Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[HSTEd]

*grumbles about devolution*


Either way, I think it's fairly probable we'll exceed that. Maybe not by the ~3million that constitutes group 5.

The number of vaccines per day to reach the target was exceeded both today and yesterday, the two slowest days of the week.
I expect to hit the target several days early.

 

[Yew]

I would


The number of vaccines per day to reach the target was exceeded both today and yesterday, the two slowest days of the week.
I expect to hit the target several days early.

Indeed, 350k and 375K respectively. With a 7-day average of 408K per day, or 2.85Million a week.

If anyone want's to check the numbers as they update day to day, here's a link to the government dashboard.

 

[Domh245]

Does anyone know the ADULT population of the UK?

~53m is the number in the vaccine delivery plan

*grumbles about devolution*


Either way, I think it's fairly probable we'll exceed that. Maybe not by the ~3million that constitutes group 5.

Even if not the entirety of group 5, we'll have made decent headway at least.

England has managed 9.1 million of the 10 thus far and even with the current rolling average of 350k/day (which has been trending upwards) we'll have managed 13.3million, so around half of group 5

 

[HSTEd]

Some more second doses will have to commence somewhere about the first week in march, but they won't really pick up until the start of April since most of the first batch was already done.

(Only a couple hundred thousand total I think).

By end of march we will be on Cohort 8, even if vaccinate rates don't increase.

I would hope J&J will show up before then, and Novavax sometime a couple of weeks after that.

EDIT:

Government is supposedly targeting 5m/week for March, which is ~710,000 per day.
Which means we would off the end of the priority cohorts by the end of the month, probably.

A linear rate increase from now to the end of March, would give us something like 42 million doses total adminstered by the end of the month.

 

[Yew]

Even if not the entirety of group 5, we'll have made decent headway at least.

England has managed 9.1 million of the 10 thus far and even with the current rolling average of 350k/day (which has been trending upwards) we'll have managed 13.3million, so around half of group 5

Indeed, If we keep the current rates (even without increasing them) we could get a first dose into groups 1-9 by mid march?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Feb 2021 ==

Some more second doses will have to commence somewhere about the first week in march, but they won't really pick up until the start of April since most of the first batch was already done.

(Only a couple hundred thousand total I think).

By end of march we will be on Cohort 8, even if vaccinate rates don't increase.

I would hope J&J will show up before then, and Novavax sometime a couple of weeks after that.

EDIT:

Government is supposedly targeting 5m/week for March, which is ~710,000 per day.
Which means we would off the end of the priority cohorts by the end of the month, probably.

A linear rate increase from now to the end of March, would give us something like 42 million doses total adminstered by the end of the month.

The end of March, I presume?

 

[HSTEd]

The end of March, I presume?

I don't know, but probably.

But the way things are going.... it will depend on whether J&J arrives, and ofcourse J&J doesn't require a second dose to bite us later.

 

[Bantamzen]

It's the 3 week waiting period for the immune response to have taken effect that's the issue, and unsurprisingly, the 8th of March is 21 days on from 15th Feb - or VE day (vaccinated the elderly) as I'll now call it!

The immune system will in most people be responding almost immediately, and will ramp up thereafter. There is not an on switch that activates on the 3 week marker, that is just a modelling point at which most people reach a high enough level of immunity to be recorded. It doesn't mean no increased level of immunity prior to that period of time.

The roadmap in terms of removing restrictions would certainly be nice but given that many of the issues we've faced so far have been because of rushing to reopen, I'm certainly willing to accept a slightly slower easing this time around, especially as the 'end' is in sight.

Oh I'm sure everyone suffering from the consequences of lockdown is hanging onto when you feel comfortable to start to ease...

 

[hwl]

GSK having another attempt by throwing its lot in with Curevac (mRNA approach) after the initial failure of the Sanofli led attempt.

GSK and CureVac sign £132m deal to develop multi-variant Covid vaccine

Companies hope to have next generation of vaccines against emerging variants by next year

www.theguardian.com

GSK and CureVac sign £132m deal to develop multi-variant Covid vaccine​

Companies hope to have next generation of vaccines against emerging variants by next year

GlaxoSmithKline and Germany’s CureVac have reached a €150m (£132m) agreement to develop a next generation of Covid-19 vaccines targeting new emerging variants in the pandemic.
The two companies said they plan to work jointly to develop a vaccine that can address “multiple emerging variants in one vaccine”.


GSK, the UK’s second biggest pharmaceutical company, will also support the manufacture of up to 100m doses of CureVac’s first-generation Covid-19 vaccine candidate, CVnCoV, this year.
The exclusive agreement will lead to GSK and CureVac contributing resources and expertise to research, develop and manufacture a number of vaccine candidates, with the target of introducing the new vaccine next year. The project will develop mRNA vaccines, which inject genetic material into the body that contains the instructions to make the spike protein of the coronavirus. In response to these proteins, the body’s immune system is activated, offering protection against the coronavirus.
The companies said the increase in emerging variants that are more resistant to the current vaccines being administered, such as the variant first identified in South Africa, means the scientists need to “accelerate efforts” to develop new vaccines.
“We believe that next-generation vaccines will be crucial in the continued fight against Covid-19,” said GSK’s chief executive, Emma Walmsley. “This new collaboration builds on our existing relationship with CureVac and means that together we will combine our scientific expertise in mRNA and vaccine development to advance and accelerate the development of new Covid-19 vaccine candidates.”
The aim is for the next generation of new vaccines to be used to either protect people who have not been vaccinated or to serve as a booster “in the event that Covid-19 immunity gained from an initial vaccination reduces over time”.
GSK will have the exclusive rights to develop, manufacture and commercialise the new vaccine in all countries except Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The company will make an initial upfront payment of €75m and a further payment of €75m “conditional on the achievement of specific milestones”.
“With the help of GSK’s proven vaccine expertise, we are equipping ourselves to tackle future health challenges with novel vaccines,” said Franz-Werner Haas, the chief executive at CureVac.
Last month, GSK and its French partner Sanofi said the vaccine they are jointly developing would be delayed until the end of this year after failing to produce a strong enough immunity response in older people.

No UK orders for this vaccine (yet) but with GSK on board and UK manufacturing may mean orders - even they are pushed towards WHO programmes or new strain booster jabs in the future.

 

[brad465]

I don't know, but probably.

But the way things are going.... it will depend on whether J&J arrives, and ofcourse J&J doesn't require a second dose to bite us later.

According the Covid-19 ARG, they believe hospital deaths by the end of March will be down 86%, and admissions down 59% before that in early March. When they produced the report 2-3 weeks ago they suggested cases would drop 15%, citing lack of information about vaccine transmission reduction. However the Oxford vaccine results on that front have since come through showing reductions much higher than that, while new variants so far don't seem to greatly increase likelihood of serious illness and death.

How soon will we see the benefits of the vaccine rollout?

We will soon see a meaningful reduction in the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. But how soon?

www.covid-arg.com

 

[hwl]

The immune system will in most people be responding almost immediately, and will ramp up thereafter. There is not an on switch that activates on the 3 week marker, that is just a modelling point at which most people reach a high enough level of immunity to be recorded. It doesn't mean no increased level of immunity prior to that period of time.

With Pfizer the immunity started to kick in between day 10-12 post 1st jab
Each Square/Circle is a symptomatic case, if solid = serious
Blue = control group
Orangey brown = vaccinated group
x axis = days since injection, injection on day 0
y axis = % of study group

 

[nlogax]

With Pfizer the immunity started to kick in between day 10-12 post 1st jab
Each Square/Circle is a symptomatic case
Blue = control group
Orangey brown = vaccinated group

View attachment 89909

That's a great practical illustration of realistic expectations for wait times until the vaccine has properly done its thing. Thank you for posting it.

 

[hwl]

That's a great practical illustration of realistic expectations for wait times until the vaccine has properly done its thing. Thank you for posting it.

Ox/AZ and moderna are similar, I just got to the pfizer paper first - they also do better visuals than the other e.g. the above chart is colour blind friendly.

Outside of trials it is worth pointing out that it is usually 5 days before someone becomes symptomatic and potentially gets tested, hence 12 days in the trail is not 12 days in the community.
The case rate 14-21 days is higher than afterwards.

The unzoomed in chart is below:

 

[Pete_uk]

I know we dont know yet, but could it be that we need to keep a large rolling programme of vaccination going ad infinitum?

 

[Richard Scott]

I know we dont know yet, but could it be that we need to keep a large rolling programme of vaccination going ad infinitum?

Less likely than flu as coronaviruses don't mutate so rapidly. More normal mutations like we've seen (although seem to cause much paranoia) are to be expected but the vaccine is still suitable as it stands.

 

[packermac]

Less likely than flu as coronaviruses don't mutate so rapidly. More nor mutations like we've seen (although seem to cause much paranoia) are to be expected but the vaccine is still suitable as it stands.

I thought AZ were talking today (BBC News) about a new version in September for the needed revaccinations.

 

[HSTEd]

I thought AZ were talking today (BBC News) about a new version in September for the needed revaccinations.

Regular boosters may be a good idea what happens, and we have a currently uncommitted monster vaccine plant becoming available in summer, so no reason not to get started.

 

[Mojo]

I thought I’d post this here as I have seen this link on a post shared by my council. It’s also been linked to by an NHS Engagement Officer and appears on the NHS Stay Well Facebook page, so despite what the text on the page says, anyone who is 70 or older, or Clinically extremely vulnerable, can now book for their vaccine online even if they have not had their letter inviting them to book: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coron...irus-vaccination/book-coronavirus-vaccination

I know there’s text on the page advising you not to book until you’ve had a letter, but it’s been shared by enough official sources now, and I can confirm that it does work.

 

[nlogax]

Just found out I'll be in group 6 - in my forties, asthma sufferer but not severe. Suddenly quite excited about the prospect of getting an NHS invite letter in coming weeks!

 

[yorkie]

Lots of good videos on the Zoe app Youtube channel, including:

Professor Tim Spector discusses the ZOE COVID Symptom Study data on vaccines, which suggests the vaccine rollout is working, with a 53% reduction in positive infections after 12 days. Our data's also showing very few people experience anything other than a sore arm after vaccination. However, it's interesting that those who previously had COVID are far more likely to experience systemic after effects such as headaches and fatigue following vaccination.

As the deadline looms to get healthcare workers and the elderly or vulnerable vaccinated against COVID, experts discuss what we’ve so far learnt from the rapid roll out of new vaccines, including: The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines, including against new strains of the virus The similarities between vaccine after effects and symptoms of COVID-19 The reasons why some people aren’t yet willing to be vaccinated

 

[hwl]

Less likely than flu as coronaviruses don't mutate so rapidly. More normal mutations like we've seen (although seem to cause much paranoia) are to be expected but the vaccine is still suitable as it stands.

For mutations it is also worth bearing the Hoskins effect in mind - the body will try to use an existing pattern of antibody first if the immune system thinks it might be a close enough match, hence small changes in a vaccine might not lead to new pattern antibodies being made but existing ones used again so it might be slightly better to hold off and wait for a few more potential mutations before deciding on the final second iteration of vaccine design so that there is a bigger change and the body is more likely to produce new pattern antibodies.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Weekly vaccination data to 31/1 had 82.6% of 75-80 year olds and 35.2% of 70-75 year olds with first dose so will easily achieve cohorts 1-4 by 15/2. Ive heard from many sub 70 year olds now being called to make an appointment as well so they are pushing forward. The other stat not to be ignored is over 3m under 70 year olds have had 1st dose which is largely the health care sector thus boosting resources available at the frontline to manage patients. All in all this acting as a moderator to transmission rates as we are now seeing and by 15/2 the data should be very favourable.

 

[Dent]

Ive heard from many sub 70 year olds now being called to make an appointment as well so they are pushing forward.

That does rather complicate the tracking of the target of vaccinating Groups 1-4 if some of the headline number of doses given do not contribute to that target.

 

[Mojo]

That does rather complicate the tracking of the target of vaccinating Groups 1-4 if some of the headline number of doses given do not contribute to that target.

I think that may have been pretty hard to judge anyway if all the stories are true that leftover doses are being given to family members of healthcare staff, volunteers & staff at the centres, taxi drivers, carers, and those dropping off customers of the centres.

It would also be interesting how the number of refusers are being recorded and whether that will have an impact. It’s been reported on the news that a minority in certain ethnic groups are refusing in numbers that cause those in charge of the proceedings some concern.

 

[Busaholic]

My wife and I, both in the 70-74 age group, received our letters of intent to vaccinate in the same post this morning. Unfortunately, each letter inviting you to apply on the NHS website does not allow for the possibility that you might wish to be vaccinated in the same venue, on the same day, and as near as possible in time to each other, arriving in the same car as we would be. The venue wasn't a problem, but by the time my wife had secured a slot for Monday evening and then processed my details, my booking was for the next day. My wife managed to locate a telephone number, and someone actually answered it, but the person seemed perplexed at the idea of a couple trying to be seen one after the other: however, after twenty minutes, RESULT. Not only are we booked for the same time next Tuesday, but we have been allocated the same for a second jab in Apri! All I can say about that is none of various friends and acquaintances who've been vaccinated there over the last ten days, including today, was given a date for a second injection, so either it's a new initiative or the person at the end of the phone line didn't want to have to deal with my wife again - she can be very persuasive!

 

[Mojo]

My wife and I, both in the 70-74 age group, received our letters of intent to vaccinate in the same post this morning. Unfortunately, each letter inviting you to apply on the NHS website does not allow for the possibility that you might wish to be vaccinated in the same venue, on the same day, and as near as possible in time to each other, arriving in the same car as we would be. The venue wasn't a problem, but by the time my wife had secured a slot for Monday evening and then processed my details, my booking was for the next day. My wife managed to locate a telephone number, and someone actually answered it, but the person seemed perplexed at the idea of a couple trying to be seen one after the other: however, after twenty minutes, RESULT. Not only are we booked for the same time next Tuesday, but we have been allocated the same for a second jab in Apri! All I can say about that is none of various friends and acquaintances who've been vaccinated there over the last ten days, including today, was given a date for a second injection, so either it's a new initiative or the person at the end of the phone line didn't want to have to deal with my wife again - she can be very persuasive!

Someone I know made a booking yesterday on the link that I shared above. They were offered a slot for the next day and were also able to book their second appointment (and have choice about which venue it would be at) at the same time.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

That does rather complicate the tracking of the target of vaccinating Groups 1-4 if some of the headline number of doses given do not contribute to that target.

From the vaccine data 66% of over 70 year olds have had 1st dose what's not disclosed is specifically how many health care workers are in that cohort. What it does report is 3m under 70's have received first dose and there is an assessed 5m in the cohort 1-4 under 70 group so around 60% although there will be a number of volunteers and others who have used up surplus doses to avoid waste but can only be a few %. Furthermore, vax minister Zahawi statement to house yesterday advised the following

I’m pleased to inform the House that we’ve now vaccinated almost 9 in 10 over 80s in the UK, almost 9 in 10 over 75s and over half of people in their 70s.

We’ve also visited every eligible care home possible with older residents in England, and offered vaccinations to all their residents and staff.

This means we’re currently on track to meet our target of offering a vaccine to the 4 most vulnerable groups by mid-February.

This data would have been to 3/2 so would infer over 70% of over 70's have now had 1st dose. Im guessing you could also infer that an element of the 1 in 10 over 80's who haven't had 1st dose are either not medically able to have it or have declined it but 90% vaccination level is above the 80% threshold that epidemiologists reckon is needed for it to induce herd immunity.

 

[packermac]

Someone I know made a booking yesterday on the link that I shared above. They were offered a slot for the next day and were also able to book their second appointment (and have choice about which venue it would be at) at the same time.

My wife received a letter yesterday, both dates (first next Friday & May 7). Dates not moveable, only ring if you do not want the vaccine at all so the slot can be reused.

 

[hwl]

As I mused above 2 days ago on the formalising of the GSK / CureVac partnership for variant vaccines (GSK is also now a large shareholder in CureVac), the UK government has placed orders for new variant vaccines and setting up UK manufacturing plants.

UK orders 50m doses of Covid vaccines in fight against variants

Government to work with German firm CureVac on tackling potential mutations

www.theguardian.com

UK orders 50m doses of Covid vaccines in fight against variants

The UK government has signed a deal for at least 50m doses of vaccines that could combat new variants of coronavirus, and is to work with the German manufacturer to help develop them.

The Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) said it had struck the agreement with CureVac, which has already developed a first-generation vaccine that is undergoing large-scale clinical trials.

Under the plan, the BEIS’s statement said “UK expertise on genomics and virus sequencing” would help the company develop new varieties of mRNA vaccines, which inject “messenger” RNA (ribonucleic acid) into the body so it can produce antigens, if they are needed to combat variants resistant to existing vaccines.

The UK also said as part of the deal it had placed an initial order for 50m doses of new vaccines, which would be delivered later this year if needed.

It added: “The UK will use its partnership with CureVac to boost the UK’s capacity to develop and manufacture variant vaccines in the UK, strengthening our domestic capabilities.”

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Feb 2021 ==

Dates not moveable,

That isn't going to work so well for getting people vaccinated when they start reaching the working age population!

 

[HSTEd]

That isn't going to work so well for getting people vaccinated when they start reaching the working age population!

That is one of the reasons I am skeptical of attempting mass vaccination of the under 50s on an age basis.
I think it may have to turn into "jab whilst you wait" system, perhaps with web cams at the entrance so you can see how long the queue is remotely.

 

[Yew]

There's just no need for vaccinating the under 50's unless they have health conditions.