Wales & Borders Franchise Consultation

[northwichcat]

And maybe we could focus on the possible proposals again rather than the idiosyncrasies of the Welsh language, fascinating as they may be?

Indeed. A moderator has already reminded posters the thread is to discuss the franchise not the Welsh language after an earlier diversion from the topic.

 

[Gareth Marston]

And maybe we could focus on the possible proposals again rather than the idiosyncrasies of the Welsh language, fascinating as they may be?

Yes we've somewhat exhausted the service pattern possibility however I think the suprise will come on the rolling stock front. Here's some thoughts

175 fleet goes off lease CAF MK 5's & locos plus Stadler Bi Modes replace them in slightly larger numbers.

158's on Cambrian/ Chester go and are replaced on Birmingham trains by Class 185's. 158's go to West Wales.

Rural scenic DMU is acquired for Cambrian Coast, Heart of Wales etc.

 

[krus_aragon]

Another amusing one is Valley on Anglesey - it started as "Y Fali", was Anglicised to "Valley", then gets translated (as it is I think on the station signs) back to "Dyffryn". Oops.

I think that Oops has been rectified. The origin of the name Valley is uncertain. It is believed to
be of Irish origin, from the Navvy camps established there while building the Stanley Embankment and the Chester & Holyhead Railway.

 

[gareth950]

And maybe we could focus on the possible proposals again rather than the idiosyncrasies of the Welsh language, fascinating as they may be?

Maybe this thread has descended into discussions of the Welsh language as there are no proposals in the public domain at the moment! The whole process is still being conducted behind closed doors.

All we know is that there is a looming DMU crisis in Wales thanks to no PRM work having been started on the fleet and no plans to start any such work being in place, and the only other recent development is the fact that the Welsh Govt has told bidders that accommodation for freight traffic on the 'Core valley lines' must remain. What this means for the light rail proposals for the valleys now is anyone's guess.

We might get more info when the consultation closes in a few weeks and if the initial ITT is released publicly next month.

 

[Llanigraham]

Rural scenic DMU is acquired for Cambrian Coast, Heart of Wales etc.

My understanding is that the alternator power is not great enough to run the ERTMS equipment, and the conversion costs would be very high to fit all the required systems.

 

[krus_aragon]

My understanding is that the alternator power is not great enough to run the ERTMS equipment, and the conversion costs would be very high to fit all the required systems.

Is this referring to a specific class of rolling stock, or a more general statement?

 

[craigybagel]

We still get Give Way road signs defaced with the Welsh Ildiwch.
That despite Ildiwch being simply the welsh-ization of the English (Saxon?) word Yield.

I have never heard train announcements in Welsh, only at stations.
Welsh conductors certainly chat to passengers in Welsh though, even at Crewe!

There are a small amount of Conductors at Junction and Holyhead who occasionally do announcements in Welsh (even on trains travelling entirely within England). There is also at least one member of Welsh born traincrew based at each of the 3 English depots, although I can't speak for their proficiency in Welsh! However.....

And maybe we could focus on the possible proposals again rather than the idiosyncrasies of the Welsh language, fascinating as they may be?

That's a very good idea

My understanding is that the alternator power is not great enough to run the ERTMS equipment, and the conversion costs would be very high to fit all the required systems.

I dont know what particular stock you have in mind for this, but it certainly wouldn't surprise me. I know it's been a very big challenge on the 158s and they can only just about cope with the demands.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Is this referring to a specific class of rolling stock, or a more general statement?

My understanding is a key finding of the pilot trial is avoid retrofitting it.

 

[Llanigraham]

Is this referring to a specific class of rolling stock, or a more general statement?

It appeared to have been about ALL the heritage DMU's.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Yes we've somewhat exhausted the service pattern possibility however I think the suprise will come on the rolling stock front. Here's some thoughts

175 fleet goes off lease CAF MK 5's & locos plus Stadler Bi Modes replace them in slightly larger numbers.

158's on Cambrian/ Chester go and are replaced on Birmingham trains by Class 185's. 158's go to West Wales.

Rural scenic DMU is acquired for Cambrian Coast, Heart of Wales etc.

Are these (a.) what one of the bidders plans to do (b.) a mix-and-match of what (eg. bidder A proposes mrk5s and bidder B proposes Flirts) or (c.) your own suggestion?

All the following is my own suggestions/opinions, I have zero insider knowledge.

I hope the Cambrian doesn't get 185s, they are completely unsuitable in my opinion given that stops aren't that close together on AYW-Birmingham and the need for portion working. I hope we don't see Flirts either as they don't have UEGs and the more DMUs with them the better in my opinion as portion working can be quite useful. More regional-express stock (end-doors, like 158/175) would be nice.

That said, I assume 158s and 175s are 2020-compliant so apart from the mark 3s the long-distance fleet could remain unchanged until mark 4s become available (VTEC's lease ends 31st March 2020 I believe) to put load 4 and load 5 sets on 175/1 diagrams, cascading 175/1s onto current 2-car diagrams. The mark 3s are a problem though, without a micro-fleet replacing them or mark 5s instead of the potentially-cheaper mark 4s.

The big question mark is the metro and local stock. With the EMT refranchising having been put back, they will have a 2020 problem as well (with their 153s). There may be a fight over whether Wales or EMT gets the 14x class 156 units up-for-grabs between now and 1/1/2020. If W&B got them, the 14 units might be a good fit for the diesel side of Swansea (still hope that the GWML will get wired eventually, probably not west of Bridgend until CP7 though along with Bristol since ValleyLines will probably take up CP6 given how slow Network Rail are being with electrification).

My understanding is a key finding of the pilot trial is avoid retrofitting it.

Avoid retrofitting to ex-BR DMUs or avoid retrofitting to anything and everything, including locos and modern DMUs (such as 185s and 175s)?

Some of the seats have 'gone' on the 175s (the shape seems to have changed so there is now a horrizontal bar digging into my back) so a fairly extensive refurb is in order. If they could fit UEGs and ETCS while they are at it (a much bigger job than just a refurb granted) they would make a great fleet for the Cambrian, possibly allowing Birmingham-Wrexham portions to go hourly as well, with a mix of 5-car LHCS and 4-car 158s on the Manchesters.

 

[Gareth Marston]

Are these (a.) what one of the bidders plans to do (b.) a mix-and-match of what (eg. bidder A proposes mrk5s and bidder B proposes Flirts) or (c.) your own suggestion?

All the following is my own suggestions/opinions, I have zero insider knowledge.

I hope the Cambrian doesn't get 185s, they are completely unsuitable in my opinion given that stops aren't that close together on AYW-Birmingham and the need for portion working. I hope we don't see Flirts either as they don't have UEGs and the more DMUs with them the better in my opinion as portion working can be quite useful. More regional-express stock (end-doors, like 158/175) would be nice.

That said, I assume 158s and 175s are 2020-compliant so apart from the mark 3s the long-distance fleet could remain unchanged until mark 4s become available (VTEC's lease ends 31st March 2020 I believe) to put load 4 and load 5 sets on 175/1 diagrams, cascading 175/1s onto current 2-car diagrams. The mark 3s are a problem though, without a micro-fleet replacing them or mark 5s instead of the potentially-cheaper mark 4s.

The big question mark is the metro and local stock. With the EMT refranchising having been put back, they will have a 2020 problem as well (with their 153s). There may be a fight over whether Wales or EMT gets the 14x class 156 units up-for-grabs between now and 1/1/2020. If W&B got them, the 14 units might be a good fit for the diesel side of Swansea (still hope that the GWML will get wired eventually, probably not west of Bridgend until CP7 though along with Bristol since ValleyLines will probably take up CP6 given how slow Network Rail are being with electrification).

Avoid retrofitting to ex-BR DMUs or avoid retrofitting to anything and everything, including locos and modern DMUs (such as 185s and 175s)?

Some of the seats have 'gone' on the 175s (the shape seems to have changed so there is now a horrizontal bar digging into my back) so a fairly extensive refurb is in order. If they could fit UEGs and ETCS while they are at it (a much bigger job than just a refurb granted) they would make a great fleet for the Cambrian, possibly allowing Birmingham-Wrexham portions to go hourly as well, with a mix of 5-car LHCS and 4-car 158s on the Manchesters.

Something has to happen with the long distance stock in terms of increasing size of it even if only a relatively small % and maybe not what we would all like. A mass LhCS option is not going to happen but as I have suggested before a mini fleet of Gerald's may be perceived to tick some boxes by some bidders.

Have to admit I will be very surprised if we see anything other than the current 158 fleet on the Cambrian hopefully with the South Wales diagrams cut out and maybe some 3 car sets. I have heard some rumblings about the 175's being totally replaced from more than one source.......

On the end door theme I've done off Cambrian last few weeks 168's, 185's, 220's & 221's. The worst experiences were with the end door units.....

 

[Rhydgaled]

Something has to happen with the long distance stock in terms of increasing size of it even if only a relatively small % and maybe not what we would all like. A mass LhCS option is not going to happen but as I have suggested before a mini fleet of Gerald's may be perceived to tick some boxes by some bidders.

Something has to happen yes, but does it need to happen before the mark 4s are available? Would around 18 sets be considered a 'mass LHCS option'? There are only 16x 175/1s and 2 LHCS diagrams, so 18-20 sets would cover my suggestion of using mark 4 stock to lengthen the 3-car diagrams and replace the mark 3s.

On the end door theme I've done off Cambrian last few weeks 168's, 185's, 220's & 221's. The worst experiences were with the end door units.....

That's only because the Voyagers are stupid, an intercity unit with only a regional express number of coaches. Even then, one coach on the Virgin class 221s (coach D, I think) is a better saloon layout than would be possible with a saloon interupted by 'doors at thirds'.

 

[Parallel]

Despite being pleasant units, I actually find the class 175s to have a rather poor ride quality and I think they would give an inferior experience on the Cambrian, especially over jointed track. Also, it will make operation a little more difficult, as the guard cannot walk between the units between Caersws and Machynlleth to ensure passengers are in the correct portion.

Also, on the occasion that 4 carriages go off towards Pwllheli (which does happen on occasion), this would make it quite difficult with request stops and also local door (for 4 car unit) stops due to there being no walkthrough.

I think the 158s are adequate for the Cambrian for now. The 156s would work quite well for West Wales and possibly the HOW if cleared.

 

[tomuk]

What is needed are some of the 158s from Northern or East Midlands

158 846/847/852/854/856–858/862 or 158815–817/842–845/848–851/853/855/859

Off Lease 153s, 156s and 170s to Northern/East Midlands to free up the 158s

Diesel stock should be made up of 150/2s, 158s and 175s.

153s, 156s and 170s to Northern/East Midlands to free up the 158s

All valley lines should be electrified with 61x 315s or batch of new Aventras

No 230s, no bi-modes, no tram trains, no trams.

Possibly some Anglia Mk3s or East Coast Mk4s on 3x Cardiff-Holyhead and 3x Cardiff-Manchester returns daily

 

[craigybagel]

Something has to happen yes, but does it need to happen before the mark 4s are available? Would around 18 sets be considered a 'mass LHCS option'? There are only 16x 175/1s and 2 LHCS diagrams, so 18-20 sets would cover my suggestion of using mark 4 stock to lengthen the 3-car diagrams and replace the mark 3s.

To be honest, something needed to have already happened a long time ago.

 

[krus_aragon]

Despite being pleasant units, I actually find the class 175s to have a rather poor ride quality and I think they would give an inferior experience on the Cambrian, especially over jointed track.

I'm thinking back to my journeys on the (recently replaced) jointed track Gobowen-Wrexham, and can't recall any noticeable difference in the ride between a 175 and a 158.

I think the 158s are adequate for the Cambrian for now. The 156s would work quite well for West Wales and possibly the HOW if cleared.

Would the 156s continue working quite well come the end of the new franchise period?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

158s aren't going to move off the Cambrian for a long time.
The 158 ETCS conversion is expensive and will take time for a significant additional fleet (when they are available).
There are no conversions designed for any other DMU stock (eg 175, 185).
Network Rail is supposed to fund "first in class" conversions, the rest is at TOC cost.
But there is no DMU programme established because it follows the NR ETCS rollout plan (currently Thameslink, then parts of GWML/ECML) which is all EMU-based.
New DMUs (eg 195, Stadler) and locos will be "ETCS-ready", but without any actual kit fitted.

 

[Gareth Marston]

The Whacky World of franchising is all about making numbers add up in a vacuum not plan a system that's fair to all users/regions/services.

Greater Anglia was able to double its regional fleet in contrast SWT has solely focused its improvements on London commuting with its Regional fleet (Salisbury based 158/159's) remaining static. Consistency is not to be expected nor rational allocation of existing resources.

Its to be hoped that special concessions for the Welsh Public Sector bubble view of the world are not extensive and to the detriment of passengers in Wales and the Borders.

The current W&B 153/158/175/LHCS stock is 133 strong. Assuming the 158/175 fleet stay they make up 117 of them.

A 10% increase in the fleet size would need another c 30 carriages.
A 20% increase in the fleet size would need another c 42 carriages.

 

[craigybagel]

I'm thinking back to my journeys on the (recently replaced) jointed track Gobowen-Wrexham, and can't recall any noticeable difference in the ride between a 175 and a 158.

Most traincrew much prefer working on 175s over 158s, but we'd probably all agree at least that the ride on 158s is better. 175s aren't bad, but 158s are better.

 

[Parallel]

Would the 156s continue working quite well come the end of the new franchise period?

With a decent refurb, maybe - but as W&B are retaining 150s, they won't be any worse than these.

 

[krus_aragon]

With a decent refurb, maybe - but as W&B are retaining 150s, they won't be any worse than these.

Granted.

 

[Rhydgaled]

Also, it will make operation a little more difficult, as the guard cannot walk between the units between Caersws and Machynlleth to ensure passengers are in the correct portion.

Also, on the occasion that 4 carriages go off towards Pwllheli (which does happen on occasion), this would make it quite difficult with request stops and also local door (for 4 car unit) stops due to there being no walkthrough.

I think the 158s are adequate for the Cambrian for now.

I agree that the 175s are no good for the Cambrian as they are; I did say they would have to be fitted with UEGs as well as ETCS to be good for the Cambrian. The only problem with the 158s on the Cambrian is that sometimes a 2+2+2 carriage formation isn't always ideal; a 3-car portion would be useful at times for all three routes (Wrexham/Pwllheli/Aberystwyth) and the slightly larger 175 fleet could allow for the Birmingham-Wrexham portions to increase to hourly and/or extend to Liverpool. But you would need to gut the 175s to install UEGs to make them suitable.

What is needed are some of the 158s from Northern or East Midlands

Would be great for Wales but it would be a retrograde step for Northern and EMT unless a new build of regional express DMUs happens for them, and I can't see that happening.

All valley lines should be electrified with 61x 315s or batch of new Aventras

No 230s, no bi-modes, no tram trains, no trams.

I disagree with that apart from 'all ValleyLines should be electrified' and 'no 230s'. Trams and tram-trains I'm still undecided, but they should be very limited if they are used (north of Taff's Well and the Rhymney line should all be heavy-rail trains).

For EMUs, given the fairly new class 379s and 458s are both coming off lease it ought to be possible to have something more modern than the 315s without the expense of a new build (I know 'money is cheap' at the moment but surely the ROSCOs will want to lease their stock rather than pay to warm-store them so hopefully leases will be cheap). The only trouble is that ValleyLines EMUs would ideally be 3x20m vehicles (with UEGs to allow doubling-up to fill the 6x20m platforms on some lines), and both 379 and 458 are longer than that.

Bi-modes will still be needed given that the marches and Cheltenham Spa routes are not included in the electrification project, and it might be CP7 before the wires reach Swansea. A problem is that Cheltenham runs are over an hour and so a better interior is required, with decent legroom, and I'm not sure a 319 (which I think is the same hopeless bodyshell as a 150) would be up to the job (although, if many pax make use of the fact ValleyLines services run through Cardiff onto the Vale Of Glamorgan, than the whole ValleyLines network is over an hour and also needs to be outer-suburban stock).

Another reason for bi-modes (ones converted from existing stock that is) is that they might be able to take over from the Pacers by 2020, otherwise you will need a very expensive short-term lease on something like 230s to cover the gap until the wires are up. With a bi-mode, you can keep finding a use for them after electrification; with a 230 once the wires are up they have to go.

Some of the 150s need to go as soon as the ValleyLines are electrified, there isn't enough work they would be suitable for elsewhere on the franchise (there might be a use for 15-20 units, if Swansea gets a diesel metro, but not the full 36 unless alot of services run as 4-car 150s).

 

[Llanigraham]

I agree that the 175s are no good for the Cambrian as they are; I did say they would have to be fitted with UEGs as well as ETCS to be good for the Cambrian.

What the heck is a UEG?
Union of European Gymnasts
United European Gasroenterology
United Entertainment Group

 

[Parallel]

Would be great for Wales but it would be a retrograde step for Northern and EMT unless a new build of regional express DMUs happens for them, and I can't see that happening.

I disagree with that apart from 'all ValleyLines should be electrified' and 'no 230s'. Trams and tram-trains I'm still undecided, but they should be very limited if they are used (north of Taff's Well and the Rhymney line should all be heavy-rail trains).

For EMUs, given the fairly new class 379s and 458s are both coming off lease it ought to be possible to have something more modern than the 315s without the expense of a new build (I know 'money is cheap' at the moment but surely the ROSCOs will want to lease their stock rather than pay to warm-store them so hopefully leases will be cheap). The only trouble is that ValleyLines EMUs would ideally be 3x20m vehicles (with UEGs to allow doubling-up to fill the 6x20m platforms on some lines), and both 379 and 458 are longer than that.

Bi-modes will still be needed given that the marches and Cheltenham Spa routes are not included in the electrification project, and it might be CP7 before the wires reach Swansea. A problem is that Cheltenham runs are over an hour and so a better interior is required, with decent legroom, and I'm not sure a 319 (which I think is the same hopeless bodyshell as a 150) would be up to the job (although, if many pax make use of the fact ValleyLines services run through Cardiff onto the Vale Of Glamorgan, than the whole ValleyLines network is over an hour and also needs to be outer-suburban stock).

Another reason for bi-modes (ones converted from existing stock that is) is that they might be able to take over from the Pacers by 2020, otherwise you will need a very expensive short-term lease on something like 230s to cover the gap until the wires are up. With a bi-mode, you can keep finding a use for them after electrification; with a 230 once the wires are up they have to go.

Some of the 150s need to go as soon as the ValleyLines are electrified, there isn't enough work they would be suitable for elsewhere on the franchise (there might be a use for 15-20 units, if Swansea gets a diesel metro, but not the full 36 unless alot of services run as 4-car 150s).

The 158s have done well and are popular units, and I'm pretty sure every franchise that currently operates them would happily take on more! A big success for that generation of DMU, for sure. I agree maybe ATW/whoever operates the franchise should look at making some three car hybrids if possible. I read on this forum before that someone had an idea of running 5-car 158s on the Aberystwyth & Pwllheli 'split' runs, with Aberystwyth getting three cars during term time, and then Pwllheli getting three during the summer peak. Then Shrewsbury - Machynlleth will also gain an extra coach as some four coach trains that leave Shrewsbury towards the Cambrian are full.

You'd still need one or two 158 diagrams in South Wales though, to maintain crew knowledge and for heavier maintenance at Canton, one probably being the limited stop daytime Fishguard boat service.

Maesteg really needs to go half-hourly too along with Pontyclun, Llanharan and Pencoed, and the Swanline stations need to go hourly. If the unit shortage is still bad in the future, I wonder if you'd be able to save a unit by having every other one of the presumed hourly Swanlines call at Pontyclun - Pencoed too and then the extra Maesteg connecting, and using the west facing bay platform at Bridgend? Just playing around with ideas. It probably won't be too long until a loop is needed somewhere on the SWML, as is what happens at Dawlish Warren.

With current electrification progress, even when a date is fully decided, the valley lines electrification will probably slip anyway. I wonder if it would be cheaper to lease some DDA compliant stock post 2020 (if there even is any) or to do a fairly cheap refurb on the class 143s (also obtaining the 143s from GWR and the 144s from Northern) which may extend their life by upto another 10 years, but also retire the 142s. Pacers on the Valley lines aren't that bad due to there being a stop every couple of minutes, and passenger journey times aren't likely to be much more than an hour - therefore, I'm not sure trams on existing routes would provide a better passenger experience, although perhaps less squealing! Trams to/from other places not currently connected to the rail network however, could be a big hit! Also, ATW have already refreshed the seating on most of their 142s so if they win the franchise, could just move them across! :P Pacers are on borrowed time anyway, but it makes sense, especially in the case of W&B for them to be replaced by suitable EMUs that are intended to be kept long term, and also due to clearance issues north of Radyr. Valley lines at peak time around Cardiff are overwhelmed, not helped by single 150s working alone.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

What the heck is a UEG?
Union of European Gymnasts
United European Gasroenterology
United Entertainment Group

End-gangwayed stock (presumably), like 158s.
Those things are rapidly going out of fashion, as you get cramped cabs with poor driver viewing angles and no space for extra kit like ETCS.
It's telling that none of the new Northern, TPE and GA stock will be gangwayed.
Cab costs are so high that having longer fixed-formation units is now preferred (bar, strangely, the 2-car Northern non-gangwayed 195 DMUs).

 

[Rhydgaled]

Maesteg really needs to go half-hourly too along with Pontyclun, Llanharan and Pencoed, and the Swanline stations need to go hourly. If the unit shortage is still bad in the future, I wonder if you'd be able to save a unit by having every other one of the presumed hourly Swanlines call at Pontyclun - Pencoed too and then the extra Maesteg connecting, and using the west facing bay platform at Bridgend? Just playing around with ideas. It probably won't be too long until a loop is needed somewhere on the SWML, as is what happens at Dawlish Warren.

I've also thought that the extra Maesteg might have to be a shuttle to/from Bridgend, but mostly because of the lack of line capacity between Cardiff and Bridgend (also, it wouldn't make sense to have an uneven 3tph service at Pencoed etc. (half-hourly Maestegs plus hourly Swanline does-not-equal a train every 20mins). I personally think we are not far off needing a third route (shorter and faster) between Cardiff and Bridgend to stop Swansea/Carmarthen/Pembrokeshire fast/semi-fast services getting stuck behind Swanline and Maesteg services. I often find the journey time between Cardiff and Port Talbot / Bridgend a bit of a drag and could do with speeding up, not slowing down into a Metro-style high-frequency all-stops service.

 

[Rhydgaled]

What the heck is a UEG?
Union of European Gymnasts
United European Gasroenterology
United Entertainment Group

Unit-End Gangway, I picked it up from somebody on one forum or another. Don't know if it is an official term.

End-gangwayed stock (presumably), like 158s.
Those things are rapidly going out of fashion, as you get cramped cabs with poor driver viewing angles and no space for extra kit like ETCS.
It's telling that none of the new Northern, TPE and GA stock will be gangwayed.
Cab costs are so high that having longer fixed-formation units is now preferred (bar, strangely, the 2-car Northern non-gangwayed 195 DMUs).

I agree that longer fixed-formations are prefered, I've nothing against the class 700s not having UEGs (since they are 8-car and 12-car units that will never need to run in multiple), but in rural franchises you can't have trains that long. Running the railway for profit not passengers again. I don't necessarily mind a small profit being made on lines that are actually profitable (intercity services, primarily), but they should put passengers before profit. ScotRail at least have done the right thing with the class 385s, Northern's 195s are a big disapointment and not what I think is required. There's loads of non-UEG suburban DMU stock (170s, 171s, 172/0s, 172/1s and 185s) as it is, it is more 158-like trains we need.

 

[gareth950]

With a decent refurb, maybe - but as W&B are retaining 150s, they won't be any worse than these.

From what I've read the Welsh Govt still hasn't decided whether to keep ATW's 150/2s post 2020 yet.

 

[Gareth Marston]

158s aren't going to move off the Cambrian for a long time.
The 158 ETCS conversion is expensive and will take time for a significant additional fleet (when they are available).
There are no conversions designed for any other DMU stock (eg 175, 185).
Network Rail is supposed to fund "first in class" conversions, the rest is at TOC cost.
But there is no DMU programme established because it follows the NR ETCS rollout plan (currently Thameslink, then parts of GWML/ECML) which is all EMU-based.
New DMUs (eg 195, Stadler) and locos will be "ETCS-ready", but without any actual kit fitted.

The 158's need to be concentrated on the ex Central Trains routes in the franchise. The London Midland franchise commitment to run an additional Birmingham to Shrewsbury off peak train will do little for passenger capacity at peak times on the route as they already operate peak additional services. ATW's longest train is currently on this route the 6 car 0732 Shrewsbury to BHM INTL which has portions from Crewe and Aberystwyth. Some of the 4 car runs can be pretty full already the 0832 ex Shrewsbury and the 1609,1709 ex INTL's all need more than four carriages M - F. The 0809 ex INTL on high summer weekdays and all summer Saturdays also.

Running 3 car portions from Chester/ Cambrian is doable with fleet of 24 158's reformed as 14 3 car and 3 2 car sets. Pwllhlei could keep 4 direct trains to the West Midlands a day and through traffic for coast is separated from that to AYW (12 through trains) . 2 car sets could operate non through trains on coast with possibility of running through to AYW to serve tourist trade.

 

[Envoy]

Let us assume that the Maesteg line and the Ebbw Vale line get electrified at 25Kv to match the mainline. That being the case, then it would surely be best for a half hourly service to operate between Maesteg and Ebbw Vale as this would create an easy path through Cardiff Central. The current Maesteg to Cheltenham services would therefore cease as from Severn Tunnel Junction to Cheltenham is unlikely to be electrified for some years. So, from Cardiff to Chepstow, Lydney, Gloucester & Cheltenham a diesel service will be needed. (This could perhaps have an extension to Ashchurch and Worcester).

So, with a half hourly Maesteg to Ebbw Vale electric service, having a path for a Swansea to Cardiff stopper could be difficult. How about it if this stopper was sent down the Vale Coast line via Llantwit Major and Rhoose to Cardiff? That would create a direct train service between Swansea and Cardiff Airport - almost - though a link to the terminal may be on the cards. The sizeable town of Barry would have direct trains to Swansea. People to/from Pyle & Baglan heading to/from Cardiff could change at Bridgend.

So, we half hourly stoppers on the mainline calling at Pontyclun & Llanharan making full use of the electrification project and we also have stoppers on the Swanline that use the Vale Coast Line instead of congesting the Bridgend to Cardiff section of the mainline.