What Effect Will HS2 on the East/West Coast mainline?

[boxy321]

Yes, because all people with feet on seats are teenagers, and all of us are quite obviously scum... :roll:

99% are teenagers: boys to look hard, girls because of girl power/it's cute. They are scum.

I didn't say all teenagers are scum or that 99% of teenagers do it. Most just giggle nervously with their peers a lot and use the word 'like' and the phrase 'Oh my god!' four times per sentence.

 

[Boysteve]

It is likely that it will put the number of passengers on the mainlines to somewhere where they were at privatisation.

If we take rail growth (long distance passengers) between 2002/03 and 2015/16 where rail growth was 176% (i.e. for every 100 passengers in 2002 there are now 176).

Errr NO!
A 176% increase from 100 takes us to 276! For example, a 100% increase from 100 takes you to 200. By your logic a 100% increase takes you from 100 to 100 which is no increase at all.

 

[daikilo]

Errr NO!
A 176% increase from 100 takes us to 276! For example, a 100% increase from 100 takes you to 200. By your logic a 100% increase takes you from 100 to 100 which is no increase at all.

Your explanation is correct, however, such traffic actually grew by 76% in that period. This is a frequent misuse of the word "by" when "to" is what should have been used.

 

[miami]

99% are teenagers: boys to look hard, girls because of girl power/it's cute. They are scum.

I didn't say all teenagers are scum or that 99% of teenagers do it. Most just giggle nervously with their peers a lot and use the word 'like' and the phrase 'Oh my god!' four times per sentence.

I rarely see teenagers, or indeed anyone, with feet on seats. On my routes the rare times it happens it's usually professional women who take off their slip-on shoes and put them up.

 

[The Ham]

Your explanation is correct, however, such traffic actually grew by 76% in that period. This is a frequent misuse of the word "by" when "to" is what should have been used.

Thank you for that, I did mean 76% increase over the base flow.
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You'd be lucky to get 50% transfer never mind 70%

OK taking my figures from my first post:

It is likely that it will put the number of passengers on the mainlines to somewhere where they were at privatisation.

If we take rail growth (long distance passengers) between 2002/03 and 2015/16 where rail growth was to 176% (i.e. for every 100 passengers in 2002 there are now 176). Now if we assume that rail growth continues at the same rate of growth over the same timeframe going forward then we end up with 310 passengers in 2029/30 for every 100 in 2002/03.

Now if we assume that 70% of these passengers all switch to HS2 then the number of long distance passengers is then 93 for every 100 in 2002/03. At that sort of level it would imply that there would still be plenty of demand for long distance travel on the WCML. Even if we saw a 70% switch to HS2 today there would still be 53 passengers for every 100 in 2002/03 (i.e. all existing ICWC services could run by 6 coach trains).

So 176 passengers now rather than 100 in 2002/03 if we see zero growth before HS2 opens then there would be 88 passengers on HS2 and 88 on the classic lines for every 100 in 2002/03. Assuming a 50:50 split.

If growth carriers on at the same rate we could see passenger numbers of 155 on each.

Zero growth with a 50:50 split would mean a small reduction in capacity/service frequency on the classic lines could be provided.

The same rate of growth again would probably mean no change in capacity.

However, why do you think that passenger transfer would be 50:50?

 

[Holly]

What Effect Will HS2 on the East/West Coast mainline?
I'm interested what people's thoughts on this project are?

We can expect to see a growth in freight traffic.

Especially with Brexit there is likely to be more transoceanic containers shipped direct to/from Britain and less transshipped via Rotterdam etc.. Roads in the North of England just won't be able to handle it all.

 

[miami]

The 350 was slower, more spacious, better views
....
Do LM still offer a trolley service anywhere?

TPE do. £2 for a cup of tea is still a rip-off though.

ATW give me a trolley service on my manchester-bound commute on something (170ish?) too, it's great. I rarely partake, but nice to know it's there.

The fast LM services from Stafford to London aren't that much slower - an extra 40 minutes, but if you arrive at the station between :42 and :55 and the quickest way to get to London is the xx:55 LM service, rather than waiting for the next :42 VT service. The fact it's more comfortable (and cheaper) makes it a very beneficial service.

From Crewe it's less clear-cut, as the Stoke dogleg adds another 30 minute penalty, so finance comes into it (LM is £60-100 cheaper each way). While Virgin put on empty 11 car long distance trains like the 0930 CRE-EUS I'm currently on (8 people in my current coach), LM have overcrowding issues.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I rarely see teenagers, or indeed anyone, with feet on seats. On my routes the rare times it happens it's usually professional women who take off their slip-on shoes and put them up.

And if you take off your shoes why is it a problem? Your backside is arguably dirtier for obvious reasons
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From Crewe it's less clear-cut, as the Stoke dogleg adds another 30 minute penalty, so finance comes into it (LM is £60-100 cheaper each way). While Virgin put on empty 11 car long distance trains like the 0930 CRE-EUS I'm currently on (8 people in my current coach), LM have overcrowding issues.

Because, as I've said before, of the skewed fare system - without it, 4 cars would be totally adequate for those trains. Competition needs removing, and instead the VT fare needs to be lower and the LM one higher, and meet in the middle. Then concentrate on competing with the car.
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I and several others had the pleasure of waving off a (late) LM 350 full of shopping chavs from Coventry this morning, knowing that the Edinburgh Virgin 390 was waiting to come in to platform 3. I dread the prospect of these services being axed and the station being used for local-ish stopper trains and freight.

If the only option is feet-on-seats teenage scum, fare dodgers and out-loud music officionados I'll be back in the car. I still don't know where Lea Hall is on the map and have never been to Long Buckby, other than on the way to Northampton.

First Class is quite good value on LM - though 2+2 seating isn't really adequate you should avoid the "chavs".
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One of the Manchester-Stoke-Euston services already stops at MKC

Indeed it does. I can see long-term *all* classic WCML services stopping at MKC, though perhaps u/s restrictions will be needed to prevent them being crowded out by commuters.