Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[hwl]

Both Pfizer and AstraZeneca are delivering the vaccine to the EU more slowly than they promised.

And Moderna is well behind in EU deliveries too.

The Sanofli /GSK vaccine which the EU had bet big on (especially for Q1 and Q2 2021 volume) is at least a year behind if it will ever get used. The Sanofli failure is getting a bit political in France (French scientific failure).

The EU vaccination plan involved a lot of Oxford AZ vaccine early on till end of Q2 2021 as producing larger volume is theoretically easier (slight hiccup in the Belgian plant case).

Under German pressure the EU signed up for a big additional BioNTech order but didn't realise the consequence was less vaccine in the short term!

Hence the EU is currently relying on less than expected volumes from it 2nd= (but low early volume) and 5th choice by volume options.

 

[35B]

What's that got to do with my question? If someone declares something superior I'd like some evidence, not really that odd a request is it?

The comment clearly referred to the point of view held by some authorities in Europe, which I make no comment on, that the AZ and Pfizer vaccines have particular advantages in particular groups. It will be for those authorities to be accountable to their populations as to whether their jdugements are right.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Both Pfizer and AstraZeneca are delivering the vaccine to the EU more slowly than they promised. In Pfizer's case because they need to partially shutdown the factory for a couple of months to retool, and in AZ's case because the factories they are opening in the EU are running behind schedule. Normally that would just be annoying - these things happen, and everybody is doing their best.

The EU, perhaps rightly, didn't place such a high priority on vaccines as their near neighbours (us). That meant that they were always going to be a couple of months behind us from the get-go. If we weren't nearby providing a yard-stick of what a fast rollout looks like the current EU rate of vaccination would be fine, even though the virus has flared up this winter more than the EU countries were hoping or expecting, and is causing them massive ongoing political tension. The fact that we are there though is making EU leaders, and the EU Commission in particular, look bad. In that circumstance, it looks particularly bad that we are getting more supplies right now than the entire EU is getting, and will be vaccinating some of our distinctly less vulnerable people while they still have unvaccinated over-80s.

The response is a collection of howling anti-British negativity, leading to claims that the "British" vaccine isn't all that good, which is just easy-to-ignore nonsense. At the same time though, they are trying to hoard the Pfizer vaccine (which isn't terribly outrageous, but isn't particularly helpful from an organisation dedicated to promoting trade and international cooperation). Alongside that, they are making demands that Astra-Zeneca divert some of the supplies they are sending to the UK so that they are failing to deliver on both the EU and the UK contracts roughly equally. There is probably an argument for that, particularly once we have vaccinated groups 1-4, but it's a far more difficult argument to make when they are blocking Pfizer from supplying both the UK and Canada.

Unfortunately the EU has a particularly mediocre Head of Commission at the minute, and a pretty bad Health Commissioner, and between them they are running around like headless chickens making everything worse.

Lets not forget we are already well down on deliveries that was promised by the Vaccine Task Force last November which themselves were already reduced from earlier forecasts. Presumably these figures quoted by Kate Bingham at the time were effectively based on our "contracted" agreements but there was no moaning in the UK at the time about this shortfall just a celebration we had some and could get on with it. As I say this is an EU problem we just need to keep out of it and let them bicker between each other. At the end of the day the world will be awash with multiple vaccines within a few months and that's the most important thing.

 

[notlob.divad]

No it isn't, they believe it's superior is not decent scientific evidence.

It doesn't need to be. It doesn't matter if it is more effective or not. You clearly miss understand the point I am making.

Just because they may think and are saying (justifiably or not) that it is not effective in the 65+ cohort, doesn't mean there is not a significantly large cohort where it would be used. Hence why they are pushing so hard to increase access.

 

[yorksrob]

It doesn't need to be. It doesn't matter if it is more effective or not. You clearly miss understand the point I am making.

Just because they may think and are saying (justifiably or not) that it is not effective in the 65+ cohort, doesn't mean there is not a significantly large cohort where it would be used. Hence why they are pushing so hard to increase access.

It kind of negates the "you're vaccinating your under sixties while our over eighties are still waiting" argument if they don't even want to use the said vaccine on their over eighties.

 

[notlob.divad]

What's that got to do with my question? If someone declares something superior I'd like some evidence, not really that odd a request is it?

I did not declare it superior. I simply stated that they would use (what they perceive as) the superior (as in more effective in the vulnerable cohort) vaccine in the vulnerable cohort.

It kind of negates the "you're vaccinating your under sixties while our over eighties are still waiting" argument if they don't even want to use the said vaccine on their over eighties.

Plenty of countries have decided to vaccinate health are workers before the most vulnerable.

The Sanofli /GSK vaccine which the EU had bet big on

This is a false statement. Proportionally the EU is no more reliant on the Sanofi/GSK vaccine than the UK.

I posted this yesterday in the 'brexit' thread but I guess it also has to be debunked here as well.

You don't have to read the test if you hate the Guardian, but the infor graphic at the bottom provides a good overview of the variaty of doses ordered for each market agaisnt their populations.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...es-investigation-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-plant
"Guardian graphic. Source: Duke Global Health Innovation Center. Data as of 25 January."

You will see that with the exception of the UK's support for the Novavax vaccine, the distribution of risk exposure to different suppliers is relatively similar.

 

[Richard Scott]

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Jan 2021 ==

I did not declare it superior. You are clearly lacking in your comprehension skills. I simply stated that they would use (what they perceive as) the superior (as in more effective in the vulnerable cohort) vaccine in the vulnerable cohort.

This is what you said "Because there are an awful lot of under 65 year old health care workers across the EU who the AZ vaccine would be ideal for. Thus allowing the superior Pfizer vaccine to be targeted at the vulnerable +65 age cohort."
So afraid you did declare it superior

 

[takno]

This is what you said "Because there are an awful lot of under 65 year old health care workers across the EU who the AZ vaccine would be ideal for. Thus allowing the superior Pfizer vaccine to be targeted at the vulnerable +65 age cohort."
So afraid you did declare it superior, I would request you refrain from your rudeness in future as my comprehension skills are perfectly fine.

The original comment was describing Macron's (and IIRC other European leaders' thinking). It was fairly clear in the context, to me at least. He was suggesting that Macron's opinions were based on Macron's belief it was superior, not that he himself believed it was superior.

I don't think anybody in this thread is stating that it's superior as a matter of objective fact.

 

[brad465]

According to this report in the FT, quoting estimates from the Covid-19 Actuaries Report Group (ARG), they are estimating the UK vaccine rollout so far has already made deaths in hospital 5-10% lower than without a vaccine, while under current rollout projections, deaths should be down 2/3 (67%) by the end of February, and around 85% by the end of March compared to no vaccine being used. On hospital admissions, they say by early March hospital admissions will be down 60% and ICU admissions 33% (this is based on the demographics most in need of hospital treatment not having been heavily reached by early March).

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(Apologies I can't quote text from the article directly into this post under the T&Cs of Copyright in the FT)

They don't give clarity on transmission reductions as this is still uncertain, but I do think given current infections and hospital admissions are already in a clear decline, as the weather improves and we move into a time hospitals are normally not as in demand a huge improvement in everything looks on the cards, providing the vaccine rollout continues as it is.

 

[HSTEd]

Turns out Fujifilm has not started making the Novavax vaccine in Billingham yet.

IT has emerged hundreds of employees at Fuijifilm Diosynth Biotechnologies in Billingham are involved in manufacturing the new Covid-19 vaccine - with work to begin in February.

There are approximately 800 workers on the Teesside site of the firm, 200 to 300 are "involved" in the Covid-19 vaccine manufacture.

 

[yorksrob]

Turns out Fujifilm has not started making the Novavax vaccine in Billingham yet.

To be fair, it's an impressive repurposing of existing manufacturing facilities.

 

[HSTEd]

To be fair, it's an impressive repurposing of existing manufacturing facilities.

The notional manufacturing capacity of the facility is about half a million doses per day however.
So once it starts to roll, it will roll quickly.

Just hope it starts arriving in April so we can keep the first dose pace up once the second doses start to come due.

 

[yorksrob]

The notional manufacturing capacity of the facility is about half a million doses per day however.
So once it starts to roll, it will roll quickly.

Just hope it starts arriving in April so we can keep the first dose pace up once the second doses start to come due.

Indeed, lets hope.

At least there won't be so many people waiting for their holiday snaps at the moment either !

 

[Chester1]

The notional manufacturing capacity of the facility is about half a million doses per day however.
So once it starts to roll, it will roll quickly.

Just hope it starts arriving in April so we can keep the first dose pace up once the second doses start to come due.

April is unlikely. I don't think they are contractually obligated to have the first vaccines ready for use until July, with the 60 million doses over 12 months. Its a lengthy production process (don't forget it has biological as well as chemical components). Novavax should be authorised fairly soon after the good trial results so they have every incentive to work as fast as possible. Hopefully they can start delivering a few weeks early.

 

[HSTEd]

April is unlikely. I don't think they are contractually obligated to have the first vaccines ready for use until July, with the 60 million doses over 12 months. Its a lengthy production process (don't forget it has biological as well as chemical components). Novavax should be authorised fairly soon after the good trial results so they have every incentive to work as fast as possible. Hopefully they can start delivering a few weeks early.

I would like to know why they are only starting now, when Valneva production has commenced even though they have only just started their Phase 1/2 trial!

EDIT:

The CEO of Novavax apparently gave an interview on Bloomberg a few days ago when he anticipated some doses being available for operational use in early April

Unfortunately American focused news, so I don't have anything in the article text itself, the interview is in an embedded video.

 

[hwl]

This is a false statement. Proportionally the EU is no more reliant on the Sanofi/GSK vaccine than the UK.

I posted this yesterday in the 'brexit' thread but I guess it also has to be debunked here as well.

You don't have to read the test if you hate the Guardian, but the infor graphic at the bottom provides a good overview of the variety of doses ordered for each market against their populations.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...es-investigation-of-astrazeneca-vaccine-plant
"Guardian graphic. Source: Duke Global Health Innovation Center. Data as of 25 January."

You will see that with the exception of the UK's support for the Novavax vaccine, the distribution of risk exposure to different suppliers is relatively similar.

The guardian info graphic is good (I'm a mondrian chart fan) but it doesn't show availability by date. For example it includes the production of the Pfizer jab for the EU from a second plant that will only start conversion for production in July 2021.

Charts based around available production in H1 and H2 2021 would be very interesting.

In early summer 2020 The Sanofli option was seen as sensible conservative option which should have had large available early volume based on their flu vaccine technology and production.

 

[6862]

Almost 600000 vaccine first doses delivered yesterday! The numbers seem to drop quite significantly on Monday - Wednesday looking at previous data, but even if they drop to 300000 per day for the next few days then increase back to yesterday's level that should put us on track for about 4 million this week.

 

[matt]

Almost 600000 vaccine first doses delivered yesterday! The numbers seem to drop quite significantly on Monday - Wednesday looking at previous data, but even if they drop to 300000 per day for the next few days then increase back to yesterday's level that should put us on track for about 4 million this week.

Good news. I'm not sure if the bad weather such as snow had any impact on the lower numbers earlier in the week.

 

[6862]

Good news. I'm not sure if the bad weather such as snow had any impact on the lower numbers earlier in the week.

Numbers dropped off in the first part of the previous week too, so I don't think it's possible to say it's certainly an effect of last week's weather.

 

[Domh245]

I think the patchy numbers is just down to how inconsistently numbers get reported - although the week average is almost 375,000 first doses a day (2.6m/week) which is good news indeed

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Almost 600000 vaccine first doses delivered yesterday! The numbers seem to drop quite significantly on Monday - Wednesday looking at previous data, but even if they drop to 300000 per day for the next few days then increase back to yesterday's level that should put us on track for about 4 million this week.

So just shy of 9m now with first dose is absolutely extraordinary and its silenced all those doomsters who said they couldn't even get to 300k/day at start of this month. This has happened because they are leaving it to the front line local teams to deliver and hopefully BoJo & Hancock will now realise that is the best way to fight this pandemic rather than outsourcing it to mates in consultancies.

Also responding now is cases which on 7 day case rate falling by nearly 30% over the last week although with ONS & REACT surveys showing less of a decline govt have another excuse to use. Hospital admissions are dropping back although trend has slowed down but overall numbers hospitalised continues to fall indicating discharges are exceeding admission for the first time for many weeks. Furthermore the case rates by admission age have dropped back considerably in >85 year olds - is this first signs of vaccine doing its job? Its also improving in the 65-84 age range as well.

The govt need to be more dynamic to wait another three before publishing the relaxation roadmap is looking increasingly out of kilter with the trends and the CRG need to push for this roadmap to be bought forward by at least a week.

 

[HSTEd]

The govt need to be more dynamic to wait another three before publishing the relaxation roadmap is looking increasingly out of kilter with the trends and the CRG need to push for this roadmap to be bought forward by at least a week.

I'm in no hurry for an earlier roadmap.

We need relaxation to be a slam dunk.
Indeed I think we would be better off if the roadmap was delayed by a week!

 

[Class 317]

I've seen reports today that early data from Israel shows very low case rates for those having 2 doses of the Pfizer vaccine which is very good news!

I've also seen reports of less good news with the new vaccines appearing to be less effective against the South African variant. Reports are I think that they are only 50% to 60% effective on this variant.

If this is the case it's quite worrying as it also puts in question whether natural immunity also will be less effective.

It could also mean a need to modify and revaccinate those who already have had the vaccine.

I should add that the Israeli data is preliminary and the data on the new vaccines was based on trails in South Africa over a period of time when the new variant was spreading but not always the dominant variant.

 

[hwl]

... and the data on the new vaccines was based on trails in South Africa over a period of time when the new variant was spreading but not always the dominant variant.

In recent trials they have done genomic testing to establish what strain the person had, hence they know whether the person had the older, "kent" (501Y) or South African (501Y + 484K) variants. (Both sets of interim trial results announced this week)

 

[HSTEd]

By the late summer we will have manufacturing plants for huge numbers of doses, if a variant vaccine is required it acn likely be deployed far more rapidly than the current vaccines.

Especially facilities like the Vaccine Innovation and Manufacturing Centre that AFAIK is not contracted to anyone else.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

I'm in no hurry for an earlier roadmap.

We need relaxation to be a slam dunk.
Indeed I think we would be better off if the roadmap was delayed by a week!

The roadmap is the criteria for how relaxation should proceed and the criteria that needs to be fulfilled the when will be an unknown but at least the people will can see how a way forward may evolve.

 

[Philip]

The rate of decline of cases looks slower in Yorkshire and possibly Greater Manchester. Is there a likely cause for this? It isn't just a 'northern' thing as Liverpool region is seeing a rapid reductions in cases comparable with London and the Midlands.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The rate of decline of cases looks slower in Yorkshire and possibly Greater Manchester. Is there a likely cause for this? It isn't just a 'northern' thing as Liverpool region is seeing a rapid reductions in cases comparable with London and the Midlands.

The "Kent" variant has been spreading out from London so maybe thats the cause but the good news is Kent areas were on the top 10 worst places for weeks in the run upto to Xmas but have declined rapidly. Case rates have dropped 70-80% through January so whilst it maybe more transmissible it does appear to be able to be driven down quite rapidly.

 

[Cdd89]

I see the Tony Blair Institute is now calling for vaccinating Key Workers from Groups 5 and below. As they preempted the dose gap expansion it is probably worth considering as a serious possibility.

How to Vaccinate Key Workers

institute.global

We believe any extra vaccine supply, plus any saved through avoiding wastage, should be given to priority key workers during the first phase of the vaccination programme (priority groups 1-4). Additional key workers would then be covered through a parallel stream of vaccination alongside priority groups 5-9. We set out options for how this stream could be set up. We also include a bespoke plan for teachers given the critical priority of reopening our schools. Existing supply should be used to vaccinate the top four priority groups by mid-February and should be kept for that purpose.

My thought on this is that there is nothing special about “key” workers, many of whom don’t necessarily work in roles that have high levels of transmission. For example restaurant workers would not be in this group but are potentially disproportionately large spreaders. This of close presumes we are intending to reopen hospitality in the near future but, given that we need to...

 

[HSTEd]

I see the Tony Blair Institute is now calling for vaccinating Key Workers from Groups 5 and below. As they preempted the dose gap expansion it is probably worth considering as a serious possibility.

How to Vaccinate Key Workers

institute.global

My thought on this is that there is nothing special about “key” workers, many of whom don’t necessarily work in roles that have high levels of transmission. For example restaurant workers would not be in this group but are potentially disproportionately large spreaders. This of close presumes we are intending to reopen hospitality in the near future but, given that we need to...

Every dose given to a photogenic key worker is a dose stolen from a vulnerable person.