UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[GusB]

This is very true unfortunately BUT it would be really nice if we could make EV batteries somewhere in Europe though.

EV batteries are made in Europe. For example, CATL has manufacturing facilities in Germany (Erfurt) and Hungary (Debrecen), according to its website:

Company Profile

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL) is a global leader in new energy innovative technologies, committed to providing premier solutions and services for new energy applications worldwide.

www.catl.com

 

[E27007]

This is very true unfortunately BUT it would be really nice if we could make EV batteries somewhere in Europe though.

Northolt had major long-term ambitions and attracted funding by big names, Blackrock, Goldman Sachs and VW, and investment grants from public funds, their first production facility to manufacture 100,000 batteries per week and further ambitions to have another five production facilities in Europe.
Details are sparse, but a problem for Northvolt being the yield rate of manufacture of batteries fit for sale was below expectations by a significant margin. The transition to ZEV relies upon the establishment of mature reliable processes for large scale manufacture of the batteries, it would seem battery manufacture is not as straightforward as the politicians thought.
One may speculate about the Chinese battery plants facing similar yield issues too, and the Chinese plants, able to weather the storm due to state backed financial subsidies

 

[Noddy]

With a much more generous welfare state, funded via the sale of crude oil

Poverty in Norway still exists. It is undoubtedly lower, but it is still there. The UN reports child poverty at about 10% in Norway (same as Denmark and Finland which don’t have huge oil wealth) compared to 20% in the UK so using child poverty as a measure it is about half the UK rate. The difference is it is fundamentally a better run country than the UK, for example rather than trying to deny and delay the inevitable or give way to populist demands or fossil fuel lobby, it is actively implementing policies to support folk who live flats/rented accommodation such as ‘a right to charge’.

 

[AM9]

This may or may not happen:

Gravity welcomes Agratas Gigafactory as first site occupier

Gravity is proud to share the formal confirmation that the 40GWh Agratas Gigafactory will be the first and primary site occupier.

thisisgravity.co.uk

A drop in the ocean. The UK is too far behind the curve to make any significant contribution to the mainstream demand for EV batteries. Just get used to foreign batteries (Chinese or US), just like we have with cars, (EU or far east). Refurb is the only viable market left for UK based vehicles

 

[johncrossley]

When will electric cars get cheaper to insure? According to

Cheapest electric cars to insure 2024 - cinch

Looking for the cheapest electric cars to insure? Look no further than cinch. We have some of the best electric vehicles that are cheap to insure for sale or on finance.

www.cinch.co.uk

Here's a list of the cheapest electric cars to insure, based on their insurance group.

Smart EQ ForFour (insurance group 9)​

Volkswagen e-Up (insurance group 10)​

SEAT Mii Electric (insurance group 12)​

there is nothing below insurance group 9. But those cars are discontinued, so there is actually nothing below insurance group 14.

 

[E27007]

The car manufacturing industry is arguing that the ZEV mandate needs to be overhauled because demand for electric cars is lower than was expected

Lacklustre sales of ZEV's, are the issue, the industry at a "crisis point" .Car makers withholding sales of IC vehicles due to risk of penalties for not meeting the 2024 ZEV target of 22% of sales volume, current sales volume of ZEV is around 18% with only weeks to meet the mandate of 22%.

• Minister Louise Haigh to meet with Nissan today [18th November] and further car makers on Wednesday
• ZEV volumes, incentives and subsidies likely to be discussed

Car manufacturers to meet with UK Govt to discuss flexibility in targets for the UK ZEV mandate:
Cars sales have stagnated in Q4 due to ZEV targets

Ford to cut 800 jobs in UK due to lower than expected demand for ZEV's:

Huge car manufacturer to cut 800 jobs in UK after stall in demand for EVs

FORD has announced that it will axe hundreds of jobs from its UK sites as part of massive cuts to its European output. Bosses blamed the “lower than expected demand” for electric cars a…

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[trebor79]

Fun y how Tesla, Polestar and a host of Chinese companies seem to manage just fone with 100% of their sales being BEV.
I really hope governments don't allow the legacy manufacturers to kick the can down the road, only to be in the exact same position again.
It's time the internal combustion engine was consigned to history.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Fun y how Tesla, Polestar and a host of Chinese companies seem to manage just fone with 100% of their sales being BEV.
I really hope governments don't allow the legacy manufacturers to kick the can down the road, only to be in the exact same position again.
It's time the internal combustion engine was consigned to history.

If Tesla, Polestar and the newer Chinese companies never made anything other than BEVs then it would make sense that their sales of those would be at 100% of their production. Or did these manufacturers infact make ICE vehicles as well ?.

 

[Noddy]

Lacklustre sales of ZEV's, are the issue, the industry at a "crisis point" .Car makers withholding sales of IC vehicles due to risk of penalties for not meeting the 2024 ZEV target of 22% of sales volume, current sales volume of ZEV is around 18% with only weeks to meet the mandate of 22%.

• Minister Louise Haigh to meet with Nissan today [18th November] and further car makers on Wednesday
• ZEV volumes, incentives and subsidies likely to be discussed

Car manufacturers to meet with UK Govt to discuss flexibility in targets for the UK ZEV mandate:
Cars sales have stagnated in Q4 due to ZEV targets

Ford to cut 800 jobs in UK due to lower than expected demand for ZEV's:

Huge car manufacturer to cut 800 jobs in UK after stall in demand for EVs

FORD has announced that it will axe hundreds of jobs from its UK sites as part of massive cuts to its European output. Bosses blamed the “lower than expected demand” for electric cars a…

www.thesun.co.uk

Ford moaning about lower than expected demand? Until 2024 they only made one EV model and it wasn’t even branded as a Ford! Now they have three models and they are all big, expensive, SUVs. Two of which are based on VWs. Which are cheaper. And yet Ford are surprised by lower than expected demand…

 

[trebor79]

If Tesla, Polestar and the newer Chinese companies never made anything other than BEVs then it would make sense that their sales of those would be at 100% of their production. Or did these manufacturers infact make ICE vehicles as well ?.

That's completely irrelevant. If anything it should have been easier for the incumbents to produce decent EVs. They didn't want to invest despite knowing this was coming, and now they want to be allowed to sell vehicles that pollute the atmosphere because they chose not to invest, or made poor products.
That's not acceptable.

 

[RuddA]

Ford moaning about lower than expected demand? Until 2024 they only made one EV model and it wasn’t even branded as a Ford! Now they have three models and they are all big, expensive, SUVs. Two of which are based on VWs. Which are cheaper. And yet Ford are surprised by lower than expected demand…

Does this percentage just include the number of electric cars sold, or does it also include vans like the e-Transit?

 

[jon0844]

Ford moaning about lower than expected demand? Until 2024 they only made one EV model and it wasn’t even branded as a Ford! Now they have three models and they are all big, expensive, SUVs. Two of which are based on VWs. Which are cheaper. And yet Ford are surprised by lower than expected demand…

As I've said before, Ford axed the Ka, Fiesta and Focus (okay the Ka went years before but it was still popular for some time and would be ideal today as a nippy city runaround in EV form) and are now advertising (as heard on the radio) the Explorer and Mach-E as their attempts to sell electric cars.

Then they have the pathetic Capri which is essentially a VW and doesn't look anything like the original. I don't know anyone that likes it, but obviously that's subjective. Nevertheless sales are likely to be poor.

Ford argued it couldn't mass produce a small electric car (like the Chinese can and Citroen and Renault and others are also doing here in Europe) so they've gone big. That's incredible given the origins of the company.

What it is comes down to the stupid move years ago to effectively abandon Ford Europe (including UK) and just make global cars, as the US ignored our differing wants and needs from a car.

Sure SUVs can be profitable thanks to large margins, but the economy isn't exactly great right now and fuel is expensive. Many people want a small efficient car and they're going to be buying them - just not from Ford.

Ironically, some people are still of the belief that Ford is only struggling because it has tried to move to electric and that ICE would save the day. It's the opposite.

 

[Noddy]

Does this percentage just include the number of electric cars sold, or does it also include vans like the e-Transit?

There is a mandate for commercial vehicles/van but it’s different to cars. It’s 10% for 2024. Ironically it will probably be much easier for commercial vehicles to transition as electric vans are much much cheaper to run and maintain, especially if you have a depot/base/can easily reimburse staff home charging costs, and these sorts of purchasing decisions aren’t made on emotion (and let’s be honest we’ve seen lots of that in this discussion thread) but rather lines on a spreadsheet.

 

[jon0844]

There is a mandate for commercial vehicles/van but it’s different to cars. It’s 10% for 2024. Ironically it will probably be much easier for commercial vehicles to transition as electric vans are much much cheaper to run and maintain, especially if you have a depot/base/can easily reimburse staff home charging costs, and these sorts of purchasing decisions aren’t made on emotion (and let’s be honest we’ve seen lots of that in this discussion thread) but rather lines on a spreadsheet.

There's so much less to go wrong so if I had a fleet of vans, I'd go electric as soon as possible to keep my staff on the move.

 

[jon81uk]

There is a mandate for commercial vehicles/van but it’s different to cars. It’s 10% for 2024. Ironically it will probably be much easier for commercial vehicles to transition as electric vans are much much cheaper to run and maintain, especially if you have a depot/base/can easily reimburse staff home charging costs, and these sorts of purchasing decisions aren’t made on emotion (and let’s be honest we’ve seen lots of that in this discussion thread) but rather lines on a spreadsheet.

The classic example of the milk float that was all electric 50+ years ago, depot based vans for fairly local use would be an easy target for becoming electric. Things like Supermarket deliveries, Royal Mail etc.

 

[N1]

The classic example of the milk float that was all electric 50+ years ago, depot based vans for fairly local use would be an easy target for becoming electric. Things like Supermarket deliveries, Royal Mail etc.

Tesco are targeting 2028 for 100% electric delivery fleet. Royal Mail already in progress for EVs as well. I did electrical designs for some Royal Mail depots to get EVs about 3 years ago. Commercial fleets are actually much easier to electrify than those used by general public. Always return to the same central location everyday, have a known mileage and charge overnight, allowing easier grid connections with full capacity only used at night.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Tesco are targeting 2028 for 100% electric delivery fleet. Royal Mail already in progress for EVs as well. I did electrical designs for some Royal Mail depots to get EVs about 3 years ago. Commercial fleets are actually much easier to electrify than those used by general public. Always return to the same central location everyday, have a known mileage and charge overnight, allowing easier grid connections with full capacity only used at night.

Another advantage regarding delivery fleets is the continual stop, drop and start routine. A lot of braking energy that can be put back in the battery of an EV.

 

[jon81uk]

Tesco are targeting 2028 for 100% electric delivery fleet. Royal Mail already in progress for EVs as well. I did electrical designs for some Royal Mail depots to get EVs about 3 years ago. Commercial fleets are actually much easier to electrify than those used by general public. Always return to the same central location everyday, have a known mileage and charge overnight, allowing easier grid connections with full capacity only used at night.

Also stores and warehouses (plus their car parks) should be prime space to add solar panels therefore reducing the cost of the electric.

 

[Peter Sarf]

That's completely irrelevant. If anything it should have been easier for the incumbents to produce decent EVs. They didn't want to invest despite knowing this was coming, and now they want to be allowed to sell vehicles that pollute the atmosphere because they chose not to invest, or made poor products.
That's not acceptable.

In my eyes it is very relevant.
A startup that only makes EVs is never going to fall foul of the governments mandate that at least 22% of their vehicles sold must BEVs. Even if they just sold very very few BEVs they would not fall foul of market tinkering by the government.

Of course these startups are taking the risk of being viable (selling enough) but unlike the established car manufactures they are not burdened with established customers who need "encouraging away" from ICE vehicles. The sort of customer who is prepared to make a big switch in their car ownership habits is just as likely to switch to a new manufacturer as stick with their existing manufacturer. The sort of customer that is not considering a BEV is also likely to not consider switching manufacturer. They are certainly not going to turn their back on Ford for example and buy an non-existent ICE vehicle from a firm that only makes BEVs.

Ford moaning about lower than expected demand? Until 2024 they only made one EV model and it wasn’t even branded as a Ford! Now they have three models and they are all big, expensive, SUVs. Two of which are based on VWs. Which are cheaper. And yet Ford are surprised by lower than expected demand…

This is interesting and made me think. This sparked a memory. There is very little profit in small cars and there is more of a profit margin on bigger cars - the sort of people buying large cars have costs of ownership as a lesser consideration.

I can believe that the likes of Ford are starting with the bigger cars as BEVs because the "profit" can be used to cover the R&D costs.

I would expect the BEVs to get cheaper over time and the costs becoming bearable for small vehicle manufacture and their owner/operators. This is what has happened with other "new" technology - I recall how expensive CD players were at first (circa £500) I jumped in when the price had got to down to around £100 !.

But for Ford to abandon manufacture of their portfolio of smaller cars leads me to wonder - Ford might have realised they had to cut down ICE vehicle sales and have done it by shedding their less lucrative (ie small) ranges.

A long way from the model T Ford for the masses .

 

[DC1989]

The only car makers moaning about the ZEV are the ones failing with the transition. The government should ignore the crying and threats and continue on

 

[dcbwhaley]

The classic example of the milk float that was all electric 50+ years ago,

If they were so good why did they stop using them?

 

[trebor79]

In my eyes it is very relevant.
A startup that only makes EVs is never going to fall foul of the governments mandate that at least 22% of their vehicles sold must BEVs. Even if they just sold very very few BEVs they would not fall foul of market tinkering by the government.

The point I'm making is that if start ups can mass produce EVs that people want to buy, why can't the incumbents?

Of course these startups are taking the risk of being viable (selling enough) but unlike the established car manufactures they are not burdened with established customers who need "encouraging away" from ICE vehicles.

Yes they are! Not only are people moving from ICE, but they are also buying an unknown brand!

The sort of customer who is prepared to make a big switch in their car ownership habits is just as likely to switch to a new manufacturer as stick with their existing manufacturer. The sort of customer that is not considering a BEV is also likely to not consider switching manufacturer. They are certainly not going to turn their back on Ford for example and buy an non-existent ICE vehicle from a firm that only makes BEVs.

And yet, they do buy those EVs! What were the people driving BYD, MG and Tesla EVs driving before? Fords, VWs and Vauxhall's.
There's a lot of supposition and assumption inherent in your point of view.

Ford in particular is failing because it's ditched the small car segment entirely. The 3 EVs is brought out are all massive, expensive and not very good.

I can believe that the likes of Ford are starting with the bigger cars as BEVs because the "profit" can be used to cover the R&D costs.

No it's because they have got rid of the smaller models and basically offered their US models worldwide, rather than tailoring their offering to each market.

But for Ford to abandon manufacture of their portfolio of smaller cars leads me to wonder - Ford might have realised they had to cut down ICE vehicle sales and have done it by shedding their less lucrative (ie small) ranges.

Strategic error on focusing on large cars only.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Nov 2024 ==

If they were so good why did they stop using them?

People started buying milk at supermarkets.
The milk on the step was often spur after a day, particularly in summer. Milk from the supermarket has been kept cold all the way from the dairy and doesn't go sour for days after opening.

 

[jon0844]

If they were so good why did they stop using them?

They used lead acid batteries so I think range was a big issue as well as charging times.

Modern milk floats could (and possible some are) use modern batteries, but while I get door knocked almost monthly from Milk & More, I won't consider using a milk delivery service because they aren't that cheap, and they also deliver at times that could mean my delivery sits on a doorstep all day. So, perhaps the real answer is that milk floats aren't really a thing at all these days, regardless of their means of power.

 

[jon81uk]

If they were so good why did they stop using them?

Supermarkets sell milk at a much smaller margin (or even a loss) and the delivery companies can't compete on price.
Also a change in the last 30-40 years, more people own cars with both people in the household driving to work so can stop at the supermarket on the way home.

 

[jon0844]

Ford in particular is failing because it's ditched the small car segment entirely. The 3 EVs is brought out are all massive, expensive and not very good.

This.

They can claim they can't make an affordable, small, EV but we're talking about Ford - one of the few companies that didn't need saving I believe. If others can make an affordable small car, Ford can. They simply decided to think globally and build big cars that were indeed more profitable, but were arrogant enough to think that everyone outside of the USA wants a huge SUV.

Sure, many people do buy SUVs for the status, then drive with just one occupant, and I guess it's fine to make cars for that market, but you don't stop making your small cars. I mean, they stopped even making the ICE Fiesta! Many car makers still make petrol cars with a small, pretty frugal 1-1.2 litre engine (I know, I have one) but Ford thought, nah, let's only sell big cars.

VW is also delaying making a new small EV, when it already made a small EV that it stopped making - and so did BMW with the i3. With batteries now probably less than half the price of back then, I am sure they could easily restart construction of these models and make a profit if they wanted.

Maybe they still think people only want a large car because sales weren't great before, but that was because they were £30-35k for a small car, when now you'd be selling them for £20k or less. Unsurprisingly, these cars are selling well in the second hand market and people love them - and the batteries are still 'barely run in'.

I expect the incumbent car makers will see the success of the e-C3, R5, Dacia Spring and others and realise they should get cracking on offering consumers what they want, which mostly isn't a 2 tonne tractor on wheels.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Nov 2024 ==

Supermarkets sell milk at a much smaller margin (or even a loss) and the delivery companies can't compete on price.
Also a change in the last 30-40 years, more people own cars with both people in the household driving to work so can stop at the supermarket on the way home.

Plus in the heyday of the milk float, someone likely stayed home in the day so could bring the milk in whenever it was delivered. Now everyone has to go and work, so that leads to the milk (and other items you can order) being out in the sun all day.

 

[AM9]

Supermarkets sell milk at a much smaller margin (or even a loss) and the delivery companies can't compete on price.
Also a change in the last 30-40 years, more people own cars with both people in the household driving to work so can stop at the supermarket on the way home.

Add to that the demise of glass milk bottles, much more troublesome to carry home, even in a car.

 

[jon81uk]

Add to that the demise of glass milk bottles, much more troublesome to carry home, even in a car.

glass milk bottles are sitll available, via the milk delivery service, same as 30 years ago.

 

[thejuggler]

Fun y how Tesla, Polestar and a host of Chinese companies seem to manage just fone with 100% of their sales being BEV.
I really hope governments don't allow the legacy manufacturers to kick the can down the road, only to be in the exact same position again.
It's time the internal combustion engine was consigned to history.

You need to look behind the brand names and consider the holding companies. The Chinese companies are all part of much larger companies and don't just build EVs. Polestar is part of Geely that has interest in many vehicle brands. BYD started out building ICE vehicles. MG is a brand of SAIC, a huge manufactuer of all types of vehicles.

Regardless you are correct the EU legacy manufacturers are well off the pace. Stellantis are trying, Ford, VAG, BMW, Mercedes have lost the plot.

 

[Ediswan]

They used lead acid batteries so I think range was a big issue as well as charging times.

Sometimes seen creeping back to base at well under walking speed.

Plus in the heyday of the milk float, someone likely stayed home in the day so could bring the milk in whenever it was delivered. Now everyone has to go and work, so that leads to the milk (and other items you can order) being out in the sun all day.

In their heyday, the milk was often delivered before most people got out of bed. See numerous 1960s films where seriously late night revellers hitch a ride to help get home.

 

[jon0844]

In their heyday, the milk was often delivered before most people got out of bed. See numerous 1960s films where seriously late night revellers hitch a ride to help get home.

I'd sign up to Milk & More if I could use it to get home instead of calling an expensive taxi!!