When do Annual Station Passenger Usage figures come out?

[Y961 XBU]

I just been looking at some Wiki Pages and was looking at how well Stations do, I was wondering when the 2014/2015 Figures will come out?

 

[70014IronDuke]

I just been looking at some Wiki Pages and was looking at how well Stations do, I was wondering when the 2014/2015 Figures will come out?

IIRC, it was December last year.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

December, usually, at this site:
http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/published-stats/station-usage-estimates

 

[WatcherZero]

They were originally around May every year but they've been creeping forward by a bit recently. Next one is pencilled in for late December but not been given a firm date yet, last years was early December.

2014 December
2013 February
2012 May
2011 February
2010 February
2009 December
2008 March
2007 May
2006 May
2005 June
2003 (no 2004) August

 

[Y961 XBU]

Thanks for everyone's replies

 

[Stats]

Publication dates of ORR statistics are announced at http://orr.gov.uk/statistics/release-schedule. To comply with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics the date of release must be announced not less than 4 weeks before release.

Edit to add they can also be found on the gov.uk statistics release calendar at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/announcements?organisations[]=office-of-rail-and-road

 

[driver_m]

I guess with this we'll see if the Sparks effect still applies now that the chat moss is fully wired.

 

[thealexweb]

I guess with this we'll see if the Sparks effect still applies now that the chat moss is fully wired.

Isn't full Class 319 running only due to start from the December timetable change? For example, there are still few if any EMUs on the Warrington stoppers.

 

[northwichcat]

I guess with this we'll see if the Sparks effect still applies now that the chat moss is fully wired.

How are you going to work out if it is "sparks" when so many stations in the North West have been seeing exponential growth without the wires?

Wavertree Technology Park got annual usage of 342,000 in 2012/13 and 468,000 in 2013/14. If there's 25% growth at the station in it's first year of having wires that would be a significant reduction in the level of growth.

 

[AM9]

How are you going to work out if it is "sparks" when so many stations in the North West have been seeing exponential growth without the wires?

Wavertree Technology Park got annual usage of 342,000 in 2012/13 and 468,000 in 2013/14. If there's 25% growth at the station it's first year of having wires that would be a significant reduction in growth.

That would only be true if the 'exponential growth' (for reasons other than a sparks effect) is continuing this year. Growth described as 'exponential' is mostly a qualitative figure of speech rather than a mathematical fact. It can only realistically be described as exponential when figures over several years indicate such. For instance, Wavertree station passenger numbers actually went down from 362,000 in 2011/12 to 342,000 in 2012/13, and it is impossible to have an exponential growth curve with just two reference points.
Growth in passenger journeys can be influenced by capacity, fares cost and quality of service, and those are just railway specific. Then there are other factors like weather, competition from other modes,- e.g. bus service cost and reliability, road traffic congestion/improvements, and of course employment levels (which may be flattening out soon).
There will be a sparks effect on the NW electrified lines in terms of a faster coherent network of services with more capacity which I wouldn't try to quantify by cherry picking one particular station's figures over just 1 year.

 

[northwichcat]

For instance, Wavertree station passenger numbers actually went down from 362,000 in 2011/12 to 342,000 in 2012/13, and it is impossible to have an exponential growth curve with just two reference points.

The ORR accompanying notes for 12/13 mentioned a change in how journeys made on PTE tickets were recorded, so the 12/13 figures are officially seen as more reliable than the 11/12 ones.

There will be a sparks effect on the NW electrified lines in terms of a faster coherent network of services with more capacity which I wouldn't try to quantify by cherry picking one particular station's figures over just 1 year.

Indeed you wouldn't base the results on one station. However, in the case of stations served by Manchester Airport to Liverpool services (the first to switch to 319s) most intermediate stations between Liverpool and Manchester have seen significant growth in recent years.

The problem with any 'sparks' argument is if the growth continues you could get someone arguing the growth would have stopped or slowed if it wasn't for electrification. However, unless you ask new passengers why they started using the service and the primary response they give is directly related to electrification then you don't know.

As the SRA predicted no significant growth for Northern Rail routes in 2004 I don't think predicted figures can be trusted!

 

[AM9]

.... The problem with any 'sparks' argument is if the growth continues you could get someone arguing the growth would have stopped or slowed if it wasn't for electrification. However, unless you ask new passengers why they started using the service and the primary response they give is directly related to electrification then you don't know....

The problem there is that many (most in some cases) aren't particularly aware of their trains' method of propulsion. Until the timetable is adjusted to take the 75mph stock's slack out, they won't even see much reduction in journey times. There's also the issue this year of maintenance teething troubles, which Allerton will probably have ironed out by next year.
There's not to my knowledge been a lack of growth in any major electrification scheme since the '50s so I doubt that this will be the first. Just keep an eye on house prices along the line compared with similar areas not on those lines, - the most striking indicator of the attraction of electric services. In St Albans, the electrification of the BedPan services pushed house prices up between 20 and 30% in a couple of years, - regrettably before I moved here!

 

[northwichcat]

The problem there is that many (most in some cases) aren't particularly aware of their trains' method of propulsion. Until the timetable is adjusted to take the 75mph stock's slack out, they won't even see much reduction in journey times. There's also the issue this year of maintenance teething troubles, which Allerton will probably have ironed out by next year.

Punctuality should improve as a result of using 100mph capable EMUs as they are can more easily recover late running when running to a timetable drawn up for 75mph DMUs.

There's not to my knowledge been a lack of growth in any major electrification scheme since the '50s so I doubt that this will be the first.

Electrification is very expensive and wouldn't usually be carried out on lines which don't have potential for growth.

Just keep an eye on house prices along the line compared with similar areas not on those lines, - the most striking indicator of the attraction of electric services. In St Albans, the electrification of the BedPan services pushed house prices up between 20 and 30% in a couple of years, - regrettably before I moved here!

I'm not going to disagree that improved infrastructure can push up the value of houses. However, I think there's a number of points to consider here:

1. Did any extra services get introduced? OK electrification might make it easier to add in extra services but if you look at North TPE extra services have been added in ahead of electrification and more will be added in December 2017, again before electrification. If the infrastructure is not being used to it's full potential prior to electrification then electrification can be credited for achieving things which would have been possible without it.

2. How would property prices in St Albans have been affected if electrification hadn't occurred? Faster journeys to/from London will have made it more of a dormitory town pushing up house prices. However, there isn't enough information in your post to say the 20-30% increase should be accredited to electrification. Property prices nationally have gone up a lot over short period of times and have done that for a considerable amount of time.

3. What else occurred in and around St Albans around the time of electrification? Were there any new roads, new shopping developments etc.? Did standards become higher in local schools or did standards at schools in other towns drop?

My local station has seen usage increase by 67% over the last 5 years, despite there being no improvements in rolling stock, no more services, no journey time improvements or no electrification. The only noticeable change is more overcrowded trains! I'm sure if the line was electrified 5 years ago certain people would be saying look at what electrification has achieved, when in fact the increase usage is down to:
1. A major employer in the area increasing the amount of work done at a local site, in favour of reducing work at other sites
2. Withdrawal of subsided bus services including school buses
3. People being willing to travel further to work due to jobs not being as plentiful as they were
4. A nearby city becoming more popular for shopping and night life.

And as for property prices I live in what's been called one of the most expensive towns to live in, in the North of England, despite being under the flight path of a major Airport. Not everything is logical!

 

[driver_m]

How are you going to work out if it is "sparks" when so many stations in the North West have been seeing exponential growth without the wires?

Wavertree Technology Park got annual usage of 342,000 in 2012/13 and 468,000 in 2013/14. If there's 25% growth at the station in it's first year of having wires that would be a significant reduction in the level of growth.

Easy. Compare a couple of stations nearby but on different lines and see what the percent growth is. Plenty of adverts have been made for it across the region saying that theres electrics running on the line. compare Widnes and St Helens Jn or Newton Le Willows and Birchwood. Believe car parks on the routes are suddenly impossible to park on and causing trouble locally (St Helens Jn IIRC)

 

[adsteamfan]

You also have to factor in popular events such as the giant puppets and The Three Queens where people choose to let the train take the strain rather than sit in a queue for hours in a car.

 

[northwichcat]

Plenty of adverts have been made for it across the region saying that theres electrics running on the line.

Yes Northern keep tweeting that but the reality is most people probably don't care. Saying there's extra seats is more relevant but there aren't extra seats on all services operated by 319s as some are services which used to be 4 car Sprinters, especially those between Liverpool and Wigan.

compare Widnes and St Helens Jn or Newton Le Willows and Birchwood. Believe car parks on the routes are suddenly impossible to park on and causing trouble locally (St Helens Jn IIRC)

Not that reliable. What if there's been a lot of job losses in Warrington? The CLC line would be affected more by that than the Chat Moss line.

Just looking at some figures for a few lines I noticed that local stations between Crewe and Liverpool have seen quite a lot of growth since the Turbostar service between Liverpool and Stansted Airport was replaced by a Desiro service between Liverpool and Birmingham. However, the following is also worth noting:
1. Late running northbound trains from Stansted Airport were sometimes terminated at Crewe, putting some people off using the train.
2. The electric Desiros that were introduced were brand new and didn't lack any features that the Turbostars have.
3. There was significant growth in the first few years of using 350s but the total growth over the past ten years at those stations isn't that different to lines which still get 1980s diesels. Maybe new 350s and a service revision got people to switch to using the train sooner opposed to attracting people who wouldn't have ever switched to the train?
4. LM have introduced penalty fares so maybe some of the growth is actually less ticket-less travel?

 

[driver_m]

Yes Northern keep tweeting that but the reality is most people probably don't care. Saying there's extra seats is more relevant but there aren't extra seats on all services operated by 319s as some are services which used to be 4 car Sprinters, especially those between Liverpool and Wigan.



Not that reliable. What if there's been a lot of job losses in Warrington? The CLC line would be affected more by that than the Chat Moss line.

Just looking at some figures for a few lines I noticed that local stations between Crewe and Liverpool have seen quite a lot of growth since the Turbostar service between Liverpool and Stansted Airport was replaced by a Desiro service between Liverpool and Birmingham. However, the following is also worth noting:
1. Late running northbound trains from Stansted Airport were sometimes terminated at Crewe, putting some people off using the train.
2. The electric Desiros that were introduced were brand new and didn't lack any features that the Turbostars have.
3. There was significant growth in the first few years of using 350s but the total growth over the past ten years at those stations isn't that different to lines which still get 1980s diesels. Maybe new 350s and a service revision got people to switch to using the train sooner opposed to attracting people who wouldn't have ever switched to the train?
4. LM have introduced penalty fares so maybe some of the growth is actually less ticket-less travel?

The reality is that there were hardly any 4 car services running out of lime st. On weekends there was more likelihood of a 4 car. The old central service to lime st was a combo of 310, 323 and diesels. It wasn't ever exclusively diesel. Look all you want but you will find electric services even then. The stansted services weren't that unreliable either and services will still terminate at LSP with late running. The depot at Crewe cured most of the crewing troubles that the service used to have. Warrington has had huge employment growth and you've got the two huge cities at either end of those lines too. I picked those places because they're either near the motorway network or serve similar areas. None are likely to have less custom.

I know you downplay this 'sparks effect' judging by a large number of your recent posts but there is plenty of evidence and is accepted as fact by many if not all in the industry. I don't see the equivalent of Wolmar (with his anti-hs2 view) who is against the view of the Sparks effect.

 

[northwichcat]

It wasn't ever exclusively diesel. Look all you want but you will find electric services even then. The stansted services weren't that unreliable either and services will still terminate at LSP with late running.

You're missing the point here - the services which did serve Winsford, Hartford and Acton Bridge in the early noughties were the Stansted Airport services. While 323s did appear on the Liverpool to Birmingham only services they didn't appear on services which acted as 'stopping services' north of Crewe.

Services terminating short at Liverpool South Parkway would be far less problematic than services terminating short at Crewe. The latter left stations with no service for 2 hours, the former allows a connection with regular Liverpool to Liverpool South Parkway services and not everyone is travelling to Liverpool anyway.

The reality is that there were hardly any 4 car services running out of lime st.

Don't forget Central used 3 car 170s on the Liverpool to Stansted Airport services which are 70m in length, opposed to the 80m 350s so 4 cars isn't that much extra capacity, especially considering some of that space is taken up by an extra carriage connection.

Warrington has had huge employment growth

The situation I was describing was hypothetical as I don't have a glass ball so can't predict what may happen in the future which may affect passenger numbers.

I know you downplay this 'sparks effect' judging by a large number of your recent posts but there is plenty of evidence and is accepted as fact by many if not all in the industry. I don't see the equivalent of Wolmar (with his anti-hs2 view) who is against the view of the Sparks effect.

The only time I've ever heard about anyone talking about electrification sparks effect is on rail forums. Typing "electrification sparks" in to Google brings up a whole load of enthusiasts sites and forums on the 1st page and a small number of media articles further down, mainly when they've spoken to a local RUG opposed to an official body. The electrification sparks growth claim on Wikipedia is referenced to an enthusiast's blog which no longer exists!

On the other hand if I type in "electrification environment" in to Google I get a load of results from official bodies like Network Rail, ATOC, Transport Scotland etc. near the top.

So obviously the people making the electrification decisions are selling in the environmental benefits and not constantly going on about a sparks effect. You're arguing no-one of importance is dismissing the sparks effect, maybe it's because no one of importance is arguing that a sparks effect exists in the first place.

Just to be clear I am saying that lines without potential for growth wouldn't usually get electrified in the first place as the business case for electrification would be too poor, so electrification can be an aid to help lines achieve their growth potential but just putting up wires and keeping the same timetable and service frequency won't achieve much to attract passengers, even if reduces pollution.

 

[driver_m]

I'll give in to your superior knowledge of the railway and admit that I'm completely wrong in what I'm saying. I'll pretend I haven't ever read about what happened with the cross city line in Brum, the West Yorks electrification, the Scottish schemes, Norwich etc. I'll pretend I've never seen the various in house rail publications which refer to it, the likes of Modern Railways, (because Roger Ford knows nothing, right?)

Probably best if we leave it here, because we aren't going to change our respective positions are we?

 

[AM9]

Punctuality should improve as a result of using 100mph capable EMUs as they are can more easily recover late running when running to a timetable drawn up for 75mph DMUs.

That would be a slight improvement but passengers would still get a bit tired of trains sitting at stations waiting for time to catch up, and moreso waiting for other non-accelerated services to clear junctions, (think of the junctions between Castlefields and Ordsall - I don't know their railway names).

Electrification is very expensive and wouldn't usually be carried out on lines which don't have potential for growth.

That's why they usually promote growth, and the electrification of those lines in the NW will probably do the same.

I'm not going to disagree that improved infrastructure can push up the value of houses. However, I think there's a number of points to consider here:

1. Did any extra services get introduced? OK electrification might make it easier to add in extra services but if you look at North TPE extra services have been added in ahead of electrification and more will be added in December 2017, again before electrification. If the infrastructure is not being used to it's full potential prior to electrification then electrification can be credited for achieving things which would have been possible without it.

2. How would property prices in St Albans have been affected if electrification hadn't occurred? Faster journeys to/from London will have made it more of a dormitory town pushing up house prices. However, there isn't enough information in your post to say the 20-30% increase should be accredited to electrification. Property prices nationally have gone up a lot over short period of times and have done that for a considerable amount of time.

Before electrification, outer suburban services on the MML were operated with class 127 DMUs which had mediocre acceleration and a 70mph top speed. The electric service with class317s started (eventually) in 1983 which is when most of the price rises took place. That 20% rise was relative to adjacent towns of similar size, (except Harpenden which had a similar price history to St Albans). The NW electrification will similarly benefit places 20-30 miles from the centres of employment like Liverpool and Manchester which currently, are unpredictably served by the jumble of 142s, 150s and 156s. In addition, more than with the MML, there will be new practical commutes across the area to places like like Wigan, Bolton and Preston.

3. What else occurred in and around St Albans around the time of electrification? Were there any new roads, new shopping developments etc.? Did standards become higher in local schools or did standards at schools in other towns drop?

Although I didn't live here until the early '90s, (thereby having to pay top dollar for my house), I don't think that much that would influence house prices happened here in the early to mid eighties. The M1 and A1M routes were built in the '50s & '60s, the bit of the M25 between J21 & J22 (the two St Albans accesses) was completed in the late '80s, Brent Cross was opened in the late '50s. School standards in St Albans have always been a draw, way back to WWII. The comparison is between the WCML route which was electrified in the '60s and the ECML which was in the '70s. They had their uplifts in demand for housing then, the towns on the MML was until electrification behind the curve.

My local station has seen usage increase by 67% over the last 5 years, despite there being no improvements in rolling stock, no more services, no journey time improvements or no electrification. The only noticeable change is more overcrowded trains! I'm sure if the line was electrified 5 years ago certain people would be saying look at what electrification has achieved, when in fact the increase usage is down to:
1. A major employer in the area increasing the amount of work done at a local site, in favour of reducing work at other sites
2. Withdrawal of subsided bus services including school buses
3. People being willing to travel further to work due to jobs not being as plentiful as they were
4. A nearby city becoming more popular for shopping and night life.

And as for property prices I live in what's been called one of the most expensive towns to live in, in the North of England, despite being under the flight path of a major Airport. Not everything is logical!

We are now living in a period of short-term growth, (reports this week indicate that trend to be flattening off), so recent figures are difficult to understand. In practice, the sparks effect can be very local so a comparison must be made with equivalent areas nearby that don't have the same rail infrastructure.

 

[northwichcat]

Roger Ford said 3 or 4 years ago that growth was flatenning off and there was 1 year when that was true but then the growth accelerated again. Most North West stations have seen more than a little growth in 9 out of the past 10 years.

 

[AM9]

Roger Ford said 3 or 4 years ago that growth was flatenning off and there was 1 year when that was true but then the growth accelerated again. Most North West stations have seen more than a little growth in 9 out of the past 10 years.

Maybe by some geographical anomaly, growth in the North-West triangle runs different to most other areas in the UK but all of the major electrification schemes I have seen in the last 50 years have resulted in increased economic activity in the centres that the lines serve. That even applied to the South-East Hants infill around 1990 (Portsmouth to Southampton and Eastleigh) where better trains running more reliably with more capacity, (class 421s &423s) replaced inadequate class 205s &206s.
I think that the main reason is that electrifying a railway shows a certain amount of commitment to the future of the line. It's far too expensive electrify when the intent is to abandon in a few years whereas running DMUs can often appear to be a stop gap before line closure. Even with modern units, they can be uprooted at short notice, as Northern has found recently. It's that feeling that the transport service will be in place for the long term that gives employers the confidence to set up shop. That confidence also rubs off on home buyers so the sparks effect becomes a reality.

 

[WatcherZero]

Im not sure, possibly a sign of commitment, I think to me its a sign of modernity. People feel travelling on diesels or buses isn't very aspirational however electric rolling stock is modern and aspirational to commute on.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

St Albans has always been a desirable place to live - even the DMU service served it quite well - but the impact of the Bedpan line wiring made a step change from a "mixed" economy to a commuter based hegemony - local manufactering has more or less gone and the much vaunted 20 mins to London , along with good local environment , pubs , market history etc has made it a commuter hot spot par excellence.

The levels of house prices is ridiculous really - spurred on by transport largely - and a modest 3 bedroom semi in a 1930's area like where I live now goes for around £800K
and is really indicative of the fact that even standing on a 319 / 387 is the norm for every peak service. In 1989 when I first moved there - there was really not much (if any) standing on high peak services - even on the 4 tpd to St Pancras (old) station - whereas now the crush is akin to the Northern Line from (say) Hendon Central. Probably what people are trying to avoid.

 

[WatcherZero]

Now dated as the 15th of December.