What is Going To Happen To The HSTs?

[Envoy]

2017 will see the start of FGW HSTs being withdrawn from service. Does anyone know what will happen to these trains? Will they go to strengthen the Cross Country fleet, be sold abroad, be stored and brought out to cover special events such as football matches or simply scrapped?

 

[Bletchleyite]

2017 will see the start of FGW HST's being withdrawn from service. Does anyone know what will happen to these trains? Will they go to strengthen the Cross Country fleet, be sold abroad, be stored and brought out to cover special events such as football matches or simply scrapped?

ScotRail will be having a large number of them.

Neil

 

[jopsuk]

27 will be heavily refurbished, shortened and used by Scotrail. Quite a few sets are being kept on at Great Western for Plymouth & Penzance services. A couple are likely to be bought for preservation. The rest will be scrapped, as is quite normal for forty year old life expired trains.

 

[47802]

I would have thought it would have been difficult to miss the fact that 27 sets are intended to go to Scotland, around 20 sets maybe retained for the South West which takes care of the majority of FGW sets.

Midland sets are unlikely to be released until electrification gets to Nottingham when ever that will be.

East coast sets are not due to be released until 2018 but there is some suggestion that might be brought forward if GW electrification is significantly delayed.

I suspect we will have to wait until the next XC franchise to see what's happening there.

Possibly a few might be scrapped within the next 5 years but probably not many.

 

[Murph]

The rest will be scrapped, as is quite normal for forty year old life expired trains.

They are quite clearly not generally "life expired" yet, with the ScotRail bid hanging at least another 10-ish years onto them. The prime movers are all relatively young. In service, as long as they are being properly maintained, they are currently providing the same world-class reliable service that they have always provided.

If the ROSCOs have any sense, they will be in no hurry to scrap any HST vehicles before structural fatigue and corrosion reaches the point where it's no longer economic to maintain them. If the ScotRail usage proves to be successful, with reasonable refurbishment and maintenance costs, other TOCs and open access operators could end up pulling more of them back into service on secondary routes. Clearly, they are only suited to relatively long distance between stops, not short-hop metro type usage. An enterprising ROSCO might even come up with an option to drop a transformer and pantograph into the van space.

I see them going into secure storage for quite a while before any major scrapping. Anything else is madness to me, with the nation being in a relatively poor financial state for quite a few years looking forwards, we simply can't afford to be scrapping useful rolling stock prematurely. Obviously any individual vehicles which have major structural issues might end up getting scrapped earlier.

 

[al.currie93]

They are quite clearly not generally "life expired" yet, with the ScotRail bid hanging at least another 10-ish years onto them. The prime movers are all relatively young. In service, as long as they are being properly maintained, they are currently providing the same world-class reliable service that they have always provided.

If the ROSCOs have any sense, they will be in no hurry to scrap any HST vehicles before structural fatigue and corrosion reaches the point where it's no longer economic to maintain them. If the ScotRail usage proves to be successful, with reasonable refurbishment and maintenance costs, other TOCs and open access operators could end up pulling more of them back into service on secondary routes. Clearly, they are only suited to relatively long distance between stops, not short-hop metro type usage. An enterprising ROSCO might even come up with an option to drop a transformer and pantograph into the van space.

I see them going into secure storage for quite a while before any major scrapping. Anything else is madness to me, with the nation being in a relatively poor financial state for quite a few years looking forwards, we simply can't afford to be scrapping useful rolling stock prematurely. Obviously any individual vehicles which have major structural issues might end up getting scrapped earlier.

Agreed... enough said! Especially gven that almost half of the class 43s are destined to remain for a good while at least!

 

[47802]

I think remains to be seen as to how much HST's are used on other secondary routes beyond Scotrail services, given the likely extra cost compared a sprinter based unit.

Just because they are going to Scotrail doesn't automatically mean we will see them cascaded onto other routes.

 

[SF-02]

Surely a lot of scope for improving cross country with them?

Keeping hold of them makes sense but I have little faith in a UK govt of any colour not putting the taxpayer on the hook for PFI contracts, under lobbying, by buying new stock even if life left in HSTs.

 

[Murph]

I think remains to be seen as to how much HST's are used on other secondary routes beyond Scotrail services, given the likely extra cost compared a sprinter based unit.

Just because they are going to Scotrail doesn't automatically mean we will see them cascaded onto other routes.

Yup, that's reasonable and true. What the ScotRail case will do, is prove the viability, reliability, quality, feasibility, costings, etc to other operators.

To me, the obvious case where a TOC should be considering replacing Sprinters with a HST is one where the existing service is frequently overcrowded due to insufficient Sprinter stock being available to put on longer trains (assuming that route, platform lengths, etc are suitable for a longer HST). They could be an opportunity to grow business and/or satisfaction by offering better facilities, higher quality service, etc. The Sprinters released by that could in turn be used to lengthen other services or increase frequency, etc.

 

[ainsworth74]

Some will go to ScotRail (and we'll wait and see how that works out), a few more will be kept at least for a short while on Plymouth/Penzance, a few will end up in preservation/charter services and the rest:

I think people may need to start coming to terms with this.

 

[Saint66]

Some will go to ScotRail (and we'll wait and see how that works out), a few more will be kept at least for a short while on Plymouth/Penzance, a few will end up in preservation/charter services and the rest:

I think people may need to start coming to terms with this.

But the truth hurts!

 

[class26]

Yup, that's reasonable and true. What the ScotRail case will do, is prove the viability, reliability, quality, feasibility, costings, etc to other operators.

To me, the obvious case where a TOC should be considering replacing Sprinters with a HST is one where the existing service is frequently overcrowded due to insufficient Sprinter stock being available to put on longer trains (assuming that route, platform lengths, etc are suitable for a longer HST). They could be an opportunity to grow business and/or satisfaction by offering better facilities, higher quality service, etc. The Sprinters released by that could in turn be used to lengthen other services or increase frequency, etc.

There is an article in January`s MODERN RAILWAYS about DMU cascades and ultimate getting rid of the hated Pacers after electrification or rather how this will be delayed. Roger Ford hints how the railway has always come up with a stop gap solution like the Deltics and then later the HST itself but concludes that the only thing we can look at for additional DMU`s in the case of delayed electrification is converted tube stock. He refers to the Scottish use of HST`s but overlooks the fact that once IEP is with us there should be plenty of HST`s available to allow a cascade of DMU`s further down the line.
Lets hope !

 

[edwin_m]

There is an article in January`s MODERN RAILWAYS about DMU cascades and ultimate getting rid of the hated Pacers after electrification or rather how this will be delayed. Roger Ford hints how the railway has always come up with a stop gap solution like the Deltics and then later the HST itself but concludes that the only thing we can look at for additional DMU`s in the case of delayed electrification is converted tube stock. He refers to the Scottish use of HST`s but overlooks the fact that once IEP is with us there should be plenty of HST`s available to allow a cascade of DMU`s further down the line.
Lets hope !

As I understand it, the Scottish HSTs are the part of the GW fleet that is displaced by IEP. The East Coast and EMT HST fleets will be displaced a couple of years later but I think those two put together are smaller than the transfer to Scotrail.

We don't have a shortage of long-distance diesel trains, and even the opportunities to displace 170s off "semi-intercity" roles are pretty limited once this has happened in Scotland. Giving some more trains to XC to displace some of their 170 fleet is about the sum of it, and that could equally be 222s off MML.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

27 will be heavily refurbished, shortened and used by Scotrail. Quite a few sets are being kept on at Great Western for Plymouth & Penzance services. A couple are likely to be bought for preservation. The rest will be scrapped, as is quite normal for forty year old life expired trains.

I had assumed that the part of your posting that I have emboldened was the "standard network specification" for any elderly units unbeloved by their own TOC to be cascaded to Northern Rail...

 

[59CosG95]

We don't have a shortage of long-distance diesel trains, and even the opportunities to displace 170s off "semi-intercity" roles are pretty limited once this has happened in Scotland. Giving some more trains to XC to displace some of their 170 fleet is about the sum of it, and that could equally be 222s off MML.

I say displace all the 170s using shortened HST sets, and give the 170s to Northern. Boy do they need them! Granted the accel. won't be nearly as good on Cardiff-Notts and Brum-Stansted trains, but the peaktime crowds will hopefully just disappear. Gauge testing of course needs to be done for the Brum-airport route too.

 

[Train wasp]

With any luck a few sets will end up on the Waterloo Exeter service. I also wonder if West Coast Railways will be in the market for a one or two sets for rail tours.

 

[ainsworth74]

With any luck a few sets will end up on the Waterloo Exeter service.

That'll make all the portion working interesting...

 

[swt_passenger]

That'll make all the portion working interesting...

I dare say the capacity reduction over a 10 car 158/159 combination won't be too welcome either.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

With any luck a few sets will end up on the Waterloo Exeter service.

I think SWT would more likely go for over a build of IEPs rather then HSTs (btw how much space would the 3rd rail equipment take up on an IEP for conversion to bi-voltage?)

 

[Chris125]

I think remains to be seen as to how much HST's are used on other secondary routes beyond Scotrail services, given the likely extra cost compared a sprinter based unit.

The extra operating costs should be mitigated to some extent by the lower leasing costs of trains which would otherwise be scrapped.

The obvious candidate must be the Wales & Borders franchise which was mentioned as a possibility some time back - shortened HSTs would eliminate the need for the small loco-hauled fleet and free up at least some of the 175 fleet while increasing capacity and giving local politicians the Intercity-style rolling stock they seem so keen on.

Chris

 

[swt_passenger]

I think SWT would more likely go for over a build of IEPs rather then HSTs (btw how much space would the 3rd rail equipment take up on an IEP for conversion to bi-voltage?)

Negligible space. We keep explaining that apart from a few extra cables, and the shoe gear hanging off the bogies, all the necessary equipment is already there for the AC traction system.

 

[tbtc]

What?

We're on to the second page and nobody has suggested putting 442s between the power cars?

Some will go to ScotRail (and we'll wait and see how that works out), a few more will be kept at least for a short while on Plymouth/Penzance, a few will end up in preservation/charter services and the rest:

I think people may need to start coming to terms with this.

As usual, you've summed it up rather well - we need to accept that most of the ideas people have for HSTs post 2020 are in the "solutions in need of a problem" camp

I had assumed that the part of your posting that I have emboldened was the "standard network specification" for any elderly units unbeloved by their own TOC to be cascaded to Northern Rail...

I know it's Panto season, but do we have to do this on every thread?

We don't have a shortage of long-distance diesel trains, and even the opportunities to displace 170s off "semi-intercity" roles are pretty limited once this has happened in Scotland. Giving some more trains to XC to displace some of their 170 fleet is about the sum of it, and that could equally be 222s off MML.

Agreed.

The focus on building 100mph + trains over the past fifteen years (rather than "75mph" ones suited to local routes) means that we have almost got too many fast diesel trains (hence 100mph units doing "local" journeys like Birmingham - Rugely)...

...and we will see more "fast" DMUs freed up in the next few years than "slow" DMUs since CP5 electrification is more about doing main lines - GWML, MML, Transpennine - rather than branches and secondary routes (am confident that CP6 will deal with the secondary stuff).

So, routes for HSTs become hard to fine (bearing in mind that HSTs can't deal with portion working, can't be doubled up for busier journeys, the power cars add extra length that's not always simple to deal with...).

If we want to upgrade some lines to faster longer-distance trains then we'll have a fair few 170s, 185s, 222s etc in the next few years.

Anyhow, time to get the popcorn out and wait for the first person to suggest the S&C

 

[Darandio]

Anyhow, time to get the popcorn out and wait for the first person to suggest the S&C

You might be onto something. Remove/modify the roof and turn them into Mk3 dome cars?

 

[ac6000cw]

Some will go to ScotRail (and we'll wait and see how that works out), a few more will be kept at least for a short while on Plymouth/Penzance, a few will end up in preservation/charter services and the rest:

I think people may need to start coming to terms with this.

I agree - RIP (in the nicest possible way !).

They are only pieces of machinery after all - no point in getting too sentimental about them (and I say that as someone who does engineering design for living).

 

[Murph]

You might be onto something. Remove/modify the roof and turn them into Mk3 dome cars?

The roof is very structural on them, due to the monocoque design. Cutting it off or cutting any large holes into it means you are required to scrap the structural engineering design for the entire vehicle and have to start over. You certainly lose the existing safety case for their use, and any grandfather rights to run them, even if you can find a way to stop them folding up in the middle. The arched & ribbed nature of the roof likely makes it a very significant part of the structure, providing a large amount of the total strength of the vehicle.

The structural engineering of the mark 3 design requires that it be largely unmodified from original build in terms of the entire body. You can plate over holes ok, cut holes where the original design allows them to be cut, cut small holes most places, etc, but major mods mean starting from scratch on the structure to figure out how to restore the integrity.

Unless BREL somehow allowed for a scenic roof in the original design (seems highly unlikely), a mark 3 mod for a scenic roof is likely to be harder than building a new scenic carriage from scratch due to the amount of reinforcement which would need to be added to the floor and sides to compensate.

 

[Darandio]

I should have probably added several emoticons to depict the fact I was joking, apologies.

However, your explanation was interesting.

 

[Murph]

I agree - RIP (in the nicest possible way !).

They are only pieces of machinery after all - no point in getting too sentimental about them (and I say that as someone who does engineering design for living).

It's not just about being sentimental about them. They are still excellent carriages by today's standards, as long as the major structural elements are still sound. If there's scope for using them somewhere, to reduce or eliminate the need to buy some new stock, that's one less thing pushing fares up or preventing national debt and budget deficit coming down. Properly maintained, there's no significant safety concerns with them, and new stock doesn't offer major improvements for passengers that are not also offered by interior refurbishment.

Age alone is a dreadful justification for scrapping well engineered and built carriages. Eventually, corrosion or fatigue may push maintenance costs too high, and that's the time where scrapping becomes the correct economic choice. Any reasonable reuse of them prior to that point is providing the public with value for money.

Maybe their time has come, maybe not, it's still far from clear to me that scrapping is the best option.

 

[alexl92]

Could some 43s be re-engineered or re-geared to make them more suited to working on commuter workings?

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Could some 43s be re-engineered or re-geared to make them more suited to working on commuter workings?

Not suitable, you'd loose approx 2 coaches worth of passenger space (length of two power cars) and the slam doors of the mk3s aren't really suitable for commuter working as you'd have to have a staff member go along the length of the train checking all doors are shut. You'd realistically need to do what Chiltern have done with their mk3s

 

[6Gman]

I know it's Panto season, but do we have to do this on every thread?

Oh yes we do!


sorry .....