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Definitely. The Oxford vaccine is the one that's going to be the game changer for us as then the issue will become our ability to deliver it rather than how many we've actually got!
The fact that the efficacy (the ability to produce the desired result) of the Oxford vaccine is "only" 62% with two full doses, doesn't really matter.
For one thing, the seasonal flu vaccine has an efficacy of 50%, and the point is that it provides a significant reduction in the number of people who catch flu, and the number of people that are hospitalised with flu.
Similarly with the Oxford vaccine for COVID-19, which will reduce by nearly two thirds the number of people who develop serious symptoms and require hospitalisation, which significantly reduces the pressure on the NHS.
The fact that it is manufactured here in the UK, and is easier to store and transport, and that is costs considerably less than the other vaccines, is also a game changer.
Then COVID-19 will become no more of a threat than seasonal flu, which should enable most of the restrictions to be lifted progressively during the first half of 2021.
I think the teams who developed all the vaccines that eventually get approved (Oxford, Pfizer and Moderna) should be jointly nominated for the Nobel prize for medicine next year.
Then COVID-19 will become no more of a threat than seasonal flu, which should enable most of the restrictions to be lifted progressively during the first half of 2021.
I am not suggesting that all restrictions are lifted immediately, or that we should simply go back to the situation as it was before March this year.
What I said was that restrictions should be lifted progressively, so that as more people are vaccinated, it is likely that, even if they are infected with COVID-19, there will be any serious consequences (ie. less likely to require hospitalisation)
Those who are clinically vulnerable should be cautious, and in particular avoid large crowds or "superspreader" events, without necessarily locking themselves away completely.
Another thing that should happen next winter is to make the seasonal flu jab available to considerably more people. This will reduce the effect of flu on the NHS, thus freeing up more resources to cope with COVID-19.
The aim of the vaccination program should be to reduce the prevalence of COVID-19 to a manageable level, so that the NHS can cope, and people are able to resume something approaching normal life and economic activity.
The 62% relates to the rate of infection, so for every 100 cases in the control group there were 38 in the vaccine group.
However the big difference is that whilst there were still cases of hospitalisation and deaths in the control group there where NONE within the vaccine group. That means that the efficacy for hospitalisation and deaths could be quite high.
It's difficult to know the exact rate as the numbers being infected with the virus were too low to know how it performs at this. However it is likely that it could result in much fewer hospital admissions and therefore even fewer deaths.
As I've pointed out before, the Oxford trails tested for Covid, whilst the others were only relying on symptoms to identify infections. As such you'd always expect the Oxford vaccine to have a lower efficacy rate as it's going to pick asymptomatic cases which the others don't. It's why the half/full dose, where it's got a figure of 90%, is likely to be quite exciting because it could be much higher than that.
The other thing which could be interesting is the outcome of the trails where they give two doses of different vaccines, as that could result in high figures too.
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The fact that the efficacy (the ability to produce the desired result) of the Oxford vaccine is "only" 62% with two full doses, doesn't really matter.
For one thing, the seasonal flu vaccine has an efficacy of 50%, and the point is that it provides a significant reduction in the number of people who catch flu, and the number of people that are hospitalised with flu.
Similarly with the Oxford vaccine for COVID-19, which will reduce by nearly two thirds the number of people who develop serious symptoms and require hospitalisation, which significantly reduces the pressure on the NHS.
The fact that it is manufactured here in the UK, and is easier to store and transport, and that is costs considerably less than the other vaccines, is also a game changer.
Then COVID-19 will become no more of a threat than seasonal flu, which should enable most of the restrictions to be lifted progressively during the first half of 2021.
I think the teams who developed all the vaccines that eventually get approved (Oxford, Pfizer and Moderna) should be jointly nominated for the Nobel prize for medicine next year.
The Oxford vaccine is being manufactured around the world (each location making the whole vaccine) including at the largest vaccine production plant in the world in India.
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am I correct in thinking we already have the Oxford vaccine manufactured and ready for use we just have to wait until it’s approved before it starts getting used.
There's been a fair amount of it made (at risk), however it's not going to be enough for everyone, I believe that by the end of 2021 there's capacity to make 3 billion doses. That's going to make a big impact (given that about 25% of the world's population are under 14 and so a fair chunk of that 2 billion people wouldn't need a vaccine and so it's probably about 6bn people worldwide who need a vaccine), that means just using the Oxford vaccine we'd be able to about 1/4 of all of those who need one.
That excludes anything that any of the other vaccines can deliver and any other increase in vaccine production which is created to aid with the rollout (probably wouldn't justify new production plants, but it could be that other science based manufacturing could be repurposed to increase capacity).
Several million doses a week would be truly phenomenal, that could result in the most vulnerable being vaccinated by the start of March, rather than by the end.
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Several million doses a week would be truly phenomenal, that could result in the most vulnerable being vaccinated by the start of March, rather than by the end.
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I don't think there is any claim of a 62% reduction in fatalities, it was a 62% reduction in positive PCR tests, i.e. infections.
Agreed no fatalities in either vaccinated or control groups in the trial so no data on reduction in fatalities.
In the Oxford AZ and Moderna trials there were no hospitalisations let alone ICU hospitalisations in the vaccinated groups so theoretically 100% effective at that so far but numbers too small to attach significance too.
I just saw (about 2 hours ago), the vaccination clinic at my GPs surgery as I walked by. They were vaccinating in the corridors and waiting area. At least 50 people in there when I passed.
Not sure how accurate this is but this calculator that estimates when you will be offered the vaccine. Based on a vaccination rate of 1millon per week and a 70% acceptance rate.
Not sure how accurate this is but this calculator that estimates when you will be offered the vaccine. Based on a vaccination rate of 1millon per week and a 70% acceptance rate.
Given this new strain mainly in London and Southeast, do people here think vaccination program should be amended to prioritise Tier Four areas to reduce spread of this new strain?
Given this new strain mainly in London and Southeast, do people here think vaccination program should be amended to prioritise Tier Four areas to reduce spread of this new strain?
By the time they get round to approving and rolling out the Oxford/AZ vaccine to a large proportion of the population the new strain will be dominant in all parts of the country.
The older strains could be almost extinct in new transmission in London and SE by New Year.
My mum works as a nurse at a GP practice but has been a vaccination specialist for many years - name any country in the world and off-hand she'll tell you what jabs you need! She says they've started in earnest with the over 80s and care workers. The only issue they're having - even though it's at a fairly large conference centre in the South East - is the requirements for social distancing. They want individuals to wait 15 minutes after the jab to judge for any adverse reactions; as she said to me, you don't want people having an anaphylactic shock in the car. So people are bunching up a bit. Once the Pfizer vaccine arrives you obviously have the 5 days, but once the saline segment is in they only have 6 hours to administer the jab. It's pretty much been 99% the target group (they're vaccinating from 0800-2000), but there have been a few towards the tail end of the day given to the few people in the right place at the right time.
. It's pretty much been 99% the target group (they're vaccinating from 0800-2000), but there have been a few towards the tail end of the day given to the few people in the right place at the right time
Given this new strain mainly in London and Southeast, do people here think vaccination program should be amended to prioritise Tier Four areas to reduce spread of this new strain?
Which makes sense as once your in lose it or use it territory you ruddy well use it so what if it ends up being people who aren't technically a priority yet!
Which makes sense as once your in lose it or use it territory you ruddy well use it so what if it ends up being people who aren't technically a priority yet!
As I've saying for a while the winter : summer prevalence in the traditionally widely circulating human coronaviruses is 9:1, winter was always going to be a problem.
The proportion of the new problems strain in the Tier 4 areas is growing hence it is outcompeting the other strains
Thinking out loud. 500,000 people have been vaccinated. That's 1 in 100 of the population (excluding children). At any given time 1 in 100 has the virus. The vast vast majority of them will recover and have a level of immunity. So in let's say 3 weeks or so, 1 in 50 will be immune. Plus all the people who've had it recently like me, and probably everyone who's had it since the outbreak. That doesn't sound much, but that number is only going to go in one direction. Just a positive thought to counter Professors Doom and Gloom.
According to some relatives abroad their media is reporting that the COVID vaccine is effective against the new “mutant covid strain” which is good news especially for those concerned that the vaccination program could all be in vain because of the new strain.
Thinking out loud. 500,000 people have been vaccinated. That's 1 in 100 of the population (excluding children). At any given time 1 in 100 has the virus. The vast vast majority of them will recover and have a level of immunity. So in let's say 3 weeks or so, 1 in 50 will be immune. Plus all the people who've had it recently like me, and probably everyone who's had it since the outbreak. That doesn't sound much, but that number is only going to go in one direction. Just a positive thought to counter Professors Doom and Gloom.
And the number vaccinated per week will rise. The first two weeks of the roll out of a new vaccine granted under an emergency licence are not going to reflect the average week during the next few months. The real game changer will be the Oxford vaccine.
According to some relatives abroad their media is reporting that the COVID vaccine is effective against the new “mutant covid strain” which is good news especially for those concerned that the vaccination program could all be in vain because of the new strain.
That outcome isn't surprising as the vaccine teachers the body to attack the spike proteins which would mean that the virus would have to change significantly to overcome it.
That's not too say that it can't happen, busy that it's a significant change and it's fairly key to how the virus works.
It would be like asking people to get around using monkey bars, some would manage, but it's going to be a lot harder than was the case before, meaning that you can't travel as far, or do as much as you could before.
It would be like asking people to get around using monkey bars, some would manage, but it's going to be a lot harder than was the case before, meaning that you can't travel as far, or do as much as you could before.
Technically correct but it looks like the increase in transmissibility is due to just <0.05% change, the other 0.95% of change not doing anything noticeable.
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