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When Will It All Go Wrong For The Tories/ Johnson?

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bspahh

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The Daily Mirror shows a picture of the Prime Minister flanked by three members of staff, one wearing tinsel and another a Santa hat, with champagne and crisps, at the event on December 15, 2020. This isn't one of the events that the police are investigating
Boris Johnson at a Downing Street Christmas Party on Dec 15th 2020, with a party hat, champagne and crisps
 
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Typhoon

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The Daily Mirror shows a picture of the Prime Minister flanked by three members of staff, one wearing tinsel and another a Santa hat, with champagne and crisps, at the event on December 15, 2020. This isn't one of the events that the police are investigating
Boris Johnson at a Downing Street Christmas Party on Dec 15th 2020, with a party hat, champagne and crisps
I think that's the quiz. I recognise Mr Tinsel (unless that is his normal work attire).
 

bspahh

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I think that's the quiz. I recognise Mr Tinsel (unless that is his normal work attire).
It does look like quite a big bottle of champagne for a couple of people in an office for a socially distanced Zoom quiz
 

brad465

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What's also worth adding to this is Cummings has said much 'better' photos than that one are out there, but presumably haven't got out because he or someone else is waiting to leak it at a more opportune time, and/or other photos are involved in the police investigation such that leaking them could have serious consequences for the leaker.


there's waaaaay better pics than that floating around, incl in the flat
 

Typhoon

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It does look like quite a big bottle of champagne for a couple of people in an office for a socially distanced Zoom quiz
Huffington News claims it is the quiz [uri]https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...rtygate-champagne_uk_6203ad3ae4b0f923ded830c6[/URL]
Boris Johnson is facing calls to refer another party in Downing Street to the police, after a photo revealed him taking part in a quiz with champagne and tinsel during lockdown.

On Wednesday afternoon, The Daily Mirror published the picture of the event on December 15, 2020.

The prime minister can be seen in a room with three people, apparently hosting a virtual quiz with others taking part online.

One person is wearing a Christmas hat, another has purple and pink tinsel draped around their neck.

There is an open bottle of champagne on the table and a half-eaten packet of crisps.

Covid rules in England at the time banned two or more people from different households from mixing indoors.

There are three others shown, maybe one of his photographers taking the picture? There could be more out of shot. Did they claim it was 'socially distanced'? Maybe they were using Rees Mogg's Imperial social distancing - the two inch rule*. And its thirsty work hosting a quiz.

* - could this be Rees Mogg's Brexit Opportunities - reintroduce the Imperial System?

What's also worth adding to this is Cummings has said much 'better' photos than that one are out there, but presumably haven't got out because he or someone else is waiting to leak it at a more opportune time, and/or other photos are involved in the police investigation such that leaking them could have serious consequences for the leaker.

Government hasn't got it into its head that Partygate will continue to be a story, no 'moving on' while there is the drip drip of new evidence. Maybe not page one, maybe a picture on the front page inviting readers to go to page 3 or 5. They should have come clean ages ago.
 
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dosxuk

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maybe one of his photographers taking the picture?
It looks like a picture of a computer screen - probably the webcam feed on zoom / teams / whatever from before the quiz started and they moved the champers out of the way - this is one of the previous quiz photos:

1176.jpg


Remember this is when, according to Number 10
The Prime Minister briefly took part virtually in a quiz to thank staff for their hard work throughout the year
and according to Nadhim Zahawi
These are people who work together... There is no drink here. I don't think there's a rule against recognizing Christmas with tinsel or a hat
 

nw1

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Huffington News claims it is the quiz [uri]https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...rtygate-champagne_uk_6203ad3ae4b0f923ded830c6[/URL]


There are three others shown, maybe one of his photographers taking the picture? There could be more out of shot. Did they claim it was 'socially distanced'? Maybe they were using Rees Mogg's Imperial social distancing - the two inch rule*. And its thirsty work hosting a quiz.

* - could this be Rees Mogg's Brexit Opportunities - reintroduce the Imperial System?
Indeed. And get rid of the decimal pound too. Modern nonsense, we can't have that in Brexit Britain! Let's introduce the old system, where 23 and three quarter groats made a denarius and 59 and seven eighths denarii made a pound. ;)
 

davetheguard

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Indeed. And get rid of the decimal pound too. Modern nonsense, we can't have that in Brexit Britain! Let's introduce the old system, where 23 and three quarter groats made a denarius and 59 and seven eighths denarii made a pound. ;)

Be very careful what you mention in jest; this lot might take you up on it.

Personally, I'm waiting for the honourable member for the eighteenth century to suggest that we get rid of that nasty, foreign Gregorian calendar that we finally adopted in 1752, a mere 170 years after some other European countries started to use it. We could "take back control" of the 11 days that we were forced to lose when we stopped using the deeply flawed old calendar.
 

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Indeed. And get rid of the decimal pound too. Modern nonsense, we can't have that in Brexit Britain! Let's introduce the old system, where 23 and three quarter groats made a denarius and 59 and seven eighths denarii made a pound. ;)
Oi, don't give them any ideas! ;)
 

edwin_m

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The Daily Mirror shows a picture of the Prime Minister flanked by three members of staff, one wearing tinsel and another a Santa hat, with champagne and crisps, at the event on December 15, 2020. This isn't one of the events that the police are investigating
Boris Johnson at a Downing Street Christmas Party on Dec 15th 2020, with a party hat, champagne and crisps
Maybe it will be now.


The Metropolitan Police will review its decision not to investigate a Christmas quiz in No 10 after a picture of Boris Johnson was leaked to the press.
 

MattRat

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The Daily Mirror shows a picture of the Prime Minister flanked by three members of staff, one wearing tinsel and another a Santa hat, with champagne and crisps, at the event on December 15, 2020. This isn't one of the events that the police are investigating
Boris Johnson at a Downing Street Christmas Party on Dec 15th 2020, with a party hat, champagne and crisps
Why are some faces blurred out?
 

Typhoon

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It looks like a picture of a computer screen - probably the webcam feed on zoom / teams / whatever from before the quiz started and they moved the champers out of the way
Ah, yes. I see the edge in the corner. Thanks.

'Took part briefly' - time passes fast when you are enjoying yourself.

'There is no drink here' - they finished it off before the Quiz started/ "No one told me champagne was alcoholic".
 
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brad465

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Sir John Major has spoken out in criticism of all the No 10 parties, claiming they broke the law:


Boris Johnson and his officials "broke lockdown laws" over parties held in Downing Street, Conservative former Prime Minister Sir John Major has said.
He accused the government of feeling it "need not obey the rules", adding: "Outright lies breed contempt."
Sir John's comments come while 12 gatherings are still being investigated by the Metropolitan Police.
Mr Johnson, who is coming under pressure to quit, said he was looking forward to the process being completed.
That would be "the time to say something" on the matter, the PM added, as he answered questions during a press conference in Brussels.

The Met is reviewing its previous decision not to investigate a Christmas quiz in No 10 in 2020, after the Mirror published a photograph of Mr Johnson with three aides - wearing tinsel and a Santa hat - near a bottle of sparkling wine.
It also announced on Wednesday that it was emailing more than 50 people as part of its existing inquiry into lockdown parties.
Mr Johnson - who is known to have attended three gatherings - and wife Carrie are among those expected to be contacted.
The Met said people emailed would not necessarily have to pay a fine, adding that this would "normally" happen where officers believed regulations had been breached without reasonable excuse.

But, in a speech to the Institute for Government think tank, Sir John said: "At No 10, the prime minister and officials broke lockdown laws.
"Brazen excuses were dreamed up. Day after day the public was asked to believe the unbelievable. Ministers were sent out to defend the indefensible - making themselves look gullible or foolish."
Sir John, in office from 1990 to 1997, added: "The prime minister and our present government not only challenge the law, but also seem to believe that they, and they alone, need not obey the rules, traditions, conventions - call them what you will - of public life.
"The charge that there is one law for the government, and one for everyone else is politically deadly - and it has struck home."
Sir John, who has previously criticised Mr Johnson over his handling of Brexit and called the government "politically corrupt" in its treatment of the House of Commons, said: "When ministers respond to legitimate questions with pre-prepared sound bites, or half-truths, or misdirection, or wild exaggeration, then respect for government and politics dies a little more."
He urged the prime minister to introduce a "fully independent" guardian of ethics in politics and new laws to limit political funding by individuals, companies and trade unions.
Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and some Conservative MPs have called for Mr Johnson to resign over the Downing Street gatherings.
If 54 Tory MPs write letters declaring no confidence in the prime minister, this will prompt a vote by all Tory MPs, which would see Mr Johnson ousted, should he lose.
The Met investigation began after Sue Gray, the senior civil servant looking into the gatherings, passed on her findings.
Her interim report criticised "failures of leadership and judgement" within government, while her full findings are expected to come out after the Met concludes its investigation.
Mr Johnson said; "That [Met investigation] process must be completed and I'm looking forward to it being completed, and that's the time to say something on that."
And Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "The prime minister has said he will be full and transparent. He will notify [the public] if he is receiving any form of fine et cetera."

What really highlights how much the Tories have changed since 2016 is that current Tory supporters, particularly in the media, almost universally despise him and what he says, arguably as much as they despise any Labour leader, or as much as the far left in Labour despise Blair.
 

Typhoon

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Sir John Major has spoken out in criticism of all the No 10 parties, claiming they broke the law:

What really highlights how much the Tories have changed since 2016 is that current Tory supporters, particularly in the media, almost universally despise him and what he says, arguably as much as they despise any Labour leader, or as much as the far left in Labour despise Blair.
1. He lost in '97 (spectacularly)
2. He was pro-EU. Anti-EU got them a thumping majority.
 

Strathclyder

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Sir John Major has spoken out in criticism of all the No 10 parties, claiming they broke the law:




What really highlights how much the Tories have changed since 2016 is that current Tory supporters, particularly in the media, almost universally despise him and what he says, arguably as much as they despise any Labour leader, or as much as the far left in Labour despise Blair.
Said it before and I'll say it again: it really shows how far the Tories have fallen when I find myself in broad agreement with a former Tory PM. Major really does come across as measured and reasonable (so of course the current mob in No.10 and their sycophants in the media would hate him), in stark contrast to the Worzel Gummidge/Angry Cabbage Patch Kid hybrid we've been lumbered with.
 

nw1

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1. He lost in '97 (spectacularly)
2. He was pro-EU. Anti-EU got them a thumping majority.

I don't think this is necessarily true. Only a minority, I suspect, were obsessed about leaving the EU at the time of the 2019 election. It's more, I suspect, that people were, rightly or wrongly, worried about Corbyn, plus some thought Johnson was a 'character' and that made him automatically a good choice for the PM in some people's eyes.

If the election was between a pro-Brexiter leader of the Tories who wasn't Johnson, and an anti-Brexiter leader of Labour who was generally middle of the road, and personality-wise they were similar, I suspect a hung parliament would have been the outcome.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

This is the major problem right now. Anyone anti-Tory is also anti-majority. We need someone anti-Tory but pro-majority.
What do you mean by anyone anti-Tory being 'anti-majority'? This is a divided nation on all sorts of issues. I doubt there is a clear majority on any of the issues facing the country today, except on opposition to energy price rises and other increases in the cost of living: and I don't think the opponents to the Tories are speaking out in favour of those. Remember it's the Tories cranking up national insurance at a time when many people can ill afford it.

If we're talking about the parliamentary majority of the Tories, this is just an artefact of the FPTP system and does not mean that a majority of the electorate have views which align with those of the Tory party; particularly as Johnson has fallen out of favour.
 
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MattRat

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What do you mean by anyone anti-Tory being 'anti-majority'? This is a divided nation on all sorts of issues. I doubt there is a clear majority on any of the issues facing the country today, except on opposition to energy price rises and other increases in the cost of living: and I don't think the opponents to the Tories are speaking out in favour of those.

If we're talking about the parliamentary majority of the Tories, this is just an artefact of the FPTP system and does not mean that a majority of the electorate have views which align with those of the Tory party; particularly as Johnson has fallen out of favour.
What I generally mean is the other parties pride themselves on being pro-minority. The thing is, most people don't care. That doesn't make them a long list of isms, that just means they think about number one, and as long as that's sorted, a government can effectively do whatever it likes. If you can get the vote of say, the white working class, you win, and THEN you can implement minority policies. If the other parties can actually figure that out, the Tories are toast.
 

Arglwydd Golau

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I don't think this is necessarily true. Only a minority, I suspect, were obsessed about leaving the EU at the time of the 2019 election. It's more, I suspect, that people were, rightly or wrongly, worried about Corbyn, plus some thought Johnson was a 'character' and that made him automatically a good choice for the PM in some people's eyes.
Don't know about that! I would say it was about Brexit ('Get Brexit done' was a great slogan)...and without wishing to get into a great debate about Corbyn, why did 40% or so vote Labour in 2017? He didn't change in the intervening two years.
 

DynamicSpirit

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Don't know about that! I would say it was about Brexit ('Get Brexit done' was a great slogan)...and without wishing to get into a great debate about Corbyn, why did 40% or so vote Labour in 2017? He didn't change in the intervening two years.

Why did 40% or so vote Labour in 2017? That's easy to answer! In 2017, Corbyn hadn't been leader for that long, and many of things he did to totally alienate lots of Labour supporters were still in the future (the cosying up to Putin over the Salisbury poisonings, the failure to tackle anti-Semitism followed by the attempts to smear moderates about it, etc.). In 2017 the Corbynite left didn't have full control over Labour, which resulted in a manifesto a fair bit more moderate than the 2019 one. But most important of all, 2017 was the year when the Tories ran what must rank as one of the most disastrous election campaigns in recent history in the UK, pushing supporters away by the score with such things as the social care fiasco and the tone-deaf response to the terrorist attacks. Before those things happened in the middle of the campaign, they were on the road to a landslide victory.

In 2017 I was still in the Labour Party and campaigning for them. I remember how when the social care thing broke, you could sense the way voters were responding to you on the doorstep just transformed almost overnight.

I would say that 40%+ vote share had almost nothing to do with Corbyn and everything to do with very fortunate circumstances for Labour plus Labour running a pretty professional campaign.
 

brad465

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Why did 40% or so vote Labour in 2017? That's easy to answer! In 2017, Corbyn hadn't been leader for that long, and many of things he did to totally alienate lots of Labour supporters were still in the future (the cosying up to Putin over the Salisbury poisonings, the failure to tackle anti-Semitism followed by the attempts to smear moderates about it, etc.). In 2017 the Corbynite left didn't have full control over Labour, which resulted in a manifesto a fair bit more moderate than the 2019 one. But most important of all, 2017 was the year when the Tories ran what must rank as one of the most disastrous election campaigns in recent history in the UK, pushing supporters away by the score with such things as the social care fiasco and the tone-deaf response to the terrorist attacks. Before those things happened in the middle of the campaign, they were on the road to a landslide victory.

In 2017 I was still in the Labour Party and campaigning for them. I remember how when the social care thing broke, you could sense the way voters were responding to you on the doorstep just transformed almost overnight.

I would say that 40%+ vote share had almost nothing to do with Corbyn and everything to do with very fortunate circumstances for Labour plus Labour running a pretty professional campaign.
I would add the Brexit drama hadn't got going by that point, and Corbyn's position being very unclear after (which was caused by his leave stance personally but Labour's core being Remain). That said Labour were in dire straights while Corbyn was the subject of a no confidence vote and leadership challenge immediately after the referendum result and recovered somewhat from that. In 2019 not only was the campaign not disastrous for the Tories, it was led by one of the most hypnotic people to have ever graced politics. Brexit was the perfect policy to split the left; if remain had won he'd have had a much better chance of being PM I think.

I do think in hindsight the country would be in a better place if the Tories won the 2017 election with a slightly higher majority to 2015, even if still not an ideal place. May would have had stronger authority, so could have held Johnson off for longer, and getting her Brexit deal over the line would have been more likely, leading to Brexit being both softer and perhaps also on time. Corbyn would no longer have been Labour leader and the process Starmer has started would have started sooner, even if he wasn't the one doing it. Getting Brexit out of the way sooner would have given Labour a chance to to find other hills to attack the Tories on by the time the following election would have taken place, which would have been this year.



Elsewhere Johnson has received a questionnaire from the Met about the partygate investigations:


Boris Johnson has received a questionnaire from the Metropolitan Police as part of the inquiry into parties held at Downing Street during the Covid lockdowns.
 

nw1

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Don't know about that! I would say it was about Brexit ('Get Brexit done' was a great slogan)...and without wishing to get into a great debate about Corbyn, why did 40% or so vote Labour in 2017? He didn't change in the intervening two years.

The Corbyn points have been discussed in the following posts, but remember that support for Brexit was never higher than just over half (and I suspect a lot of people voted for Leave just because they didn't like Cameron, not because they actually wanted to leave the EU), and if opinion polls were right, had dropped below that by 2019.

The split of the opposition was a third factor that I did not mention, the anti-Tory and anti-Johnson vote was split between Labour and the Lib Dems. Again, that helped the Tories get a majority, with the constant Lab-Lib squabbling a significant contributing factor. Maybe some people voted for Johnson because of wanting Brexit, but I suspect that dislike of Labour the way it was at that time, and (rightly or wrongly) attraction to Johnson's character were more important factors. Why else would vast swathes of Remain-voting southern England vote Tory again? Not because they wanted Brexit, I suspect they didn't, but because some didn't like Corbyn, some of them were attracted to Johnson on character grounds, and many people didn't know which way to cast an anti-Tory vote so the anti-Tory vote ended up being split.

Perhaps, on the Lib Dem side, dislike of Swinson too, who did come across very egotistical (for example the 'NEXT PRIME MINISTER OF THE UK' election leaflet when she couldn't even hold her seat!)

Essentially it was a 'pick the least worst choice' election for many people. All three leaders were pretty poor; it was more a case of who you disliked the least, Johnson or Corbyn.
 
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317 forever

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Why did 40% or so vote Labour in 2017? That's easy to answer! In 2017, Corbyn hadn't been leader for that long, and many of things he did to totally alienate lots of Labour supporters were still in the future (the cosying up to Putin over the Salisbury poisonings, the failure to tackle anti-Semitism followed by the attempts to smear moderates about it, etc.). In 2017 the Corbynite left didn't have full control over Labour, which resulted in a manifesto a fair bit more moderate than the 2019 one. But most important of all, 2017 was the year when the Tories ran what must rank as one of the most disastrous election campaigns in recent history in the UK, pushing supporters away by the score with such things as the social care fiasco and the tone-deaf response to the terrorist attacks. Before those things happened in the middle of the campaign, they were on the road to a landslide victory.

In 2017 I was still in the Labour Party and campaigning for them. I remember how when the social care thing broke, you could sense the way voters were responding to you on the doorstep just transformed almost overnight.

I would say that 40%+ vote share had almost nothing to do with Corbyn and everything to do with very fortunate circumstances for Labour plus Labour running a pretty professional campaign.
Theresa May has been the only Conservative Prime Minister since Alec Douglas-Hume in 1964 never to win a majority. Although she is dedicated to public service, she is just not such a strong campaigner.

Admittedly William Hague and Michael Howard of course never won a majority, nor Iain Duncan-Smith who could never even contest a General Election, but then they were never elected Prime Minister.
 

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A recent political issue for the Government has been sewage discharging into rivers and coastal areas, which saw a supposed Government climbdown in a Parliamentary vote for tougher Water company regulations, that were quietly never added. It now seems to be so bad that The Telegraph of all papers have launched a campaign to try and force the issue to be tackled, which featured somewhere on their front page on Monday and now today as well. This makes me wonder if they realise the issue could become serious enough to damage the Government's electoral chances if not tackled soon:


1644884297325.png
 

brad465

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Honours for those believed to have dirt on Johnson:


Former defence secretary and education secretary Gavin Williamson is to receive a knighthood.
The Conservative MP for South Staffordshire was sacked from the cabinet in last September's reshuffle.
Mr Williamson faced opposition calls to quit over his handling of disruption to England's schools and exams during the pandemic.
The 45-year-old, whose first career was in manufacturing, previously served as the government's chief whip.
He was given a CBE in 2016 for political and public service, and it is understood that his knighthood is being awarded for the same reasons.
Mr Williamson was first elected to Parliament in 2010 and became chief whip, in charge of Conservative Party discipline, under Prime Minister Theresa May, in 2016.
While in that role he notably kept a pet tarantula called Cronus on his desk.
In 2017, Mrs May made Mr Williamson defence secretary, a role he served in until 2019 when she sacked him, saying she had "lost confidence in his ability to serve".
This followed an inquiry into a leak from a National Security Council meeting on whether the Chinese firm Huawei should be involved in setting up the UK's 5G network. Mrs May said she had "compelling evidence" that Mr Williamson was responsible for the leak, but he denied this.

Exam difficulties​

He returned to the cabinet as education secretary in summer 2019, after Boris Johnson became prime minister.
But his time in the job was marked by severe criticism from opposition parties over his handling of school closures, free school meal provision and GCSE and A-level exams during the Covid pandemic.
Mr Williamson was replaced as education secretary by Nadhim Zahawi in last autumn's reshuffle.
Reacting to the news of his knighthood, Labour's shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson said: "Gavin Williamson let children to go hungry, created two years of complete chaos over exams and failed to get laptops out to kids struggling to learn during lockdowns. His record is astonishing and disgraceful."
Mr Williamson has not commented so far on his honour.
 

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brad465

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Carole Cadwalladr produced a Twitter Thread earlier this evening talking about why Williamson's knighthood announcement came today, citing him tipping off key sources about Johnson's connections to Russian influence:


NEW: Boris Johnson awards Gavin Williamson a knighthood. Why *now*? In middle of Russian crisis? He was appointed defence secretary in Nov 2017 at exact moment, FBI revealed its Trump-Russia investigation began in London. Is this relevant? 1/

Continued...
 
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