struggle to get clearance to come to Britain.

There were also signs of frustration in Whitehall, as Boris Johnson unexpectedly appointed former Syrian resettlement minister Richard Harrington as the new Refugees Minister – with a seat in the Lords – to try and get a grip on the situation.


Home Office officials were also in talks over military support to deal with the backlog of people trying to get into the UK, with just 500 visas issued from more than 10,000 applications, after Defence Secretary Ben Wallace acknowledged visa processing was not “quick enough”.

A new visa application centre (VAC) is also being set up in Lille in northern France following reports that hundreds of refugees arriving in Calais were being told they must go to Paris or Brussels to apply. Refugees will be able to use free Eurostar services to travel to the two capitals or the 70 miles to Lille.

Tory MP Sir Roger Gale suggested Ms Patel should resign, claiming she misled the Commons on Monday by suggesting the centre had already been set up “en route” to Calais, before later claiming she said it was in the process of being built.

“Under any normal administration that in itself would be a resignation (issue),” he told the Commons during an urgent question on the crisis.
 

jon0844

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We are? Could you clarify which mainstream politicians are saying that we're full up, and provide links?

I am not your personal secretary. You've had one example, another is Edward Leigh who said we're full (and also said that have done enough to help already) and you can surely do your own searching to see countless other examples.

Maybe just see the stuff from GB News if you're one or the 40,000 or so viewers it has (now an even lower share than ever as people turn to BBC and Sky for news).
 

MattRat

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I am not your personal secretary. You've had one example, another is Edward Leigh who said we're full (and also said that have done enough to help already) and you can surely do your own searching to see countless other examples.

Maybe just see the stuff from GB News if you're one or the 40,000 or so viewers it has (now an even lower share than ever as people turn to BBC and Sky for news).
Or look at certain content creators on YouTube. There's a wide range of views of course, which is why it's actually the biggest source of 'news', but that also includes 'certain' views.
 

nw1

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I am not your personal secretary. You've had one example, another is Edward Leigh who said we're full (and also said that have done enough to help already) and you can surely do your own searching to see countless other examples.
Edward Leigh, that's a name I recognise from the past.

He was one of the original anti-EU lot in 1993, and also the president of the socially-conservative "Cornerstone Group" which appears to contain many of the most "delightful" Tory MPs... including Mr Kawczynski. ;)
 

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With everything that’s going on in Ukraine at the moment it looks like the subject of this thread…

When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?​

is probably a bit redundant for now as everyone’s eyes are on other things. The subject of the war in Ukraine is covered in separate threads even though it’s also being discussed here.

We’re going to lock this one for now and when news specifically related to the Conservatives starts up again we’ll look at reopening this thread or possibly starting a new one.

Thanks everyone.
 

brad465

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Tory party chair Oliver Dowden announced plans to launch a two-year long election campaign this May:


The Conservative chair has announced that Boris Johnson will kick off a two-year election campaign from May, as he hit out at “net zero dogma” and sought to pitch Labour as still linked to Jeremy Corbyn.

Oliver Dowden, the party co-chair and former culture secretary, made his comments in a speech at the Tory spring conference in Blackpool, as the party attempts to draw a line under the prime minister’s troubles over alleged lockdown-breaking parties. As part of an attempt to downplay the scandal, the Brexit minister, Jacob Rees-Mogg, dismissed the furore over Partygate as “disproportionate fluff” compared with the crisis in Ukraine.

Having survived calls for his resignation from Tory MPs, Johnson appears to be trying to show the party and country that he intends to fight the next election. Dowden announced that the Tories would open the candidate list for the next election and declared: “The challenge starts this May.”

He said the election would look a lot more like 2015, when David Cameron fought against Ed Miliband, than 2019, when Johnson took on Corbyn.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...be-decided-in-north-of-england-says-thinktank
“We are going to have to fight this one seat by seat, promise delivered by promise delivered, doorstep by doorstep,” he said. “And from May, we will begin our two-year election campaign with the launch of our target seat strategy, building on the experience of the 40:40 campaign in 2015, building capacity, developing profile and framing the choice.”

In a sign that the Conservatives are still concerned about the threat of Nigel Farage taking voters on the right, Dowden hit out at “net zero dogma” in comments that will dismay many concerned that the Tories are prepared to water down their commitments to tackling the climate emergency.

“I really think the British people want to see a bit of conservative pragmatism, not net zero dogma,” he said. “We are Conservatives. We exist to conserve. We will get to net zero. Of course we will save the planet. We just don’t want Vladimir Putin taking it over while we are doing it.”

His comments coincided with a speech from Johnson at the Scottish Conservatives conference, where he sought to draw a dividing line with the Scottish National party and Labour by suggesting they were pushing to go too fast on “net zero”.

Johnson’s own climate advisers on the committee on climate change have advised a “presumption against” new exploration in the North Sea, but he said: “Are we not crazy to be talking about completely shutting down domestic production?

“Only to buy oil and gas at a vast mark-up from Vladimir Putin’s Russia. And yet that unbelievably is the stated policy of the Scottish National party and the Labour party.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...s-combative-election-strategist-david-canzini
Johnson spoke just after the Scottish Tory leader, Douglas Ross, a week after he withdrew his letter of no confidence in the prime minister, citing the war in Ukraine.

Dowden also made it clear that the Tories were planning to portray Starmer at the next election as “dull … uninspiring … and bereft of ideas”. He also sought to claim that “the Corbynistas are still there”, reviving the idea of Labour as a danger that was used in the 2019 campaign.

“Let’s not be complacent about the threat that Starmer’s party still poses,” he said. “Starmer can’t resist kowtowing to the cancel culture brigade because his base are the cancel culture brigade.”

The Conservatives had been widely thought to be planning an election for May 2024 but the imminent repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act means it could more easily be called sooner.

I don't know if there is a precedent for this sort of action (I know Trump did this during his Presidency in the US), but I do not think any Government of any colour should be campaigning for anywhere near this length of time for an election. The purpose of the Government is to govern. Yes in some ways the entire Parliament is like a campaign in some ways, and party conference's are sort of like campaigns, but that's just through the normal political business, this sounds more full-on. We have a dedicated campaign period where Parliament is dissolved and full-on campaigning is possible. I think this has a lot to do with Johnson being an excellent campaigner and poor leader, so by being in permanent campaign mode, Johnson can look strong/appealing.

Furthermore, as they are the Governing party, why don't they decide to implement what they're planning to campaign for over the next 2 years while they're actually in charge?
 

jon0844

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Speaking as an ex-Tory voter, I don't recognise the current party (and haven't for many years). They've become the same bunch of populist idiots as the Republican party has become, so I am not surprised in the least that they're going down this road - and will be mobilising all their supporters (and bots) to bombard people with stuff like this - just as the USA had the 'Lock her up' stuff.

I bet Boris would love to fill a stadium with loyal supports like Putin just did, and give one of his pre-prepared Churchill-esque speeches with a few jokes (Oh, Boris, you lovable rogue you!) but I suspect he isn't likely to be able to make that happen (but, in future years if the party got to pass new laws, who knows?).

I have no love for Corbyn, but he's gone. His brother is a loon that I'm sure they're also going to use to further attack Jeremy and the Labour party (ironic thing is that during the pandemic, his brother was probably seen as some sort of hero). I do remember that when I posted on Twitter a suggestion that people might vote for Labour as a strategic vote, I was bombarded with accusations of anti-Semitism.

That was a very effective strategy to try and shame supporters, and I guess we can be 100% certain they'll do that to try and scare people off. I mean, the current party have an exemplary record....!!
 

yorksrob

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Tory party chair Oliver Dowden announced plans to launch a two-year long election campaign this May:




I don't know if there is a precedent for this sort of action (I know Trump did this during his Presidency in the US), but I do not think any Government of any colour should be campaigning for anywhere near this length of time for an election. The purpose of the Government is to govern. Yes in some ways the entire Parliament is like a campaign in some ways, and party conference's are sort of like campaigns, but that's just through the normal political business, this sounds more full-on. We have a dedicated campaign period where Parliament is dissolved and full-on campaigning is possible. I think this has a lot to do with Johnson being an excellent campaigner and poor leader, so by being in permanent campaign mode, Johnson can look strong/appealing.

Furthermore, as they are the Governing party, why don't they decide to implement what they're planning to campaign for over the next 2 years while they're actually in charge?

For workers in the public sector, does this mean that purdah will last for two years !

Two years is far too long.
 

AM9

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For workers in the public sector, does this mean that purdah will last for two years !

Two years is far too long.
Purdah only applies once an election has been announced. A government couldn't function under those restrictions for that long, (not that this lot really functions much anyway).
 
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nw1

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Tory party chair Oliver Dowden announced plans to launch a two-year long election campaign this May:




I don't know if there is a precedent for this sort of action (I know Trump did this during his Presidency in the US), but I do not think any Government of any colour should be campaigning for anywhere near this length of time for an election. The purpose of the Government is to govern. Yes in some ways the entire Parliament is like a campaign in some ways, and party conference's are sort of like campaigns, but that's just through the normal political business, this sounds more full-on. We have a dedicated campaign period where Parliament is dissolved and full-on campaigning is possible. I think this has a lot to do with Johnson being an excellent campaigner and poor leader, so by being in permanent campaign mode, Johnson can look strong/appealing.

Furthermore, as they are the Governing party, why don't they decide to implement what they're planning to campaign for over the next 2 years while they're actually in charge?

Same old rubbish. The party responsible for Brexit, the Elections Bill and the Policing Bill, all of which severely restrict personal freedom, criticise Labour for the most minor, trivial things. It's the Tories who are implementing the extreme policies, as far as I am concerned. Starmer is the moderate, middle of the road one.

And as for 'net zero dogma', yeah right. The Tories are absolutely the party at the moment with the dogmatic ideas.

Maybe they should look at the plank in their own eyes before criticising the speck in Starmer's. But of course they won't do that. And too many people will be naive enough to swallow the Tory propaganda (aided and abetted by 80% of the UK national press, of course), and think that "cancel culture" is a bigger problem than Brexit or restrictions on protest, sadly. I am afraid that I agree with a previous poster that the Tory party is very much Trump-lite in its outlook and strategy.

If I were Labour I would be exploiting as many similarities between the Tories/Johnson and Trump as I could.
 
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MattRat

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Same old rubbish. The party responsible for Brexit, the Elections Bill and the Policing Bill, all of which severely restrict personal freedom, criticise Labour for the most minor, trivial things. It's the Tories who are implementing the extreme policies, as far as I am concerned. Starmer is the moderate, middle of the road one.

And as for 'net zero dogma', yeah right. The Tories are absolutely the party at the moment with the dogmatic ideas.

Maybe they should look at the plank in their own eyes before criticising the speck in Starmer's. But of course they won't do that. And too many people will be naive enough to swallow the Tory propaganda (aided and abetted by 80% of the UK national press, of course), and think that "cancel culture" is a bigger problem than Brexit or restrictions on protest, sadly. I am afraid that I agree with a previous poster that the Tory party is very much Trump-lite in its outlook and strategy.

If I were Labour I would be exploiting as many similarities between the Tories/Johnson and Trump as I could.
As far as I remember, Labour has been calling for even more restrictions these last 2 years.

If you can't consider for even a single moment that Labour might want to rethink their strategy, you, and by extension Labour, are doomed to keep failing.

Only when Labour look inwards and try and improve themselves, or at least make themselves look more electable, will the tories fall.

Or Lib Dems somehow manage to sneak up from the rear, one of the two.
 

nw1

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As far as I remember, Labour has been calling for even more restrictions these last 2 years.
If you can't consider for even a single moment that Labour might want to rethink their strategy, you, and by extension Labour, are doomed to keep failing.
That is just one issue - Covid - though. The next few years will be dominated by issues other than Covid. Other than being somewhat more lockdown-happy, Labour are to my mind the most moderate and least anti-freedom of the two parties.
 
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The Ham

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Speaking as an ex-Tory voter, I don't recognise the current party (and haven't for many years). They've become the same bunch of populist idiots as the Republican party has become, so I am not surprised in the least that they're going down this road - and will be mobilising all their supporters (and bots) to bombard people with stuff like this - just as the USA had the 'Lock her up' stuff.

I bet Boris would love to fill a stadium with loyal supports like Putin just did, and give one of his pre-prepared Churchill-esque speeches with a few jokes (Oh, Boris, you lovable rogue you!) but I suspect he isn't likely to be able to make that happen (but, in future years if the party got to pass new laws, who knows?).

I have no love for Corbyn, but he's gone. His brother is a loon that I'm sure they're also going to use to further attack Jeremy and the Labour party (ironic thing is that during the pandemic, his brother was probably seen as some sort of hero). I do remember that when I posted on Twitter a suggestion that people might vote for Labour as a strategic vote, I was bombarded with accusations of anti-Semitism.

That was a very effective strategy to try and shame supporters, and I guess we can be 100% certain they'll do that to try and scare people off. I mean, the current party have an exemplary record....!!

Anti Semitic, Woke, Liberal Elete, Remoaner pick another "group" to belittle your opponents as and it'll keep many from doing what you don't want them to do.

Of course some would rather have a debate over policy and such tactics would make them question those using them, however others don't react like that and don't have an issue with it happening.
 

317 forever

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Their intention to launch a 2 year Election campaign suggests that they are looking at a potential date of May 2024 after all, despite their intention to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
 

MattRat

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That is just one issue - Covid - though. The next few years will be dominated by issues other than Covid. Other than being somewhat more lockdown-happy, Labour are to my mind the most moderate and least anti-freedom of the two parties.
Ok, here's another example. Wanting a second referendum when the first didn't go their way....

To be fair, that was the majority of politicians, not just labour, but I wouldn't call them freedom loving. Accepting the public's votes is part of democracy, which is a part of freedom.

I'll even put it another way. Putin has a referendum on whether to stop the war or not, people vote to stop it, then he calls for another referendum claiming all sorts of rubbish simple because he didn't like the way the first one went.

Until Labour sees that, and actually commits to respecting the public, they'll never win, because then you just have the vote for the least worse, or even not voting at all, and Conservative voters are more committed to voting than Labour ones.
 

The Ham

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Ok, here's another example. Wanting a second referendum when the first didn't go their way....

To be fair, that was the majority of politicians, not just labour, but I wouldn't call them freedom loving. Accepting the public's votes is part of democracy, which is a part of freedom.

I'll even put it another way. Putin has a referendum on whether to stop the war or not, people vote to stop it, then he calls for another referendum claiming all sorts of rubbish simple because he didn't like the way the first one went.

Until Labour sees that, and actually commits to respecting the public, they'll never win, because then you just have the vote for the least worse, or even not voting at all, and Conservative voters are more committed to voting than Labour ones.

It could be argued that having a referendum which changes something significant on a pure 50%+1 majority is likely to lead to problems.

As it's always going to be an uphill struggle to get the other near 50% to agree to the change.

Whichever way the Brexit vote went it was going to cause problems, unless it was a much larger percentage one way or the other.

Potentially the most suitable outcome would have to have said that if the vote was close than (say) 60:40 that another vote would be scheduled for (say) 4 years time.

Yes you run the risk of having never ending referendums and your still have the problem of a significant number of people upset. However those upset are likely to be appeased a little by the fact that they get another vote fairly soon. Of course you also have the ability to see how things pan out, so in the case of Brexit was their a big push towards an EU army and/or Turkey joining quickly.

Conversely with a close result it could have been a strong argument for the EU to look at where things could be changed to reduce the level of division across the EU (as the Brexit vote strengthened those who wanted out of the EU elsewhere).

It would have been interesting to see the outcome, as I suspect that the result would have shifted a little towards remaining with the potential of a future vote if it's close.

However it could have also given more time for the EU and the UK to discuss the potential ramifications if it were to leave. For instance working out how Northern Ireland/UK/Republic of Ireland would operate.

Of course it would have also meant that we'd likely be looking at the result of the second Scottish Independence Vote (which would have also likely failed to reach 60%).

Likewise it's likely that we'd have had fewer general elections.

Overall we'd be in a very different place, probably just as many people upset and divided, however possibly to a less extreme extent.
 

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Their intention to launch a 2 year Election campaign suggests that they are looking at a potential date of May 2024 after all, despite their intention to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act.
I wondering whether there is another motivation. Conservatives activists and supporters will be just as affected by the tax and price rises shortly to hit us; many will find their living standards reduced, sometimes severely - maybe this is partly to galvanise the forces - the red menace hasn't gone away, Comrade Starmer is still a threat, sunlit uplands of the next Johnson Administration, forget the doomsters and the gloomsters, 'tax cuts' (just don't look too closely at what is happening now). Then the minute it doesn't look too bad (inflation down to 5% say) call a snap election. They are probably aware that Labour can't sustain a two year election campaign financially (and shouldn't - hold off until they see the whites of their eyes ie when Johnson goes to the Palace).
I'm not sure that a two year campaign is viable, it will exhaust activists. It might even be next December. Winter will lower the turnout, we'll have had Rishi's £200 gift loan but not had to pay it back and the £150 paid into our bank accounts by our council. There might even be another Johnson on the way. A lot will depend on how things go, but Johnson won't go to the polls if he thinks he is going to lose.
 

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Just a reminder that the Brexit discussion is here:
 
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