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Wales & Borders Franchise

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Camden

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North Wales is not part of North-West England and requires connectivity to its capital city.
Said with a little local insight, for many in North Wales, that would be considered to be Liverpool.

Anyway! Due to the geography and numbers of people involved, the obvious solution is as JCollins suggests, to look beyond "national" boundaries and consider the practical. In addition to the Holyhead to Liverpool via Runcorn services (which wouldn't be Merseyrail third rail, by the by), the solution to connecting North Wales with South Wales is to connect major city to major city and have east-west intersect with that.

A Liverpool via Runcorn to Cardiff service, with which North Walians can connect to via decent services to Runcorn as well as Crewe could get them to Cardiff faster, more frequently and in more comfort than via an bi-hourly DMU trundling through Chirk which only then limits the number of useful commuter services from places like Wrexham.
 
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Bletchleyite

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North Wales is not part of North-West England and requires connectivity to its capital city.

I beg to differ (in de facto terms).

I'm strongly of the view that unlike Scotland, Wales will never go fully independent. The reason for this is that Wales does not act as one economically. In any practical sense, North Wales associates to Chester, Liverpool and Manchester, with significant commuter traffic; mid Wales associates to Shrewsbury and Birmingham, while South Wales associates to Cardiff and secondarily Bristol. The "international trains" are crucially important, much more so than connecting north and mid Wales to Cardiff. The "Gerald" for example is a political/cultural project, not really a practical one. And removing the old "fast" North Wales Coast to Birmingham services was madness.

Wales as a country is much more of a cultural construct. Cultural constructs, while very important, are not a sensible thing to plan a practical economic activity (a railway) around.

Arguably, having Northern and/or TPE operate North Wales, London Midland operate the Cambrian, and GWR operate the south Wales lines, would make a lot more sense in a practical and economical sense.
 
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Dai Corner

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As I said before, I believe franchise areas should be based on railway geography not political geography, but with appropriate input from WG.

For example, about two-thirds of the services between Newport and Cardiff are provided by 'English' TOCs. This must be one of the largest and most profitable flows in Wales and as far as I know the Welsh have no say in their specification and don't benefit from the surplus.

Unfortunately I don't think the Welsh establishment would support what seems a sensible way forward.

How about cross border services being specified by the DfT and run by the relevant English TOC but with WG being a party to the specifications and negotiations and paying their share of any subsidy / receiving their share of any premium?

Services wholly within Wales could be franchised separately if WG wanted that for ideological reasons but in my view would be better dealt with as add-ons to the main franchises.

You've probably guessed I'm not a fan of Welshness for its own sake!
 

northwichcat

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There are excellent connections at Chester between the North Wales and frequent Liverpool services. It is not practicable to extend the 3rd rail Mersey electric services into North Wales.

The frequent Liverpool services are slow all stops services. I was proposing the soon to be introduced semi-fast services via Runcorn could run to Holyhead, hence why I specifically mentioned Liverpool South Parkway and Liverpool Airport. However, disagreeing before you've read the post properly seems to be a common theme in this thread.
 
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daikilo

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I agree with Dai Corner that the franchises should not be based on political geography but I am not sure they should be based on railway geography either. In my opinion passenger flows are as important if not more so. The Wales and Borders franchise is a good example because, whilst that is what its name is, what it does is to try to satisfy the multitude of individual passenger flows, and I believe it does it rather well. Whilst any of the flows are mainly "intra-Wales", a lot are not, thus takimg into account the requirements of not only welsh voters but also those who live outside Wales is important.

I also agree with the comment that there are in essence at least three slices of Wales where only the borders and mid-wales lines actually connect the slices and a lot of the flows go out of the slices to the east.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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The frequent Liverpool services are slow all stops services. I was proposing the soon to be introduced semi-fast services via Runcorn could run to Holyhead, hence why I specifically mentioned Liverpool South Parkway and Liverpool Airport. However, disagreeing before you've read the post properly seems to be a common theme in this thread.

Liverpool-Cardiff is now, and will remain after the Halton Curve is open, faster via Crewe to Shrewsbury and onwards.
 

notlob.divad

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Liverpool-Cardiff is now, and will remain after the Halton Curve is open, faster via Crewe to Shrewsbury and onwards.

.. and Liverpool to Edinburgh will always be quicker by the WCML, but it doesn't stop the new TPE franchise running a direct service by extending the current Newcastle one. We are always told that is to benefit the people of Yorkshire getting to Edinburgh, well J Collin's suggestion would be to benefit the people of Wrexham getting to Liverpool, (and vice versa).

The simple point that JCollins is making, and it is a very valid one, is that for all but a handful of people regular connectivity between North Wales and the cities of both Manchester and Liverpool, will be of much greater relevance than connectivity to Cardiff. With that in mind, I am once again going to state my position on this.

The current Holyhead to Cardiff should keep its 'Premier' through service and maybe have another path in the middle of the day.
All remaining Holyhead workings would continue through Chester limited stop into Manchester and possibly onto the Airport
All Remaining Cardiff workings would continue through Chester limited stop into Liverpool.
The Current Llandudno - Manchester would instead go into Liverpool,
The Northern Connect Service would extend beyond Chester to Wrexham.

That way the North Wales coast, and Wrexham would both have connectivity to the two major cities of the North West.

What colour the carriages are, which company ultimately reaps the profits of these services and which governing body makes the decisions I really don't care. But given the limitations on the infrastructure, and political games aside, these are the services that ultimately I believe would be of most use to the vast majority of people wanting to use the railways.
 
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Brian Aylott

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I'm sorry if I've missed it but have the following questions been asked above?
1) What proportion of the Welsh cannot speak or understand English?
2) What proportion of the Welsh cannot speak Welsh?
3) What proportion of the English can speak and understand Welsh?
Are the answers known and do they help the discussion at all???
Brian
 

PHILIPE

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I'm sorry if I've missed it but have the following questions been asked above?
1) What proportion of the Welsh cannot speak or understand English?
2) What proportion of the Welsh cannot speak Welsh?
3) What proportion of the English can speak and understand Welsh?
Are the answers known and do they help the discussion at all???
Brian

See Post #108
 

6Gman

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I'm sorry if I've missed it but have the following questions been asked above?
1) What proportion of the Welsh cannot speak or understand English?
2) What proportion of the Welsh cannot speak Welsh?
3) What proportion of the English can speak and understand Welsh?
Are the answers known and do they help the discussion at all???
Brian

The answer to 1) is known.
The answer to 2) is known.
The answer to 3) is not known.

No, they don't help the discussion.

:D
 

Llanigraham

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I'm sorry if I've missed it but have the following questions been asked above?
1) What proportion of the Welsh cannot speak or understand English?
2) What proportion of the Welsh cannot speak Welsh?
3) What proportion of the English can speak and understand Welsh?
Are the answers known and do they help the discussion at all???
Brian

Yes, all those figures are available, via the National Census, and no it does not help this discussion.
 

sefyllian

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Seeing as it's Owain Glyndŵr day, pause to consider how much simpler the Wales rail franchise area would be if his rebellion, which began on this day in 1400, had been successful… ;)

320px-Tripart_5png.png
 

Heartland

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With the Welsh Government having devolved powers in relation to transport, there must be an area within the franchise letting process that will be there decision. With every new period of operation there should be improvement, if the present railway system is maintained. Whether this is new trains, new routes, line upgrade, the final mix must be decided soon.

The ongoing policies adopted by some operators to put profit before staff needs may well result in poorer services being given by whoever takes on the 2018 franchise and how many of those that cross into England may well be a matter of concern. There is talk of Mid Wales services terminating at Shrewsbury.

Certainly Arriva find it difficult for all trains to run to Birmingham International at present, I noted cancellations there this week.
 

Philip

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.. and Liverpool to Edinburgh will always be quicker by the WCML, but it doesn't stop the new TPE franchise running a direct service by extending the current Newcastle one. We are always told that is to benefit the people of Yorkshire getting to Edinburgh, well J Collin's suggestion would be to benefit the people of Wrexham getting to Liverpool, (and vice versa).

The simple point that JCollins is making, and it is a very valid one, is that for all but a handful of people regular connectivity between North Wales and the cities of both Manchester and Liverpool, will be of much greater relevance than connectivity to Cardiff. With that in mind, I am once again going to state my position on this.

The current Holyhead to Cardiff should keep its 'Premier' through service and maybe have another path in the middle of the day.
All remaining Holyhead workings would continue through Chester limited stop into Manchester and possibly onto the Airport
All Remaining Cardiff workings would continue through Chester limited stop into Liverpool.
The Current Llandudno - Manchester would instead go into Liverpool,
The Northern Connect Service would extend beyond Chester to Wrexham.

That way the North Wales coast, and Wrexham would both have connectivity to the two major cities of the North West.

What colour the carriages are, which company ultimately reaps the profits of these services and which governing body makes the decisions I really don't care. But given the limitations on the infrastructure, and political games aside, these are the services that ultimately I believe would be of most use to the vast majority of people wanting to use the railways.

Is there any chance/room to fit in an hourly or bi-hourly Holyhead-Birmingham service via Stafford, as it was before? I think Chester-Birmingham especially should be speeded up.

Some thought should be given to speeding up the Manchester-Cardiff services, with perhaps the bi-hourly Cardiff-Shrewsbury becoming hourly and calling all stations Cardiff-Shrewsbury, then all stops to Chester and onto Liverpool

How about:

Hourly Holyhead-Manchester, all stops to Chester and Manchester as now.
Hourly Holyhead-Birmingham fast via Stafford.
Holyhead-London fast token services, as now.
Holyhead-Cardiff via Wrexham Premier service - 2-3 round trips per day.
Hourly Llandudno-Liverpool semi-fast.
Hourly Cardiff-Liverpool all stops via Wrexham and Runcorn.
Hourly Wrexham-Leeds via Manchester, Northern Connect semi-fast.
Hourly South Wales-Manchester via Crewe, fast north of Cardiff.
Hourly Birmingham-Cambrian
Hourly Birmingham-Shrewsbury all stops, LM.
Hourly Crewe to Chester and Shrewsbury shuttles.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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I see the Worst Minister is promising Not for profit franchise again today along with South Wales Metro, North Wales Metro and M4 Relief Rd.

The BBC article on the Welsh Government's 5-year plan had links to a paper from ATW with their input to the HOC Welsh Affairs Committee.
It's very bland, and does not predict the future, but it does set the context for the franchise renewal process from the TOC's point of view.
Of course it portrays what a good job Arriva has done with the 2003 franchise.
http://gov.wales/newsroom/firstminister/2016/160920takingwalesforward/?lang=en
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-37407039
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenev...and-borders-rail-franchise/written/36320.html

Transport: Deliver an M4 relief road in south east Wales, and improvements to the A55 in north Wales, the A40 in west Wales and other trunk roads;
create a South Wales Metro and advance the development of a North Wales Metro system;
and develop a new, not-for-profit, rail franchise from 2018
and deliver a more effective network of bus services once powers have been devolved
About a Not for Profit franchise, I can guarantee that WG will not make any profit from it, but the contractors involved with make a mint unless the WG gets all its ducks in a row before letting a contract.
 
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6Gman

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Is there any chance/room to fit in an hourly or bi-hourly Holyhead-Birmingham service via Stafford, as it was before? I think Chester-Birmingham especially should be speeded up.

Some thought should be given to speeding up the Manchester-Cardiff services, with perhaps the bi-hourly Cardiff-Shrewsbury becoming hourly and calling all stations Cardiff-Shrewsbury, then all stops to Chester and onto Liverpool

How about:

Hourly Holyhead-Manchester, all stops to Chester and Manchester as now.
Hourly Holyhead-Birmingham fast via Stafford.
Holyhead-London fast token services, as now.
Holyhead-Cardiff via Wrexham Premier service - 2-3 round trips per day.
Hourly Llandudno-Liverpool semi-fast.
Hourly Cardiff-Liverpool all stops via Wrexham and Runcorn.
Hourly Wrexham-Leeds via Manchester, Northern Connect semi-fast.
Hourly South Wales-Manchester via Crewe, fast north of Cardiff.
Hourly Birmingham-Cambrian
Hourly Birmingham-Shrewsbury all stops, LM.
Hourly Crewe to Chester and Shrewsbury shuttles.

2tph out of Holyhead seems ambitious.

Linking Salop - Crewe - Chester could raise a pathing issue at Crewe (use Platform 12?)
 

PHILIPE

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Is there any chance/room to fit in an hourly or bi-hourly Holyhead-Birmingham service via Stafford, as it was before? I think Chester-Birmingham especially should be speeded up.

Some thought should be given to speeding up the Manchester-Cardiff services, with perhaps the bi-hourly Cardiff-Shrewsbury becoming hourly and calling all stations Cardiff-Shrewsbury, then all stops to Chester and onto Liverpool

How about:

Hourly Holyhead-Manchester, all stops to Chester and Manchester as now.
Hourly Holyhead-Birmingham fast via Stafford.
Holyhead-London fast token services, as now.
Holyhead-Cardiff via Wrexham Premier service - 2-3 round trips per day.
Hourly Llandudno-Liverpool semi-fast.
Hourly Cardiff-Liverpool all stops via Wrexham and Runcorn.
Hourly Wrexham-Leeds via Manchester, Northern Connect semi-fast.
Hourly South Wales-Manchester via Crewe, fast north of Cardiff.
Hourly Birmingham-Cambrian
Hourly Birmingham-Shrewsbury all stops, LM.
Hourly Crewe to Chester and Shrewsbury shuttles.

I presume scores of additional units would drop out of the sky.
 

berneyarms

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I presume scores of additional units would drop out of the sky.

Is it beyond hope that extra units will be mandated as part of the new franchise?

Most new franchises are having fleet replacement and expansion - why should the Wales & Borders franchise be any different?
 

Philip

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The franchise may be getting 22 185s and who knows, the new franchise may decide to place an order for more 195s to be built, to be used in Wales.

If 2 trains per hour from Holyhead is ambitious then perhaps make it 1 per hour, alternating bi-hourly between Birmingham and Manchester?

Shrewsbury-Crewe-Chester could use platforms 11 and 12, possibly platform 6? Although I guess it's not too important making it a through service.
 
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craigybagel

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Shrewsbury-Crewe-Chester could use platforms 11 and 12, possibly platform 6? Although I guess it's not too important making it a through service.

All 3 of those platforms are an option, although 6 is already very busy. I'm also not sure there's much call for the Shrewsbury-Crewe local to go hourly. It's rarely very busy. Maybe if you removed the nantwich whitchurch and wem calls from those Cardiff services that have them then maybe but expect uproar from the residents if you do.

Fwiw, what I'd do is split the Birmingham-Holyhead at Chester and send those trains coming in both directions to Liverpool. That way for only 2 extra units, Liverpool gets an hourly service, alternating between north wales and Wrexham (both important markets), Cardiff keeps its Holyhead services (not really necessary, but it keeps the folks in the bay happy), and you're not tying up 158s by sending them all the way to Holyhead, the Holyhead-Liverpools could use 150s if nothing more suitable was available.
 

Bletchleyite

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The franchise may be getting 22 185s and who knows, the new franchise may decide to place an order for more 195s to be built, to be used in Wales.

Or something else. Shortish, say 6 car, trains of Mk4s hauled by 68s, 88s in due course, would be good for North Wales Coast to Birmingham expresses, were something like that proposed.
 

Philip

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Or something else. Shortish, say 6 car, trains of Mk4s hauled by 68s, 88s in due course, would be good for North Wales Coast to Birmingham expresses, were something like that proposed.

It'd make a lot more sense to start running to Birmingham via the old route, that's for sure and 4-5 coaches per set would be a reasonable length. Is there capacity between Crewe and Stafford to allow for an extra path?

Manchester-Bangor fast hourly service instead perhaps, with occasional trains carrying onto Holyhead to connect with the ferries?

Crewe-Holyhead hourly service with trains originating from Birmingham every other hour. Alternate fast and stopping services bi-hourly - similar to the Cardiff/Birmingham-Holyhead arrangement now.

Liverpool-Llandudno all stops service.
 

Bletchleyite

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Crewe-Holyhead hourly service with trains originating from Birmingham every other hour. Alternate fast and stopping services bi-hourly - similar to the Cardiff/Birmingham-Holyhead arrangement now.

I'd rather see the stopping services separated out - so say Holyhead to Birmingham would be semifast, Holyhead to Manchester would do all stations west of Llandudno Junction then semifast, Llandudno to Liverpool would do all stations.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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The Liverpool (direct) market is totally unproven. They will start with a Chester-Lime St local.
Wrexham-Liverpool is not a large market, and it suffers from campaigners being unable to decide on via Chester or Bidston.
The Birmingham problem is from Wolverhampton.
They won't cut the Shrewsbury line service (LM is getting an extra path anyway), and there are other pressures on the line.

There isn't much of a ferry market left, either.
Holyhead is very lucky to retain its hourly service and London trains.
I would terminate more trains at Bangor and Llandudno, the commercial hubs.
 

Philip

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The Liverpool (direct) market is totally unproven. They will start with a Chester-Lime St local.
Wrexham-Liverpool is not a large market, and it suffers from campaigners being unable to decide on via Chester or Bidston.
The Birmingham problem is from Wolverhampton.
They won't cut the Shrewsbury line service (LM is getting an extra path anyway), and there are other pressures on the line.

There isn't much of a ferry market left, either.
Holyhead is very lucky to retain its hourly service and London trains.
I would terminate more trains at Bangor and Llandudno, the commercial hubs.

Perhaps one train a day each way between London and Holyhead would suffice? Would free up some Voyagers too. The one that connects into the 13:50/14:00 ferries from Holyhead seems to be fairly well used.

Holyhead is still a reasonably sized town, I'd have thought an hourly service would still be justified for that reason? I do think the request stops between Bangor and Holyhead are perhaps too well served.
 
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