Call it 400mi for the sake of a round figure.
400*4*.832 = 1331 Kg.
Round that out and you have a voyager burning around 1.3t - substantially less than the aircraft although our calculations don't take into account the difference in density between diesel and avtur, but that's fairly insignificant.
I'm not so sure a ratio of 1.5 is all that significant (Im actually shocked its that close to run a train vs a plane!)
But there is a lot more to it, possible benefits of air may include:
- What is the comparative loading: on average, how many empty seats are on the train per mile across the whole route, or more accurately on average for all seats on ALL services on a given day on the route. Is the plane full every trip? First say that Virgin's current West Coast loadings average only 35%!
- How much more load carrying capacity does each have, passengers, luggage, cargo, mail alongside passengers.
- How many non passenger-carrying miles are required for positioning for trains which planes don't have
- Beyond the cost of fuel (ignoring environmental concerns briefly) is the economic benefit brought by each mode to its users, such as speed and the extra productivity for a business person.
- Jet A1 is cheaper than low sulphur diesel
Then on the other hand, likely benefits of the train:
- Electric trains would be much more efficient per MWh
- Trains can be lengthened to greatly increase their efficiency
- A diesel train could be run on renewables
- A train is more flexible in terms of capacity, in terms of doubling up and accommodation of standing passengers
- The relative environmental harm done by burning 1 tonne of A1 at 35,000 feet compared to 1 tonne of ULSD at 3.5 feet.
So many variables and aspects to consider. These are just ideas, not much real evidence, but show you can't oversimplify this calculation. I think the answer is not that either form is significantly better or worse in this example but I think the train has much more upside in terms of possible and technically achievable efficiency gains. Double your Voyager up and you're probably going to widen the gap rapidly.