We need to talk about Castlefield again.

[northernchris]

How many 802s actually receive maintenance at Craigentinny each day? Presumably not a lot - my recollection of the full diagrams was 2 Craigentinny starters, 2 Doncaster, 4 Edge Hill, 6 Heaton and 1 York. Isn't it just a change in balance of the work for LNER and TPE at Bounds Green, Doncaster and Craigentinny (eg one pair of LNER units going to Craigentinny instead of Doncaster) and then no need for 802s to go to Craigentinny at all.

I suppose the 802s could be reallocated to Doncaster as their home depot, although if I'm honest I don't see the fuss about TPE running north of Newcastle. It's unlikely to have any major impact on the Castlefield / Manchester issues

 

[Philip]

One feature of Option C that seems to me to be operationally problematic is that it has 3tph terminating at Oxford Road in the peaks. These comprise two CLC stoppers and a Southport via Atherton extra. Assuming that these would reverse in Platform 5 and 3, they would all block the western throat of the station on departure, potentially causing delays to eastbound through services. This compromises the timetable resilience to delays.

Furthermore, the Chat Moss stopper is diverted to Victoria in the peaks. Unless this connects at Victoria with the hourly Redcar - Airport service, commuters from Chat Moss stations would have no easy way to access connections at Piccadilly for onward journeys to the south or southeast. The only options might be walk or tram from Victoria to Piccadilly, or double back via Salford Crescent - three changes!

The Southport - Oxford Road service is presumably an attempt to defuse user group opposition to the loss of the Southport - Alderley Edge, but I think that this part of Option C needs more work.

These peak extras could be staggered though, so one between say 16:15 and 17:15 and the other in the following hour.

 

[JonathanH]

I suppose the 802s could be reallocated to Doncaster as their home depot, although if I'm honest I don't see the fuss about TPE running north of Newcastle. It's unlikely to have any major impact on the Castlefield / Manchester issues

Sorry - I didn't notice that the post I was replying to was in this thread and not the relevant one - perhaps these three posts should be moved to https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...stle-what-do-you-think-should-be-done.213105/

 

[HSTEd]

What is the highest performing diesel unit available in terms of acceleration?

If that unit replaced all Northern stoppers on lines into Manchester, would the stoppers be accelerated enough to maybe render some of the semi fasts or expresses less necessary?
If so - could that allow a winnowing of the timetable with little disadvantage to others?

Beyond available units, what is the fastest accelerating diesel unit that can be engineered given our loading guage etc. constraints.

Buying new trains is almost certainly going to be dramatically cheaper than new infrastructure.

EDIT:

The latter option would almost certainly be take a 755/3 and fit it with the 1920kW of generators found in the 755/4.
That would give it near electric performance, would be rather impressive if somewhat fuel hungry!

 

[Jozhua]

What is the highest performing diesel unit available in terms of acceleration?

If that unit replaced all Northern stoppers on lines into Manchester, would the stoppers be accelerated enough to maybe render some of the semi fasts or expresses less necessary?
If so - could that allow a winnowing of the timetable with little disadvantage to others?

Beyond available units, what is the fastest accelerating diesel unit that can be engineered given our loading guage etc. constraints.

Buying new trains is almost certainly going to be dramatically cheaper than new infrastructure.

EDIT:

The latter option would almost certainly be take a 755/3 and fit it with the 1920kW of generators found in the 755/4.
That would give it near electric performance, would be rather impressive if somewhat fuel hungry!

Is not going to be practical to shift a load of 755's onto the route.

Remember, a good 3/4 services each way are TPE, then there's the EMR one. Then you have 3tph on electrified track to Bolton/Blackpool.

The rest of the trains are 195's, which have pretty good acceleration, so ordering more of those where they get perticularly overcrowded would be good.

Buying new trains *may* be somewhat cheaper, but they're not going to do much to solve the problems. The only rolling stock change that may help is EMR getting 170's, which should reduce dwell times due to less unit breakdowns and centre doors.

The Castlefield stuff is comically easy to solve infrastructure-wise, that's what is so maddening about it.

Platform 1 at Oxford Road can't be used by scheduled services because it isn't accessible by lift. This is easy to resolve, probably would cost less than £1m.
Platforms 15/16 are pretty easy to build. They can be constructed next to the existing infrastructure, then connected up with the tracks over a few days shutdown. Doing these two things will pretty much resolve a fairly large % of the delays.

Salford Crescent getting another Island platform would definitely help speed things up. You could also reduce conflicts doing this - trains to Bolton coming from Victoria could go straight up to the corridor, without conflicting twice, either with Wigan trains north of the station, or Castlefield trains South of it.

The issue with Castlefield & operating infrastructure close to its "max", is that it relies on trains arriving perfectly on time for it to function. If everything else on the network also needs the same, one delay quickly cascades and blocks up the whole thing. What we need is areas of resiliency, which can cope with a few more trains per hour, so in times of disruption, they can get things moving again.

 

[andyj158]

I was looking through a Network North West timetable from May to September 1990 and counted 14 passenger trains an hour along the Castlefield corridor during peak times. The main difference back then was most trains were fairly 'local' (Liverpool, Blackpool, Wigan etc) with the exception of the Sheffield (and beyond) - Liverpool service each hour.

The issues along Castlefield only seemed start when the TP Express Scotland and North East services began going that way, bringing with them their delays picked up at other bottle necks.

Looking at the options I feel a real opportunity's been missed here. I'd have suggested the following changes:

Scotland - Manchester Airport
Changed to a Scotland - Preston only

Barrow / Windermere - Manchester Airport
To Preston only

North East - Manchester Airport
Terminate at Victoria (except Newcastle Liverpool)

New Stalybridge / Rochdale - Manchester Airport service
Every 30 mins from Stalybridge and Rochdale, combined provide a every 15 minute service between Victoria, Oxford Road, Piccadilly and the Airport. Thus creating a kind of Heathrow Express type service for Manchester Airport. This would use the Ordsall Curve, so no danger of it becoming a white elephant.

Then try a keep direct Manchester Airport to Wigan, Bolton, Newton-le-Willows & Earlestown services.

This way the airport would still be well served, the airport workers have better connections to the surrounding areas, and longer distances passengers can still get there with a change or two.

The family from Durham who go on their once a year holiday are still likely to catch the train even if that journey now involves a change along the way - your airport worker travelling 5 -days a week who can drive in 30 mins isn't going to take the 1hr+ train journey.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Scotland - Manchester Airport
Changed to a Scotland - Preston only

Absolutely dumb idea I'm afraid. The whole point of it is going to Manchester (though Vic would do). If you were going to do that, you may as well simply remove it (as there are in normal times 2 Avantis anyway), but I don't think that would be a sensible choice at all.

Barrow / Windermere - Manchester Airport
To Preston only

If you're going to cut anything back to Preston those would make more sense. You could perhaps compensate for the loss of through services past Preston by having every service operate through to Preston rather than just half of them, assuming the WCML paths are there.

 

[Ianno87]

Feel like a broken record with my responses...

Scotland - Manchester Airport
Changed to a Scotland - Preston only

This again. Why obliterate a through service that clearly has driven growth in demand?

New Stalybridge / Rochdale - Manchester Airport service
Every 30 mins from Stalybridge and Rochdale, combined provide a every 15 minute service between Victoria, Oxford Road, Piccadilly and the Airport. Thus creating a kind of Heathrow Express type service for Manchester Airport. This would use the Ordsall Curve, so no danger of it becoming a white elephant.

And what happens to current Stalybridge terminating services? You're just shoving the problem somewhere else.

 

[HST43257]

Scotland - Manchester Airport
Changed to a Scotland - Preston only

Barrow / Windermere - Manchester Airport
To Preston only

And, in the process, take out pretty much the entire reason for these services? No thanks. If you really want them off Castlefield, put them into Victoria.

North East - Manchester Airport
Terminate at Victoria (except Newcastle Liverpool)

I’m fairly sure that already there’d be no Castlefield airport services if their only purpose was to serve central Manchester. They go to the airport for a reason and that shouldn’t change.

 

[andyj158]

Absolutely dumb idea I'm afraid. The whole point of it is going to Manchester (though Vic would do). If you were going to do that, you may as well simply remove it (as there are in normal times 2 Avantis anyway), but I don't think that would be a sensible choice at all.



If you're going to cut anything back to Preston those would make more sense. You could perhaps compensate for the loss of through services past Preston by having every service operate through to Preston rather than just half of them, assuming the WCML paths are there.

I agree thinking about it, an extra Scotland to Preston is pointless. In an ideal world a bay platform or 2 would be created at the Salford end of Victoria for these to terminate. I was just thinking of the problems of terminating services at Victoria which they've tried to get rid of.

In the 1990 timetable I've got the Cumbria services did extend to Victoria every 2 hours I think it was. But I think this was before the remodeling of Victoria when there was more space.

Feel like a broken record with my responses...



This again. Why obliterate a through service that clearly has driven growth in demand?



And what happens to current Stalybridge terminating services? You're just shoving the problem somewhere else.

I think most of the demand would remain for Scots wishing to use Manchester Airport even with a change. People will book their flights based on flight times / routings rather than if the airports got a direct train service. Granted though ideally you'd at least have a direct Scotland - Manchester service, if space could be found for it to terminate somewhere that doesn't use the castlefield corridor.

Having previously lived on the Stalybridge side of Greater Manchester and having family the Wigan side, when I've travelled on the Stalybridge stoppers, most of the demand was to Ashton-u-Lyne, Manchester and maybe a few to Salford. Very few would continue on towards Bolton, Atherton, Wigan and beyond. A 30-minute interval Stalybridge to Manchester Airport would still meet most of this demand, plus benefit those who may work / travel closer to Oxford Road or want to get to the airport.

And, in the process, take out pretty much the entire reason for these services? No thanks. If you really want them off Castlefield, put them into Victoria.


I’m fairly sure that already there’d be no Castlefield airport services if their only purpose was to serve central Manchester. They go to the airport for a reason and that shouldn’t change.

If central Manchester had a regular 15-minute interval service then people probably wouldn't find it too much of an issue to make a change in Central Manchester to get to the airport from longer distance services. Much in the same way most people need to change to get to Heathrow by train.

The rail enthusiast in me would hate to see the lost of any of the current Airport services. However thinking from a passenger prospective, frequent, reliable local services which make rail more competitive for locals travelling to the airport either for work or travel, whilst also keeping things as easy as possible for long distance travellers would benefit more people. This would also rid the Castlefield Corridor of most of its long distance services which are the most likely to transfer delays to the route, effectively going back to the 1990 timetable when most services over the route were locals.

 

[Ianno87]

I think most of the demand would remain for Scots wishing to use Manchester Airport even with a change. People will book their flights based on flight times / routings rather than if the airports got a direct train service. Granted though ideally you'd at least have a direct Scotland - Manchester service, if space could be found for it to terminate somewhere that doesn't use the castlefield corridor.

Scotland-Manchester is the key market. Then it's easier to carry on to the Airport anyway.

I've yet to see a proposal to divert it to another termination point that doesn’t either require infrastructure or create a capacity problem.

 

[daodao]

I was looking through a Network North West timetable from May to September 1990 and counted 14 passenger trains an hour along the Castlefield corridor during peak times. The main difference back then was most trains were fairly 'local' (Liverpool, Blackpool, Wigan etc) with the exception of the Sheffield (and beyond) - Liverpool service each hour.

The issues along Castlefield only seemed start when the TP Express Scotland and North East services began going that way, bringing with them their delays picked up at other bottle necks.

You've hit the nail on the head.

TPE (& TfW) services should be removed entirely from the Castlefield corridor. The passenger trains on this line should be operated only by Northern, and be confined to local services, apart from a half-hourly Liverpool-Sheffield fast service [not operated by TPE] as proposed in the latest consultation. TPE should be confined to running fast services on the Standedge route, with the WCML services handed over to Avanti WC. TfW services should terminate at Piccadilly (for South Wales and the Marches) and Victoria (for North Wales), hourly on each route.

 

[Greybeard33]

I was looking through a Network North West timetable from May to September 1990 and counted 14 passenger trains an hour along the Castlefield corridor during peak times. The main difference back then was most trains were fairly 'local' (Liverpool, Blackpool, Wigan etc) with the exception of the Sheffield (and beyond) - Liverpool service each hour.

The issues along Castlefield only seemed start when the TP Express Scotland and North East services began going that way, bringing with them their delays picked up at other bottle necks.

Scotland-Manchester is the key market. Then it's easier to carry on to the Airport anyway.

I've yet to see a proposal to divert it to another termination point that doesn’t either require infrastructure or create a capacity problem.

14tph through Castlefield in the peaks may have worked reliably in 1990, but more has changed since then than just the mix of local and long distance services. Much bigger passenger flows (pre-Covid), longer trains and infrastructure changes, e.g. Ordsall Chord and Manchester Airport station.

A reliable 15 minute service around the Ordsall Chord would be the ideal solution to connectivity between Victoria and Piccadilly, and indeed was the raison d'etre of the Chord. But is very difficult to see how it could be accommodated without the complementary part of the original Manchester Hub plan, namely four full length through platforms at both Piccadilly and Oxford Road.

In all three options of its near-term timetable recast proposals (with no infrastructure enhancements) the Recovery Task Force has kept the existing 2tph Airport - Redcar/Newcastle trains as the only services on the Chord and also retained the 1tph Airport - Scotland and 1tph Airport - Cumbria services through Castlefield. More drastic changes to the long distance services would be the only way to get a reliable 15 minute local service on the Chord with the existing infrastructure.

Network Rail experts have calculated that the off-peak frequency through Castlefield should be limited to 12tph, including the 1tph freight path and the locals that reverse at Oxford Road. As well as the 4tph on the Chord, all the 5tph (including the freight) on the CLC line must go through Castlefield. So that leaves only 12-4-5=3tph total that can come from the other three lines to the west - Chat Moss, Atherton and Bolton. Everything else has to go into the four through platforms at Victoria, in addition to the 4tph from the Chord.

I would choose electric services to go through Castlefield, because otherwise they would clog up Victoria reversing in the through platforms. So 2tph from Blackpool and 1tph from Glasgow/Edinburgh. And I would get rid of the N Wales service as in the Task Force Option C, by sending it round to Piccadilly via Northwich and Stockport.

I think the 4tph fast service to Leeds, York and beyond would have to be sacrificed - others have suggested rerouting 2tph to Piccadilly via Guide Bridge, but I doubt there would be sufficient platform capacity. So strengthen the 2tph Liverpool - York services to 9-car 802s instead, with 1tph Hull and 1tph Huddersfield services remaining on the Guide Bridge route from Piccadilly.

Then, assuming the same Atherton and Bolton frequencies as in Option C, we are left with the following off-peak services into Victoria from the west:
4tph Ordsall Chord
2tph Liverpool via Chat Moss express (to Leeds via Stalybridge)
1tph Liverpool via Chat Moss stopper
2tph Chester via Chat Moss
1tph Kirkby via Atherton
1tph Wigan via Atherton
2tph Southport via Westhoughton
1tph Clitheroe via Bolton
1tph Blackburn via Bolton
1tph Cumbria via Bolton
Total 16tph, versus 12tph into Victoria in the baseline timetable, so problematic!

I would send all four Chord services through Victoria Platforms 3/4 to Stalybridge (with short turnarounds), in order to minimise crossing movements between Deal Street Junction and Miles Platting Junction, so maximising capacity and reliability. They would slot between the Liverpool - Leeds expresses and could become electric once the wires to Stalybridge are up. The electric Liverpool stopper could use the reversing siding west of Victoria to clear the platforms during layover. The diesel Cumbria service could run ECS to Brewery Junction and reverse in the loop. That still leaves 8tph to run through towards Rochdale or reverse at Victoria.

2tph (from Chester) can go to Leeds via Bradford.
1tph (from Wigan) can go to Leeds via Brighouse.
1tph (from Kirkby) can go to Blackburn via Burnley.
2tph (from Blackburn/Clitheroe) can terminate at Rochdale.

That still leaves the 2tph from Southport. Not sure if they could be reliably squeezed into the single Rochdale bay too (the Clitheroe service currently has a 14 minute turnaround time). But reversing in Victoria Platforms 5/6 would likely cause too much congestion.

Not easy - can anyone do better without infrastructure enhancements? I still prefer the Task Force Option C.

 

[Dspatula]

Platform 1 at Oxford Road can't be used by scheduled services because it isn't accessible by lift. This is easy to resolve, probably would cost less than £1m.

I don't know where you've got the idea that platform 1 isn't used it has scheduled trains everyday. Stannah have been to look at putting a lift on it but I can't really see that coming to anything and, making it accessible won't solve much anyway as the platform is only 100m long and inaccessible from Piccadilly if anything longer than a 319 is in two.

 

[Jozhua]

I don't know where you've got the idea that platform 1 isn't used it has scheduled trains everyday. Stannah have been to look at putting a lift on it but I can't really see that coming to anything and, making it accessible won't solve much anyway as the platform is only 100m long and inaccessible from Piccadilly if anything longer than a 319 is in two.

Yes, it's used during delays and the like, but I don't think Platform 1 can have trains timetabled to use it specifically.

 

[Ianno87]

I don't know where you've got the idea that platform 1 isn't used it has scheduled trains everyday. Stannah have been to look at putting a lift on it but I can't really see that coming to anything and, making it accessible won't solve much anyway as the platform is only 100m long and inaccessible from Piccadilly if anything longer than a 319 is in two.

Yes, it's used during delays and the like, but I don't think Platform 1 can have trains timetabled to use it specifically.

There are a small number of trains scheduled to use it, but that is peak/early morning/late evening rather than "standard hour".

It is clearly desirable to minimise its use as much as possible, and putting a particular service group in there every hour would probably not be deemed acceptable.

 

[Glenn1969]

But I would electrify both main transpennine routes and wouldn't send long distance services to the Airport unless I have to so Scotland would terminate at Picc and Barrow/Windermere would terminate at Preston, run through from there to alternative destinations or terminate at Vic. My 4tph via Ordsall would be 2 from Stalybridge and 2 from Bradford and they would all go to the Airport . I have said before I would have Picc to the Airport at 10tph with 2 from Bolton, 2 from Liverpool, 2 from Bradford/Rochdale, 2 from Marple and the other 2 starting at Picc and running through to Crewe. The Marples and the Crewes would be stoppers on the Airport line if they can be pathed

But without the infrastructure Option C is best

 

[Bletchleyite]

But I would electrify both main transpennine routes and wouldn't send long distance services to the Airport unless I have to so Scotland would terminate at Picc and Barrow/Windermere would terminate at Preston, run through from there to alternative destinations or terminate at Vic. My 4tph via Ordsall would be 2 from Stalybridge and 2 from Bradford and they would all go to the Airport . I have said before I would have Picc to the Airport at 10tph with 2 from Bolton, 2 from Liverpool, 2 from Bradford/Rochdale, 2 from Marple and the other 2 starting at Picc and running through to Crewe. The Marples and the Crewes would be stoppers on the Airport line if they can be pathed

But without the infrastructure Option C is best

The Marples would have to reverse, so I wouldn't have those. Or are you proposing sending them the long way round via Vic? That would be very unpopular indeed.

And if you want 10tph (massive overkill in my book; it's not the Northern Line via Bank) they'd all have to be stoppers.

 

[Class 170101]

https://www.wigantoday.net/news/politics/wigan-mp-gobsmacked-plans-axe-direct-train-service-manchester-piccadilly-3126263



I wonder if this will have much of an effect on the final outcome of the consultation.

The Cumbria services were well used between Wigan and Manchester pre-covid, and given that Golborne is less than 10-minutes by road from Newton-le-Willows, I can't see there being much demand for a Golborne station with a service to anywhere other than Manchester.

If it was well used can this service not run via Wigan NW and through the Castlefield Corridor with an additional service between Preston and Manchester Victoria via Bolton to cover the gap by the 'diversion' of the Cumbria service back via Wigan NW. Then the only link lost is Bolton to Piccadilly.

 

[Ianno87]

If it was well used can this service not run via Wigan NW and through the Castlefield Corridor with an additional service between Preston and Manchester Victoria via Bolton to cover the gap by the 'diversion' of the Cumbria service back via Wigan NW. Then the only link lost is Bolton to Piccadilly.

But the point of the Options is to give Bolton-Castlefield a regular 4tph service.

Stick one of these via Wigan and you cause performance problems by creating a 30 minute gap and uneven loading of passengers.

This risks being the "camel is a racehorse designed by a committee" if politics start dictating the service pattern.

 

[Class 170101]

But the point of the Options is to give Bolton-Castlefield a regular 4tph service.

Stick one of these via Wigan and you cause performance problems by creating a 30 minute gap and uneven loading of passengers.

This risks being the "camel is a racehorse designed by a committee" if politics start dictating the service pattern.

At the moment it means Wigan NW to Manchester is zero though

 

[Ianno87]

At the moment it means Wigan NW to Manchester is zero though

Does that matter if there are regular services from Wallgate? Can't have everything. The priority is stabilising the timetable to best meet demand, not pleasing everybody.

 

[Class 170101]

Does that matter if there are regular services from Wallgate? Can't have everything. The priority is stabilising the timetable to best meet demand, not pleasing everybody.

Why did people (pre-covid) go to Wigan NW vice Wallgate?

 

[Ianno87]

Why did people (pre-covid) go to Wigan NW vice Wallgate?

They used either, depending where the next train was from. Even so, plenty of folk still used Wallgate as the "default" option, as that's where most Manchester-bound services left from.

 

[HSTEd]

If we are looking for sacred cows, how about truncating all the CLC trains at Oxford Road in the bay platform, and concentrating Warrington traffic onto the line via Newton-le-willows?

 

[Greybeard33]

They used either, depending where the next train was from. Even so, plenty of folk still used Wallgate as the "default" option, as that's where most Manchester-bound services left from.

The two stations are only just across the road from each other. The departure boards at each ought to show departures from both. I have known visitors from Scotland to wait an hour at North Western, because they did not realise the connection to Manchester shown on their itinerary was from Wallgate.

 

[Bevan Price]

14tph through Castlefield in the peaks may have worked reliably in 1990, but more has changed since then than just the mix of local and long distance services. Much bigger passenger flows (pre-Covid), longer trains and infrastructure changes, e.g. Ordsall Chord and Manchester Airport station.

A reliable 15 minute service around the Ordsall Chord would be the ideal solution to connectivity between Victoria and Piccadilly, and indeed was the raison d'etre of the Chord. But is very difficult to see how it could be accommodated without the complementary part of the original Manchester Hub plan, namely four full length through platforms at both Piccadilly and Oxford Road.

In all three options of its near-term timetable recast proposals (with no infrastructure enhancements) the Recovery Task Force has kept the existing 2tph Airport - Redcar/Newcastle trains as the only services on the Chord and also retained the 1tph Airport - Scotland and 1tph Airport - Cumbria services through Castlefield. More drastic changes to the long distance services would be the only way to get a reliable 15 minute local service on the Chord with the existing infrastructure.

Network Rail experts have calculated that the off-peak frequency through Castlefield should be limited to 12tph, including the 1tph freight path and the locals that reverse at Oxford Road. As well as the 4tph on the Chord, all the 5tph (including the freight) on the CLC line must go through Castlefield. So that leaves only 12-4-5=3tph total that can come from the other three lines to the west - Chat Moss, Atherton and Bolton. Everything else has to go into the four through platforms at Victoria, in addition to the 4tph from the Chord.

I would choose electric services to go through Castlefield, because otherwise they would clog up Victoria reversing in the through platforms. So 2tph from Blackpool and 1tph from Glasgow/Edinburgh. And I would get rid of the N Wales service as in the Task Force Option C, by sending it round to Piccadilly via Northwich and Stockport.

I think the 4tph fast service to Leeds, York and beyond would have to be sacrificed - others have suggested rerouting 2tph to Piccadilly via Guide Bridge, but I doubt there would be sufficient platform capacity. So strengthen the 2tph Liverpool - York services to 9-car 802s instead, with 1tph Hull and 1tph Huddersfield services remaining on the Guide Bridge route from Piccadilly.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 car 802s are much too long for most of the intermediate stations between Liverpool & York - including Huddersfield.

 

[adamedwards]

Looking at Google Maps (always dangerous!), would it be possible to build a crossover from the midpoint of Piccadilly platform 13 joining the track out of platforms 11 and 12? These then join platform 9 at the 10 coach of 16 point.

This crossover would allow a train in 13 (south end) to be overtaken by a train behind. Would this be of value when southbound services are out of sequence?

Would then a platform 9b (the very Southern end) be useable for shorter trains in addition to 13, eg. Trains needing to cross to the fast or East lines? I'm envisaging a train in 9a being serviced between turns meaning the southern end is useable.

Of course not as good as 15 and 16, but if that major project is not possible for years, could the crossover to 9b be quicker to do?

It of course also depends on the use of platforms 9 to 12 too.

 

[jonnyfan]

Then, assuming the same Atherton and Bolton frequencies as in Option C, we are left with the following off-peak services into Victoria from the west:
4tph Ordsall Chord
2tph Liverpool via Chat Moss express (to Leeds via Stalybridge)
1tph Liverpool via Chat Moss stopper
2tph Chester via Chat Moss
1tph Kirkby via Atherton
1tph Wigan via Atherton
2tph Southport via Westhoughton
1tph Clitheroe via Bolton
1tph Blackburn via Bolton
1tph Cumbria via Bolton
Total 16tph, versus 12tph into Victoria in the baseline timetable, so problematic!

I would send all four Chord services through Victoria Platforms 3/4 to Stalybridge (with short turnarounds), in order to minimise crossing movements between Deal Street Junction and Miles Platting Junction, so maximising capacity and reliability. They would slot between the Liverpool - Leeds expresses and could become electric once the wires to Stalybridge are up. The electric Liverpool stopper could use the reversing siding west of Victoria to clear the platforms during layover. The diesel Cumbria service could run ECS to Brewery Junction and reverse in the loop. That still leaves 8tph to run through towards Rochdale or reverse at Victoria.

2tph (from Chester) can go to Leeds via Bradford.
1tph (from Wigan) can go to Leeds via Brighouse.
1tph (from Kirkby) can go to Blackburn via Burnley.
2tph (from Blackburn/Clitheroe) can terminate at Rochdale.

That still leaves the 2tph from Southport. Not sure if they could be reliably squeezed into the single Rochdale bay too (the Clitheroe service currently has a 14 minute turnaround time). But reversing in Victoria Platforms 5/6 would likely cause too much congestion.

Not easy - can anyone do better without infrastructure enhancements? I still prefer the Task Force Option C.

I do think 4tph via Ordsall Chord just won't be possible at the moment, without infrastructure enhancements, so the most really that could be accommodated is 2tph. Task Force Option C is definitely the best solution of the bunch, however we must remember it is just the initial concept of service provision, and that further changes & consultation will take place before May 2022 timetable change once the Option has been chosen. So there is definitely scope to change things for the better.
I've posted it before, here's my plan, based on Option C with further feedback from other forumers that I've picked up along the way, with some reasoning behind some decisions...

CASTLEFIELD [all calling at Deansgate, Oxford Road & Piccadilly]
2tph Blackpool North to Airport via Bolton
2tph Southport to Buxton via Bolton [These two could provide an even 15 minute frequency at Bolton into the Castlefield corridor]
2tph Rochdale to Airport via Victoria [The 2tph for the Ordsall chord, which should be local services to reduce performance risk from further afield destinations]
2tph Lime Street to Cleethorpes (1tph) / Nottingham (1tph) via Warrington Central
2tph Chat Moss Route to Airport (all stops) [Gives Liverpool an Airport connection, and 2tph along Chat Moss stations...1tph from Lime Street & 1tph from Wigan North Western - gives Wigan a 'fast' service to Manchester & Golborne could be served if it ever opened]
2tph Warrington Central to Oxford Road (all stops, preferably with 195s)

12tph via Castlefield, all local services apart from the Cleethorpes & Nottingham services. These could be run by 6 car 185s for maximum capacity & efficient boarding/alighting in Manchester. All to reduce performance risk as much as possible from further afield destinations.

AIRPORT LINE
2tph Piccadilly to Crewe via Airport (all stops)
2tph Blackpool North to Airport via Bolton & Oxford Road (fast Piccadilly to MIA)
2tph Rochdale to Airport via Victoria & Oxford Road (fast Piccadilly to MIA)
2tph Chat Moss Route to Airport (all stops)...(1tph) Wigan North Western / (1tph) Liverpool Lime Street to Airport via Eccles & Oxford Road
This gives Airport line stations 4tph with the Crewe & Chat Moss services

8tph with no intercity services, reducing performance risk as much as possible.
Connections to the Airport
- Passengers from WCML/Barrow/Windermere can have a same platform interchange at Bolton
- Passengers from the North East can have same platform interchange at Victoria
- Passengers from North Wales via Frodsham route can have same platform interchange at Newton-le-Willows
- Passengers from Sheffield & East can have same platform at Piccadilly 13/14
- Passengers from Calder Valley can interchange at Rochdale or Victoria

VICTORIA
2tph Clitheroe/Blackburn to Stalybridge via Bolton [Calls at the local stations between Bolton & Salford Crescent]
2tph Kirkby/Wigan to Leeds/Blackburn via Atherton [Even 2tph all stops all Atherton line]
1tph Glasgow/Edinburgh to Victoria via Bolton (calls at Chorley & Bolton only after Preston)
This would terminate at platform 3 or 4 then reverse back into the sidings to the West of Victoria - planned 5-7 minutes in the platform to clear train of passengers/remove catering trolley/cleaners to board into sidings as TfW do currently at Piccadilly so the train can be prepped in the sidings
1tph Barrow/Windermere to Victoria via Bolton (calls at Chorley & Bolton only after Preston) [The two WCML services combined with the 2tph Blackpool North to Airport service gives 4tph for Chorley]
This would terminate at platform 5 or 6 then shunt forward to Brewery Junction (just as the Kirkby service currently does)
2tph Lime Street to Newcastle/Edinburgh
2tph Chester to Scarborough (1tph) / Redcar (1tph) [Better for these to run through Victoria, as the new TPE rolling stock doesn't fit in Plat 1 & 2 bays at Victoria & reduces any through-platform terminating services - even 2tph for stations between Chester & Newton-le-Willows via Frodsham]
2tph Victoria to Leeds via Halifax [Terminates in the Plat 1 & 2 bays as these units will fit the platforms]
1tph Peak only Wigan to Victoria via Atherton [Peak extra]

Currently 4tph are timetabled to terminate from the west at Victoria at peak times - so this would see a reduction to 3tph max

 

[Greybeard33]

12tph via Castlefield, all local services apart from the Cleethorpes & Nottingham services. These could be run by 6 car 185s for maximum capacity & efficient boarding/alighting in Manchester. All to reduce performance risk as much as possible from further afield destinations.

No, you have omitted the freight path, so you really have 13tph via Castlefield, versus 11tph off-peak in Options B & C. Even with fewer long distance services, that seems unlikely to reduce the performance risk sufficiently.

2tph Rochdale to Airport via Victoria [The 2tph for the Ordsall chord, which should be local services to reduce performance risk from further afield destinations]
2tph Victoria to Leeds via Halifax [Terminates in the Plat 1 & 2 bays as these units will fit the platforms]

So a total of 4tph that have to cross the layout somewhere between Deal St Jn/Victoria E Jn and Miles Platting Jn to get to/from the Rochdale lines, versus only 2tph in Option C. These have to cross the path of the 2tph between Salford Central and Stalybridge, increasing performance risk around Victoria.

1tph Glasgow/Edinburgh to Victoria via Bolton (calls at Chorley & Bolton only after Preston)
This would terminate at platform 3 or 4 then reverse back into the sidings to the West of Victoria - planned 5-7 minutes in the platform to clear train of passengers/remove catering trolley/cleaners to board into sidings as TfW do currently at Piccadilly so the train can be prepped in the sidings
2tph Lime Street to Newcastle/Edinburgh
2tph Chester to Scarborough (1tph) / Redcar (1tph) [Better for these to run through Victoria, as the new TPE rolling stock doesn't fit in Plat 1 & 2 bays at Victoria & reduces any through-platform terminating services - even 2tph for stations between Chester & Newton-le-Willows via Frodsham]

So 4tph of TPE Leeds services through Victoria P3/P4, as Options B/C, but also the TPE Scotland service reversing between one of these platforms and the siding twice per hour. I think this is far too risky, with long distance services from four different directions. TfW Chester/N Wales services ceased terminating at Piccadilly from Dec 2020 because of the performance risk of terminations in a through platform (they now all go through to the Airport).

Also the bay platforms 5 & 6 at Chester are only 112m long - too short for TPE's new 5-car trains to terminate there in place of the Northern Chester - Leeds service.

Currently 4tph are timetabled to terminate from the west at Victoria at peak times - so this would see a reduction to 3tph max

But Option C has no trains terminating at Victoria off-peak, and only 2tph (both local) terminating from the west in the peaks. 3tph, including 2tph long distance all day, greatly increases performance risk.

2tph Southport to Buxton via Bolton [These two could provide an even 15 minute frequency at Bolton into the Castlefield corridor]
2tph Lime Street to Cleethorpes (1tph) / Nottingham (1tph) via Warrington Central

Therefore 4tph crossing between Piccadilly P13/14 and the Stockport lines, versus 2tph in Option C (3tph in the peaks). This increases performance risk between Piccadilly E Jn and Slade Lane Jn.

Sorry if all this seems hyper-critical, but the Task Force Options have been carefully constructed and the pieces fit together like a jigsaw. You cannot just swap things around and expect it still to work reliably.