Vaccine Progress, Approval, and Deployment

[HSTEd]

The only things that will control this are increased immunity in the population, both by vaccinating as many as possible and existing immunity from additional people who've recently had it, and improving weather that's known to suppress respiratory viruses.

Thiss will be over before spring comes, I don't think Weather will be in a position to help

 

[yorksrob]

It's frustrating that there's no detail yet as to how it spreads more easily. Does it last longer on surfaces, does it linger longer in the air etc.

 

[mawallace]

Yes this news here suggesting the new variant puts R up by as much as 0.7 suggests just about no level of restrictions can have it under control, especially as winter is probably helping that R value right now:

Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7'

A study finds the new coronavirus variant is responsible for pushing the R rate above the crucial 1.0 mark.

www.bbc.co.uk

The only things that will control this are increased immunity in the population, both by vaccinating as many as possible and existing immunity from additional people who've recently had it, and improving weather that's known to suppress respiratory viruses.

I am puzzled by this latest article - if it is true that the r rate is increased by up to .7 then this means that the R rate would be 0.4 to 0.6 - as the R rate is estimated to be 1.1 to 1.3 - now I can't find when the R number was as low as 0.6 - even in the first lockdown?

Just opinion here as I’m trying to work out the “why” the change


2 furlough? Looking on gov uk site states furlough is to end of April

Furlough is an indication as to when they expect things to change - to be sure - but remember that furlough was going to end ummm. July 2020, then Sept 2010, then Nov 2019, now April 2021 - just saying...

 

[yorksrob]

Perhaps they need to be looking at ways of enabling age 50+ workers to stay at home for a couple of months.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Perhaps they need to be looking at ways of enabling age 50+ workers to stay at home for a couple of months.

Absolutely its quite clear that shielding the vulnerable groups is the only way to support the NHS now until they can be vaccinated which is a matter of weeks so not an unreasonable ask.

 

[chris11256]

Without going to far off topic, there does need to be some serious thinking to get the vaccine rolled out as soon as possible. I think the Government/Sage are starting to panic as we may be reaching a stage where another lockdown won't help us. As was mentioned in this thread and others, during the first lockdown R only went down to roughly 0.6, meaning that a repeat of that still wouldn't reduce cases and that was with everything shut & only allowed out once a day. Are the government really going to go so far as to barricade everyone inside their houses with no legal reasons for going out.

Everything and the kitchen sink and then some needs to be thrown at this vaccine roll out to get it happening 24/7. It's the only realistic way out of this.

 

[yorksrob]

Absolutely its quite clear that shielding the vulnerable groups is the only way to support the NHS now until they can be vaccinated which is a matter of weeks so not an unreasonable ask.

I've been coming to this conclusion, given the uptick in new cases associated with the new strain. It does seem more likely to preserve life and alleviate pressures on the NHS in the short term.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Without going to far off topic, there does need to be some serious thinking to get the vaccine rolled out as soon as possible. I think the Government/Sage are starting to panic as we may be reaching a stage where another lockdown won't help us. As was mentioned in this thread and others, during the first lockdown R only went down to roughly 0.6, meaning that a repeat of that still wouldn't reduce cases and that was with everything shut & only allowed out once a day. Are the government really going to go so far as to barricade everyone inside their houses with no legal reasons for going out.

Everything and the kitchen sink and then some needs to be thrown at this vaccine roll out to get it happening 24/7. It's the only realistic way out of this.

The main problem is that the limiting factor seems to be production rather than logistics. The 2 million doses a week does seem to be a hard limit based on what can be produced. Throwing the kitchen sink at this won't make those factories any quicker.

 

[bramling]

Without going to far off topic, there does need to be some serious thinking to get the vaccine rolled out as soon as possible. I think the Government/Sage are starting to panic as we may be reaching a stage where another lockdown won't help us. As was mentioned in this thread and others, during the first lockdown R only went down to roughly 0.6, meaning that a repeat of that still wouldn't reduce cases and that was with everything shut & only allowed out once a day. Are the government really going to go so far as to barricade everyone inside their houses with no legal reasons for going out.

Everything and the kitchen sink and then some needs to be thrown at this vaccine roll out to get it happening 24/7. It's the only realistic way out of this.

The only way they’d manage to even start to pull off a “barricade yourselves indoors” style lockdown is by attempting to install fear back into the population, and I don’t think that would work as there’s enough people who are now at the point of being past caring.

It does surprise me that a year in and we still don’t really seem to know what the main forms of spread are.

 

[yorksrob]

Without going to far off topic, there does need to be some serious thinking to get the vaccine rolled out as soon as possible. I think the Government/Sage are starting to panic as we may be reaching a stage where another lockdown won't help us. As was mentioned in this thread and others, during the first lockdown R only went down to roughly 0.6, meaning that a repeat of that still wouldn't reduce cases and that was with everything shut & only allowed out once a day. Are the government really going to go so far as to barricade everyone inside their houses with no legal reasons for going out.

Everything and the kitchen sink and then some needs to be thrown at this vaccine roll out to get it happening 24/7. It's the only realistic way out of this.

I think that special consideration needs to be made for the "quite vulnerable" category whilst the vaccine is rolled out.

 

[Snow1964]

It’s still a monumental ask, how many can be done each hour, probably 15-20 max as batch numbers need noting down and people need to move to chair where jabs are given

So one person could probably do 100 per day, so if want to do 200,000 per day need to find 2000 trained staff (who aren’t required elsewhere).

Of course many more needed for logistics of distribution of vaccine, to make appointments (and not everyone will be able to turn up at offered time/location) then process paperwork recording, and recalling for second instalment etc

 

[bramling]

I've been coming to this conclusion, given the uptick in new cases associated with the new strain. It does seem more likely to preserve life and alleviate pressures on the NHS in the short term.

Whilst there are some people who claim to be only too happy to brick their windows and doors up from the inside, I get the feeling there’s a subset of people who seem to think that the rest of the world should stop to allow them to continue doing what they want to do.

I had a woman earlier who was in a rage because there was someone without a mask in each of the carriages of the train she was wanting to board. Waiting a few minutes for the next train wasn’t an option - “I shouldn’t have to”. In the end I couldn’t help but suggest that she had an over-rated view of her own value, and left her to fume.

 

[yorksrob]

In terms of the new strain, I've been noting cases in Kent as I have family there, and they do now appear to be declining. How far and how quick, who knows.

 

[bramling]

In terms of the new strain, I've been noting cases in Kent as I have family there, and they do now appear to be declining. How far and how quick, who knows.

It’s interesting that pretty much every part of the UK has been a hotspot at some point or other, the only bits which seemed to have avoided this are the far south-west, and a couple of bits of more rural Wales.

Are there any other areas which have been relatively unscathed?

 

[Yew]

I do wonder if this higher R is simply due to lower compliance with restrictions?

 

[yorksrob]

Whilst there are some people who claim to be only too happy to brick their windows and doors up from the inside, I get the feeling there’s a subset of people who seem to think that the rest of the world should stop to allow them to continue doing what they want to do.

I had a woman earlier who was in a rage because there was someone without a mask in each of the carriages or the train she was wanting to board. Waiting a few minutes for the next train wasn’t an option - “I shouldn’t have to”. In the end I couldn’t help but suggest that she had an over-rated view of her own value, and left her to fume.

Well, it seems that we're all heading for lockdown of some sort anyway. It seems pointless forcing those more at risk out and about to work.

 

[bramling]

Well, it seems that we're all heading for lockdown of some sort anyway. It seems pointless forcing those more at risk out and about to work.

Agreed. My understanding is that anyone who is in the extremely vulnerable group and in a tier 4 area is not at work. This is possibly what’s driving some of the railway coverage issues.

As ever there continues to be the issue that there’s only so much those at work can actually be expected to do to cover for others on a constant basis.

 

[Solent&Wessex]

I do wonder if this higher R is simply due to lower compliance with restrictions?

It wouldn't surprise me.

Where I live we have been in some form of additional restrictions banning household mixing since early September or thereabouts. Many people are now sick and tired of sitting at home like hermits not actually meeting or socialising with anybody else at all, and have started to socialise in houses. Not in huge numbers, not big parties, but perhaps having 2 or 3 friends round one evening. To be honest if I wasn't doing the same I think I would have gone completely mad by now as there is only so much of my own company I can enjoy.

 

[Bertie the bus]

I am puzzled by this latest article - if it is true that the r rate is increased by up to .7 then this means that the R rate would be 0.4 to 0.6 - as the R rate is estimated to be 1.1 to 1.3 - now I can't find when the R number was as low as 0.6 - even in the first lockdown?

You are right to be puzzled. In the last 2 weeks it has been up to 93% more infectious, then 70%, then 54%, then hardly more infectious at all and now back up to 70%. It's the usual of the media just racing to print the latest guess without any reference to anything that has gone before it.

 

[yorksrob]

Agreed. My understanding is that anyone who is in the extremely vulnerable group and in a tier 4 area is not at work. This is possibly what’s driving some of the railway coverage issues.

As ever there continues to be the issue that there’s only so much those at work can actually be expected to do to cover for others on a constant basis.

This is true. I must admit, I'm fully expecting the old Northern Rail situation back before too long for this reason. I'll try to moan less.

 

[kez19]

I am puzzled by this latest article - if it is true that the r rate is increased by up to .7 then this means that the R rate would be 0.4 to 0.6 - as the R rate is estimated to be 1.1 to 1.3 - now I can't find when the R number was as low as 0.6 - even in the first lockdown?

Furlough is an indication as to when they expect things to change - to be sure - but remember that furlough was going to end ummm. July 2020, then Sept 2010, then Nov 2019, now April 2021 - just saying...

Forever changing... sorry moving goalposts!

 

[hwl]

I am puzzled by this latest article - if it is true that the r rate is increased by up to .7 then this means that the R rate would be 0.4 to 0.6 - as the R rate is estimated to be 1.1 to 1.3 - now I can't find when the R number was as low as 0.6 - even in the first lockdown?

Furlough is an indication as to when they expect things to change - to be sure - but remember that furlough was going to end ummm. July 2020, then Sept 2010, then Nov 2019, now April 2021 - just saying...

The R with current restrictions etc. for the new strain is 0.7 higher than for the older strains e.g. if R with the old strain with current restrictions was 1.0, the R with current restrictions and the new strain would be 1.7. Given that the new strain is under half the total case numbers you end up with a current R of 1.3

 

[kez19]

I'm no expert in all this R number so apologies but if I remember correctly back i'll use the travellingtabby as reference here: but just use the Scottish one I see back in March roughly speaking it was 4.3-5.8 (argument sake that was UK wide) and looking at it now we are at least 1.1, so why the big panic? I thought they be glad its low not as high way back earlier!

Scotland Coronavirus Tracker

Current and historical data of the Coronavirus outbreak in Scotland. Includes breakdowns by region, maps, charts, and more!

www.travellingtabby.com

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

It does surprise me that a year in and we still don’t really seem to know what the main forms of spread are.

It annoys me profusely that they throw money at Serco for test track and trace but don't galvanise academia and pay them to undertake serious analysis on where transmission is occurring.

Agreed. My understanding is that anyone who is in the extremely vulnerable group and in a tier 4 area is not at work. This is possibly what’s driving some of the railway coverage issues.

As ever there continues to be the issue that there’s only so much those at work can actually be expected to do to cover for others on a constant basis.

Indeed they ought scale back services again so they can cover.

 

[hwl]

I do wonder if this higher R is simply due to lower compliance with restrictions?

That will be part of the picture. But some new US analyses of the UK data for the new strain attempting to start to try to answer some of those type of questions has put the minimum lowest amount of increase in transmissibility due the mutations at 20% increase in transmission and probably more as that is the minimum bound. i.e. It can't be all down to lower compliance.
(Multiple total estimates for increase in transmission coming in the 50-70% range.)

 

[Bertie the bus]

The R with current restrictions etc. for the new strain is 0.7 higher than for the older strains e.g. if R with the old strain with current restrictions was 1.0, the R with current restrictions and the new strain would be 1.7. Given that the new strain is under half the total case numbers you end up with a current R of 1.3

Which proves absolutely nothing. A lot of it depends on which parts of the population the new variant is most entrenched as schools weren't affected by any of the restrictions and they have only been off for just over 1 week and it takes up to 2 weeks before any changes reflect in increases or decreases in the number of infections.

 

[HSTEd]

I am puzzled by this latest article - if it is true that the r rate is increased by up to .7 then this means that the R rate would be 0.4 to 0.6 - as the R rate is estimated to be 1.1 to 1.3 - now I can't find when the R number was as low as 0.6 - even in the first lockdown?

That would assume all cases are of the new variant - which they aren't (yet)

 

[hwl]

I'm no expert in all this R number so apologies but if I remember correctly back i'll use the travellingtabby as reference here: but just use the Scottish one I see back in March roughly speaking it was 4.3-5.8 (argument sake that was UK wide) and looking at it now we are at least 1.1, so why the big panic? I thought they be glad its low not as high way back earlier!

Scotland Coronavirus Tracker

Current and historical data of the Coronavirus outbreak in Scotland. Includes breakdowns by region, maps, charts, and more!

www.travellingtabby.com

1.0 with current restriction for the older strains but 1.7 with the newer strains. The no restriction R for the new strain would be noticably higher than the March one for that strain for comparison purposes.

 

[yorksrob]

Given that we have a factory producing the Oxford vaccine, there's a justification for saying that all production ought to go to the UK for the timebeing. Particularly as its in other countries' interests for us to surpress the mutant strain.

 

[kez19]

1.0 with current restriction for the older strains but 1.7 with the newer strains. The no restriction R for the new strain would be noticably higher than the March one for that strain for comparison purposes.

Where does the .7 come from or is that a rough estimate? (nothing at you), surprised it wasn’t .5 or .10