WCML Open Access Applications Rejected

[Stossgebet]

Because it was the intended introduction date at the point the announcement was made? You will know perfectly well that planned dates often slip in the industry, whether that's timetable changes, new trains or stations opening.


Do you actually have any evidence that this was part of their lobbying effort? Or are you, once again, making claims that you don't actually know are true?

It seems people are giving Sunak and the tories a free pass here. I don't think the issue is the proposed introduction date. It is more about the initial date it was proposed in the first place. As a crumb created by the Sunak butchering of HS2. Their website even begins with the explaination that it is proposed because of the HS2 butchering. So if it hasn't yet appeared to be a fully considered (rolling stock and train crew) and resourced proposal. That's because we are dealing with an aftermath of HS2 fall out, which may not happen, but possibily will.

I do think it would be a good excuse to get a few more 730's built at Derby to keep the facility in business before HS2 rolling stock is built.

 

[43066]

The way you get treated by managers has a direct impact on how willing you are to help out during disruption.

Never a truer word spoken, and LNER crews being unwilling to help out rather bears out what I’ve heard on the grapevine re LNER staff/management relations.

 

[357]

Never a truer word spoken, and LNER crews being unwilling to help out rather bears out what I’ve heard on the grapevine re LNER staff/management relations.

Yep. Another recent story I've heard is during huge disruption at a TOC someone who you and I know very well works for, staff returning to Northern depots from the south of the country were told to use other companies services and go via London... All well and good until they had to pay out of their own pocket to use the tube.

The minimal cost on top of the existing overtime bill would have been minimal, but it's the tone it sets in future of "during disruption - you're on your own".

 

[snookertam]

Frequency is one of the biggest drivers of demand that there is.

How do the alternatives compare? Is the flying option from Glasgow comparatively more attractive for any reason?

And with business travel having been reduced, Edinburgh is a much bigger leisure destination than Glasgow is.

Anecdotally, people in Glasgow are a good bit more likely to fly to/from London than get the train. Even with the hourly direct service, most trains are fairly quiet north of Preston.

 

[Zomboid]

Anecdotally, people in Glasgow are a good bit more likely to fly to/from London than get the train. Even with the hourly direct service, most trains are fairly quiet north of Preston.

I've done the Glasgow - Euston a couple of times in the last year, and that aligns with my anecdotal experience.

Last week the 1538 Glasgow to Euston was cancelled and everyone had to pile onto the 1557 - and I still had an empty seat next to me all the way to New St (though I was a fair way from the barriers having legged it to coach U)

 

[A S Leib]

Last week the 1538 Glasgow to Euston was cancelled and everyone had to pile onto the 1557 - and I still had an empty seat next to me all the way to New St (though I was a fair way from the barriers having legged it to coach U)

Similarly, disruptions today meant passengers from the first Euston to Glasgow were directed to the 09:54 Carlisle to Glasgow via Dumfries and I had an spare seat from Carlisle to Gretna Green, although I don't know if passengers were advised of any other options.

 

[GPR]

Haven’t read the whole thread.
What’ll happen to people who’ve been recruited to Lumo recently?

 

[styles]

Haven’t read the whole thread.
What’ll happen to people who’ve been recruited to Lumo recently?

Those on the Rochdale route may be made redundant/have offers rescinded?

Those on the Stirling route chinking glasses of champagne as the operation has been approved?

 

[The Middle]

Haven’t read the whole thread.
What’ll happen to people who’ve been recruited to Lumo recently?

I think you might be confusing the two. The Rochdale service has been rejected but the Stirling service already had firm rights

 

[GPR]

Ah. Thanks for the replies.
I’m guessing the staff that they employed will still have their jobs as Lumo wouldn’t have banked on getting the routes that they applied for when factoring in recruitment.

 

[Clarence Yard]

Correct. Recruiting for Rochdale has not started.

 

[London Trains]

I've done the Glasgow - Euston a couple of times in the last year, and that aligns with my anecdotal experience.

Last week the 1538 Glasgow to Euston was cancelled and everyone had to pile onto the 1557 - and I still had an empty seat next to me all the way to New St (though I was a fair way from the barriers having legged it to coach U)

In my experience (which albeit is solely in the summer months), the frequency to Glasgow seems to cope well enough, but the issue comes from the intermediate stops where the trains get absolutely rammed, partially with journeys to London but there is also an awful lot of usage between intermediate stops.

In terms of trying to take more demand from flights, speeding up the service and removing some of intermediate stops would be a good step change for the service. While I know it is probably not possible without removing the upcoming Lumo services, and the power supply issues north of Crewe would cause issues, an hourly Euston - Milton Keynes - Crewe - Warrington - Wigan - Preston service (potentially continuing to Lancaster or Blackpool) with the Warrington and Wigan stops removed from the Glasgow service would be a major improvement. In addition, while I am well aware it isn't possible without a major timetable rewrite, demand between intermediate stops would probably decrease if the Glasgow fast service wasn't the first of the 3 or 4 (depending on the hour) services flighted together every hour between Preston and Carlisle.

 

[JonathanH]

In addition, while I am well aware it isn't possible without a major timetable rewrite, demand between intermediate stops would probably decrease if the Glasgow fast service wasn't the first of the 3 or 4 (depending on the hour) services flighted together every hour between Preston and Carlisle.

It is somewhat tricky to path the fastest service anywhere other than first in a flight of trains. In theory the Glasgow fast should really have the most capacity, and to the extent it doesn't advance fares can be priced up relative to the West Midlands train that follows it based on the 9 / 11 coach plan.

 

[swt_passenger]

Has it ever been suggested that the WCML operator runs a regular semifast Euston to Carlisle, similar to the Newcastle service on the ECML? Or is Carlisle a relatively lower demand?

 

[Bald Rick]

Has it ever been suggested that the WCML operator runs a regular semifast Euston to Carlisle, similar to the Newcastle service on the ECML? Or is Carlisle a relatively lower demand?

Carlisle is relatively low, but a useful terminating point for the stations further south. Penrith and Oxenholme are highly leisure focused - lots of long weekend traffic from/to the south, more in the warmer half of the year. I often use Penrith on Sunday / Monday afternoons in summer and there will be well over 100 people boarding. Same at Oxenholme. Lancaster and Preston also load well.

The service patterns post HS2 opening will be interesting.

 

[Carlisle]

Has it ever been suggested that the WCML operator runs a regular semifast Euston to Carlisle, similar to the Newcastle service on the ECML? Or is Carlisle a relatively lower demand? Inter City sec

BRs Inter City sector abandoned Carlisle as a train crew depot (apart from catering ) in 1993, which probably has a lot to do with why such ideas haven’t been pursued in recent times.

 

[Dr Hoo]

BRs Inter City sector abandoned Carlisle as a train crew depot (apart from catering ) in 1993, which probably has a lot to do with why such ideas haven’t been pursued in recent times.

Carlisle only has three through platforms, so not ideal for terminating long trains, especially in the absence of a ‘depot’ equivalent to Heaton. (Yes, I know that there’s a long electrified siding parallel to the single track curve towards the Newcastle line.) I suspect that the fact that Avanti drivers don’t work repetitive ‘shuttles’ wouldn’t make the diagramming any easier either.

 

[185]

but the Stirling service already had firm rights

It does, but I wonder will anything be done in the next 12 months by government to cause that plan to fail considering the big revenue abstracting blue seagull intends to fly in and steal the DfT's chips in:

Carlisle - Preston - Crewe - Nuneaton - Milton Keynes Central - London Euston

Not really new markets there. Stops at the top end are Morpeth-style red herrings. It's already been argued/suggested that the OA bidders did not fully pay for their applications and I wonder if they'll try retrospectively charging this firm.

 

[465fan]

The WCML has a lot of issues which the ECML does not. The amount of freight that still needs to be accommodated (and remain competitive) on that two-track section north of Carnforth, with the associated gradients, slower speeds and then much the same for Carlisle / Gretna Jn to Carstairs.

Add in, as the train approaches Glasgow, it is then a part of a very vibrant suburban rail network, whereas the same can't be said for the approaches to Edinburgh from the Dunbar direction.

You've also not got many major settlements of note north of Newcastle, save for those which can be relatively easily-served by two of the however many trains per hour that are operating. Morpeth - 500,000 journeys per year; Alnmouth 353,000; Berwick 630,000 and Dunbar 399,000. Newcastle being the 'break point' between London and Edinburgh, the comparable version on the WCML is Preston. With that, north of Preston you have Lancaster almost 2,000,000; Oxenholme 542,000 and an interchange for other key stations such as Kendal and Windermere; Penrith 610,000; Carlisle 2,100,000 and then Lockerbie and Motherwell, as well as a need to offer service to both Glasgow and Edinburgh.

You also have the problem of a lack of trains between places like Crewe and Preston, which is only hourly. Half the time, I seem to travel along that small axis and finds things are chaotic. And with the way the "Via Birmingham" service runs, its even got the issue of serving the Midlands, the Crewe interchange, and yield manages people onto it.

Decelerating the London to Glasgow 'direct' is not going to be popular, but it feels like adding a Crewe stop would make a massive difference. Or, you go fully-abstract. You run an all-day, half-hourly Avanti to Liverpool, and replace north of Crewe one London Midland path by diverting it to Preston. With a Hartford stop, it would also open up other links. You wouldn't have a changed frequency, but you could readily have an auxiliary Birmingham to Preston service, possibly formed of 8 coaches.

Or, you run the Avanti West Mids as a Liverpool via Birmingham, and 'recycle' the paths for the second Liverpool (e.g. stopping at Tamworth and Lichfield) as a second Scotland. Factoring in a Birmingham - Preston '350' service, and you could cause the existing London - Glasgow to be accelerated to be non-stop Preston, then Lancaster, then again non-stop Carlisle. If one from Liverpool / Manchester to Scotland is flighted immediately behind, people can jump ship at Preston / Lancaster for Oxenholme / Penrith with no obvious journey time penalty.

 

[A S Leib]

Factoring in a Birmingham - Preston '350' service, and you could cause the existing London - Glasgow to be accelerated to be non-stop Preston, then Lancaster, then again non-stop Carlisle.

I can't remember if it was fast from Preston to Glasgow or stopped at Carlisle as well, but I think something similar was tried before and wasn't considered to be heavily used enough.

 

[465fan]

I can't remember if it was fast from Preston to Glasgow or stopped at Carlisle as well, but I think something similar was tried before and wasn't considered to be heavily used enough.

That was the 16:30, back in the day. That was a peak-time train which was only Preston and Glasgow, Preston pretty much only being for driver change. One can see how, under the punitive arrangements as set out by Virgin back when, that would have been difficult to fill. Even with 9 coaches, of course.

What you do these days if you have an all-day service that also incorporates Lancaster and Carlisle, and is designed to offer competitiveness to the air market, who knows. But clearly, the overall journey time at the moment is a negative factor.

 

[styles]

It does, but I wonder will anything be done in the next 12 months by government to cause that plan to fail considering the big revenue abstracting blue seagull intends to fly in and steal the DfT's chips in:

Carlisle - Preston - Crewe - Nuneaton - Milton Keynes Central - London Euston

Not really new markets there. Stops at the top end are Morpeth-style red herrings. It's already been argued/suggested that the OA bidders did not fully pay for their applications and I wonder if they'll try retrospectively charging this firm.

Arguably the new market is the direct Stirling connection. Living nearby, this would actually come in handy for me. I used to live closer and Stirling was one of my go-to stations for the Caledonian Sleeper.

I imagine there'd be a reasonable amount of interest from Stirling folk heading south for occasional work trips, and tourists coming north because Stirling is stunning with lots to see and do.

Whether that would constitute the majority of travellers on the new service vs people going say Carlisle to Preston or London to Carlisle is another matter. But currently if you want cheap tickets from London to Crewe you take the £11 (with Railcard) direct LNWR. If you want to go cheap to Carlisle on a direct train, you get an Avanti Superfare for £28.

You can get to Stirling for about £28 with a Railcard, but it involves changing trains, and walking between Glasgow Queen St/Glasgow Central.

If Lumo can offer a direct service for a similar price point, I reckon it is a new market, and I reckon it will boost Stirling's tourism trade.

 

[185]

I reckon it is a new market, and I reckon it will boost Stirling's tourism trade.

I agree, Stirling is, as is Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet, Greenfaulds and Larbert - however someone could argue it will mostly abstract those who'd otherwise change at Glasgow or Edingburgh; but - if it was those stops alone to London, I'd have no problem.

But those intermediate English stops are the red flag. Unless they are made set down / pick up only, they are clearly a direct revenue raid on the DfT's London income.

 

[waverley47]

I agree, Stirling is, as is Lockerbie, Motherwell, Whifflet, Greenfaulds and Larbert - however someone could argue it will mostly abstract those who'd otherwise change at Glasgow or Edingburgh; but - if it was those stops alone to London, I'd have no problem.

But those intermediate English stops are the red flag. Unless they are made set down / pick up only, they are clearly a direct revenue raid on the DfT's London income.

Furthermore, the acute proof will be seeing the loading levels from different stations to London.

It's not unlikely we'll see half loaded trains north of Preston, with what passengers there are riding on ridiculously cheap advances to try and show that the service isn't abstractive. I expect in contrast, south of Preston the services will always be full, packed by selling Lumo only tickets from Preston/Crewe/Nuneaton/Milton Keynes to London at five quid cheaper than the anytime single price.

 

[465fan]

Furthermore, the acute proof will be seeing the loading levels from different stations to London.

It's not unlikely we'll see half loaded trains north of Preston, with what passengers there are riding on ridiculously cheap advances to try and show that the service isn't abstractive. I expect in contrast, south of Preston the services will always be full, packed by selling Lumo only tickets from Preston/Crewe/Nuneaton/Milton Keynes to London at five quid cheaper than the anytime single price.

It would be fine to stop at MKC, Nuneaton and at least Crewe on a pick-up basis northbound, and set-down southbound. That just seems entirely reasonable - a potential dearth of unknown and hidden, pent-up demand from places like Watford, Northampton, Leicester, Cov, Birmingham, Wolves and Salop can then get to all of these places and board the train northbound / alight southbound.

Preston I don't see much issue with, as Avanti trains are often knackered as I said before between Crewe and Preston for being full and standing and quite unreliable, so it's valuable additional capacity, as well as giving a competitive edge to connecting stuff to places like Blackburn or Blackpool.

Carlisle, again, no bothers with at all. Lockerbie doesn't have an effective service to London throughout the day, and with the train then stopping at stations from Motherwell north, that's pretty much organic. I don't think it will generate much traffic at all, but if they want to take on that revenue risk, fine. They should, however, not be able to cart people between, say, London and Crewe or London and Nuneaton. That's just abstraction.

 

[waverley47]

It would be fine to stop at MKC, Nuneaton and at least Crewe on a pick-up basis northbound, and set-down southbound. That just seems entirely reasonable - a potential dearth of unknown and hidden, pent-up demand from places like Watford, Northampton, Leicester, Cov, Birmingham, Wolves and Salop can then get to all of these places and board the train northbound / alight southbound.

Preston I don't see much issue with, as Avanti trains are often knackered as I said before between Crewe and Preston for being full and standing and quite unreliable, so it's valuable additional capacity, as well as giving a competitive edge to connecting stuff to places like Blackburn or Blackpool.

Carlisle, again, no bothers with at all. Lockerbie doesn't have an effective service to London throughout the day, and with the train then stopping at stations from Motherwell north, that's pretty much organic. I don't think it will generate much traffic at all, but if they want to take on that revenue risk, fine. They should, however, not be able to cart people between, say, London and Crewe or London and Nuneaton. That's just abstraction.

Exactly, it's the same as the Carmarthen to Paddington service saying that they're providing useful competition and capacity for new stations, but realistically will just sell operator only tickets for five quid cheaper than the Bristol Parkway/Cardiff to Paddington price, and siphon money off.

I'm not ideologically opposed to OA, but it should offer something new. Stirling/Lanarkshire/Lockerbie/Rochdale to London is new. Selling tickets from Crewe/Nuneaton to London is just revenue abstraction, on top of a net performance risk, plain and simple.

 

[465fan]

Exactly, it's the same as the Carmarthen to Paddington service saying that they're providing useful competition and capacity for new stations, but realistically will just sell operator only tickets for five quid cheaper than the Bristol Parkway/Cardiff to Paddington price, and siphon money off.

I'm not ideologically opposed to OA, but it should offer something new. Stirling/Lanarkshire/Lockerbie/Rochdale to London is new. Selling tickets from Crewe/Nuneaton to London is just revenue abstraction, on top of a net performance risk, plain and simple.

And all of these trains are supposedly going to generate organic revenue, whilst only having 5 or 6 coaches. Which, in and of itself, should show to people it's a load of nonsense and they will then just start targeting the heavier-priced tickets on existing key flows. As you say, Preston and Crewe to London for just below the Avanti price, and then undercutting the other operators on other flows.

I still don't think Lumo has done much good. If they are that busy that 5 coaches isn't enough, then it shows that running 3tph from London to Edinburgh with 9 car Azumas should have been the priority from the start, which would also have allowed other stuff to happen, like not having to use TPE for Newcastle to Edinburgh (just put the Reston stop in to one of the 3tph).

 

[A S Leib]

like not having to use TPE for Newcastle to Edinburgh (just put the Reston stop in to one of the 3tph).

I think having that service as TPE made sense in the December 2019 timetable where it gave Edinburgh a second hourly Leeds service and Berwick, Morpeth etc. a Manchester and Liverpool service; less so now that it's mostly Edinburgh – Newcastle only.

I doubt much about the benefits or otherwise of a Northumberland / Borders stopper hasn't already been said, with a few changes and infrastructure differences aside, in the post on Peterborough to Doncaster local services.

 

[465fan]

I think having that service as TPE made sense in the December 2019 timetable where it gave Edinburgh a second hourly Leeds service and Berwick, Morpeth etc. a Manchester and Liverpool service; less so now that it's mostly Edinburgh – Newcastle only.

I doubt much about the benefits or otherwise of a Northumberland / Borders stopper hasn't already been said, with a few changes and infrastructure differences aside, in the post on Peterborough to Doncaster local services.

You don't necessarily need a 'Borders stopper', but if the TPE service effectively exists to serve Reston and East Linton, just put those two calls into an hourly / two-hourly LNER pattern.

 

[A S Leib]

You don't necessarily need a 'Borders stopper', but if the TPE service effectively exists to serve Reston and East Linton, just put those two calls into an hourly / two-hourly LNER pattern.

I meant something to provide links between Morpeth, Alnmouth, Berwick, Reston, Dunbar and East Linton rather than just from them to Newcastle or Edinburgh and back. The draft timetable for this December has 1tph LNER alternating calls between Alnmouth and Berwick and the other fast from Newcastle and CrossCountry serving Morpeth or Alnmouth and Berwick, not leaving much of a service south from Dunbar or between Alnmouth and Morpeth without TPE.

I think this is starting to go off-topic.