When should BR Era units be withdrawn from service?

[tfw756rider]

In my opinion, absolutely no 158s/159s (or 150s/153s/155s/156s, or any old-style ex-British Rail units) should be in National Rail service much into the 2030s, and late 90s (168/170 etc.) should then be the age cut-off for a decent amount of time.

Other than the planned replacement of Transport for Wales and then Northern's 158s (and South Western Railway looking to replace their 159s, and surely their 158s as well, with battery-fitted 450s), won't Great Western Railway and ScotRail's 158s be replaced as part of their plans for new trains?

East Midlands Railway having "no plans" to replace their 158s (and the same for Transport for Wales' "staying" 153s and London Northwestern Railway's 150s) is quite concerning. I do have an idea of what could replace them if a certain thing happens, but as this isn't Speculative Discussion, I'll stop.

 

[The exile]

In my opinion, absolutely no 158s/159s (or 150s/153s/155s/156s, or any old-style ex-British Rail units) should be in National Rail service much into the 2030s, and late 90s (168/170 etc.) should then be the age cut-off for a decent amount of time.

Unless you’re using “age” as shorthand for reliability and travelling ambience, then it’s the wrong criterion. Other than boasting “mine’s newer than yours”, age per se is irrelevant. Clearly age is likely to affect reliability, running costs and passenger ambience eventually, but quite a few newer builds have a head start on failing one or more of those tests.

 

[tfw756rider]

Unless you’re using “age” as shorthand for reliability and travelling ambience, then it’s the wrong criterion. Other than boasting “mine’s newer than yours”, age per se is irrelevant. Clearly age is likely to affect reliability, running costs and passenger ambience eventually, but quite a few newer builds have a head start on failing one or more of those tests.

While I get what you're saying, 158s are already between 33 and 36 years old in 2025 - in 2030, they'll be between 38 and 41 (!) years old, and that's before we even get to the older Sprinters.

By comparison, the oldest 168s/170s are "only" 27 years old in 2025, and will still "only" be 32 years old in 2030 (the same age as a 1993 166 in 2025).* And even then, I think 170s etc. will be far more acceptable to keep in service for a decent amount of time, because they're not old-fashioned boxy ex-British Rail trains like 158s/Sprinters are (and I'm saying that despite being someone whose "childhood nostalgia" and "most familiar" class of train is the 158. I think at some point, you've just got to move on).

*I keep forgetting about the "non-star" Turbos for some reason, and of course those will surely also be replaced by Great Western Railway as part of their plans for new trains, and Chiltern Railways have also said in an interview (Green Signals, 31/10/24) that they'd like to replace theirs eventually as well.

 

[supervc-10]

I see no reason to have an arbitrary age cut-off. Instead, base it on reliability, emissions/fuel use, and passenger comfort. The other big thing is structural integrity - steel bodied units will need ever more patching up due to corrosion, as we've seen with Mk.3 coaches as well.

 

[tfw756rider]

I see no reason to have an arbitrary age cut-off. Instead, base it on reliability, emissions/fuel use, and passenger comfort. The other big thing is structural integrity - steel bodied units will need ever more patching up due to corrosion, as we've seen with Mk.3 coaches as well.

It's interesting to hear yours and others' points of view on this (by the way, the first three messages were moved from the Class 158/159 thread in Traction & Rolling Stock, just to point that out).

While I get what you're saying as well, I still stand by my opinion that 170s etc. should be the oldest age of train still in National Rail service after the early 2030s (for a decent amount of time after that).

Now that this thread is in Speculative Discussion, I hope that the electrification of a certain line in central England (including the introduction of what would be its electric multiple units) does happen around the early 2030s, as that would release:

27 - by then "only" ~20 year old - diesel multiple units that could replace East Midlands Railway's 26 - by then 40 (!) year old - 158s,
as well as
12 - by then "only" ~20 year old - diesel multiple units that could replace Transport for Wales' - by then 45 (!) year old - "staying" 153s.