UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[jon0844]

Adding up your clues, purchase price indicates greater than 50% depreciation with 5000 miles from new, and the driving range when battery is severely degraded, is your ZEV a Dacia Spring?

If the average mileage is 5,000-6,000 per year, then a battery that is likely to do 200,000-250,000 miles without a significant degradation really isn't going to concern anyone as the car will almost certainly have fallen apart before it reaches that time. It could take 40 years on a small car to reach that mileage!!

Only people doing loads of miles (e.g. taxi drivers) have any need to worry about the condition of the battery as they're the only people likely to get anywhere close to the point where the range has dropped enough to perhaps impact their ability to work.

 

[The Ham]

If the average mileage is 5,000-6,000 per year, then a battery that is likely to do 200,000-250,000 miles without a significant degradation really isn't going to concern anyone as the car will almost certainly have fallen apart before it reaches that time. It could take 40 years on a small car to reach that mileage!!

Only people doing loads of miles (e.g. taxi drivers) have any need to worry about the condition of the battery as they're the only people likely to get anywhere close to the point where the range has dropped enough to perhaps impact their ability to work.

Indeed, my (which somr may see as very pessimistic) view was only to establish the risk of if something significant happened was the decision likely to be costly.

That "pessimistic" view was only there to see what happened if the battery failed 1 day after the warranty expired in terms of value of owning an EV vs an ICE car. The fact that the liklihood of this is so close to zero it makes no difference means that not only is the cost of the risk is effectively zero (in that fuel, maintenance and depreciation of an ICE car is at best the same cost, but likely higher) but also the liklihood of it happening is very low.

It also hasn't factored in for any increases or spikes in fuel costs (either way, as that could impact electricity prices, although to a far smaller value).

At current prices the petrol would have cost us about £20 a month more.

The only thing I would say with an overnight rate of 6p then if we were to see a 20% increase in electricity prices (+£0.012) is smaller than a 1% rise in fuel prices from £1.50 (+£0.015), and so changes in electricity prices are likely to have a far more limited impact on my outgoings.

 

[jon0844]

I've fixed my electric rate for 12 months at 8p per kWh off peak, which is up 1p from what I paid in March (but for two weeks in April had gone down to 5.2p, and without Trump attacking Iran would have likely stayed there).

The peak rate is now 33p for me, but I don't use peak rate electricity thankfully. Meanwhile Tesla is offering fast charging off peak for as little as 27p - so we're getting to the point where, compared to a standard tariff, the public charger might be equal or even less.

 

[Mawkie]

Meanwhile Tesla is offering fast charging off peak for as little as 27p

Or less.

21p off peak at South Mimms.


22p off peak at Harlington for Teslas


31p off peak for non-Teslas.

 

[jon0844]

Or less.
View attachment 203584
21p off peak at South Mimms.

View attachment 203585
22p off peak at Harlington for Teslas

View attachment 203586
31p off peak for non-Teslas.

Even better! Another barrier broken to getting an EV.

 

[brad465]

If solar power capacity continues to increase apace, I can see there being a good off-peak charging price in the middle of the day as well, especially at weekends.

 

[jon0844]

If solar power capacity continues to increase apace, I can see there being a good off-peak charging price in the middle of the day as well, especially at weekends.

Octopus charges a lot during the day now, even between 1600 and 1900. No need to 'bump charge' and pay the peak rate. Just plug in, set your required time as 0500 or whatever - but then it creates slots at 1200 (or whatever) instead of 2330 onwards.

 

[E27007]

Indeed, I was being fairly conservative in what I was allowing for (for example not even allowing due scrap value).

Even at 50% it would be good enough for an up to 20 mile round trip each day and still only need charging every other day.

As a long-term hybrid owner, 22 years, and having performed technical tests on hybrid packs, if a battery has a reduction in capacity to the level of 50%, I suspect capacity would be one of several issues, issues such irrecoverable cell imbalance and erratic operation, another thought is a software setting, a threshold, coded into the battery management system, when maximum capacity is below the set threshold, the vehicle may enter a permanent limp mode, " consult your friendly dealer service department asap".

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 May 2026 ==

If solar power capacity continues to increase apace, I can see there being a good off-peak charging price in the middle of the day as well, especially at weekends.

Here ia two link to Gridwatch, the "electricity power meter" of GB.
Gridwatch breaks down electricity by source, time of day and historical data.
Viewing the yesterday graph (07/May), estimated solar generation (estimated by Sheffield University) from 0600 - 1800 hours with a peak of circa 20% of overall power generation at 1200 hours, solar utilised to reduce CGT power generation



Gridwatch graphs and meters of Gb power generation: Gridwatch Panel meters

 

[The Ham]

As a long-term hybrid owner, 22 years, and having performed technical tests on hybrid packs, if a battery has a reduction in capacity to the level of 50%, I suspect capacity would be one of several issues, issues such irrecoverable cell imbalance and erratic operation, another thought is a software setting, a threshold, coded into the battery management system, when maximum capacity is below the set threshold, the vehicle may enter a permanent limp mode, " consult your friendly dealer service department asap".

The point I was messaging was even at 50% it's still going to have some value (, for example for someone who uses it for the school run, as it could easily do up to 1,000m 4 times a day and only need charging once a month!

Of course that's possibly an unrealistic school run, it may well only be half that in such case it'll only need charging 6 times a year.

Although, to be at 50% the day after the battery warranty (minimum of 70%) expired would mean that something quite catastrophic happens.

The lowest priced 2017 EV on Autotrader is still £2,500 (and that's with a leased battery, so with ongoing fuel costs but with a protected battery health), go back to 2016 and the lowest EV is £2,250 and is a Leaf.

Both of those are older than 8 years old, the newer of the 2 was registered in the January.

Even if ours (in 2026 prices) is worth £1,000 after we've had it 8 years that's still more than I'd allowed for (£0) when comparing the cost of ownership.

 

[jon0844]

It's like no ICE car ever suffered from depreciation, yet right now (and it looks like Trump is starting on his next 60 day war) it seems many people are struggling to sell a petrol or diesel car irrespective of its perceived value.

I can't cite hard evidence of this beyond what is being discussed on car forums, Reddit etc, but am sure there will be data released at some point - perhaps by the likes of Auto Trader or something.

 

[The Ham]

It's like no ICE car ever suffered from depreciation, yet right now (and it looks like Trump is starting on his next 60 day war) it seems many people are struggling to sell a petrol or diesel car irrespective of its perceived value.

I can't cite hard evidence of this beyond what is being discussed on car forums, Reddit etc, but am sure there will be data released at some point - perhaps by the likes of Auto Trader or something.

Whist that might not be directly linked to EV's being more attractive, it's likely to be linked to higher fuel costs and people looking to defer large purchases until they know what's happening (either with costs, their job, other factors).

 

[Snow1964]

SMMT has now published April new car sales data
First month since Iran war pushed up fuel prices

Battery EV 39,084 26.2%
Hybrid EV 19,711 13.2%
Plug In hybrid 20,597 13.8%
Petrol 63,541 42.6%
Diesel 6314 4.2%

Think it might be first month that petrol + diesel (not hybrid) has fallen below half

 

[The Ham]

First month since Iran war pushed up fuel prices

Although I would expect that any EV boost would likely be those who were already close to picking and moving a little earlier, those switching from a ICE being a contender to going full EV are likely to be over the next few months.

Especially those who otherwise weren't really thinking about changing cars straight away, but maybe a something soon, where fuel prices might encourage them to move some sooner.

 

[jon0844]

Although I would expect that any EV boost would likely be those who were already close to picking and moving a little earlier, those switching from a ICE being a contender to going full EV are likely to be over the next few months.

Especially those who otherwise weren't really thinking about changing cars straight away, but maybe a something soon, where fuel prices might encourage them to move some sooner.

I'm sure a lot of people have cars on finance like a PCP or lease and can't just change immediately, but the situation right now may make a lot more people opt for an EV next time.

Even if fuel prices start to fall, it is a reminder of what might happen again at any time. Israel is back on its land grab mission so tensions are going to remain high for years and even if Trump goes, the successor will likely still assist as best as it can.

Plus now Shell has posted higher profits alongside BP, so does anyone in the industry want the conflict to end? It's better to sell less oil for way more money than get paid less to have to extract more.

 

[E27007]

Whist that might not be directly linked to EV's being more attractive, it's likely to be linked to higher fuel costs and people looking to defer large purchases until they know what's happening (either with costs, their job, other factors).

Consumer confidence is not high, in the current economic scene, taking on fresh high-debt is not a smart move, if your current ICE vehicle is fit for purpose, pay the extra £5 a week and carry on driving! A change of circumstances, a default on a PCP during the early term ( and even the middle term ), the consequences are serious, probably more so with a ZEV due to their high depreciation and weak demand on the used market

 

[Bletchleyite]

Consumer confidence is not high, in the current economic scene, taking on fresh high-debt is not a smart move, if your current ICE vehicle is fit for purpose, pay the extra £5 a week and carry on driving! A change of circumstances, a default on a PCP during the early term ( and even the middle term ), the consequences are serious, probably more so with a ZEV due to their high depreciation and weak demand on the used market

Most new cars are on PCP, and most people don't have cash there for the balloon payment, so in effect they get new each time the term ends.

 

[The Ham]

Consumer confidence is not high, in the current economic scene, taking on fresh high-debt is not a smart move, if your current ICE vehicle is fit for purpose, pay the extra £5 a week and carry on driving! A change of circumstances, a default on a PCP during the early term ( and even the middle term ), the consequences are serious, probably more so with a ZEV due to their high depreciation and weak demand on the used market

It depends on the status of the current car, if there's a need to replace (balloon payment, old car which needs replacing and/or an expensive repair, etc) and you've got some savings it might be better to pay £240 a month (with £100 of that being savings to your fuel costs) rather than paying £6,000 for an upgraded car. As even if you're out of work for 3 months that's £720 to find and (say) £6,000 of savings you have access to rather than £2,000 of savings.

 

[E27007]

It depends on the status of the current car, if there's a need to replace (balloon payment, old car which needs replacing and/or an expensive repair, etc) and you've got some savings it might be better to pay £240 a month (with £100 of that being savings to your fuel costs) rather than paying £6,000 for an upgraded car. As even if you're out of work for 3 months that's £720 to find and (say) £6,000 of savings you have access to rather than £2,000 of savings.

Something like 3 of 4 new cars bought by private buyers are PCP schemes.
Early termination of a PCP is a very expensive transaction, you may terminate after paying 50% of the purchase, ie a £40,000 vehicle you must have paid for half, ie £20,000, if in the early stages, you have only paid the opening deposit and a dozen or so instalments, in total, say £13,000 then to settle you may pay a top-up of £7000 to meet the 50% criteria.
Bear in mind ,a new Zev depreciates to half in 18 months, and a new Ice to half in 36 months, until the political and economic situations improve, a decision based on projected savings to justify fresh debt and change from an Ice to a ZEV is far from.risk-free

 

[Mawkie]

Bear in mind ,a new Zev depreciates to half in 18 months, and a new Ice to half in 36 months, until the political and economic situations improve, a decision based on projected savings to justify fresh debt and change from an Ice to a ZEV is far from.risk-free

I had a quick search for comparative depreciation rates and this doesn't seem to be the case any more.

Taken from Autohit.co.uk
(Table shows depreciation rates for differing vehicle types, with EVs showing -56% depreciation after 5 years, and ICEs showing -55%.)

They go on to say:

The early gap between EVs and combustion vehicles has now almost disappeared.

Depreciation equalisation is expected fully by 2027, once battery replacement costs stabilise.

 

[jon0844]

Makes sense. A big reason is that recent EVs have been cheaper to build (and therefore cheaper to sell) from new, with the plummeting cost of batteries meaning older EVs lose value from that alone. Nobody is going to pay as much for a second hand EV that was once £50k new when the new price today is now almost half.

We're probably levelling out with cheap EVs being around £10-11k and B-segment cars nearer £15-20k.

To be fair, this does apply because kr the grants which may end - but car makers that didn't qualify for the full grant cut prices themselves so there are margins to play with.

Meanwhile someone buying a diesel today (all 4% of them) must be mindful of how easy it will be to sell it in five or ten years time. Even petrol seems to be a risk, where the value could drop like a stone once nobody wants one full stop.

 

[E27007]

I had a quick search for comparative depreciation rates and this doesn't seem to be the case any more.
View attachment 203769
Taken from Autohit.co.uk
(Table shows depreciation rates for differing vehicle types, with EVs showing -56% depreciation after 5 years, and ICEs showing -55%.)

They go on to say:

We do not know have the methodology and the datasets by Autohit, we do know ZEV supply exceeds demand by a considerable margin and the heavy discounting of pre-registered delivery miles ZEVs found on Auto trader.
My methodoogy and dataset for the 50% in 18 months depreciation of ZEV vs ICE being an old friend, trusted, CEO and owner of a multi-franchise car retail business.

 

[Mawkie]

We do not know have the methodology and the datasets by Autohit, we do know ZEV supply exceeds demand by a considerable margin and the heavy discounting of pre-registered delivery miles ZEVs found on Auto trader.
My methodoogy and dataset for the 50% in 18 months depreciation of ZEV vs ICE being an old friend, trusted, CEO and owner of a multi-franchise car retail business.

Yeah, I haven't looked into too closely, and it's not a hill I'm going to die on, but that's a lot of words for, "It's true coz my friend told me".

 

[bspahh]

Fleet News has a car running costs calculator where you can select a car make and model and get predicted running costs for various ages and mileages of a new car. It gives the running costs and depreciation in pence per mile, but you can get the predicted depreciation by multiplying those values by the number of miles.

Car list prices are made up by the manufacturer and don't mean much apart from giving a number to the percentage depreciation, and for setting some tax rates.

The numbers which matter are the prices that you can buy a car for, and the price that you can sell one for. The asking price on AutoTrader is an easy way to track asking prices.

You can see the selling prices for cars at the car auction in Shoreham from Jonathan Porterfield's Youtube channel

For a KIA EV3 GT Line S, the list price is £43k. I paid £34,500 for a 4500 mile car last August. The Fleet News predicted values for 10k miles a year after 1, 2 and 3 years are £28,420, £24,370 and £20,520. On AutoTrader the cheapest asking price dipped to about £30,500 before the Iran conflict. Its now £31,230.

 

[E27007]

Fleet News has a car running costs calculator where you can select a car make and model and get predicted running costs for various ages and mileages of a new car. It gives the running costs and depreciation in pence per mile, but you can get the predicted depreciation by multiplying those values by the number of miles.

Car list prices are made up by the manufacturer and don't mean much apart from giving a number to the percentage depreciation, and for setting some tax rates.

The numbers which matter are the prices that you can buy a car for, and the price that you can sell one for. The asking price on AutoTrader is an easy way to track asking prices.

You can see the selling prices for cars at the car auction in Shoreham from Jonathan Porterfield's Youtube channel

For a KIA EV3 GT Line S, the list price is £43k. I paid £34,500 for a 4500 mile car last August. The Fleet News predicted values for 10k miles a year after 1, 2 and 3 years are £28,420, £24,370 and £20,520. On AutoTrader the cheapest asking price dipped to about £30,500 before the Iran conflict. Its now £31,230.

Interesting predictions, after the opening hit of depreciation new to year 1, there follows years two and three depreciation being £4000 for 10,000 miles, , 2.5 miles per £, or 40p/ mile

 

[Snow1964]

I had a quick search for comparative depreciation rates and this doesn't seem to be the case any more.
View attachment 203769
Taken from Autohit.co.uk
(Table shows depreciation rates for differing vehicle types, with EVs showing -56% depreciation after 5 years, and ICEs showing -55%.)

Is this off list price, or price after discounts for electric car grant, manufacturer deposit contributions, PCP offer discounts and dealer discounts.

In some cases getting good part of 20% off list price, which makes first year depreciation close to zero.

What is also interesting is how flat the year 2+3 value change vs year 4+5

From the depreciation table
Petrol year 1 is 20%, Years 2+3 average 9%, Years 4+5 avg 8.5% per year
Diesel year 1 is 22%, Years 2+3 avg 10%, Years 4+5 avg 8% per year
Hybrid year 1 is 18%, Years 2+3 avg 9%, Years 4+5 avg 8% per year
Electric year 1 is 21%, Years 2+3 avg 9.5%, Years 4+5 avg 8% per year

So appears if can get good discount, then doesn't really matter if buy a car in any of first 5 years as will typically be seeing depreciation of 8-10% a year at fairly even rate. Presumably how it then trends down to scrap value from year 6 depends on mileage, condition etc.

What is clear though is EVs not really depreciating faster than petrol or hybrid, and if anything getting a diesel is worst option.

 

[E27007]

Is this off list price, or price after discounts for electric car grant, manufacturer deposit contributions, PCP offer discounts and dealer discounts.

In some cases getting good part of 20% off list price, which makes first year depreciation close to zero.

What is also interesting is how flat the year 2+3 value change vs year 4+5

From the depreciation table
Petrol year 1 is 20%, Years 2+3 average 9%, Years 4+5 avg 8.5% per year
Diesel year 1 is 22%, Years 2+3 avg 10%, Years 4+5 avg 8% per year
Hybrid year 1 is 18%, Years 2+3 avg 9%, Years 4+5 avg 8% per year
Electric year 1 is 21%, Years 2+3 avg 9.5%, Years 4+5 avg 8% per year

So appears if can get good discount, then doesn't really matter if buy a car in any of first 5 years as will typically be seeing depreciation of 8-10% a year at fairly even rate. Presumably how it then trends down to scrap value from year 6 depends on mileage, condition etc.

What is clear though is EVs not really depreciating faster than petrol or hybrid, and if anything getting a diesel is worst option.

Regret to write, I am not understanding your hypothesis of zero first-year depreciation if discounts are applied, depreciation is not truly known until disposal, even then we may have historic depreciation, where we compare purchase price to disposal price , or actuarial depreciation, the price of the replacement has risen or lowered , " the cost to exchange" new for old, where the prices or new has changed, in commerce, the numbers to worry over are those which are not known or measurable, depreciation is simultaneously an unknown / unmeasurable and a major cost of ownership of a vehicle.

 

[The Ham]

Is this off list price, or price after discounts for electric car grant, manufacturer deposit contributions, PCP offer discounts and dealer discounts.

In some cases getting good part of 20% off list price, which makes first year depreciation close to zero.

What is also interesting is how flat the year 2+3 value change vs year 4+5

From the depreciation table
Petrol year 1 is 20%, Years 2+3 average 9%, Years 4+5 avg 8.5% per year
Diesel year 1 is 22%, Years 2+3 avg 10%, Years 4+5 avg 8% per year
Hybrid year 1 is 18%, Years 2+3 avg 9%, Years 4+5 avg 8% per year
Electric year 1 is 21%, Years 2+3 avg 9.5%, Years 4+5 avg 8% per year

So appears if can get good discount, then doesn't really matter if buy a car in any of first 5 years as will typically be seeing depreciation of 8-10% a year at fairly even rate. Presumably how it then trends down to scrap value from year 6 depends on mileage, condition etc.

What is clear though is EVs not really depreciating faster than petrol or hybrid, and if anything getting a diesel is worst option.

So if I but a 4 year old petrol car (say at £11,000) 4 years of 8% depression a year would mean that I lost on average £65 a month over that 4 year period (8 year old car value £7,880, which is maybe £100 more than a garage would sell it for; looking at a Ford Focus on Autotrader and using the highest value one; so not trying to match trim level - so probably £7,300 for private sale is fairly optimistic, but we'll go with it to be robust).

That's based on 40,000 to 50,000 miles on the 4 year old car and us adding 48,000 miles (same as our lease).

Add in my fuel savings of £130 a month, that's still less than my monthly lease costs of £200.

I also have £6,000 sat in savings (or no £6,000 loan or any mix there of) which also comes into play. I also have no breakdown cover to pay for, no MOT for 3 years, a lower frequency of services with each requiring less work and a car covered by warranty (something which would often be a cost option for a car over 4 years old, or at least for some of my ownership period).

However, even ignoring all those price factors, I'm still better off to the tune of £17 a month (circa £800) and whilst I would still have more car value than the £6,000 in savings (£1,300), the £17 a month reduces this down to £500. Even just a cam belt change is going to be more than that (and they tend to be a year 5+ thing).

 

[E27007]

So if I but a 4 year old petrol car (say at £11,000) 4 years of 8% depression a year would mean that I lost on average £65 a month over that 4 year period (8 year old car value £7,880, which is maybe £100 more than a garage would sell it for; looking at a Ford Focus on Autotrader and using the highest value one; so not trying to match trim level - so probably £7,300 for private sale is fairly optimistic, but we'll go with it to be robust).

That's based on 40,000 to 50,000 miles on the 4 year old car and us adding 48,000 miles (same as our lease).

Add in my fuel savings of £130 a month, that's still less than my monthly lease costs of £200.

I also have £6,000 sat in savings (or no £6,000 loan or any mix there of) which also comes into play. I also have no breakdown cover to pay for, no MOT for 3 years, a lower frequency of services with each requiring less work and a car covered by warranty (something which would often be a cost option for a car over 4 years old, or at least for some of my ownership period).

However, even ignoring all those price factors, I'm still better off to the tune of £17 a month (circa £800) and whilst I would still have more car value than the £6,000 in savings (£1,300), the £17 a month reduces this down to £500. Even just a cam belt change is going to be more than that (and they tend to be a year 5+ thing).

Does the lease figure of £200 / month include the initial deposit payment, the initial deposit amortised over the term of the lease (48 months) and is the lease a PCP? If that is the case a convincing argument!

 

[The Ham]

Does the lease figure of £200 / month include the initial deposit payment, the initial deposit amortised over the term of the lease (48 months) and is the lease a PCP? If that is the case a convincing argument!

I deducted the £5,000 deposit from the £11,000 cost of the second hand car we could have purchased instead (hence the £6,000 in savings or reduced loan value).

 

[Snow1964]

Does the lease figure of £200 / month include the initial deposit payment, the initial deposit amortised over the term of the lease (48 months) and is the lease a PCP? If that is the case a convincing argument!

You will not be able to lease a car for £200/month, no other cost, no deposit.

Maybe £200 per month, excluding deposit, and any return fee /repairs

But anyone who just looks at monthlies, without adding up all the costs and dividing it by number of months is just gullible and not financially savvy. Actually I wish regulator banned adverts that only give intermediate monthlies as a headline, because it causes dumb people to get into debt, but that isn't for this thread.

Even today can find PCP adverts where sounds like a deal, but if look at total cost (including interest) it's thousands more than cash price, but smooth talking salesmen still make out you have a good deal (ie good for them)

But back to EVs, and the real difference for a person who can use overnight electricity is the fuel saving, it's now around one seventeenth of petrol and diesel. Someone doing even 8000 miles a year is saving over £100 per month in fuel. If doing 10,000 miles a year then nearer £130 per month fuel saving.

Even if financing was £80 a month extra for an EV, sort of becoming a no brainer