What data should a toc take into account when deciding whether a new long distance route is viable?

[VItraveller]

Let’s take a hypothetical new route between Birmingham and Brighton, calling at places like Oxford, Reading and Gatwick.
If the paths were available and the requisite rolling stock could be acquired, what data should the train operating company take into account when considering whether this would be a viable service?
They could look at historical data from when trains did run the routes but historical patterns don’t really tell you much about how people travel today. They could look into people who are currently making the journey by rail but that wouldn’t take into account things like split ticketing, suppressed demand due to quirks of pricing on different sections of rail, and the impact that a direct service would have instead of the need to change in London.
Perhaps they could run focus groups, or look at the bus and coach travel between the cities or car travel?

 

[The Planner]

Let’s take a hypothetical new route between Birmingham and Brighton, calling at places like Oxford, Reading and Gatwick.
If the paths were available and the requisite rolling stock could be acquired, what data should the train operating company take into account when considering whether this would be a viable service?
They could look at historical data from when trains did run the routes but historical patterns don’t really tell you much about how people travel today. They could look into people who are currently making the journey by rail but that wouldn’t take into account things like split ticketing, suppressed demand due to quirks of pricing on different sections of rail, and the impact that a direct service would have instead of the need to change in London.
Perhaps they could run focus groups, or look at the bus and coach travel between the cities or car travel?

They will look at the industry systems such as MOIRA (can't remember what it all stands for) and LENNON (Latest Earnings Networked Nationally OverNight) and decide how much they can make from new journeys and how much they can abstract from other operators.

 

[Bald Rick]

Let’s take a hypothetical new route between Birmingham and Brighton, calling at places like Oxford, Reading and Gatwick.
If the paths were available and the requisite rolling stock could be acquired, what data should the train operating company take into account when considering whether this would be a viable service?
They could look at historical data from when trains did run the routes but historical patterns don’t really tell you much about how people travel today. They could look into people who are currently making the journey by rail but that wouldn’t take into account things like split ticketing, suppressed demand due to quirks of pricing on different sections of rail, and the impact that a direct service would have instead of the need to change in London.
Perhaps they could run focus groups, or look at the bus and coach travel between the cities or car travel?

You‘ve kind of got it the wrong way round. You look at what the flows are from ticket data and revenue allocations, both of which can take into account split ticketing etc. Also you can do transport demand modelling (which is multi mode), and you might well do bespoke market research. Similar to what you would do if building a new station or new line - the models are well developed and easy to pay someone to develop and run.

If you find an opportunity, then you start looking for paths and trains.

 

[stevieinselby]

You‘ve kind of got it the wrong way round. You look at what the flows are from ticket data and revenue allocations, both of which can take into account split ticketing etc. Also you can do transport demand modelling (which is multi mode), and you might well do bespoke market research. Similar to what you would do if building a new station or new line - the models are well developed and easy to pay someone to develop and run.

There's also the need to look at journeys that people aren't making by train now. The whole point about new routes is that they should add to the network and not be primarily abstractive from existing services. So what you're really looking for, if you want to have a good chance of your proposal being approved, are flows that have relatively low numbers on them right now, certainly significantly lower than similar flows that do have a direct service, because that points to suppressed demand that could be unlocked by the addition of a direct service.

 

[Bald Rick]

There's also the need to look at journeys that people aren't making by train now. The whole point about new routes is that they should add to the network and not be primarily abstractive from existing services. So what you're really looking for, if you want to have a good chance of your proposal being approved, are flows that have relatively low numbers on them right now, certainly significantly lower than similar flows that do have a direct service, because that points to suppressed demand that could be unlocked by the addition of a direct service.

Thats what the multi mode demand modelling does. Used extensively.

 

[telstarbox]

For your example, you can place ANPR cameras on the M1/M40 and M23 and establish how many people drive the whole way.

 

[Western Lord]

For your example, you can place ANPR cameras on the M1/M40 and M23 and establish how many people drive the whole way.

You'll find that hardly anybody drives from Birmingham New Street to Brighton Station. There may be some driving from within twenty miles of Birmingham to within twenty miles of Brighton, but good luck trying to get them out of their cars and faffing around with connections at either end.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Nobody has mentioned the cost side yet, other than an assumption about having trains and paths.

How much are these trains costing?

Where will they be maintained?

How many crew will I need, and do I need to set up a new operational base?

How much does all of that cost?

Then we can compare to the potential revenue……

 

[The exile]

You'll find that hardly anybody drives from Birmingham New Street to Brighton Station. There may be some driving from within twenty miles of Birmingham to within twenty miles of Brighton, but good luck trying to get them out of their cars and faffing around with connections at either end.

Presumably the same applies to Birmingham and Plymouth, yet there’s plenty of through trains between the two. Where you’re right is of course that ANPR data would give you no indication of how many would be likely to swap mode if there were a through trains between.

 

[VItraveller]

Interesting, so it seems like there is a lot of data that can be taken on board but it can also be very flawed and inaccurate.
I think access operators still have a role to play in the industry, they can run roots which they think will be profitable and if they are, they can later be nationalised and if not then the open access operator has lost out not GBR.

 

[Route115?]

MOIRA doesn't actually stand for anything. Operational Resesarch systems at the time were often named after young women. I think that it started with Monica who appeared in InterCity adverts in the 60s.

MOIRA is really meant for incremental changes to services, not new ones. I would look at National Travel Survey data. This would give the total number of journeys between cities and also the modal split. Hopefully a new through service would generate new traffic as well as attracting passengers from other modes. There was a multi-modal model called PLANET that could be used certainly in the London area - I don't know if it still exists. You could look at previous new services such as Thameslink and see what effect that had. I did work on this 30 years ago and Thameslink generated a lot of new traffic. I think that a TOC would shell out on some experienced consultants. There have been cases in the past of consultants saying what clients want to hear though (forecasts for HS1 come to mind) - make sure that you avoid this!

 

[Topological]

Presumably if you had access to the ANPR data and could then guesstimate 2% of switch that would be a useful figure. The motorways are full of ANPR, so it would just be who is allowed to use that data.

As well as revenue abstraction avoidance, there is something to be said for new services calling at "parkway" locations and trying to grow that market.

You have to get Parkway right though. East Midlands Parkway has not been able to siphon off much London traffic and is not much use as a Nottingham or Leicester park and ride locatioN because park and ride demands higher frequency. The only other medium distance flow is Sheffield and I think once you reach Junction 24 it is tempting to carry on to Meadowhall.