When do you think the first class 66 withdrawals will happen?

[BRX]

If you had to place a bet, when do you think we'll see the first functional class 66 withdrawn from service in the UK? 5 years, 10 years, 20?

I'm excluding withdrawals due to one off incidents, like collision damage that isn't economical to repair. I'm talking about the point at which they start becoming uneconomical to run in large numbers.

What will get them first - other types of traction (presumably mainly electrical) taking over (or diesel becoming too expensive), or will they clank on until they become too worn out to keep in service without spending lots on refurbishment?

A subsidiary question: when do you think the last 66 will run in the UK in revenue earning service?

The class 37s are still hanging on about 60 years after they were built. If the newest 66s last that long they'll still be on the go in the 2070s.

 

[Class15]

I’d personally say that some of the stored DB ones are unlikely to work again, but happy to be proved wrong. They were not withdrawn due to collision damage or anything like that.

 

[BRX]

I didn't know DB had some in storage. My impression has been that in the last few years everyone's been using as many as they can get their hands on.

 

[sad1e]

I didn't know DB had some in storage. My impression has been that in the last few years everyone's been using as many as they can get their hands on.

Well everyone but DB have been scrambling to get their hands on more 66's. DB have lost a large chunk of the contracts that they had in their EWS days.

To be honest too many 66's were ordered in the first place , many of them were ordered for flows that only had a very short term future at the time they were ordered , such as coal.

 

[31160]

Isn't 66048 officially been binned by now

 

[Trainman40083]

Isn't 66048 officially been binned by now

Is that the black body shell at Longport?

 

[31160]

Is that the black body shell at Longport?

Yep

 

[sad1e]

The class 37s are still hanging on about 60 years after they were built. If the newest 66s last that long they'll still be on the go in the 2070s.

The only reason class 37's are still around for test trains on the mainline is due to their RA of 5 which allows them to haul test trains along the overwhelming majority of lines in the country.

With an RA of 7 , No ETS and Traction to replace 66's already in the works in the form of the class 99 i wouldn't expect them to have nearly as long of a life.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 14 Nov 2025 ==

Isn't 66048 officially been binned by now

Tbh I wouldn't really count 66048 as a withdrawal as it was heavily accident damaged.

 

[Strathclyder]

As @BRX mentions, the answer to this depends on a multitude of factors: ecomomical to run in large numbers, fuel prices, newer traction taking over their work, availabilty of parts, viabilty of overhaul etc. One-off accidents of course don't really count.

If we were just going by age/build date alone (granted, even this can be very nebulous), the first 4 EWS 66s were delivered in 1998 (66001 in April*, 003 thru 005 followed in August afterwhich the proverbial floodgates opened) would be the first to get the chop as they're approaching 30 years old now (will be 28 next year) with the rest of the EWS order not far behind with all of them having originally entered traffic over 25 years ago. I suspect though that the first 'routine' 66 withdrawal - barring anything happening with any of the stored examples, their fortunes could very well change (obviously barring what's left of 048) - won't occur for another 10 to 15 years at the very least I'd wager.

As for the final 66 withdrawal from revenue service, the late 2040s/early 2050s seem the most likely for the last ones built (779 Evening Star** etc) if one sticks to the above crieteria. Given what @sad1e has pointed out with regards to comparing the 66's potential longevity vs how long the 37s have stayed the course, I can't see the larger and heavier 66s lasting quite as long in such roles.

*: 002 didn't touch down on UK soil until April 1999 as it had been held back from an eariler delivery date for extensive testing state-side, by which time locos up to around 66093 had been delivered with most in traffic.

**: Off-topic and totally random, but it's literally just struck me that both extant Evening Stars (92220 & 66689) were the last of their respective classes to be offically built, but both have/had higher-numbered classmates that were built eariler.

 

[31160]

As much as I really don't like them 001 should be preserved somewhere not necessarily working just somewhere

 

[Trainman40083]

As much as I really don't like them 001 should be preserved somewhere not necessarily working just somewhere

But do you preserve the first or the last?

 

[D365]

But do you preserve the first or the last?

it’s not worked for Class 56 or Class 58!

The last built Class 66 (GBRf’s ’Evening Star’) is already designated for preservation.

 

[Class15]

Well everyone but DB have been scrambling to get their hands on more 66's.

I disagree. Freightliner has been hiring them out, and DRS gave up the 66/3s and probably will lose more when the Chiltern 68s return to DRS.

 

[DanNCL]

GBRF are the only ones who have been ‘scrambling to get their hands on more 66s’, everyone else seems to have more of them than they know what to do with.
If the 99s prove themselves to be capable successors then I could see GBRF potentially starting to replace their 66s with 99s and possibly others following suit.
As such, I’m going to predict we may see 66s start to be withdrawn around 2030.

 

[HSTEd]

I dont think the railfreight sector will ever voluntarily give up the Class 66, so I expect significant (non accident) withdrawals will only occur if and when the government compels it.

The economics of a two-stroke diesel using comparatively lightly taxed fuel, without the efficiency and other costs associated with modern emissions control, will be virtually impossible to beat

 

[Strathclyder]

it’s not worked for Class 56 or Class 58!

56006 was the first of the class to be accepted into BR traffic, though of course not the first one built. The former was the reason it was chosen for preservation if I recall correctly.

The whole 'preserve the first of the line' thing has only really occurred with a relatively small number of classes, be they steam, diesel or electric (barring prototypes/one-offs of course by their very nature, so 89001 & DP1 don't really count). 70000 Britannia and 6000 King George V spring immediately to mind for steam, as do 142001, E3036/84001, D9000/55022, D1500/47401 & D5500/31018 for 'modern' traction. There are other examples I have of course forgotten.

 

[Mike Machin]

The Class 66s aren’t doing too badly. If they’d had a similar lifespan to some of the BR classes like the Hymeks for example, withdrawals would have started in 2007 with the last survivors being taken out of traffic in 2011!

I appreciate that there are far, far more 66s than there were 35s, but it does emphasise just how short the working lifespans of some BR locomotives actually was!!

 

[Noddy]

The class 37s are still hanging on about 60 years after they were built. If the newest 66s last that long they'll still be on the go in the 2070s.

I have absolutely no issue with the 66s but I really hope that it will be completely uneconomical to be running (any form of) diesel engines by the 2070s.

 

[Trainbike46]

I dont think the railfreight sector will ever voluntarily give up the Class 66, so I expect significant (non accident) withdrawals will only occur if and when the government compels it.

The economics of a two-stroke diesel using comparatively lightly taxed fuel, without the efficiency and other costs associated with modern emissions control, will be virtually impossible to beat

66s aren't two stroke, are they??

Diesel getting expensive, which I suspect will happen when roads haulage abandons it, is what I think will kill the 66s

 

[JamesT]

66s aren't two stroke, are they??

Diesel getting expensive, which I suspect will happen when roads haulage abandons it, is what I think will kill the 66s

They’re EMD 710 engines, two stroke diesel.

 

[DelW]

66s aren't two stroke, are they??

Diesel getting expensive, which I suspect will happen when roads haulage abandons it, is what I think will kill the 66s

They’re EMD 710 engines, two stroke diesel.

Until stricter emissions regulations in the early 2000s, most (possibly all?) EMD locos had two stroke engines.
GM bought the then Winton Engine Company in 1930. Their 201 engine had been one of the earliest diesel engines built in the USA, and was developed successively into the GM/EMD 567, 645 and 710 series of engines (= cylinder volume in cubic inches). So the 59s (645 engines) and 66s (710 engines) trace their engine ancestry back before WW2.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

So many factors- political too. If vehicle excise duty was increased substantially to pay for other stuff the government wants ( plug holes in finance) then freight by rail becomes more economical so the 66s would be life extended possibly.

 

[JamesT]

So many factors- political too. If vehicle excise duty was increased substantially to pay for other stuff the government wants ( plug holes in finance) then freight by rail becomes more economical so the 66s would be life extended possibly.

Or on the flip side, the environmental lobby convince government that one mode of transport having considerably lower duty costs than others is incompatible with our green aims...

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Or on the flip side, the environmental lobby convince government that one mode of transport having considerably lower duty costs than others is incompatible with our green aims...

Not straightforward is it?

 

[HSTEd]

66s aren't two stroke, are they??

Diesel getting expensive, which I suspect will happen when roads haulage abandons it, is what I think will kill the 66s

Rail diesel/fuel oil is likely to remain very cheap for the forseable future.

Falling demand for road vehicle fuel is going to collapse demand for oil products to well below current supply.

Once we are into "fossil fuel run off", oil prices are likely to fall to the order of $20-30/barrel, which is the cost of production in the lowest cost portion of the market.
The Saudis will keep pumping oil down to $10/barrel, with supplies in the Ghawar field good for many years yet.

The rail sector is easily capable of running its own fuel supply chain given even freight still burns well over 100,000 tonnes per year.

The question is whether the government will be willing to face down the railfreight lobby to impose decarbonisation, given it has handed the railfreight industry a very powerful bargaining tool with the freight expansion target.

 

[Noddy]

Rail diesel/fuel oil is likely to remain very cheap for the forseable future.

Falling demand for road vehicle fuel is going to collapse demand for oil products to well below current supply.

Once we are into "fossil fuel run off", oil prices are likely to fall to the order of $20-30/barrel, which is the cost of production in the lowest cost portion of the market.
The Saudis will keep pumping oil down to $10/barrel, with supplies in the Ghawar field good for many years yet.

The rail sector is easily capable of running its own fuel supply chain given even freight still burns well over 100,000 tonnes per year.

The question is whether the government will be willing to face down the railfreight lobby to impose decarbonisation, given it has handed the railfreight industry a very powerful bargaining tool with the freight expansion target.

Over the next decade or so that might be true but problem with that analysis is that it assumes that the percentage costs of diesel remains proportionally tied to the cost of crude oil. Currently the cost of crude accounts for very roughly 50% of the raw cost of ‘red’ diesel at the pump. As demand for the product falls the cost of processing, refining, storage and transportation will become far more important. In the Uk consumption fell by 968 million litres (3.2% or 830,000 tonnes) in 2023-24 (and it’s a similar story across most of Europe). That rate is going to continue over the next two decades as diesel is largely eliminated from road transportation pushing the largely fixed costs of processing, refining, storage and transportation onto an ever small number of customers. But not only that, in the rail freight world the 93 and 99s (and their successors) will be introduced over the next few years (and decades) so that 100,000 tonnes itself will diminish.

In terms of the government target to increase rail freight a key part of the rationale behind this is (to quote the government) that it improves our environment – a tonne of freight moved by rail produces around a quarter of the carbon emissions that it would if it were moved by road. By 2050 the road freight industry will largely be fully electrified, powered by low carbon renewables and nuclear. If the rail freight industry is still running around a load of 40-50 year old diesel 66s that argument is completely reversed.

 

[BRX]

Presumably road freight becoming largely electrified will mean that the technology & economics that enable that have got to a point where electric traction away from the wires will be similarly viable for the rail industry.

 

[The Foghorn]

Our "green" government continues to suppress increases in road fuel duty whilst increasing Climate Change Levy on business electricity bills, this penalising a railway wanting to haul freight with electric traction.

 

[HSTEd]

Over the next decade or so that might be true but problem with that analysis is that it assumes that the percentage costs of diesel remains proportionally tied to the cost of crude oil. Currently the cost of crude accounts for very roughly 50% of the raw cost of ‘red’ diesel at the pump. As demand for the product falls the cost of processing, refining, storage and transportation will become far more important. In the Uk consumption fell by 968 million litres (3.2% or 830,000 tonnes) in 2023-24 (and it’s a similar story across most of Europe). That rate is going to continue over the next two decades as diesel is largely eliminated from road transportation pushing the largely fixed costs of processing, refining, storage and transportation onto an ever small number of customers. But not only that, in the rail freight world the 93 and 99s (and their successors) will be introduced over the next few years (and decades) so that 100,000 tonnes itself will diminish.

The number of 93s and 99s ordered is rather small compared to the active railfreight locomotive fleet (although no good stats actually exist that I've been able to find on how big the active fleet is). It will be a long time before orders of such small numbers of locomotives can materially change the composition of the actual fleet.

Also, low speed diesel engines like the EMD 710 are quite forgiving on fuel quality.
They will be able to burn a much lower standard of diesel than is currently commonly available in the UK, they will not require complex refining and upgrading operations to meet a usable specification.

They can also burn jet fuel if they want.

In terms of the government target to increase rail freight a key part of the rationale behind this is (to quote the government) that it improves our environment – a tonne of freight moved by rail produces around a quarter of the carbon emissions that it would if it were moved by road. By 2050 the road freight industry will largely be fully electrified, powered by low carbon renewables and nuclear. If the rail freight industry is still running around a load of 40-50 year old diesel 66s that argument is completely reversed.

Eventually yes, but the railfreight industry is very skeptical of the idea that road decarbonisation can actually occur.
I don't think they will want to adapt until it is far too late, and just trust in their political clout to protect them until it can't any more.

And it will probably damage the railway's own political position through its intransigence.

 

[Noddy]

The number of 93s and 99s ordered is rather small compared to the active railfreight locomotive fleet (although no good stats actually exist that I've been able to find on how big the active fleet is). It will be a long time before orders of such small numbers of locomotives can materially change the composition of the actual fleet.

Also, low speed diesel engines like the EMD 710 are quite forgiving on fuel quality.
They will be able to burn a much lower standard of diesel than is currently commonly available in the UK, they will not require complex refining and upgrading operations to meet a usable specification.

They can also burn jet fuel if they want.

That assumes there are no follow on orders for 93s/99s/their successors!

Eventually yes, but the railfreight industry is very skeptical of the idea that road decarbonisation can actually occur.
I don't think they will want to adapt until it is far too late, and just trust in their political clout to protect them until it can't any more.

They are businesses. Unlike with passenger vehicles, which is a purchase often made with emotion, the road freight (and road passenger) industry will ‘adapt’ as soon as the red line on the spreadsheet turns black. For some companies (eg Amazon) it’s already getting close to that point. It will certainly happen for the vast majority well before 2040.