Weather related disruption 31/10

[gazzaa2]

Above is just a snapshot of a few bits I witnessed - not to mention the issues out of Waterloo, Marylebone, Paddington and of course the terrible accident near Salisbury tonight.

All in all a very bad day indeed, and another hammer blow for the railway which, despite many of the circumstances being outwith its control, will doubtless have lost many more to their cars and the motorways moving forward.

Going to keep a close eye on the weather before traveling in future. I do anyway but any signs of heavy rain or storms and i'll likely avoid traveling for leisure anymore. Too high a risk of being left stranded, or the hell of an overcrowded 7 hour journey home.

Maybe train companies should be required to issue 'do not travel' advice on extreme weather days, before the lines go down, if they can't provide contingencies.

 

[al78]

That's only one theory.

Others have differing theories. For example the fact that an ever expanding population inhabits areas that previously were uninhabited, or that greater global connectivity allows us to hear about events we would never have done prior to the Internet, or that building housing estates on green pastures causes massive issues somewhere else during heavy rainfall events where previously the ground could have soaked up much of the rainfall, or that the proliferation of buildings causes much higher resultant wind speeds in proximity to them, etc etc.

Easier to blame it all on climate change though.

Anyway, apologies for the O/T.

The increase in severe rainfall events is not confined to populated/urban areas, so changes in land use is only partly to blame for increased flood risk.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Nov 2021 ==

I don't think yesterday was just a "normal Autumn day", and it almost certainly didn't help that the various weather forecasts seem to have underplayed it.

Did they? The Met Office had amber weather warnings out for Cumbria and yellow warnings covering a much wider area, with forecasts of up to a foot of rain falling on the high ground. That much water has to go somewhere, and that somewhere is funneled into the valleys where primary transport routes and populated areas tend to be located.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Nov 2021 ==

Maybe train companies should be required to issue 'do not travel' advice on extreme weather days, before the lines go down, if they can't provide contingencies.

When severe weather is forecast, there is uncertainty on the forecast, so only a subset of regions in a warning area will get badly affected. If rail lines were shut down on the basis of a severe weather warning, that would work fine in a lot of cases, but those areas which were less badly hit than predicted would have their rail service cancelled unnecessarily, which would not go down well with the public. There have been threads before on here criticising the rail companies advising people not to travel.

 

[gazzaa2]

When severe weather is forecast, there is uncertainty on the forecast, so only a subset of regions in a warning area will get badly affected. If rail lines were shut down on the basis of a severe weather warning, that would work fine in a lot of cases, but those areas which were less badly hit than predicted would have their rail service cancelled unnecessarily, which would not go down well with the public. There have been threads before on here criticising the rail companies advising people not to travel.

Not that they should just shut the lines down but just give the warning and advice regarding extreme weather and the risk of travel. Then the passenger travels at their own risk.

 

[al78]

Not that they should just shut the lines down but just give the warning and advice regarding extreme weather and the risk of travel. Then the passenger travels at their own risk.

Don't they do this now?

 

[dosxuk]

Not that they should just shut the lines down but just give the warning and advice regarding extreme weather and the risk of travel. Then the passenger travels at their own risk.

They do this, then people come on here complaining that they've done it and the weather wasn't as bad as forecast so they ran a full timetable anyway.

 

[gazzaa2]

Don't they do this now?

Did they do it yesterday before the problems occurred?

 

[bramling]

They do this, then people come on here complaining that they've done it and the weather wasn't as bad as forecast so they ran a full timetable anyway.

I don't think "please don't travel unless essential" makes much difference, especially now people seem to feel leisure is far more important to them than work journeys.

I remember the nasty storm a 3 or so years back, which also occurred on a weekend. My local TOC, GTR, put out *plenty* of contingency information, including slimming back to an emergency timetable, accompanied by copious publicity asking people not to travel unless essential. Needless to say, what happened was every London-bound train left Cambridge packed with daytrippers to London, loads of people couldn't get to work because the reduced service meant trains were unboardable, and lots of people eventually ended up getting stuck when the inevitable happened with the OLE. In my experience the "weekend lot" are unfailingly far more arrogant when something does go wrong too. Same at Christmas on the Sunday when it snowed a few years ago, never seen so much abuse from punters simply because they couldn't get to Oxford Street.

Unfortunately, the work culture in this country has, in certain quarters at least, become non existent over recent years, and this isn't just a Covid thing. None of us particularly relish going to work, even those fortunate enough to be in jobs from which they derive enjoyment will have occasions when they would really rather be doing something else. However going to work is what makes the world tick, as none of us is really self-sufficient, and certainly not for providing anything like the living standards we are accustomed do. I can't help but find it regrettable some people seem to disproportionately value their personal leisure pursuits.

 

[30907]

Did they do it yesterday before the problems occurred?

No, because the real damage was done by a weather development in the South Midlands that wasn't forecast.
Avanti took action the previous weekend when there was an amber warning. But the OP didn't like their solution.

 

[modernrail]

Any chance that you can list what these contingency plans should have been,

Yes, very happily! Let me emphasise, it has been known for over a year the WCML would need to do a special job this particular week, so extra contingency would be totally justified. However, the WCML is also a critical artery, so you could easily argue extra contingency is justified at all times compared to other, less critical lines.

Also, the Met Office was very clear on Saturday that Sunday would be, in its words, ‘wet and wild’ down the whole western side of the UK on Sunday.

So here is a list.

- It is Autumn. We get flooding and trees down and we know the exact location can be unpredictable. Flooding needs pumps. Fallen trees need saws. Did NR have teams spread out along the line to react quickly enough? Did they put in extra precautions at known flood sites? To those who say the weather may have been extreme and linked to climate change - perhaps but the actual impact on the WCML was not. It has to deal with flooded lines and downed trees all the time and it was a very localised problem - and so well within normal experience. The line that suffered washed away bridges was a different matter. That area had very slow moving rain - which is a worrying phenomenon for the UK and could cause us big problems here.
- If a tree comes down, the overhead line has probably followed it. Were there sufficient repair teams spread out along the line to get on with a fix as quickly as possible?
- A downed line means electric traction is a problem. Did Avanti arrange for diesels to be ready to drag at least some services and did it ensure it had staff with the best knowledge on diversionary routes available to it?
- When a tree comes down or a flood happens, it tends to affect one small part of the line. Did Avanti have rail replacement buses on stand by? Did they have a plan to curtail trains at either side of the blockage and put a road bridge or diesel train service around the problem until fixed? or did they just send trains down the line with no real plan, accruing massive delays and then when panic reached suitable levels, shove out a do not travel message to a load of people who need to get to an international conference of unbelievable importance.
- Avanti knew they would have lots of people travelling. They sold loads of tickets and certainly didn’t offer any discounts to support the conference. They should have had a massive customer service operation at Euston, in the same style as our amazing Olympic efforts, making sure everybody knew what was going on whilst something was and then being ready to offer support and information when the tree hit the line. Instead they made the station exit only, left those inside with closer to zero information and those outside with even less and utterly perplexed about what to do next.
- Avanti has a website, Twitter, Facebook, all sorts of ways to communicate. It did nothing to help people work out solutions, it just reported problems and washed its hands of responsibility by saying don’t travel…. Because a tree fell down in the wind.
- Did Avanti have spare drivers and staff rostered to make sure the service could be recovered quickly if problems did arise?
- Had Avanti spoken to East Midlands and East Coast about a plan B if the WCML went down? The Midland line remained up, it is perfectly possible to get from St P to Glasgow via numerous routes.
- Did Avanti have a plan to look after the welfare of passengers, many new to the railway or the country, if things dragged on in to the evening? On the basis it apparently happily chucked loads of Mums with small children onto the platform at Preston last night with zero help on what to do next - no.

I also ask again why so many trains were cancelled between Preston and Glasgow on Wednesday to Friday last week when trains were clearly able to run. Trains don’t tend to be the problem in storms, it is damage to the infrastructure that causes the problem. How does last minute but preemptive cancelling of trains on the basis of a weather forecast make it less likely damage to the infrastructure will occur? Run the trains until you start to see actual damage and then bridge the gap. That has been done many times very well when I have suffered storm related delay in the UK and elsewhere but Avanti just seem to have decided they can’t be arsed.

 

[Nova1]

- If a tree comes down, the overhead line has probably followed it. Were there sufficient repair teams spread out along the line to get on with a fix as quickly as possible?

Probably yes. NR will have incident response teams. However just consider the impact that even closing the line for 15 minutes can have on the service. Not to mention that some parts of the WCML will have limited or awkward access to the lineside. It could take teams a very long time to get to sites.

- When a tree comes down or a flood happens, it tends to affect one small part of the line. Did Avanti have rail replacement buses on stand by? Did they have a plan to curtail trains at either side of the blockage and put a road bridge or diesel train service around the problem until fixed? or did they just send trains down the line with no real plan, accruing massive delays and then when panic reached suitable levels, shove out a do not travel message to a load of people who need to get to an international conference of unbelievable importance.

You can't just have buses waiting for *potential* disruption all the way from London to Scotland and including all the other AWC/LNWR destinations. Just think of the cost! Not to mention the sheer number of buses that would be needed to replace the normal amount of people going up and down the WCML. Most trains were stuck in situations where they could not reverse without special working, or told to continue at caution to investigate line damage. It's also difficult to just run trains either side of the blockage. Not all stations can be reversed at, and don't forget the massive displacement of crews.

- A downed line means electric traction is a problem. Did Avanti arrange for diesels to be ready to drag at least some services and did it ensure it had staff with the best knowledge on diversionary routes available to it?

Avanti West Coast only has 20 voyagers, and 56 Pendolinos. This would not work as a contingency plan. In many cases fixing overhead line equipment will also require a line block. many of the WCML diversionary routes also became blocked.

- Avanti knew they would have lots of people travelling. They sold loads of tickets and certainly didn’t offer any discounts to support the conference. They should have had a massive customer service operation at Euston, in the same style as our amazing Olympic efforts, making sure everybody knew what was going on whilst something was and then being ready to offer support and information when the tree hit the line. Instead they made the station exit only, left those inside with closer to zero information and those outside with even less and utterly perplexed about what to do next.

The decision to make the station exit-only was made by Network Rail staff (who manage London Euston station). No amount of staff presence on the concourse could have solved any of the line problems. What do you want the staff to even do? All they'd be doing is repeating information already relayed via social media, information boards and announcements.

- Avanti has a website, Twitter, Facebook, all sorts of ways to communicate. It did nothing to help people work out solutions, it just reported problems and washed its hands of responsibility by saying don’t travel…. Because a tree fell down in the wind.

The disruption was a bit more than "a tree fell down in the wind", and I think this is clear you don't understand this in most of your points. Again, what can the people on social media even suggest except just relay the only information they've got?

- Did Avanti have spare drivers and staff rostered to make sure the service could be recovered quickly if problems did arise?

Can't recover a service when you can't even run it because the line is blocked. Extra train crew would have ended up spending all day twiddling their thumbs.

- Had Avanti spoken to East Midlands and East Coast about a plan B if the WCML went down? The Midland line remained up, it is perfectly possible to get from St P to Glasgow via numerous routes.

Ticket acceptance had been agreed with LNER but this was withdrawn when the ECML started having its own issues. LNER had to issue a Do Not Travel warning through the day.
Ticket acceptance had been agreed with Chiltern Railways between London and Birmingham, but this quickly developed into chiltern services and marylebone station becoming a mess as a huge amount of WCML stragglers made their way over there boarding off-peak commuter services with two car 168s...
XC were asked if they'd accept tickets but the decision was made not to due to XC having their own disruption across the network and many of their services already being full and standing.
EMR in a similar way have also been having their own larger problems with general capacity on their trains. It would have been unwise for them to accept tickets when they didn't have capacity to take any extra passengers.
Do not forget the entire network yesterday was having severe issues. Ticket acceptance can't always solve the problem.

- Did Avanti have a plan to look after the welfare of passengers, many new to the railway or the country, if things dragged on in to the evening? On the basis it apparently happily chucked loads of Mums with small children onto the platform at Preston last night with zero help on what to do next - no.

In a situation like this it's almost impossible for a train company to look after every single person. The best they can do is just say "try and sort yourself out and we'll refund you for it later".

 

[al78]

Reading some of the posts on this thread and recalling similar threads following storm related disruption, it appears to me that the rail network happens to be very vulnerable to damage and obstructions from flooding or downed trees, and there isn't much anyone can do about it. There are a handful of primary routes (e.g. ECML, WCML) and if they get blocked, you can't easily divert trains around the blockage, if at all. It is not like the road network which is much denser and drivers can easily divert around a road closure. It is not clear how this could be resolved, at least without a lot of engineering, time and money. Even if there were extra main lines running from London to Scotland, that wouldn't make things much better because in northern England, topography limits where rail lines can be built, and windstorms and flooding can affect a large swathe of the country knocking out multiple primary routes. Using deterministic and probabilistic weather forecasts and warning of disruption in advance seems to be the best that can be done.

Once you have hundreds or thousands of people who can't get where they want to go because of a line blockage, again, it is not obvious to me there is a silver bullet that can solve everything. If trains can't run, they can't run, and replacement buses have very limited capacity, so it seems to me to be an unsolvable problem. Maybe we all just have to accept that despite our temperate climate, destructive weather does occasionally occur, damage/disruption will result, and we all have to do our best to get through it.

This isn't anything new. Here is a clip from a news report following the Burns day storm in January 1990 which shows major disruption to rail services in London from around 2:35:

This example from windstorm Ciara in February 2020, 1:20:

 

[Falcon1200]

Did NR have teams spread out along the line to react quickly enough? Did they put in extra precautions at known flood sites?

If a tree comes down, the overhead line has probably followed it. Were there sufficient repair teams spread out along the line to get on with a fix as quickly as possible?

Euston-Glasgow via the WCML is just over 400 miles. Whereabouts exactly would these teams be spread out ? After all, as you say 'the Met Office was very clear on Saturday that Sunday would be, in its words, ‘wet and wild’ down the whole western side of the UK on Sunday'.

When a tree comes down or a flood happens, it tends to affect one small part of the line. Did Avanti have rail replacement buses on stand by? Did they have a plan to curtail trains at either side of the blockage and put a road bridge or diesel train service around the problem until fixed?

Euston-Glasgow via the WCML is just over 400 miles. Whereabouts exactly would these rail replacement buses, or diesel trains, be stationed ? (Not to mention where the buses and their drivers, and diesel trains and their crews, would come from, nor that if trees are blocking the line and the wires are down, diesel trains won't get through either). And, regarding buses, part of the M6 was closed due to wind damage to an overhead gantry !

Had Avanti spoken to East Midlands and East Coast about a plan B if the WCML went down? The Midland line remained up, it is perfectly possible to get from St P to Glasgow via numerous routes.

All of which require suitable trains, and Traincrew with route knowledge. Again, from where ?

I also ask again why so many trains were cancelled between Preston and Glasgow on Wednesday to Friday last week when trains were clearly able to run. Trains don’t tend to be the problem in storms, it is damage to the infrastructure that causes the problem.

Due to the heavy rain forecast, which did indeed occur, precautionary speed restrictions were imposed. These lengthened journey times such that the service had to be reduced. Avanti took the correct decision to maintain, as far as possible, a normal service south of Preston, thus ensuring that fewer passengers were affected. The flooding which occurred shows that the speed restrictions were indeed absolutely right and necessary.

How does last minute but preemptive cancelling of trains on the basis of a weather forecast make it less likely damage to the infrastructure will occur? Run the trains until you start to see actual damage and then bridge the gap.

It does not make damage to the infrastructure less likely, what it does is ensure that any such damage does not result in catastrophic consequences such as at Stonehaven last year. But what you appear to be saying is that, despite all the rail industry's knowledge and (sometimes bitter) experience, they should ignore severe weather forecasts, continue running a full service of trains at line speed and hope for the best - Seriously ?

 

[bramling]

Reading some of the posts on this thread and recalling similar threads following storm related disruption, it appears to me that the rail network happens to be very vulnerable to damage and obstructions from flooding or downed trees, and there isn't much anyone can do about it. There are a handful of primary routes (e.g. ECML, WCML) and if they get blocked, you can't easily divert trains around the blockage, if at all. It is not like the road network which is much denser and drivers can easily divert around a road closure. It is not clear how this could be resolved, at least without a lot of engineering, time and money. Even if there were extra main lines running from London to Scotland, that wouldn't make things much better because in northern England, topography limits where rail lines can be built, and windstorms and flooding can affect a large swathe of the country knocking out multiple primary routes. Using deterministic and probabilistic weather forecasts and warning of disruption in advance seems to be the best that can be done.

Once you have hundreds or thousands of people who can't get where they want to go because of a line blockage, again, it is not obvious to me there is a silver bullet that can solve everything. If trains can't run, they can't run, and replacement buses have very limited capacity, so it seems to me to be an unsolvable problem. Maybe we all just have to accept that despite our temperate climate, destructive weather does occasionally occur, damage/disruption will result, and we all have to do our best to get through it.

This isn't anything new. Here is a clip from a news report following the Burns day storm in January 1990 which shows major disruption to rail services in London from around 2:35:

A very thoughtful post, and much as all of us like to see the railway running during all weathers, realistically we can't always win the battle with nature.

Having diversionary routes isn't all that helpful, as if one route gets blocked then chances are so will the diversionary route, then there's the question of whether it's really sensible to be pushing trains around during such conditions. We saw what can happen last year when something goes wrong.

We have to be realistic.

 

[aar0]

And I thought Friday night's closure of the Severn Tunnel due to flooding cause enough chaos!!

Closed again tonight!

 

[Vespa]

My TPE had to go slow instead of its usual speed this morning ino doubt because of the weather and flood risk.

Its not just WCML that's affected.

 

[30907]

Also, the Met Office was very clear on Saturday that Sunday would be, in its words, ‘wet and wild’ down the whole western side of the UK on Sunday.

But the yellow (not amber) warning did not cover the area where the major problems occurred.

- Had Avanti spoken to East Midlands and East Coast about a plan B if the WCML went down?

Almost certainly

The Midland line remained up,

sort of, but it doesn't have huge capacity

I also ask again why so many trains were cancelled between Preston and Glasgow on Wednesday to Friday last week when trains were clearly able to run.

They were clearly able to run at reduced speed. A sensible precaution insisted on by NR (and in several other countries BTW) when high winds and heavy rain are forecast in certain areas, to stop trains running into landslips/fallen trees and reduce the risk of dewirements, all of which have potentially nasty consequences.
Basically, if you are running at half speed, you can only run half the trains because they take twice as long.

 

[Bald Rick]

Absolutely shocking failure of management by Avanti this week. Unbelievable lack of contingency planning when playing such a vital role in one of the most important international conferences this country has ever held. The serious apathy that has creeped in to service provision around major events needs to stop. When you have a big event to cater for, you have lots of contingency planning. If you can’t do your job, step aside please. What were the contingency plans this week exactly and why were they not implemented?

Avanti cancelled loads of trains at the end of last week, cutting Glasgow off. I cycled through that area and across the West Coast Main Line with a group of 150 riders some of whom did the whole thing from London. I joined from Preston. Lots and lots of trains cancelled but some ran… so I assume the line was clear. Result - absolute chaos for passengers. So, question number 1. Was the WCML down Wednesday to Friday or did Avanti cancel loads of trains without just cause, cutting Western Scotland off just before COP26.

We get Autumn rain every year. We managed to get 150 riders from Preston to Glasgow through the weather perfectly easily. Yes it was heavy for a few periods but it was in no way one of the severe weather events you might link to climate change. It was Autumn. The area that did get it a bit harder was over in Dumfries but that was very localised. Even then, the locals in Dumfries told us it really wasn’t exceptional and they get that twice a year every year. I cycled over Shap at the same time the line was closed to passengers on Thursday and there were freight trains happily using the line. Why were so so many passenger trains cancelled?

Then we have yesterday. Some trees came down in Autumn. That happens every single year and so the chances of it happening on the 31st October are high. Further confirmed by a weather forecast. Avanti knew it’s job yesterday was to get lots of guests that we invited to this country to Glasgow. How on earth did it get to a point where it’s response was to shrug its shoulders, provide a shocking lack of information and treat passengers with uttter contempt. Other routes and lines were open. Whilst I would not expect every train company to fire up diversionary routes and alternative transport and massive customer serve teams on the ground quickly on every single day of the year, I absolutely would expect Avanti to be ready to do that yesterday.

Avanti left thousands of people stranded yesterday along its whole route. A hotel room is Glasgow was already averaging £500 minimum last night before the disruption hit. They literally left thousands of guests to our country and thousands of regular passengers with no information and no plan. From our small group we have about 20 stories of shocking unprofessional and unplanned nonsense involving Avanti over the last week. A group travelling to Southampton from Glasgow last night were turfed off at Preston late into the night and told, sorry - make your own way from here. Who does that? When I had a parallel situation in Germany DB offered every single passenger accommodation and booked them on to a new train the next morning. You don’t throw passengers off a train late at night without looking after them on a very basic level.

If the current management of Avanti is not able to plan for anything other than perfect conditions, it needs to step aside so that some proper railway professionals who also give a toss about passengers and at another level just their fellow humans, can take their place. I use trains every day, to get everywhere and have seen it all. The railway is full of good and bad. Yesterday and the latter part of last week was an absolute disgrace.

I also assume moral is low at Avanti for staff to have become so rude. There are always rude staff on the railways, but more often really nice and helpful people. The attitude and manner of staff at Euston station this week has become legendary. A visitor from Austria told me they have simply never been spoken to in such a rude way when asking a few simple questions and asked if this is ‘normal communication style’ in the UK. I had to interrupt a 10 minute conversation between two staff members who did not seem remotely interested in the pile of people trying to work out what they should do. When somebody finally managed to ask if there was a problem with trains going north of Preston, they were told ‘apparently but you will need to ask somebody’ and then back to their conversation. They were the gate line staff for a Glasgow train than has just been curtailed to Preston!!!!

I really hoped we might be able to be proud of our railways this weekend. The weather meant that some disruption was inevitable, but the version of disruption dished out by Avanti this week has been absolutely embarrassing and I hope the management of Avanti and those on the ground who didn’t know what they were doing or how to do it are embarrassed.

Quite a rant. Ill informed. The worst type.

Did NR have teams spread out along the line to react quickly enough? Did they put in extra precautions at known flood sites? To those who say the weather may have been extreme and linked to climate change - perhaps but the actual impact on the WCML was not. It has to deal with flooded lines and downed trees all the time and it was a very localised problem - and so well within normal experience. The line that suffered washed away bridges was a different matter. That area had very slow moving rain - which is a worrying phenomenon for the UK and could cause us big problems here.
- If a tree comes down, the overhead line has probably followed it. Were there sufficient repair teams spread out along the line to get on with a fix as quickly as possible?

I can tell you that extra precautions were taken, and all available staff were on hand to respond. And did so quickly. You don’t want them ‘spread along’ the line, you want concentrated teams of special resource, as rarely is a severe weather incident able to be dealt with by one member of staff.

FYI, when the wires come down in high winds, it is not safe to put them up again until the winds subside.

The Midland line remained up

It didn’t. That was shut at Kettering. Wires down in high winds.

 

[modernrail]

But the yellow (not amber) warning did not cover the area where the major problems occurred.

Almost certainly

sort of, but it doesn't have huge capacity


They were clearly able to run at reduced speed. A sensible precaution insisted on by NR (and in several other countries BTW) when high winds and heavy rain are forecast in certain areas, to stop trains running into landslips/fallen trees and reduce the risk of dewirements, all of which have potentially nasty consequences.
Basically, if you are running at half speed, you can only run half the trains because they take twice as long.

They were not running half as many trains, it was less than this and the information provided on why and what to do about it was dreadful.

As for yesterday, where else did the WCML have problems other than a downed tree and power line in the Midlands? I ask that as a genuine question. If there really were multiple incidents along the line it wasn’t particularly reported.

Those suggesting having fleets of buses literally at every station ready to go is what is meant by contingency obviously don’t understand how the railway makes arrangements to get fleets of buses in during times of disruption. I have been in multiple similar situations in the UK where Virgin managed to get buses in relatively quickly in exactly these types of scenario.

Those who don’t think staff on the ground when we are hosting major events and there is a risk of disruption are incredible in their naivety and should definitely not be involved in the hosting of major events.

It looks like whoever is running entry into the Blue zone is making as big a screw up today as Avanti made yesterday. 3 hour queues in the rain for visiting diplomats. No doubt that is all fine as well and there are just lots of very specific and very good reasons why the UK is so utterly shambolic at this stuff.

 

[londonmidland]

As for yesterday, where else did the WCML have problems other than a downed tree and power line in the Midlands? I ask that as a genuine question. If there really were multiple incidents along the line it wasn’t particularly reported.

From what I saw, there were multiple incidents up and down the WCML on Sunday. National Rail Enquiries certainly did a poor job at reporting this, as initially the only thing they were saying was signalling problems between Rugby and Milton Keynes Central. At this time, they should've activated the red 'major disruption' expected message, as delays and cancellations were mounting up. Avanti certainly did do a better job at getting the message out, in my opinion.

From what I remember seeing, there were multiple incidents on the WCML. Including track circuit failures, no power to the overheads/tripping out, overhead wires damaged caused by trees and branches falling on them, flooding and small landslips in places.

The diversionary route via Northampton was open for a small period but that too was blocked after a short while.

Between Preston and Carlisle there were multiple areas which had problems with flooding. Whilst one area seemed to have subsided in water levels, another area quickly had issues with flooding.

So long story short, it wasn't just a downed tree in the Midlands. It was a very unfortunate day with several events unfolding.

 

[6Gman]

They were not running half as many trains, it was less than this and the information provided on why and what to do about it was dreadful.

As for yesterday, where else did the WCML have problems other than a downed tree and power line in the Midlands? I ask that as a genuine question. If there really were multiple incidents along the line it wasn’t particularly reported.

Those suggesting having fleets of buses literally at every station ready to go is what is meant by contingency obviously don’t understand how the railway makes arrangements to get fleets of buses in during times of disruption. I have been in multiple similar situations in the UK where Virgin managed to get buses in relatively quickly in exactly these types of scenario.

Those who don’t think staff on the ground when we are hosting major events and there is a risk of disruption are incredible in their naivety and should definitely not be involved in the hosting of major events.

It looks like whoever is running entry into the Blue zone is making as big a screw up today as Avanti made yesterday. 3 hour queues in the rain for visiting diplomats. No doubt that is all fine as well and there are just lots of very specific and very good reasons why the UK is so utterly shambolic at this stuff.

So Avanti should draft in staff (who? from where?) because Johnson is having a vanity event in Glasgow?

And on the point of rail replacement buses I would just point out that bus driver shortages are running at 6% (twice the usual average) (source Confederation of Passenger Transport). And two specific points regarding Sunday 31st October. Half-term was last week in many areas so many coach drivers would have been returning to normal duties this morning and may therefore have been unavailable for work (given the requirements of drivers hours). And the owners of said coaches may have looked out of the window at the debris flying around and said "I'll be keeping the coaches in the yard today thank you".

 

[modernrail]

A genuinely interesting point is that the mood of this forum appears to be that these are unusual weather events and that the UK railway industry is not capable within currently available resources of setting up the day to day running of the railway so it can ‘get around’ these localised effects by anything other than a full shut down of the lines.

We have now had multiple year on year multi-day closures of the WCML into Scotland. Much less so on the East side from recollection. That would fit with the west side getting more rain. We also appear to have a massive increase in the number of land slips and just the threat of this is now causing trains to run at caution and massively reduce capacity. This is adding up to an awful lot of days of disruption.

All if this constant uncertainty mixed with that amazing ‘not my fault mate it’s the weather’ attitude, makes for a really unappealing railway.

I sold my car years ago, use a bike in London and use the train for everything else. I did that because I believed the science rather earlier than most of the rest of the country could be bothered to. Instead of that feeling like a good decision I feel far more often like a mug who pays silly amounts for tickets, gets treated to the Euston school of customer service far too often and is faced with defeatism at every turn when suggesting we can do better. we obviously can do better, if people on here don’t think so, so be it and that probably speaks to a lot of the problem.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Nov 2021 ==

From what I saw, there were multiple incidents up and down the WCML on Sunday. National Rail Enquiries certainly did a poor job at reporting this, as initially the only thing they were saying was signalling problems between Rugby and Milton Keynes Central. At this time, they should've activated the red 'major disruption' expected message, as delays and cancellations were mounting up. Avanti certainly did do a better job at getting the message out, in my opinion.

From what I remember seeing, there were multiple incidents on the WCML. Including track circuit failures, no power to the overheads/tripping out, overhead wires damaged caused by trees and branches falling on them, flooding and small landslips in places.

The diversionary route via Northampton was open for a small period but that too was blocked after a short while.

Between Preston and Carlisle there were multiple areas which had problems with flooding. Whilst one area seemed to have subsided in water levels, another area quickly had issues with flooding.

So long story short, it wasn't just a downed tree in the Midlands. It was a very unfortunate day with several events unfolding.

If that was the extent of the problems, a whole line closure was probably inevitable. The problem then becomes one of customer service and customer care, and I mean care. A civilised society does not throw people off a train at night in the middle of a storm it could not handle, including many visitors to the country and not go the extra mile and a few miles after that to make sure everyone is okay and knows how sorry everyone is that all this has happened.

 

[6Gman]

A genuinely interesting point is that the mood of this forum appears to be that these are unusual weather events and that the UK railway industry is not capable within currently available resources of setting up the day to day running of the railway so it can ‘get around’ these localised effects by anything other than a full shut down of the lines.

We have now had multiple year on year multi-day closures of the WCML into Scotland. Much less so on the East side from recollection. That would fit with the west side getting more rain. We also appear to have a massive increase in the number of land slips and just the threat of this is now causing trains to run at caution and massively reduce capacity. This is adding up to an awful lot of days of disruption.

All if this constant uncertainty mixed with that amazing ‘not my fault mate it’s the weather’ attitude, makes for a really unappealing railway.

I sold my car years ago, use a bike in London and use the train for everything else. I did that because I believed the science rather earlier than most of the rest of the country could be bothered to. Instead of that feeling like a good decision I feel far more often like a mug who pays silly amounts for tickets, gets treated to the Euston school of customer service far too often and is faced with defeatism at every turn when suggesting we can do better. we obviously can do better, if people on here don’t think so, so be it and that probably speaks to a lot of the problem.

That's the railway "society" has chosen to have. We could cut down a few million trees, ban the ownership of garden trampolines within 800 metres of a railway line, employ teams of "just in case" overhead line engineers (though however many you have they can't crack on until it's safe to do so), spend a few billion on drainage schemes for a robust railway etc. etc. But "society" has chosen not to.

We also have a society which has grown increasingly risk averse. So reducing line speeds because of "just the threat" of land slips (or fallen trees) has become the norm. We could insist on reversing that caution but at the risk of courting accidents.

Simply shouting "it should be done better" without suggesting how is not helpful.

 

[Fokx]

I feel far more often like a mug who pays silly amounts for ticketsl

Then just wait and see the eye watering amounts those tickets would cost with your proposals for levels of staffing, rail replacement buses ‘just in case’ and the amount of traincrew you’ll need just sat around waiting for weather related disruption

 

[liam456]

Instead of that feeling like a good decision I feel far more often like a mug who pays silly amounts for tickets, gets treated to the Euston school of customer service far too often and is faced with defeatism at every turn when suggesting we can do better. we obviously can do better, if people on here don’t think so, so be it and that probably speaks to a lot of the problem.

Well said I'd say! I (and hundreds of others) had a torrid day yesterday, taking 12 hours to make it from London to Glasgow. (like the steam days!)

Speculation, rants, explanations or otherwise, I think the fact of the matter is for some, they'll think "I could have just driven and saved myself an awful lot of hassle" and many will do just that, regardless of how seldom disruption like this happens. Someone I was chatting to on my train has been doing Carlisle - London every fortnight for 8 years and said it has never been this bad, but I can certainly imagine some being put off completely by rail travel for a while. Not a great look with COP26 either!

I love the railway as much an anyone else on here and will be back, but some people will find this recent disruption simply unacceptable no matter how well intentioned the railways efforts to fix it were.

 

[dk1]

Well said I'd say! I (and hundreds of others) had a torrid day yesterday, taking 12 hours to make it from London to Glasgow. (like the steam days!)

Speculation, rants, explanations or otherwise, I think the fact of the matter is for some, they'll think "I could have just driven and saved myself an awful lot of hassle" and many will do just that, regardless of how seldom disruption like this happens. Someone I was chatting to on my train has been doing Carlisle - London every fortnight for 8 years and said it has never been this bad, but I can certainly imagine some being put off completely by rail travel for a while. Not a great look with COP26 either!

These things tend to be a nine minute wonder. People have short memories.

 

[liam456]

I hope so, for them and the railway's benefit!

 

[dk1]

I hope so, for them and the railway's benefit!

I’ve seen so so many horrendous days of travel & enough bad news to make any other company sink without trace in my time employed & interested in railways. Never makes any difference really in the long run.

 

[modernrail]

We also have a society which has grown increasingly risk averse. So reducing line speeds because of "just the threat" of land slips (or fallen trees) has become the norm. We could insist on reversing that caution but at the risk of courting accidents.

Simply shouting "it should be done better" without suggesting how is not helpful.

I totally understand. Everything is always somebody else’s fault.

 

[Bald Rick]

I’ve seen so so many horrendous days of travel & enough bad news to make any other company sink without trace in my time employed & interested in railways. Never makes any difference really in the long run.

Indeed. I can remember one Sunday where we shut the whole network down due to bad weather. Not many people remember that!

 

[liam456]

Indeed. I can remember one Sunday where we shut the whole network down due to bad weather. Not many people remember that!

Woah! Like, the whole thing? I stand corrected in that case!

Who needs to be in the loop for a decision like that?