Weatherproofing the railway

[Bantamzen]

I just cannot understand how someone can insist that nothing has changed. You say you are not a denier, but think that this weather is normal. Yes, there have been occasional extremes of weather, but what is happening now is relentless, barely any interval between one thing an another, be it extreme heat, rainfall or whatever.

Seriously? We live in the UK, a country known for it's bad weather. There have been plenty of occasions when its been as bad, and worse than this.

Of course the railway can't be isolated from it, it's only you putting up the straw man of enclosing the network. I simply said get the track drainage restored and maybe the track raised a bit where it is practicable, others have suggested a few more worthwhile actions, all taken together would probably mitigate 50 to 70% of potential failures. What's wrong with that?

Nothing, but it still won't stop the weather affecting the railways.

 

[Class 317]

Most if not all would agree that it is possible, whether it is affordable, or the right way to spend the huge sums required, is another thing!

I'm not sure it would be huge sums if done as part of a rolling programme to make the railway more resilient tied into existing asset replacement programmes would be minimal but the benefits quite high.

As an example take a resignalling scheme and raising a signalling cabinet a couple of feet higher during resignalling to be above potential flood levels. Given the signalling cabinets are all likely being replaced anyway the extra cost of building a higher base is likely to be very low.

Whilst this would not allow trains to operate through all floods it certainly reduces the recovery time once waters receed.

 

[Ken H]

I'm not sure it would be huge sums if done as part of a rolling programme to make the railway more resilient tied into existing asset replacement programmes would be minimal but the benefits quite high.

As an example take a resignalling scheme and raising a signalling cabinet a couple of feet higher during resignalling to be above potential flood levels. Given the signalling cabinets are all likely being replaced anyway the extra cost of building a higher base is likely to be very low.

Whilst this would not allow trains to operate through all floods it certainly reduces the recovery time once waters receed.

It would be interesting to see the number of delay minutes due to weather due to each type of weather event. We could then have a meaningful discussion about what fixes the railway could put in, and how to target where you get the best bang for your buck. And whether fixing something non weather related would give a better return.

 

[greyman42]

We are protected from the worst of climatic extremes by the fact that we are surrounded by sea, but you have a short memory. See

One year on from record-breaking 40 degrees heat in the UK and we’re still not prepared - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment

Candice Howarth explains why the UK is not prepared for the increased incidence of extreme heat caused by climate change and what needs to change.

www.lse.ac.uk

I'm sure @Bantamzen will just dismiss this as yet more media-exacerbated climate hysteria, or scientists hyping things up to get more funding, but I can see it or its consequences every year in my gardening and beekeeping.
Also the frequency of these extreme events is completely unlike anything we have seen in the past. The odd extreme might be what you would expect, but the succession we are getting every year seems to be relentless, both in summer and winter nowadays.

The temperatures touched 40 degrees in some parts of the country in July 2022. This was a one off and had not happened regularly before or since unfortunately, as i enjoyed the hot weather.
I see no evidence that these temperatures are likely to be repeated on a regular basis so it would be a waste of money trying to increase the networks resilience to one off events.

 

[Falcon1200]

As an example take a resignalling scheme and raising a signalling cabinet a couple of feet higher during resignalling to be above potential flood levels.

Sensible indeed, and such things have already been done at some flood-prone areas, north of Carlisle and south of Carlisle for example.

 

[Class 317]

The temperatures touched 40 degrees in some parts of the country in July 2022. This was a one off and had not happened regularly before or since unfortunately, as i enjoyed the hot weather.
I see no evidence that these temperatures are likely to be repeated on a regular basis so it would be a waste of money trying to increase the networks resilience to one off events.

But will they be one off events? The scientific consensus suggests otherwise and that these heat events will become more regular in the future.

It would be a mistake not to plan more resilient infrastructure to cope with these especially when the extra cost of incorporating the works into existing upgrades and renewals would be small.

 

[edwin_m]

But will they be one off events? The scientific consensus suggests otherwise and that these heat events will become more regular in the future.

Although lacking the extreme heat in the UK seen in 2022, 2023 appears to have been the hottest year ever on average across the globe. The very fact that extremes of temperature have occurred that haven't been seen in recorded history suggests that something has changed to make that possible, and will continue to do so. Whether people believe the cause is CO2 from human activity or something else, there is still a need to do something to reduce the effects.

 

[Starmill]

Although lacking the extreme heat in the UK seen in 2022, 2023 appears to have been the hottest year ever on average across the globe. The very fact that extremes of temperature have occurred that haven't been seen in recorded history suggests that something has changed to make that possible, and will continue to do so. Whether people believe the cause is CO2 from human activity or something else, there is still a need to do something to reduce the effects.

I guess it's just one of those things humans are not disposed to understand so easily; global-scale risk and probability are very counter-intuative to our evolutionary biology, so we have to overcome a big constraint with data and rigorous scientific assessment.

But, as you say, the clear conclusion of that rigorous assessment, based now on adequate data, is that risk from storms, both through their intensity and their frequency, is increased already, and will increase further in the coming years, as a result of humanity's atmospheric CO2e emissions. Doesn't mean there wasn't already risk in the past, or that any one storm event could be causally linked to human-induced climate breakdown. And as you say the climate data is all there about the risk and the forecasts are remarkably accurate. The need to be prepared is foreseeable, regardless of the precise mechanisms of change.

 

[renegademaster]

and anyone with common sense or environmental awareness, or any gardener, can see that it is happening now.

You really have got your head in the sand, haven't you? If you can't see how much more extreme our weather events have become you need to take out your earplugs and remove the blindfold. It's (just) possible that annual averages aren't moving much - although most data says that they are - but extremes of heat and cold, drought and rainfall are undeniable.

The consequences of maintainance holidays (or go-slows) are already showing now, and the best we can hope for is a safe - if disrupted - railway. NR acknowledges that in their public statements. Expect unreliable travel, it's what you get with a fail-safe railway when things start falling apart.

I think that the thread title and premise is quite reasonable and (if there was any government commitment to maintaining and developing our public transport infrastructure, or to decarbonising, or even to underpinning society for the obvious near-term future) my answer would be "Prepare now for what is coming, and try to catch up with neglected maintainance, plus do the upgrades which should have been done before now."
It won't be cheap (catching up never is) and it will mean employing people but at least that would mean money going into the economy...

The storm we just had that caused lots of disruption was hardly unprecedented and our infrastructure really should have been more resilient than it was. 10 years ago when our infrastructure was in a much better state than it was now, it would not have been much an issue

 

[greyman42]

But will they be one off events? The scientific consensus suggests otherwise and that these heat events will become more regular in the future.

Yes the extreme heat of 2022 in the UK was what we would class as a one off. Unfortunately we are very unlikely to see it repeated on anything like a regular basis. It did not happen last summer and it will not be happening this summer.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Jan 2024 ==

The storm we just had that caused lots of disruption was hardly unprecedented and our infrastructure really should have been more resilient than it was. 10 years ago when our infrastructure was in a much better state than it was now, it would not have been much an issue

My thoughts as well.

 

[edwin_m]

10 years ago when our infrastructure was in a much better state than it was now, it would not have been much an issue

Not so sure about that, at least for earthworks. Most of these have had very little done to them since Victorian times and even the neglect of vegetation management goes back several decades.

 

[Class 317]

The Extreme heat will be back and be back increasingly often. All the predictions are that temperatures in the very high 30's and low 40's are highly likely to reoccur on a regular basis over the next couple of decades.

If we don't incorporate resilience to these into renewal and upgrade schemes now the cost of coping with these conditions in the future will rise.

 

[renegademaster]

Do Spanish trains function in their frequent bouts of 40c heat? I don't think we should just throw up our hands in defeat now considering theirs countries with extreme weather right now that have functioning trains.

I'm sure Scandinavia gets its electrified lines battered with gales the ECML can't cope with on a regular basis

 

[Silenos]

Do Spanish trains function in their frequent bouts of 40c heat? I don't think we should just throw up our hands in defeat now considering theirs countries with extreme weather right now that have functioning trains.

I'm sure Scandinavia gets its electrified lines battered with gales the ECML can't cope with on a regular basis

Ah, you are forgetting the number one rule of RailForums debate: Britain is ALWAYS a special case due to its history/geography/climate/politics/culture/demographics (delete as appropriate) and therefore never has anything to learn from examples abroad.

 

[Howardh]

On the plus side, when we had heatwaves in the early 2000's speed on main lines was capped to around 60mph, and despite record temperatures recently, I'm unaware of any such limits - there might have been (??). Are rails constructed now that temperature isn't an issue?

 

[stuu]

On the plus side, when we had heatwaves in the early 2000's speed on main lines was capped to around 60mph, and despite record temperatures recently, I'm unaware of any such limits - there might have been (??). Are rails constructed now that temperature isn't an issue?

Heat related speed limits are absolutely a thing. Some of them were down to 20mph in 2022 IIRC.

See this thread for discussion, explanation, denial etc

Weather disruption Sunday 17th July and following few days

The problem with that is that rails are stressed for a temperature range, and if the upper temperatures are increased, the lower ones have to be increased too, so you lose resilience in winter instead. Countries where 40is 'normal tend to have warmer winters than we do. Or you do what...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[Howardh]

Heat related speed limits are absolutely a thing. Some of them were down to 20mph in 2022 IIRC

Thanks, when I travelled I must have been lucky on the WCML, unless I didn't notice restrictions! Particularly the Sept heatwave when I travelled right in the middle of it!

 

[Ken H]

Thanks, when I travelled I must have been lucky on the WCML, unless I didn't notice restrictions! Particularly the Sept heatwave when I travelled right in the middle of it!

And then there was the long hot summer of 1976. How did we cope then?

 

[renegademaster]

I remember during the worst of the 2022 heatwave was that luton ended up shut down because of the heat. My flight home to Gatwick was fine, except the train was very busy(but perfectly functional) back home

 

[Starmill]

And then there was the long hot summer of 1976. How did we cope then?

The safety of staff at work and the public in public places has certainly improved a lot since 1976. Is that not a good thing?

 

[Ken H]

The safety of staff at work and the public in public places has certainly improved a lot since 1976. Is that not a good thing?

So lets quantify that and perhaps we can then say things havent got worse, the safety regime has changed.

 

[Tetchytyke]

And then there was the long hot summer of 1976. How did we cope then?

The heatwave of 1976 peaked at 35.9C, although 1976 is still a record-holder for duration. The 2022 heatwave, by comparison, peaked at 40.3C.

Yes the extreme heat of 2022 in the UK was what we would class as a one off. Unfortunately we are very unlikely to see it repeated on anything like a regular basis.

It wasn't a one-off. It happens regularly. The UK had temperatures of 38.7C in 2019, 37.8C in 2020, and the Northern Ireland record heat temperature was set in 2021.

The hottest day of 1976 isn't even in the top ten.

The evidence is that summers are getting hotter and winters are getting wetter.

 

[RT4038]

The heatwave of 1976 peaked at 35.9C, although 1976 is still a record-holder for duration. The 2022 heatwave, by comparison, peaked at 40.3C.



It wasn't a one-off. It happens regularly. The UK had temperatures of 38.7C in 2019, 37.8C in 2020, and the Northern Ireland record heat temperature was set in 2021.

The hottest day of 1976 isn't even in the top ten.

The evidence is that summers are getting hotter and winters are getting wetter.

I recall @Bald Rick posting that the issue is not so much the extremes of temperature, but the range over which the rail stress temperature moves. If the maximum is moved up then the minimum is also and we would be in trouble when a particularly cold snap occurs. Not too sure what happens on those lines in Canada and Russia where the temperature range is possibly much higher than ours - probably more maintenance required, and lower speeds anyway??

 

[WelshBluebird]

The storm we just had that caused lots of disruption was hardly unprecedented and our infrastructure really should have been more resilient than it was. 10 years ago when our infrastructure was in a much better state than it was now, it would not have been much an issue

There are two things to consider:

1. Whilst we probably haven't seen the full effects of it yet, I think we are starting to see some of the things that can happen when you have an industry / government who wants to cut costs and "increase efficiency" when it comes to infrastructure maintenance and renewals.
2. Storms which we usually can deal with can still cause issues if they occur at a higher frequency on top of a general increase in wet and windy weather (which is what we have seen).

Do Spanish trains function in their frequent bouts of 40c heat? I don't think we should just throw up our hands in defeat now considering theirs countries with extreme weather right now that have functioning trains. I'm sure Scandinavia gets its electrified lines battered with gales the ECML can't cope with on a regular basis

Except you've answered that yourself.
Spain doesn't have to deal with the winter weather we get, and Scandinavia doesn't have to deal with the summer weather we get.

That is essentially one of the main reasons why we seen to deal with the extremes of either side worse than other countries - because we have to deal with either side! The countries people often use as examples of "how to do it right" generally only have to deal with one of the extremes so can build specifically to deal with that (at the expense of them not being able to handle the other extreme anywhere near as well as we can still do).

 

[renegademaster]

Except you've answered that yourself.
Spain doesn't have to deal with the winter weather we get, and Scandinavia doesn't have to deal with the summer weather we get.

USA/Canada , Russia and a lot of continental Europe does. Not cheaping out on overhead wires and actually maintaining the trackside is not something contradicts with dealing with heat related problems

 

[jon0844]

We're on storm 'H' (Henk) now and the lettered names only started in September?

At this rate, we might one day get to Z!

 

[AndrewE]

USA/Canada , Russia and a lot of continental Europe does. Not cheaping out on overhead wires and actually maintaining the trackside is not something contradicts with dealing with heat related problems

Actually I think parts of Spain do get extremes, around Madrid it's like a furnace in summer and well below freezing in winter. That's why there is a summer seat of government at San Sebastian/Donostia.
And nobody has said yet, but I think we have been told before that in countries with real extremes they do actually unclip and re-stress the rail twice a year, so that it is still in tension in the summer but let out a bit and re-welded for the winter.

 

[greyman42]

It wasn't a one-off. It happens regularly. The UK had temperatures of 38.7C in 2019, 37.8C in 2020, and the Northern Ireland record heat temperature was set in 2021.

How is that regular? You make it sound like the entire summer of these years were one long heatwave, which they were not, and you fail to mention the previous years that were unremarkable.

 

[edwin_m]

How is that regular? You make it sound like the entire summer of these years were one long heatwave, which they were not, and you fail to mention the previous years that were unremarkable.

"Exceptional" temperatures in three out of five recent years, when nothing similar was occurring a few decades back, sounds like a trend.

 

[Tetchytyke]

How is that regular? You make it sound like the entire summer of these years were one long heatwave, which they were not, and you fail to mention the previous years that were unremarkable.

Seven of the ten hottest UK days on record occurred in the last 20 years. Sounds like a trend to me...