What branches would be most under threat?

[railfan99]

No one likes 'doom and gloom' scenarios, but let's say your strikes continue.

The UK government loses patience and announces that due to overspending on the railways, agreements with TOCs (or via the proposed Great British Railways) a few branch lines will have passenger services soon withdrawn.

From Australia, I'm planning on visiting the UK again later in 2023.

In this hypothetical scenario that few of us might welcome (I wouldn't), which if any branch lines would be most under threat of closure?

Politics (and lobbying) will come into it, but I'm trying to get a handle on which branch lines tend to have the fewest passengers per train-kilometre, or are regarded as not well used.

On previous visits I've done every West Country branch line (some like Looe and Gunnislake were so good they deserve re-examination), every rural line in Scotland (but hardly any of the more 'suburban' ones around say Glasgow), a smattering of others such as Saltburn and Whitby, plus a few along the coast down south but very few in the Midlands, Wales and East Anglia.

 

[jagardner1984]

The problem is those least economic are often the most "lifeline" services to rural communities, and the evidence is the train is a far greater driver of modal shift from private to public transport than for example a bus service. i.e. withdrawing some of those lines in Scotland can only have a detrimental impact on tourism.

If anything I would say as post covid working patterns begin to become more set, some of the south east commuter services where working from home has become more prevalent would be more likely victims of service reduction than rural lines.

As the recession and salary reductions (now predicted to last into 2024) continues to bite, and chronic labour shortages continue as a result of Brexit, WFH provision will become more of a differentiating feature for employees, so those who can avoid paying, for example, £5200 for a season ticket Bedford to St Pancras, a figure which is rarely fully compensated in salaries, by Working from Home, will doubtless do so, and be financially forced to do so regardless of their preference.

 

[Llandudno]

It may depend if any of the potentially under threat branch lines serve marginal constituencies…

 

[KevL]

When whitby got reduced there was outcry locally. Some schools n folk with jobs in middlesboro depended on them. i gather the 93 bus is busy at peak.

 

[flitwickbeds]

Not necessarily branches but I can easily see the following being permanently closed to passenger services to save money/simplify operations:

• Lines/Branches
  • Stalybridge to Stockport
  • Heysham Harbour to Morecambe
  • Stranraer to Ayr
  • Gainsborough to Barnetby via Brigg
• Stations:
  • Redcar British Steel
  • Manchester United FC Halt
  • Peartree
  • Doleham
  • Pevensey Bay
  • Pilning
  • Polesworth
  • Shippea Hill
  • Lakenheath
  • Teesside Airport
  • Some Stations between Chathill and Newcastle
  • Some Stations between Arbroath and Ladybank
  • Kempston Hardwick

 

[mpthomson]

No one likes 'doom and gloom' scenarios, but let's say your strikes continue.

The UK government loses patience and announces that due to overspending on the railways, agreements with TOCs (or via the proposed Great British Railways) a few branch lines will have passenger services soon withdrawn.

From Australia, I'm planning on visiting the UK again later in 2023.

In this hypothetical scenario that few of us might welcome (I wouldn't), which if any branch lines would be most under threat of closure?

Politics (and lobbying) will come into it, but I'm trying to get a handle on which branch lines tend to have the fewest passengers per train-kilometre, or are regarded as not well used.

On previous visits I've done every West Country branch line (some like Looe and Gunnislake were so good they deserve re-examination), every rural line in Scotland (but hardly any of the more 'suburban' ones around say Glasgow), a smattering of others such as Saltburn and Whitby, plus a few along the coast down south but very few in the Midlands, Wales and East Anglia.

The significant and permanent reductions in passenger numbers will be on commuter routes in and out of large conurbations in the previous morning and evening peaks as WFH and use of Teams/Zoom etc for meetings becomes embedded. Leisure travel and that involving the smaller and/or scenic branch lines would be less affected if companies could run services properly.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The most at risk one of those branches that have all day services rather than Parly ones is probably Barton upon Humber. It is unlikely we will lose any Scottish or Welsh branches because the political situation there is different.

I also think it not unlikely that the Marston Vale will now be a bus operation until East West Rail opens.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Many of the most uneconomic lines are in Scotland and Wales which are not part of the DfT-controlled network, so their fate will be decided in Edinburgh and Cardiff.
One of the most obvious in Wales is the Blaenau Ffestiniog branch, which is paralleled throughout by the A470 which is frankly faster.
It is also regularly washed out for weeks at a time by floods in the Conwy and Lledr river valleys, and must have cost NR a fortune to maintain and reinstate over the years.
But it's very difficult to see the Welsh Government deciding to pull the plug, and the line does have seasonal tourist traffic, some of it linked to the Ffestiniog Railway.

The line is in Conwy county except for the final couple of miles from mid-tunnel to Blaenau station, which are in Gwynedd.
Potential freight use has been regularly reviewed, but has recently crystallised into a terminal for slate waste at Llandudno Jn fed by road.
There is some thought of developing the Trawsfynydd former nuclear power station site, to the south of Blaenau but with the rails still in place, for one of the modular nuclear plants being promoted by Rolls Royce.

The Central Wales line is perennially under threat for its low passenger count, but unlike the Blaenau line it does pass through some remote country with poor road links.
Meanwhile the Welsh Government wastes its time and money on potential re-openings on Anglesey and Aberystwyth-Carmarthen.

 

[Nottingham59]

The UK government loses patience and announces that due to overspending on the railways, agreements with TOCs (or via the proposed Great British Railways) a few branch lines will have passenger services soon withdrawn.

What I think the government will do first is change the rules about closing stations, so that the railway is no longer obliged to run a parliamentary service just to avoid the expense and hassle of withdrawing services completely.

It would give a strong signal of intent, while being much easier for the minister to justify on the Today programme on Radio 4.

 

[gg1]

• Stranraer to Ayr

Stranraer to Girvan definitely but I think Girvan to Ayr is pretty safe.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Stranraer to Girvan definitely but I think Girvan to Ayr is pretty safe.

A logical thing to do would be to electrify to Girvan and increase that service, but then have a connecting bus to Stranraer via Cairnryan for the ferries. I don't think ScotGov will countenance any closures, though.

The S&C would be too political, so you're mostly just left with Parliamentaries being trimmed. Most of the true basket cases other than Barton aren't in England.

I suspect most of it will just be significant frequency cuts on minor lines and at minor stations. I have suggested a few before, e.g:

Southport hourly to Vic, with one peak extra in each direction to Castlefield, only this latter service would call at New Lane, Bescar Lane and Hoscar.

Cumbrian Coast back to two hourly.

Morecambe to hourly.

Marston Vale when it reopens down to a single unit service.

In essence we are I think looking at a number of returns to 1997 frequencies.

 

[70014IronDuke]

Nobody mentioned

1) the Bowland Forest (Bentham) line?

2) Cumbrian Coast
Edit - I see @Bletchleyite above. But what about closing it completely to pax twixt Whitehaven and Millom?

However, from what I've seen, strikes apart, these two lines (and the S&C) have maintained a surprisingly good standard of service, with only limited cancellations.

In contrast, the Whitby line seems to have had daily cancellations for months, even if many have been the 'extra' workings to Battersby only.

This must have got local passengers (or would-be passengers) very wary of relying on the trains. I have the feeling that if a decent bus service were promised, a lot of the opposition to closure could be deflected. Run the good bus service for a year and then reduce that, citing low usage?

 

[Bletchleyite]

1) Possible I suppose

2) I doubt it. The line now has to stay open for a new freight flow to that coal mine, and you'd not save much by lopping the middle bit as you'd need two additional layovers either side of it. It might even save nothing at all unless the track could be lifted, or maybe a fraction of a unit/crew. Reducing the frequency is likely, though, to be honest I thought increasing it to hourly was profligate madness and I was astonished it went ahead.

 

[flitwickbeds]

I also think it not unlikely that the Marston Vale will now be a bus operation until East West Rail opens.

Sadly, I think you're right. I very rarely use it but it has come in handy in the past for both my wife and I when Thameslink is foobarred. However they rarely do ticket acceptance these days so the emergency route now is to Arlesey.

Now may be the best opportunity for EWR to consult hard and state their preferred option for retaining all stations vs the 5 station plan (preferred by me, with some tweaks).

What I think the government will do first is change the rules about closing stations, so that the railway is no longer obliged to run a parliamentary service just to avoid the expense and hassle of withdrawing services completely.

Yes I think you're right, and I think that's probably for the best as long as the new legislation sets some ground rules for minimum requirements for a closure - for example, must not have been used for more than X people on average for each of the last Y years while running a full timetabled service. So for example Teesside Airport would not automatically qualify as there has been no opportunity for people to use it for the last 6 months. In situations like that, more criteria would need to be met - maybe a suitably high percentage of local people (within an R mile radius) have to agree to the closure in return for something else being funded (a new bus route, or extra stops at another station, maybe).

The situation cannot be left as it is now with Wedgwood not having received a service for nearly 20 years but still remaining officially open, while a TOC can decide on a whim to withdraw service entirely from a station because they haven't been bothered to properly maintain the platform, and National Rail can play God and simply decide not to put back a footbridge after engineering works and put a whole station essentially out of action.

I've always believed that these types of station need either closing or reopening with a full service, and there needs to be a more satisfactory way of doing that without running a single train one way at 3pm on a Sunday afternoon just to avoid accountability/scrutinity/someone actually making a bloody decision and following it through.

 

[PTR 444]

No one likes 'doom and gloom' scenarios, but let's say your strikes continue.

The UK government loses patience and announces that due to overspending on the railways, agreements with TOCs (or via the proposed Great British Railways) a few branch lines will have passenger services soon withdrawn.

From Australia, I'm planning on visiting the UK again later in 2023.

In this hypothetical scenario that few of us might welcome (I wouldn't), which if any branch lines would be most under threat of closure?

Politics (and lobbying) will come into it, but I'm trying to get a handle on which branch lines tend to have the fewest passengers per train-kilometre, or are regarded as not well used.

On previous visits I've done every West Country branch line (some like Looe and Gunnislake were so good they deserve re-examination), every rural line in Scotland (but hardly any of the more 'suburban' ones around say Glasgow), a smattering of others such as Saltburn and Whitby, plus a few along the coast down south but very few in the Midlands, Wales and East Anglia.

Maybe as an alternative to closure, some well-used but heavily subsidised branch lines could be converted to light rail to save costs.

I would imagine the most likely contenders for this treatment are:

• All of the Cornish branches
• Severn Beach Line (with Avonmouth via Henbury remaining heavy rail for freight)
• Island Line
• Stourbridge Town branch
• Cardiff Valley Lines
• All of Merseyrail
• Ormskirk - Preston (or Burscough if the chord towards Southport materialises)
• Kirkby - Wigan
• Bidston - Wrexham Central
• Ellesmere Port - Helsby
• Stockport - Stalybridge (as part of Metrolink)
• Manchester - Rose Hill/Glossop (as part of Metrolink)
• Barton on Humber branch
• Whitby Line

 

[railfan99]

Thank you! Most informative and comprehensive.

Of all the ones mentioned, I recently did the Bentham line and enjoyed it, but being a foreigner I have to look up where Barton upon Humber is. Nor do I know where all the sttaions mentioned are.

B upon H will be on my list.

Pleasing that no one's mentioned that short but interesting 'people mover' Stourbridge Junction to 'the Town' line as thanks in early October 2022 to one of your numerous rail strikes, I had to delete from my itinerary, as was Strathspey Railway in Scotland and the Keighley and Worth Valley Railway.

 

[Philip]

I think most of the main trunk routes will have their frequency significantly reduced until further notice before branch lines and stations start to close.

In terms of long distance to London:

Avanti: 4tph Birmingham (from Wolverhampton), Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow to London.
WMT: 1tph Birmingham-Northampton-all stops to Watford-London, 1tph Crewe-London direct.
Chiltern: 1tph Birmingham-London
EMR: 1tph Sheffield-London via Derby, 1tph Nottingham-London;
LNER 1tph Leeds-London, 1tph Edinburgh-York-London.
GWR: 1tph Cardiff-London, 1tph Bristol-London.


Even if something along the lines of the above happens and the focus then turns towards line and station closures, I would only expect parliamentary lines and stations to close initially. I think the worst case scenario might see branches like Clitheroe, Morecambe, Huddersfield-Penistone, Blackpool South, Kirkby, Preston-Ormskirk, Conwy Valley, Stourbridge shuttle etc reduced to 2-3 services per day in each direction.

 

[railfan99]

Maybe as an alternative to closure, some well-used but heavily subsidised branch lines could be converted to light rail to save costs.

I would imagine the most likely contenders for this treatment are:

• All of the Cornish branches
• Severn Beach Line (with Avonmouth via Henbury remaining heavy rail for freight)
• Island Line
• Stourbridge Town branch
• Cardiff Valley Lines
• All of Merseyrail
• Ormskirk - Preston (or Burscough if the chord towards Southport materialises)
• Kirkby - Wigan
• Bidston - Wrexham Central
• Ellesmere Port - Helsby
• Stockport - Stalybridge (as part of Metrolink)
• Manchester - Rose Hill/Glossop (as part of Metrolink)
• Barton on Humber branch
• Whitby Line

You have a much larger population on a small island compared to my country, but converting lines to light rail is expensive and probably only justified for high passenger volumes.

I don't agree with it but why wouldn't "they" just put on road coaches/buses?

 

[Failed Unit]

The rural routes are interesting. if I look at an area I know well, Lincolnshire, you can see an interesting picture over the past 5 years. I agree that the Barton-on-Humber branch could be an issue, as it will save a unit, staff etc. But is hardly going to help keep the conservative MP in the area (unless they have already given up on that)

I am sure with the cascades and replacement of the 15x with 17x the lease charges have increased.

But also the traffic is increasing, to the extent that you can be left behind on the platform. Most people don’t use the train for commuting, it isn’t frequent enough for that with big gaps in the services (students seem to be the most regular). But leisure travel seems to be strong. Now 3 coach trains are on many services I am sure that passenger numbers will go up (as passengers previously left on the platform). I However will this increase in passengers reflect in increase in revenue to cover the increased lease costs. I don’t think so as this appears to be the problem. Passenger numbers are definitely up - these routes used to be 153 operated until recently so filling a 170 speaks for iteself. I suspect this is reflected everywhere as I bet the 195s are slightly more expensive to lease than the 14x’s

Cleethorpes - Gainsborough I suspect will probably go, (again does it really cost much as the unit would probably not be used anyway on a Saturday).

Most of Lincolnshire will be at risk (again) but it is dangerous as it is basically saying the UK government wants everyone to drive.

If the government want public transport they need to pay for it, but my hunch considering how long it has taken do anything with the last review, that a lot of tub thumping will take place, the general election will come along and service levels will stay the same in the majority of cases. Elections tend to stop cuts and I don’t think Labour will follow through, even if the cuts are traditionally not in their areas. However reduction in frequency on routes such as Leeds - Manchester will be a good thing. It managed with 4tph in the past and I doubt most people really care the 5th hasn’t really happened.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Dec 2022 ==

I think most of the main trunk routes will have their frequency significantly reduced until further notice before branch lines and stations start to close.

In terms of long distance to London:

Avanti: 4tph Birmingham (from Wolverhampton), Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow to London.
WMT: 1tph Birmingham-Northampton-all stops to Watford-London, 1tph Crewe-London direct.
Chiltern: 1tph Birmingham-London
EMR: 1tph Sheffield-London via Derby, 1tph Nottingham-London;
LNER 1tph Leeds-London, 1tph Edinburgh-York-London.
GWR: 1tph Cardiff-London, 1tph Bristol-London.


Even if something along the lines of the above happens and the focus then turns towards line and station closures, I would only expect parliamentary lines and stations to close initially. I think the worst case scenario might see branches like Clitheroe, Morecambe, Huddersfield-Penistone, Blackpool South, Kirkby, Preston-Ormskirk, Conwy Valley, Stourbridge shuttle etc reduced to 2-3 services per day in each direction.

The trunk routes raise an interesting point, LNER are back to pre-covid numbers but the yield is lower.

But if you cut back these routes what is really saved? If you take LNER, they can’t hand back the Azuma’s (but maybe the 91s and mk4s). You could cut back the x30 at Newcastle (like in the past) and increase the fares to choke off Edinburgh demand.

History shows us short term cutbacks cause pain for years. Moving the 319s to Southern cause a lot of problems after the 80s recessions once traffic recovered on Thameslink.

 

[fishwomp]

[..]

Even if something along the lines of the above happens and the focus then turns towards line and station closures, I would only expect parliamentary lines and stations to close initially. I think the worst case scenario might see branches like Clitheroe, Morecambe, Huddersfield-Penistone, Blackpool South, Kirkby, Preston-Ormskirk, Conwy Valley, Stourbridge shuttle etc reduced to 2-3 services per day in each direction.

Huddersfield-Penistone is busy..

Denby Dale (120,000 entries/exits) is the largest but others load well too. Sheffield-Penistone is busy, it unloads a good bit at Penistone - but not entirely as Meadowhall is a magnet for the whole route - and then builds up towards Huddersfield from Denby Dale. Total entries/exits for the Denby Dale - Lockwood stops is 310,000 / year. You'll have to work harder on your list.

 

[Philip]

Huddersfield-Penistone is busy..

Denby Dale (120,000 entries/exits) is the largest but others load well too. Sheffield-Penistone is busy, it unloads a good bit at Penistone - but not entirely as Meadowhall is a magnet for the whole route - and then builds up towards Huddersfield from Denby Dale. Total entries/exits for the Denby Dale - Lockwood stops is 310,000 / year. You'll have to work harder on your list.

Fair enough, although the majority of 'branch lines' are likely to be fairly busy and probably with similar or bigger numbers of passengers to what you have quoted. Hence why I said that the above would be a worst case scenario and that the more likely outcome would be a reduction in mainline frequencies to hourly for most places and closure of parliamentary routes.

 

[Starmill]

Maybe as an alternative to closure, some well-used but heavily subsidised branch lines could be converted to light rail to save costs.

I would imagine the most likely contenders for this treatment are:

• All of the Cornish branches
• Severn Beach Line (with Avonmouth via Henbury remaining heavy rail for freight)
• Island Line
• Stourbridge Town branch
• Cardiff Valley Lines
• All of Merseyrail
• Ormskirk - Preston (or Burscough if the chord towards Southport materialises)
• Kirkby - Wigan
• Bidston - Wrexham Central
• Ellesmere Port - Helsby
• Stockport - Stalybridge (as part of Metrolink)
• Manchester - Rose Hill/Glossop (as part of Metrolink)
• Barton on Humber branch
• Whitby Line

Merseyrail and Transport for Wales services really aren't in scope - the Combined Authority and Transport for Wales will be likely to keep the funding up, same with Translink and Transport Scotland.

It's really only savings that Network Rail in England and Wales can make, or the fourteen DfT operations.

Withdrawing the services that run a handful of times per day or week will save very little money, so although Ellesmere Port - Helsby and Stalybridge - Stockport probably should be for the chop, it won't make much difference.

However, I certainly agree with the suggestion that Cleethorpes - Barton-on-Humber and Ormskirk - Preston are absolutely at risk. They could be replaced by buses for years to come, and maybe the sections used only by those services could even be mothballed. These lines use substantial train crew resources up, but carry very few passengers. They carry few people making long journeys and are not very tourist-focused. They are probably the two most at risk.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Pleasing that no one's mentioned that short but interesting 'people mover' Stourbridge Junction to 'the Town' line as thanks in early October 2022 to one of your numerous rail strikes, I had to delete from my itinerary, as was Strathspey Railway in Scotland and the Keighley and Worth Valley Railway.

I was just about to type the Stourbridge branch. Rumours elsewhere on the forum that the 139s have seen far better days as well.

Greetings to Australia (moving there next month )

 

[Starmill]

I was just about to type the Stourbridge branch. Rumours elsewhere on the forum that the 139s have seen far better days as well.

Greetings to Australia (moving there next month )

I think it depends how much money can be saved under the contract with Pre Metro. If it's coming up for renewal soon I'd agree it's at risk of lapsing, otherwise it will probably continue as is until the units can no longer hack it.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Maybe as an alternative to closure, some well-used but heavily subsidised branch lines could be converted to light rail to save costs.

I would imagine the most likely contenders for this treatment are:

• All of the Cornish branches
• Severn Beach Line (with Avonmouth via Henbury remaining heavy rail for freight)
• Island Line
• Stourbridge Town branch
• Cardiff Valley Lines
• All of Merseyrail
• Ormskirk - Preston (or Burscough if the chord towards Southport materialises)
• Kirkby - Wigan
• Bidston - Wrexham Central
• Ellesmere Port - Helsby
• Stockport - Stalybridge (as part of Metrolink)
• Manchester - Rose Hill/Glossop (as part of Metrolink)
• Barton on Humber branch
• Whitby Line

The Cardiff Valley Lines are in part being converted to light rail, but in the most expensive way possible, especially when you consider what overhead wiring they’re installing for a tram. @DanNCL knows more than me about why it’s such a waste of money, he may wish to elaborate.

Cornish branches I can’t see working as trams, and the Stourbridge Town branch really isn’t worth the investment, but double tracked and converted to light rail, the Island Line could do well with double high floor M5000 trams or something, with fifteen to twenty minute headways.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Dec 2022 ==

I think it depends how much money can be saved under the contract with Pre Metro. If it's coming up for renewal soon I'd agree it's at risk of lapsing, otherwise it will probably continue as is until the units can no longer hack it.

Honestly, I don’t think it’d be the end of the world if they closed the branch and put a shuttle bus on, free for anyone with NR tickets.

 

[DanNCL]

The Cardiff Valley Lines are in part being converted to light rail, but in the most expensive way possible, especially when you consider what overhead wiring they’re installing for a tram. @DanNCL knows more than me about why it’s such a waste of money, he may wish to elaborate.

I can't back it up with figures, but I'd be utterly amazed if the 25kV AC S2(?) wiring for the tram routes is anywhere near as economical as a simple setup with either 750V DC or 1500V DC wires done to light rail spec. I can't remember the exact difference now, but in a stakeholder meeting in the North East we were shown what the cost differences between 25kV AC main line spec wiring and DC light rail spec wiring was and I remember it being quite staggering.

There's the argument that 25kV may be needed in the future, but I'd have thought that was much more likely to be a neccessity for Rotherham, where DC wires have been used, than it will ever be for Pontypridd.