What will replace Pacers?

[Chris125]

I said current AT THE TIME... Not current NOW. They are totally different things. We're talking 7 years from now, so could theoretically be ordered by 2016/7

There are no compliant designs, it's doubtful whether one would be viable if there was, and the ROSCO's are unlikely to be interested anyway. Realistically the only way to withdraw Pacers will be further electrification in CP6.

Chris

 

[tbtc]

Well it's good to know that you know of many Sheffield area services that where 80 seater complaint Pacers can be used, given that there's very few peak time services in the Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds areas where even a pair of 80 seater Pacers would be adequate, given that that's only slightly more seats than a single 156 has currently.

Sheffield generally sees just one doubled up (i.e. four coach) Pacer diagram a day (on the Scunthorpe - Lincoln - Adwick service which also sees a single 153 on another duty) - a five coach Pacer would be overkill as I've said.

Most peak services in Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds are going to be in the hands of EMUs or Sprinters by the end of the decade anyway.

I know that people want the answer to be "lets order lots of three coach 172s" but it'd be hard to justify.
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There are no compliant designs, it's doubtful whether one would be viable if there was, and the ROSCO's are unlikely to be interested anyway. Realistically the only way to withdraw Pacers will be further electrification in CP6.

Chris

I reckon we could "save" seventy/ eighty Pacers in CP5 (the main area being the Valley Lines) with the rest being "saved" in CP6 if the logical "next steps" see wires following on from CP5 - after which there'll be a lot less need for 75mph DMUs.

This is why I think we'll see a temporary exemption for a few years to keep Pacers on the rails into CP6.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I wonder how this matter is viewed by those involved in rail transport planning in those more affluent countries of Europe ?

 

[LE Greys]

Of course, a big problem with cascades (185>170>158>156>150>Pacer or whatever) is that we end up with unsuitable stock on local routes. It happens already, with 158s on the Far North for instance, where they cannot reach 90mph and IMO are a step down in comfort from the 156s they replaced. While some Pacer routes (Leeds-Morecambe or Carlisle-Newcastle) would suit 156s perfectly, the much more typical short runs around the West Riding, let alone the Harrogate Line, would not be so suitable because of problems with the door layout.
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Sheffield generally sees just one doubled up (i.e. four coach) Pacer diagram a day (on the Scunthorpe - Lincoln - Adwick service which also sees a single 153 on another duty) - a five coach Pacer would be overkill as I've said.

Most peak services in Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds are going to be in the hands of EMUs or Sprinters by the end of the decade anyway.

I know that people want the answer to be "lets order lots of three coach 172s" but it'd be hard to justify.

And that's the exact problem with ROSCOs, they have no interest in increasing ridership or investing in new stock when they can still make money out of older stock. I've often wondered if 2-car (or even single-car) 172s might be a good idea.

 

[northwichcat]

Most peak services in Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds are going to be in the hands of EMUs or Sprinters by the end of the decade anyway.

The Buxton, Mid-Cheshire, Liverpool-Manchester via Warrington and both Southport lines have Northern services which need >160 seats without any further passenger growth. (I know Pacers can't go to Buxton but it's a line where a 2 car DMU is not sufficient at peak times.)

Around 45 minutes ago I saw a 2 car Pacer depart Knutsford with around 170 on board. How would that work if it only had 80 seats? Maybe leave 40 on the platform?

 

[David Goddard]

With regards to the big cascade, the number of sets (more than) adds up, the problem (as others have said) is suitability of cascaded stock on their new routes.

For example- Thameslink will release 86 Class 319s, while Crossrail will release in the region of fifty Class 165/166, plus a quantity of Class 315s.

Clearly these will be used to increase services as well as cascade, so at each stage the number of units dropping down reduces.

This puts enough units in at the top of the cascade, but the challenge will be what goes on the services run by Pacers at present.

 

[30mog]

Did a round trip today - Chesterfield to Crewe - outward changing at Derby, return changing at Stockport & Sheffield. Travelled on 2 Meridians/Voyagers, a 170, a 153 and a 175. The last of which was the best in terms of comfort. The 153, well, would rather have had it for the last 12 minute leg coming home. Going Derby to Crewe, lack of legroom meant I was almost sat sideways and couldn't wait to get off. And I am nowhere near 6ft4!

Anyway, I had a crazy idea whist aboard the 175. How much would one of these or similar new build cost? I thought. How many rail lovers in the country? I thought. What if we all chipped in £100? I thought. And just what is the monetary value of all the work volunteers contribute to preserving yesterday's rolling stock? I thought. And with regard to the last thought. If public donations built Tornado. Could public 'donations' build a modern rail vehicle. Which we could lease to a TOC, get our money back over time, and, perhaps allow a Sprinter to cascade to replace a Pacer?

 

[anthony263]

Did a round trip today - Chesterfield to Crewe - outward changing at Derby, return changing at Stockport & Sheffield. Travelled on 2 Meridians/Voyagers, a 170, a 153 and a 175. The last of which was the best in terms of comfort. The 153, well, would rather have had it for the last 12 minute leg coming home. Going Derby to Crewe, lack of legroom meant I was almost sat sideways and couldn't wait to get off. And I am nowhere near 6ft4!

Anyway, I had a crazy idea whist aboard the 175. How much would one of these or similar new build cost? I thought. How many rail lovers in the country? I thought. What if we all chipped in £100? I thought. And just what is the monetary value of all the work volunteers contribute to preserving yesterday's rolling stock? I thought. And with regard to the last thought. If public donations built Tornado. Could public 'donations' build a modern rail vehicle. Which we could lease to a TOC, get our money back over time, and, perhaps allow a Sprinter to cascade to replace a Pacer?

A class 175 if new examples could be built would be quite expensive and perhaps more expensive than a turbostar.

That said the 175's and class 180's are the most comfortable to travel on out of all the dmu's built after privatisation. Its a shame that like the 458's their had such poor reliability when they were first introduced and although the class 175's and 458's reliability has very much improved the 180's are still having their problems.

Another problem with the 175's is they lack of gangways. Its a pity Alstom cant design a new cab which is equiped with a gangway and reaplced the existing cab's on the 175's although I dread to think about the amount of red tape the ROSCO's etc will have to go through to get such an idea authorised.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Sheffield generally sees just one doubled up (i.e. four coach) Pacer diagram a day (on the Scunthorpe - Lincoln - Adwick service which also sees a single 153 on another duty) - a five coach Pacer would be overkill as I've said.

Most peak services in Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds are going to be in the hands of EMUs or Sprinters by the end of the decade anyway.

I know that people want the answer to be "lets order lots of three coach 172s" but it'd be hard to justify.
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I reckon we could "save" seventy/ eighty Pacers in CP5 (the main area being the Valley Lines) with the rest being "saved" in CP6 if the logical "next steps" see wires following on from CP5 - after which there'll be a lot less need for 75mph DMUs.

This is why I think we'll see a temporary exemption for a few years to keep Pacers on the rails into CP6.

Unfortunately were not going to flush Pacers out the system courtesy of electrification cascades and cater for existing demand/modest 1-2% per annum growth. There's going to be a gap which will need to be filled. DfT
are saying again its up to franchise bidders on rolling stock but its clear a central cascade plan is needed which will have to be cross franchise. Fudging around at franchise start dates is not good enough.

• Will ScotRail release any 158/170 units south?
• How many 150/153 units will Wales and Border hang onto after Valleys electrification, just enough as today for Pembroke Dock, Heart of Wales, Wrexham/Bidston,Conway Valley or extras to cater for growth?
• Will Turbo cascade be adequate for West of England?

 

[LE Greys]

Unfortunately were not going to flush Pacers out the system courtesy of electrification cascades and cater for existing demand/modest 1-2% per annum growth. There's going to be a gap which will need to be filled. DfT are saying again its up to franchise bidders on rolling stock but its clear a central cascade plan is needed which will have to be cross franchise. Fudging around at franchise start dates is not good enough.

Unfortunately, that's probably true

• Will ScotRail release any 158/170 units south?

• 
  
  Maybe, I hope it's mostly 158s, mind you last time they tried to get shot of them the Scottish Executive (as was) demanded that they hang onto them because they had not spent good money making the air-con work so that the English could get the benefit. The question really is 'Will Scotrail send some 156s to Inverness?' (since 170s on the Far North would be even more out of place than 158s). Moving the 170s to a new depot at Perth, Stirling or Aberdeen might work as well.
  
  

  [*]How many 150/153 units will Wales and Border hang onto after Valleys electrification, just enough as today for Pembroke Dock, Heart of Wales, Wrexham/Bidston,Conway Valley or extras to cater for growth?

  
  Chances are they'll try to offload one class or the other, to simplify matters a bit.
  
  

  [*]Will Turbo cascade be adequate for West of England?

That depends strongly on what they do with them. Just using them as a Pacer/Sprinter replacement would be decidedly uncomfortable for long runs such as the Heart of Wessex, which might justify a 158 for the short main line sections. What they really need is a batch of extra 158s, perhaps the Scotrail ones, to suppliment the Turbos on longer runs.

 

[WatcherZero]

Last I heard Scotrail did aspire to phase out Sprinters for more modern classes in a big rolling stock musical chairs game im sure they would be open to swapping 15x for 17x (despite higher leasing fees) and im sure Northern would be happy to acquire some of their 15x to help with the Pacer problem.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Most peak services in Liverpool, Manchester and Leeds are going to be in the hands of EMUs or Sprinters by the end of the decade anyway.

What do you think the Calder Valley services and those services from Manchester that will run via the Todmorden Chord from 2014 onwards to Accrington/Blackburn will have as their rolling stock by the end of the decade ?

 

[tbtc]

The Buxton, Mid-Cheshire, Liverpool-Manchester via Warrington and both Southport lines have Northern services which need >160 seats without any further passenger growth. (I know Pacers can't go to Buxton but it's a line where a 2 car DMU is not sufficient at peak times.

There are going to be 150s and 156s freed up by electrification that could be used on the lines that you suggest - it's not "Pacers or nothing"

Around 45 minutes ago I saw a 2 car Pacer depart Knutsford with around 170 on board. How would that work if it only had 80 seats? Maybe leave 40 on the platform?

You've said on another thread that this was due to the crowd at an annual fair (the one that George Osbourne tweeted the "clown" picture of, presumably?) - a known event on a Bank Holiday when there would have been spare stock (which Northern didn't use).

That's surely not the kind of basis to make long term plans around - equally I could suggest that we need eight coach trains on the Penistone line due to the number of Barnsley supporters who travelled through to watch their team play at Huddersfield on Saturday, but that wouldn't justify that level of service every day of the year for similar reasons.

Will ScotRail release any 158/170 units south?

Once Dunblane/ Alloa are done (later this decade) ScotRail should have freed up around fifty DMUs (the main Glasgow - Edinburgh "shuttle" needs sixteen 170s at peak hours - the combined Glasgow/Edinburgh - Stirling services require a similar number, plus there's the "southside" and "suburban" stuff around Glasgow like Cumbernauld, East Kilbride that should take the number to around fifty).

There'll be a desire to keep some of the spare capacity in Scotland - understandable - either to increase capacity/ introduce new services/ get rid of the loco-haulage on the Fife Circle - but even if no new DMUs are ordered that should free up dozens of Sprinters to England and Wales.

Will Turbo cascade be adequate for West of England?

The North Downs route should need ten 165/166s (I think it's eight units plus one peak extra plus one for maintenance) and one for the Greenford shuttle, but apart from that almost fifty 165/166s could be freed up by the end of the decade - quite a lot when you consider there are only eight Pacers left with FGW.

Whether they all fit on current 143/150 operated lines is another story I suppose.

What do you think the Calder Valley services and those services from Manchester that will run via the Todmorden Chord from 2014 onwards to Accrington/Blackburn will have as their rolling stock by the end of the decade ?

Probably something similar to the mix of Sprinters today (155/ 158) plus some freed up 185s from Transpennine electrification?

Manchester - Blackburn is almost exclusively Sprinter operated at the moment (used to be 100%).

 

[northwichcat]

You've said on another thread that this was due to the crowd at an annual fair (the one that George Osbourne tweeted the "clown" picture of, presumably?) - a known event on a Bank Holiday when there would have been spare stock (which Northern didn't use).

On a weekday that service can load 140-150 on leaving Knutsford as it's well used by commuters who work at Barclays' Radbrooke Hall site so it wasn't a huge increase on the usual weekday loading.

Not sure about the 'spare stock' on a Bank Holiday given Northern ran a normal Monday service apart from any cancelled services, unless they ran some usually strengthened services as 2 car. However, the Buxton line and Bolton corridors seemed to get their usual 4 car workings even though I noted EMT used 2 car 158s on Liverpool-Nottingham services usually operated by 4 car 158s.

There are going to be 150s and 156s freed up by electrification that could be used on the lines that you suggest - it's not "Pacers or nothing"

You've not said anywhere where you think complaint Pacers (with a lower capacity than at present) could be used without requiring them to be doubled up. I've suggested some of the routes where single 153s currently operate but there's not that many of them. And like I've said if you're going to run Pacers doubled up most of the time than the cheaper running costs compared to newer 3 car DMUs no longer remains a valid argument.

 

[The Ham]

Some other easy DMU cascades could include:

• split working 222's in Cornwall with direct services between Newquay & London (only one train, but every little helps)
• Electrfy the lines between Salisbury and Southampton

The line from Southampton to Salisbury has had works done to clear it for larger gauge trains as a diversionary route for freight and in doing so has also likely been provided with enough clearance to put up overhead wires, making it a fairly cheap route to electrify.

 

[Chris125]

The North Downs route should need ten 165/166s (I think it's eight units plus one peak extra plus one for maintenance) and one for the Greenford shuttle, but apart from that almost fifty 165/166s could be freed up by the end of the decade - quite a lot when you consider there are only eight Pacers left with FGW.

Whether they all fit on current 143/150 operated lines is another story I suppose.

Interestingly NR's Overarching Enhancement Plan actually appears to show the 165/166 fleet predominantly cascading 158's, with gauge clearance to be carried out between Cardiff and Penzance, Bristol to Portsmouth, Westbury to Weymouth, Bristol to Worcester, Bristol to Severn Beach, Swindon to Gloucester and Swindon to Westbury.

Chris

 

[Surreyman]

The North Downs route should need ten 165/166s (I think it's eight units plus one peak extra plus one for maintenance) and one for the Greenford shuttle, but apart from that almost fifty 165/166s could be freed up by the end of the decade - quite a lot when you consider there are only eight Pacers left with FGW.

Whether they all fit on current 143/150 operated lines is another story I suppose.

Might they need a couple more for Bedwyn - Newbury?

 

[YorkshireBear]

While we can discuss/argue this at great length. Surely somewhere in industry someone already knows this? Has a plan of what is going to happen...
The new round of TOCs need to know what is going to happen.

 

[anthony263]

The North Downs route should need ten 165/166s (I think it's eight units plus one peak extra plus one for maintenance) and one for the Greenford shuttle, but apart from that almost fifty 165/166s could be freed up by the end of the decade - quite a lot when you consider there are only eight Pacers left with FGW.

Whether they all fit on current 143/150 operated lines is another story I suppose.

Might they need a couple more for Bedwyn - Newbury?

Well if FGW reform the Majority of their 158's back into two carriage units that should give a good number of 158's for other operators although I suspect FGW will be fighting to keep hold of some maybe copying EMT and having pairs of 158's work the busiest services on the Cardiff - Portsmouth Harbour route.

ATW will be pushing for some 158's for the cambrian and I suspect for the Cardiff - Cheltenham route

 

[northwichcat]

If you want to do righteous indignation then the Act you should be talking about is this one - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equality_Act_2010 (it replaced the DDA)

Well DDA is one of a few acts merged in to the Equality Act. If we start talking about just the Equality Act in relation to accessible travel then you need to specifically refer to Part 12 Disabled persons: transport. Otherwise there's all sorts of other conditions in there which a train operator has to comply with relating to employing staff, how they treat passengers etc.
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but apart from that almost fifty 165/166s could be freed up by the end of the decade - quite a lot when you consider there are only eight Pacers left with FGW.

Now when I said that a while back I was told Thames Valley electrification only covers some of the current class 165/6 routes so while they will allow the 143s and 158s at FGW to be freed up, there won't be a lot of other units left over for other services.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

With reference to Porterbrook's proposal for making 143/144s compliant with DDA legislation, does anyone happen to know if any of the vehicles from the two 143s that have cooked themselves are still in existence? As if so this could presumably be used as a test bed for the proposal.

 

[northwichcat]

One thing that I don't think has been mentioned is the 143s and 144s do not use a Leyland bus body. With the Leyland bus bodied 153s apparently having sagging issues, maybe any life extension work on the Leyland bus bodied 142s or 155s could be seen as a non-viable option without even taking the other Pacer complaince issues in to consideration?