Were refurbished HSTs the right choice for ScotRail?

[mullac30]

It would be great to see HSTs replaced at one point or another with custom made Hunterston-built Talgo inter-city trains, they'd probably be able to build the factory and push the trains into service long before the last power door Mark 3 leaves Doncaster in November 2027! (at the current rate of delivery which hasn't improved)

 

[sprinterguy]

Aye, I should have been clearer, I didn't mean for the original decision, nor for now, but in case the HSTs aren't ready by the 2020 deadline.

It could be possible, there's different considerations if you're advocating the idea as a stop gap until the full refurbished HST fleet is available, or as a wholesale replacement for the Scotrail HST programme.

If using 67s and mark 4s as a stop gap until all the HSTs have been refurbished, it should be noted that the mark 4s aren't available until after the 2020 deadline either, it would require additional crew training (and possibly route clearance, mark 4s haven't been further north than Inverkeithing/Rosyth Dockyard as far as I'm aware) on the type, and time and cost to convert the DVTs to AAR multiple working, when a derogation to use "classic" HSTs for a period of time might be more straightforward.

If as a wholesale replacement, then it would be a struggle to source sufficient locos if Transport for Wales intend to continue using them with their three planned push-pull mark 4 formations, even assuming DB Cargo have no other work for the class following the cessation of the contract to provide 'Thunderbird' locos on the East Coast post-IET introduction; and also a struggle to source sufficient stock if LNER retain any sets as stated in the franchise agreement, or Alliance Rail are still chasing after any as has been rumoured for their proposed West Coast operation. There are also the limitations of class 67 locos in terms of acceleration and inability to take advantage of differential speed limits that may render them incapable of delivering the journey time improvements proposed with the Scotrail HST fleet.

None of this necessarily insurmountable; Transport for Wales will be doing exactly this albeit on a very small scale in what I would consider a similar operating environment; but a few points to be considered and either way it'd also be a fair few contracts and agreements to arrange or renegotiate at short notice.

 

[gingertom]

And either way that'll be a fair few contracts and agreements to arrange or renegotiate at short notice.

and we still don't know what the spec of the 93 is as yet- could be a really useful machine.

 

[Photohunter71]

and we still don't know what the spec of the 93 is as yet- could be a really useful machine.

It depends on who is getting this so-called 93, and where will they be kept? Motherwell TMD? A fleet of 68's and tag on order of mk V coaching stock is all that is required. I do agree with you about this 93, if as is rumoured, then it will be a useful piece of kit.

 

[Wolfie]

Not necessarily if a clause is provided in the franchise and lease agreements that the diesel locos can be swapped for suitable electrics post electrification, as per the TPE franchise where class 88s are specified.

Unless there is another guaranteed opening for the locos what ROSCO would take the risk?

 

[JohnMcL7]

It depends on who is getting this so-called 93, and where will they be kept? Motherwell TMD? A fleet of 68's and tag on order of mk V coaching stock is all that is required. I do agree with you about this 93, if as is rumoured, then it will be a useful piece of kit.

Can they buy more 68's though when they're not emissions compliant any more? From what I'd read on here they'd need a modified set up to comply with the new rules and it's not necessarily that straightforward. Aside from the fact I'd have thought it's going to take a fair bit of time to manufacture and test that many locomotives and rolling stock, surely it's also going to be expensive as well?

 

[Journeyman]

I think it's fair to say that ScotRail are essentially screwed, if not now then beyond December 2019, unless Wabtec miraculously recover. While there are a number of new rolling stock options that could work, there's a lot of people ahead of them in the queue, and slam-door HSTs are not compliant with a whole slew of modern standards.

 

[Journeyman]

Can they buy more 68's though when they're not emissions compliant any more? From what I'd read on here they'd need a modified set up to comply with the new rules and it's not necessarily that straightforward. Aside from the fact I'd have thought it's going to take a fair bit of time to manufacture and test that many locomotives and rolling stock, surely it's also going to be expensive as well?

It's certainly my understanding that only a limited number of 68s could be purchased, and I believe that number has been hit.

 

[Iskra]

I think it's fair to say that ScotRail are essentially screwed, if not now then beyond December 2019, unless Wabtec miraculously recover. While there are a number of new rolling stock options that could work, there's a lot of people ahead of them in the queue, and slam-door HSTs are not compliant with a whole slew of modern standards.

Despite being massively behind, there is talk of redundancies, don't expect any recovery.

 

[superkev]

Despite being massively behind, there is talk of redundancies, don't expect any recovery.

With the dept of twirps (dft ) current addiction to new mostly foreign trains I fear for the future of firms like Wabtec. Much less work once all the bathrooms and other prm modes are done.
K

 

[geoffk]

I think it's fair to say that ScotRail are essentially screwed, if not now then beyond December 2019, unless Wabtec miraculously recover. While there are a number of new rolling stock options that could work, there's a lot of people ahead of them in the queue, and slam-door HSTs are not compliant with a whole slew of modern standards.

How about 180s, when Hull Trains get their Azumas? Sorry, i just remembered they are not very reliable...........

 

[Starmill]

How about 180s, when Hull Trains get their Azumas? Sorry, i just remembered they are not very reliable...........

Azuma is LNER's name for them.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How about 180s, when Hull Trains get their Azumas? Sorry, i just remembered they are not very reliable...........

They are unreliable rubbish fit only for scrap.

 

[Photohunter71]

Can they buy more 68's though when they're not emissions compliant any more? From what I'd read on here they'd need a modified set up to comply with the new rules and it's not necessarily that straightforward. Aside from the fact I'd have thought it's going to take a fair bit of time to manufacture and test that many locomotives and rolling stock, surely it's also going to be expensive as well?

If that is confirmed as the case, then surely this proposed class 93 or a tag on order of the new proposed diesels that DRS are going to be tendering for may be a solution? Surely there is some form of discount on a tag on order for locomotives and coaching stock?

 

[Journeyman]

They are unreliable rubbish fit only for scrap.

Also there's only 14 of them - ScotRail need 26 sets.

 

[sprinterguy]

Also there's only 14 of them - ScotRail need 26 sets.

And more pertinently still, only 4 with Hull Trains: Grand Central show no signs of relinquishing their 10 any time soon.

 

[geoffk]

Azuma is LNER's name for them.

Yes sorry, you know what I mean but point taken. Not enough 180s of course even if they were reliable.

 

[Highlandspring]

Much less work once all the bathrooms and other prm modes are done.

Cool, when are they fitting the baths? Will fluffy towels be provided or will you have to bring your own?

 

[Iskra]

With the dept of twirps (dft ) current addiction to new mostly foreign trains I fear for the future of firms like Wabtec. Much less work once all the bathrooms and other prm modes are done.
K

I don't know. I suspect there will be less work, but there will still be some. There will always be unforeseen rolling stock crises and budgetary pressures that require second hand stock being pressed into service as it can be quicker and cheaper. We will always need the 'sticking-plaster' solution to make up for our understandable inability to predict the future accurately.

Mistakes are still happening. Northern haven't ordered enough new trains to cover the number of pacers/153's being withdrawn. There is going to be a surplus of EMU's that someone might want to do something with. Open Access might want some work doing. How long are WCRC etc going to run MK1's and 2's for? All the 15X fleets are going to need something doing to them- 153's into baggage vans, 158's into scenic 158's.

 

[DanNCL]

I personally think that at the time this was all announced, the HST looked like a very good choice for ScotRail. Whilst Wabtec have taken forever to release the first completed set, I think it's too early to dismiss the project as a failure. Wabtec took forever to release the first refurbished Tyne & Wear Metro unit, however after the first few were done the pace picked up massively - to the extent where units were being delivered every 14 days and ultimately the final one was delivered a few months early. It's possible that the same could happen with the ScotRail HSTs, so I think it's too early to dismiss them as being a bad choice. There's still a chance that this could be a massive success, however Wabtec really do need to up the speed of production if this is to work out well, otherwise HSTs would end up being a bad choice for ScotRail.

 

[Journeyman]

I personally think that at the time this was all announced, the HST looked like a very good choice for ScotRail.

I disagree - there were plenty in the industry who thought it was crazy, and figured something like this would happen.

Whilst Wabtec have taken forever to release the first completed set, I think it's too early to dismiss the project as a failure.

Nope. The last set was meant to be completed by next month, so we should have 26 sets - so far we have one. That's a pretty major failure.

Wabtec took forever to release the first refurbished Tyne & Wear Metro unit, however after the first few were done the pace picked up massively - to the extent where units were being delivered every 14 days and ultimately the final one was delivered a few months early. It's possible that the same could happen with the ScotRail HSTs, so I think it's too early to dismiss them as being a bad choice.

But it's too late for that to happen now, unless they miraculously deliver 25 sets in a month.

They were a bad choice.

 

[mcmad]

The franchise agreement shows all 27 HST sets in use by December 18 and given there is no news of set 2 arriving any time soon then I'm not sure how only delivering 1 set in the time 27 were planned is anything but a failure. The same table shows 10 156, 8 158 and 34 170 units leaving between December 17 and 18. The 314's were meant to be down to the last few units by now with the 385 fleet up to 57 sets.

Is even 10 'classic' HST sets enough for December change?

 

[Highland37]

I agree. Wabtec have utterly failed to deliver on this.

 

[mullac30]

I personally think that at the time this was all announced, the HST looked like a very good choice for ScotRail. Whilst Wabtec have taken forever to release the first completed set, I think it's too early to dismiss the project as a failure. Wabtec took forever to release the first refurbished Tyne & Wear Metro unit, however after the first few were done the pace picked up massively - to the extent where units were being delivered every 14 days and ultimately the final one was delivered a few months early. It's possible that the same could happen with the ScotRail HSTs, so I think it's too early to dismiss them as being a bad choice. There's still a chance that this could be a massive success, however Wabtec really do need to up the speed of production if this is to work out well, otherwise HSTs would end up being a bad choice for ScotRail.

Wabtec delivered the first GWR set way back in March after having the vehicles for nearly a year before that, they've had every chance to recover and haven't.

 

[sprinterguy]

Wabtec delivered the first set way back in March after having the vehicles for nearly a year before that, they've had every chance to recover and haven't.

And the first refurbished set was delivered to Scotrail in late August, after Wabtec had also had those vehicles for basically a year. The delivery schedule is unrecoverable against the original plan at this stage, and even against the intention to have all trains in passenger service in May 2019 unless Wabtec suddenly start turning out sets at the rate of one a week!

 

[mcmad]

I agree. Wabtec have utterly failed to deliver on this.

Don't think the blame can be pinned fully on wabtec. Scotrail were well aware of the potential issues with the mk3's but pressed on regardless.

 

[Class37.4]

The franchise agreement shows all 27 HST sets in use by December 18 and given there is no news of set 2 arriving any time soon then I'm not sure how only delivering 1 set in the time 27 were planned is anything but a failure. The same table shows 10 156, 8 158 and 34 170 units leaving between December 17 and 18. The 314's were meant to be down to the last few units by now with the 385 fleet up to 57 sets.

Is even 10 'classic' HST sets enough for December change?

Except only 16 x 170 are leaving, 13 are being kept for additional growth, and they still have 5 that were originally meant to go to Southern. Northern are only down to to take 5 x 156 so the other 5 may stay with Scotrail for the moment. Then you have completion of Shotts electrification next year so I'm not so sure that Scotrail rolling stock situation as desperate as some people make out.

 

[Northhighland]

Except only 16 x 170 are leaving, 13 are being kept for additional growth, and they still have 5 that were originally meant to go to Southern. Northern are only down to to take 5 x 156 so the other 5 may stay with Scotrail for the moment. Then you have completion of Shotts electrification next year so I'm not so sure that Scotrail rolling stock situation as desperate as some people make out.

Ok so they might manage to continue to deliver the inadequate service they do at present. Not exactly what they promised though. Many regular passengers totally sick of the overcrowding and poor service.

 

[Northhighland]

I disagree - there were plenty in the industry who thought it was crazy, and figured something like this would happen.



Nope. The last set was meant to be completed by next month, so we should have 26 sets - so far we have one. That's a pretty major failure.



But it's too late for that to happen now, unless they miraculously deliver 25 sets in a month.

They were a bad choice.

You know you can be right without being so right. Hindsight is 2020 vision, the refurbished set is a good train perfectly suitable for the service. We do not know why Wabtec are such a disaster. I strongly suspect corrosion might be a part of it but the real reason for abysmal performance is a much wider problem with resourcing and capacity. even if you have to cut off the whole end of the coach and fabricate a new one it could have been done by now. there is more to this than we know. Amazing our ineffective MSP's are not questioning this.

 

[Class37.4]

Ok so they might manage to continue to deliver the inadequate service they do at present. Not exactly what they promised though. Many regular passengers totally sick of the overcrowding and poor service.

That’s no different to many other franchises to be honest. Yes it’s not ideal by wabtec shambolic delivery is not really ScotRail fault.

Suggestions Scotrail may be looking at D230 for some shorter routes which if vivrail can deliver fairly quickly could free up sprinters to relive the situation.

What else do you suggest they do? Spare diesel stock that isn’t out of the ark, PRM compliant and no Toilet dump is in short supply, 185 which has been suggested assuming they are actually available at some which I am not convinced will actually happen, I doubt TPE will inclined to release any 185 until at least half it’s its new fleet of loco/802s is delivered so you probably talking at least end of 2019.