ULEZ Expansion (and being forced into changing cars).

[tomuk]

There's simply no need to use a diesel car when petrol ones exist. Yes, it would be better to go without a car altogether. I actually have fully electric heating in my flat.

In the grand stream of things there is nothing wrong with a diesel car it is better climate change for a start. Definitely no reason to go out of your way to get rid of one. Or do you think the owners of the 11.5 million cars on the roads are somehow morally bankrupt?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jul 2023 ==

If that was the main reason then surely it would be better to have the charge impact on more vehicles.

Current (March 2023) road usage suggests that 90% of vehicle trips within the zone would not be subject to the charge, given the fuss chance are that rate will fall before the expansion happens and will likely fall further within the first 3 months.

If you were to drive in London would your vehicle be subject to the charge?

Actually, it would be interesting to know how many who follow this thread (regardless of where they live) actual have a vehicle which would be subject to the charge.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jul 2023 ==

Created a new thread with a poll, let's see how it goes:

ULEZ - Plans (and would you have to pay?)

If you are unsure use the TfL checker: https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/check-your-vehicle/ As all ULEZ's use the same criteria

www.railforums.co.uk

23% of the cars on the road are pre 2016 Diesel so would be liable plus another 6.5% are pre 2006 petrol.

 

[Trainbike46]

In the grand stream of things there is nothing wrong with a diesel car it is better climate change for a start. Definitely no reason to go out of your way to get rid of one. Or do you think the owners of the 11.5 million cars on the roads are somehow morally bankrupt?

I think you're taking a person's statement about what they would be comfortable with to do themselves, as a moral judgement on other people, when it almost certainlty wasn't intended as such

 

[The Ham]

In the grand stream of things there is nothing wrong with a diesel car it is better climate change for a start. Definitely no reason to go out of your way to get rid of one. Or do you think the owners of the 11.5 million cars on the roads are somehow morally bankrupt?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jul 2023 ==


23% of the cars on the road are pre 2016 Diesel so would be liable plus another 6.5% are pre 2006 petrol.

Including 11 diesel cars registered in 1950 (and a few before then, including some as old as from the 1920's), which are hardly likely to be used regularly in an urban setting.

The point being that not every one of the vehicles is in daily use.

As such, whilst the overall percentage (circa 30%) may be quite high, the actual number in daily use is likely to be much lower.

Also, given the ULEZ has existed before, it may well be that within use in and around outer London the number could well be below the national average.

It also assumes that there's no alternative vehicle (not relevant for those within the zone but could be for those just outside it).

One other thing to note, as time goes by the number of registered cars in a given year falls, for example between 2021 and 2022 the number of diesel cars from just 2011 fell by 25,000 (a fall of 4% of the number of diesel cars still registered in 2011). As such it's likely that for 2023 the number of diesel cars which fall short of the standard for exception is likely to fall (as will the number likely to actually to have to pay).

 

[bramling]

If that was the main reason then surely it would be better to have the charge impact on more vehicles.

Current (March 2023) road usage suggests that 90% of vehicle trips within the zone would not be subject to the charge, given the fuss chance are that rate will fall before the expansion happens and will likely fall further within the first 3 months.

If you were to drive in London would your vehicle be subject to the charge?

Actually, it would be interesting to know how many who follow this thread (regardless of where they live) actual have a vehicle which would be subject to the charge.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 25 Jul 2023 ==

Created a new thread with a poll, let's see how it goes:

ULEZ - Plans (and would you have to pay?)

If you are unsure use the TfL checker: https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/check-your-vehicle/ As all ULEZ's use the same criteria

www.railforums.co.uk

I have one. My 2003 BMW E39. I don’t need to use it for London journeys, so it doesn’t immediately affect me, but every now and again I do take it to London.

What gets my back up the most is that not being a London resident I have no say in this, hence why I regard the London Mayor as illegitimate. It doesn’t help that I absolutely despise all three of them - indeed it really doesn’t reflect well on London that they have managed to elect utterly odious individuals every time, nor that this seems to be part of the role’s JD.

 

[tomuk]

Including 11 diesel cars registered in 1950 (and a few before then, including some as old as from the 1920's), which are hardly likely to be used regularly in an urban setting.

The point being that not every one of the vehicles is in daily use.

As such, whilst the overall percentage (circa 30%) may be quite high, the actual number in daily use is likely to be much lower.

Also, given the ULEZ has existed before, it may well be that within use in and around outer London the number could well be below the national average.

It also assumes that there's no alternative vehicle (not relevant for those within the zone but could be for those just outside it).

One other thing to note, as time goes by the number of registered cars in a given year falls, for example between 2021 and 2022 the number of diesel cars from just 2011 fell by 25,000 (a fall of 4% of the number of diesel cars still registered in 2011). As such it's likely that for 2023 the number of diesel cars which fall short of the standard for exception is likely to fall (as will the number likely to actually to have to pay).

The point being made is that you seem to want to minimise the issue at all costs. Of the 7.6 million diesels registered 5.3 million were first registered between 2010 and 2015 and a more likely to be in daily use than your 10 diesels from 1950.

 

[The Ham]

The point being made is that you seem to want to minimise the issue at all costs. Of the 7.6 million diesels registered 5.3 million were first registered between 2010 and 2015 and a more likely to be in daily use than your 10 diesels from 1950.

Being pedantic it was 11 diesels from 1950, not 10. However, the point stands. Also as of 2022 there's 9.329 million diesel cars of which 4.295 million were registered between 2010 and 2015, source:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1162897/veh1111.ods

(Link to spreadsheet)

I'm not denying that there's a lot of diesels from 2010 to 2015, and for the owners of those vehicles when they go into outer London they will have to pay.

What I'm questioning (and is backed up by the TfL data) is how many of those will actually be impacted because they regularly travel to/in London.

If you were likely to travel within the North/South Circulars you'll already likely to have an exempt vehicle.

If you are likely to travel to other urban areas (Portsmouth, Birmingham, etc.) with ULEZ's you're likely have an exempt vehicle (even if you then own a non exempt vehicle too).

Unless you go more than 10 times a year, the extra cost is likely to have a limited impact on your desire to change your car (it also depends on how much the VED for the vehicle is - a £35 VED for diesel which had to pay £12.50 to go into London may still be better than a £130 or more VED for a diesel which doesn't have to pay to go into London)

Unless you brought your car within the last 18 months, the extra cost for changing your car is unlikely to be significant if you were to do so a few years earlier than you otherwise would.

There's still plenty of people unlikely to encounter a ULEZ enough to worry about the bottom falling out of the used Diesel market (although there was already a reduction in the desirability of diesel cars for a number of factors).

Certainly it's going to impact people, and for some of them it'll be a significant issue. It certainly won't be 30% of all people (for starters I'd be surprised if 30% of the population travel within London over the course of a year). It's also unlikely to be 30% of traffic within the ULEZ - as those within, and close to, the existing zone are likely to already have exempt vehicles.

I admit that it may well be more than the 10% which the TfL data suggests - although even if it is, there's a fair chance that would be fairly short lived as the older cars get replaced.

Based on the poll I started on another thread, (and I note it is a very small sample size and that it's on a forum which is for people interested in public transport, so isn't the most reliable of data) currently 13% of RailUK Forums user's would have to pay if they traveled to a ULEZ.

Link to thread with poll:

ULEZ - Plans (and would you have to pay?)

If you are unsure use the TfL checker: https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/check-your-vehicle/ As all ULEZ's use the same criteria

www.railforums.co.uk

Which suggests that it's likely to be in the 8-18% range (assuming +/- 5 percentage points either side of the current value).

 

[tomuk]

Being pedantic it was 11 diesels from 1950, not 10. However, the point stands. Also as of 2022 there's 9.329 million diesel cars of which 4.295 million were registered between 2010 and 2015, source:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1162897/veh1111.ods

(Link to spreadsheet)

I'm not denying that there's a lot of diesels from 2010 to 2015, and for the owners of those vehicles when they go into outer London they will have to pay.

Yes figures I have already told you from the same source.

What I'm questioning (and is backed up by the TfL data) is how many of those will actually be impacted because they regularly travel to/in London.

Which TfL data? The data collected from a small number of cameras out in the extended ULEZ area

If you were likely to travel within the North/South Circulars you'll already likely to have an exempt vehicle.

Luckily the North and South Circular provide a route for non compliant vehicles currently.
The Tfl Data for non compliant cars was 89% just before launch and has improved by 6.8% as at Oct 2002. Also over the same period traffic has fallen 5%. Have the non compliant vehicles just moved to the North Circular?

If you are likely to travel to other urban areas (Portsmouth, Birmingham, etc.) with ULEZ's you're likely have an exempt vehicle (even if you then own a non exempt vehicle too).

The Birmingham and Porstmouth ULEZ cover a much smaller area and are not comparable to London

Unless you go more than 10 times a year, the extra cost is likely to have a limited impact on your desire to change your car (it also depends on how much the VED for the vehicle is - a £35 VED for diesel which had to pay £12.50 to go into London may still be better than a £130 or more VED for a diesel which doesn't have to pay to go into London)

Unless you brought your car within the last 18 months, the extra cost for changing your car is unlikely to be significant if you were to do so a few years earlier than you otherwise would.

There's still plenty of people unlikely to encounter a ULEZ enough to worry about the bottom falling out of the used Diesel market (although there was already a reduction in the desirability of diesel cars for a number of factors).

Certainly it's going to impact people, and for some of them it'll be a significant issue. It certainly won't be 30% of all people (for starters I'd be surprised if 30% of the population travel within London over the course of a year). It's also unlikely to be 30% of traffic within the ULEZ - as those within, and close to, the existing zone are likely to already have exempt vehicles.

I admit that it may well be more than the 10% which the TfL data suggests - although even if it is, there's a fair chance that would be fairly short lived as the older cars get replaced.


Based on the poll I started on another thread, (and I note it is a very small sample size and that it's on a forum which is for people interested in public transport, so isn't the most reliable of data) currently 13% of RailUK Forums user's would have to pay if they traveled to a ULEZ.

Link to thread with poll:

ULEZ - Plans (and would you have to pay?)

If you are unsure use the TfL checker: https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/check-your-vehicle/ As all ULEZ's use the same criteria

www.railforums.co.uk

Which suggests that it's likely to be in the 8-18% range (assuming +/- 5 percentage points either side of the current value).

Good to see you note that running a poll in a forum like this is hardly representative.

 

[The Ham]

Yes figures I have already told you from the same source.

You did, although I was questioning how you got these figures:

Of the 7.6 million diesels registered 5.3 million were first registered between 2010 and 2015

Whilst when I looked (cells M92:R92) for the first year of registration being 2010 to 2015 and (DZ92) for the total diesel cars I get a noticeable difference set of numbers:

as of 2022 there's 9.329 million diesel cars of which 4.295 million were registered between 2010 and 2015,

 

[tomuk]

You did, although I was questioning how you got these figures:



Whilst when I looked (cells M92:R92) for the first year of registration being 2010 to 2015 and (DZ92) for the total diesel cars I get a noticeable difference set of numbers:

I took the figure for the whole of the UK from the regional breakdown veh9901.ods rather than just England.

 

[The Ham]

I took the figure for the whole of the UK from the regional breakdown veh9901.ods rather than just England.

However the total (cell DZ2001) is 11,180,520, which is significantly more than that 7.6 million cited.

However given about 19% of all diesel cars first registered 2010-15 are from outside England whilst 17% of all diesel cars are from outside England it implies that if Cardiff/Edinburgh were bringing ULEZ's it would be more of an issue than an English city.

Of course the argument could be that ULEZ compliant vehicles are being sold to areas well away from them, and so doing what was expected - that being air quality improvements within and near to them.

 

[Energy]

What gets my back up the most is that not being a London resident I have no say in this, hence why I regard the London Mayor as illegitimate.

You don't live there so you won't be affected by the bad air quality from diesels.

 

[Cowley]

Rather than having three separate threads discussing this we’re going to wrap this one up and move any further debate into this one:

ULEZ - Plans (and would you have to pay?)

If you are unsure use the TfL checker: https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/check-your-vehicle/ As all ULEZ's use the same criteria

www.railforums.co.uk

Thanks everyone.