Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[Busaholic]

Just seen on the 10 o clock news a source apparently said that the EU is to backtrack on invoking Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol.

Wiser counsel has prevailed, just as it (eventually) did when the U.K. backed down last month on breaking the terms of their E.U. Withdrawal Agreement.

 

[Chester1]

Just seen on the 10 o clock news a source apparently said that the EU is to backtrack on invoking Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol.

Still nothing official yet. I am astounded it was authorised. I don't buy that it was an oversight. Triggering article 16 is an emergency measure that has been in the news a lot this month because of Northern Ireland supply issues. They knew exactly what they were doing. Even if they withdraw it immediately, real damage has been done. Its shown people on both sides of the divide that the EU will throw Northern Ireland under the bus on supply of vaccines during a pandemic.

 

[takno]

Just seen on the 10 o clock news a source apparently said that the EU is to backtrack on invoking Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol.

Hmm. That could be quite clever. Be seen in Europe to be willing to do whatever it takes, and make them it clear that article 16 is so sacrosanct that they won't even do it over this. They can even come off looking like they're doing the decent thing while Britain hoards the vaccine.

 

[Chester1]

Hmm. That could be quite clever. Be seen in Europe to be willing to do whatever it takes, and make them it clear that article 16 is so sacrosanct that they won't even do it over this. They can even come off looking like they're doing the decent thing while Britain hoards the vaccine.

None of that changes the big picture, they screwed up, don't have enough vaccines for their citizens for the next 3 months and can't get hold of other countries supplies regardless of what they say or do. The UK supply is relatively modest. We won't be in much of a position to help other countries until Novatech and Valanta have produced millions, which won't be until the summer.

 

[duncanp]

I may be stupid, but if President Macron claims that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is almost ineffective for people over the age of 65, why is the E.U. so desperate to get its hands on more stocks of said vaccine?

 

[yorksrob]

I may be stupid, but if President Macron claims that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is almost ineffective for people over the age of 65, why is the E.U. so desperate to get its hands on more stocks of said vaccine?

This has been puzzling me. It doesn't seem to help their case in obtaining more of it to be rubbishing its effectiveness.

 

[takno]

I may be stupid, but if President Macron claims that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is almost ineffective for people over the age of 65, why is the E.U. so desperate to get its hands on more stocks of said vaccine?

I think it's because the EU is composed of 27 nation states, at least 20 of which are led by somebody a good bit smarter and less volatile than Macron.

 

[hwl]

I may be stupid, but if President Macron claims that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is almost ineffective for people over the age of 65, why is the E.U. so desperate to get its hands on more stocks of said vaccine?

1) huge vaccine scepticism in France
2) the French vaccination programme is a mess compared to the other big EU countries
3) French led vaccine efforts have either been cancelled or are way behind ("ready for 2022")

Hence Macron is hoping to take domestic pressure off for a few weeks to a month and they can get their act sorted.

Most other EU countries outside Germany (BioNTech home grown bias) and France really want the Ox-AZ vaccine because it is easier and cheaper.

 

[Cletus]

Macron also has a possible general strike next week to deal with.

 

[Yew]

Macron also has a possible general strike next week to deal with.

Related to Covid measures, or unrelated?

 

[notlob.divad]

I may be stupid, but if President Macron claims that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is almost ineffective for people over the age of 65, why is the E.U. so desperate to get its hands on more stocks of said vaccine?

This has been puzzling me. It doesn't seem to help their case in obtaining more of it to be rubbishing its effectiveness.

Because there are an awful lot of under 65 year old health care workers across the EU who the AZ vaccine would be ideal for. Thus allowing the superior Pfizer vaccine to be targeted at the vulnerable +65 age cohort.

 

[Cletus]

Related to Covid measures, or unrelated?

From the link I saw.

Grève générale et nationale le 4 février 2021

Toutes les infos sur la Grève générale et nationale le 4 février 2021, y compris les perturbations.

www.cestlagreve.fr

The demands relate to the government's recovery plan and its consequences on employment, wages, working conditions and social protection.

 

[Richard Scott]

Because there are an awful lot of under 65 year old health care workers across the EU who the AZ vaccine would be ideal for. Thus allowing the superior Pfizer vaccine to be targeted at the vulnerable +65 age cohort.

Where's the evidence the Pfizer is superior?

 

[notlob.divad]

Where's the evidence the Pfizer is superior?

I am not skilled enough to interpret the evidence. However it is irrelevant to the point I made.

If the EU countries and institutions believe the Pfizer to be superior (particularly in the response developed in the over 65s). Then that is all that matters for my point to be valid.

 

[hwl]

Macron also has a possible general strike next week to deal with.

And 14 months till general election!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

None of that changes the big picture, they screwed up, don't have enough vaccines for their citizens for the next 3 months and can't get hold of other countries supplies regardless of what they say or do. The UK supply is relatively modest. We won't be in much of a position to help other countries until Novatech and Valanta have produced millions, which won't be until the summer.

Remember we have also suffered a shortfall in deliveries that were promised by Vaccine Task Force by some margin but we've not made it a big deal like the EU is. The fact is development of vaccine was the way out but the certainty was low as to when and who would deliver one and we chose to cover a wider number of suppliers than the EU. I suspect this was driven in part by the need to being seen to do something after the death rate and bad press from wave one probably driven by the high level of deaths as well as the antipathy to anything being run by the EU as we had left it.

Im not so sure EU have screwed up they've just limited themselves to less choice but the real issue is the EU don't like member countries moaning about the EU and undermining the so called power of the collective of all countries working together.

The reality is there are viable vaccines that will work that will become available in due course in ever increasing quantities so EU need to manage within those constraints and we in Britain don't need to gloat over there problems and should keep out of it and let it play out as it shows when the chips are really down each country is inherently nationalistic.

 

[hwl]

I am not skilled enough to interpret the evidence. However it is irrelevant to the point I made.

If the EU countries and institutions believe the Pfizer to be superior (particularly in the response developed in the over 65s). Then that is all that matters for my point to be valid.

The EU were perfectly happy that the directly measured immune response (i.e.. specific antibody levels in blood stream) in older people is as good as younger and in line with that for the other vaccines.

They know that more data on effectiveness in older people is on the way hence noting that more data is on the way.

 

[notlob.divad]

The EU were perfectly happy that the directly measured immune response (i.e.. specific antibody levels in blood stream) in older people is as good as younger and in line with that for the other vaccines.

They know that more data on effectiveness in older people is on the way hence noting that more data is on the way.

I agree. Hence why the EMA have approved it for use in all age groups. But individual nations will tailor their vaccine rollout plans accordingly.

The point is that Macron saying AZ is quasi-ineffective in over 65s (irrespective of the claims accuracy) is not incompatible with a desire to get its hands on it as there are plenty of uses for it in health care workers.

 

[Richard Scott]

I am not skilled enough to interpret the evidence. However it is irrelevant to the point I made.

If the EU countries and institutions believe the Pfizer to be superior (particularly in the response developed in the over 65s). Then that is all that matters for my point to be valid.

No it isn't, they believe it's superior is not decent scientific evidence.

 

[yorksrob]

Surely now that we've given the AZ vaccine to our elderly, the question mark over its efficacy will be settled soon anyway.

 

[Bertie the bus]

I may be stupid, but if President Macron claims that the Astra Zeneca vaccine is almost ineffective for people over the age of 65, why is the E.U. so desperate to get its hands on more stocks of said vaccine?

It's just the old trick of throw as much mud as you can and hope some of it sticks. He blamed the UK, the manufacturers, the scientists who developed the vaccine. Deflect blame and hope people stop scrutinising your performance.

 

[brad465]

1) huge vaccine scepticism in France
2) the French vaccination programme is a mess compared to the other big EU countries
3) French led vaccine efforts have either been cancelled or are way behind ("ready for 2022")

Hence Macron is hoping to take domestic pressure off for a few weeks to a month and they can get their act sorted.

Most other EU countries outside Germany (BioNTech home grown bias) and France really want the Ox-AZ vaccine because it is easier and cheaper.

Related to Covid measures, or unrelated?

And 14 months till general election!

Trying to show oneself as a big hitter on international issues is the classic go to strategy for any leader who maybe worried about how they're perceived over domestic issues, so while it makes sense to be doing this over a botched vaccine rollout so far, this principle is hardly a new issue. Macron has done it for plenty of things; other suspected examples include the Novichok incident in Salisbury, for Putin just before his last re-election, and a number of incidents of the US assassinating terrorist leaders in the Middle East.

 

[Carlisle]

so EU need to manage within those constraints and we in Britain don't need to gloat over there problems and should keep out of it and let it play out as it shows when the chips are really down each country is inherently nationalistic.

Agreed, & hopefully our mainstream media will dig a little deeper on the issue & not simply offer a platform for endless Brexiteers to re run the entire anti EU agenda

 

[yorkie]

Surely now that we've given the AZ vaccine to our elderly, the question mark over its efficacy will be settled soon anyway.

We will get data from Israel first. In fact the data is starting to come through already and it is looking promising.

 

[yorksrob]

Presumably British installations are already manufacturing vaccines for the continent? Perhaps it might be diplomatically worthwhile to emphasise this if it is the case.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Jan 2021 ==

We will get data from Israel first. In fact the data is starting to come through already and it is looking promising.

That's good news !

 

[hwl]

We will get data from Israel first. In fact the data is starting to come through already and it is looking promising.

We won't. Israel are only using the Pfizer jab and not the Oxford /AZ one so we won't get effectiveness data for the Oxford/AZ vaccine in the elderly from them.
The Oxford AZ elderly effectiveness data will come from:
a) additional US phase 3 trial
b) using it in the UK and India

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Jan 2021 ==

Presumably British installations are already manufacturing vaccines for the continent? Perhaps it might be diplomatically worthwhile to emphasise this if it is the case.

Except they aren't. 100M doses at a min. 2M per week delivery rate for the UK before any export. The interesting question is what the start date was and how much catch up they are doing.

[Oxford Uni also happen to be a significant shareholder in one of the bulk manufacture plants which they started adapting in Feb 2020.]

 

[35B]

No it isn't, they believe it's superior is not decent scientific evidence.

And any chat on here is? That authorities judge based on the mixture of evidence they hold that one or other vaccine is better suited will allow them to form their vaccination plans. These are currently matters of judgement on the interpretation of scientific evidence as of hard fact.

 

[bramling]

There is much to be celebrated over our vaccination programme from covering off many potential sourcing opportunities to the extraordinary ramp up in daily vaccination levels largely being delivered by local teams in GPs' surgeries, community pharmacies and NHS hospital facilities. Our political leaders should limit themselves to showcasing this not trying to wind up the EU over whose top dog here. This is essentially an EU vs there members issue and we just need to sit it out and let them fight it out between the outspoken leaders like Macron and EU Commissioners.

Can someone spell out exactly what the vaccine “issue” actually is? I’ve done a fair bit of browsing and still can’t get my head around what the EU’s grievance is.

 

[takno]

Can someone spell out exactly what the vaccine “issue” actually is? I’ve done a fair bit of browsing and still can’t get my head around what the EU’s grievance is.

Both Pfizer and AstraZeneca are delivering the vaccine to the EU more slowly than they promised. In Pfizer's case because they need to partially shutdown the factory for a couple of months to retool, and in AZ's case because the factories they are opening in the EU are running behind schedule. Normally that would just be annoying - these things happen, and everybody is doing their best.

The EU, perhaps rightly, didn't place such a high priority on vaccines as their near neighbours (us). That meant that they were always going to be a couple of months behind us from the get-go. If we weren't nearby providing a yard-stick of what a fast rollout looks like the current EU rate of vaccination would be fine, even though the virus has flared up this winter more than the EU countries were hoping or expecting, and is causing them massive ongoing political tension. The fact that we are there though is making EU leaders, and the EU Commission in particular, look bad. In that circumstance, it looks particularly bad that we are getting more supplies right now than the entire EU is getting, and will be vaccinating some of our distinctly less vulnerable people while they still have unvaccinated over-80s.

The response is a collection of howling anti-British negativity, leading to claims that the "British" vaccine isn't all that good, which is just easy-to-ignore nonsense. At the same time though, they are trying to hoard the Pfizer vaccine (which isn't terribly outrageous, but isn't particularly helpful from an organisation dedicated to promoting trade and international cooperation). Alongside that, they are making demands that Astra-Zeneca divert some of the supplies they are sending to the UK so that they are failing to deliver on both the EU and the UK contracts roughly equally. There is probably an argument for that, particularly once we have vaccinated groups 1-4, but it's a far more difficult argument to make when they are blocking Pfizer from supplying both the UK and Canada.

Unfortunately the EU has a particularly mediocre Head of Commission at the minute, and a pretty bad Health Commissioner, and between them they are running around like headless chickens making everything worse.

 

[Richard Scott]

And any chat on here is? That authorities judge based on the mixture of evidence they hold that one or other vaccine is better suited will allow them to form their vaccination plans. These are currently matters of judgement on the interpretation of scientific evidence as of hard fact.

What's that got to do with my question? If someone declares something superior I'd like some evidence, not really that odd a request is it?