UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[Harpers Tate]

How do you expect car owners living in high rise apartments to charge their car?

How do such people refuel their ICEs? The answers to both are virtually the same; the only change is that the wise EV user does so while they are doing something else - like, say, shopping at a supermarket, or having a meal out.

 

[bspahh]

At the moment, at a site like https://www.justpark.com/ I can book to park on someones driveway for a specific time. Usually this is cheaper than a car park in the same area. Sometimes it can be more expensive, but you have a booking, rather than having to rely on finding space in a car park.

At the moment, it doesn't seem to show if charging is available. It would be useful to be able to book a parking space with charging for a specific time.

 

[miklcct]

How do such people refuel their ICEs? The answers to both are virtually the same; the only change is that the wise EV user does so while they are doing something else - like, say, shopping at a supermarket, or having a meal out.

Refuelling an ICE is a matter of minutes. Not true for an electric.

Where should I refuel if my only use of my car is to the countryside? I never have to use a car to go shopping, or having a meal out.

 

[AM9]

At the moment, at a site like https://www.justpark.com/ I can book to park on someones driveway for a specific time. Usually this is cheaper than a car park in the same area. Sometimes it can be more expensive, but you have a booking, rather than having to rely on finding space in a car park.

At the moment, it doesn't seem to show if charging is available. It would be useful to be able to book a parking space with charging for a specific time.

Unless it was access to a normal 13A outlet, it could get complicated with pricing.

 

[dcbwhaley]

How do you expect car owners living in high rise apartments to charge their car?

The same way that owners of ICE cars living in high rise apartments do. By driving to a filling station.

Very few ICE owners have a petrol pump on their drive or on the nearby kerbside but they get by,

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Nov 2024 ==

How do such people refuel their ICEs? The answers to both are virtually the same; the only change is that the wise EV user does so while they are doing something else - like, say, shopping at a supermarket, or having a meal out.

I always refuel my ICE when I go shopping at the supermarket

 

[paul1609]

In practice, the advent of private battery storage, either as part of a solar installation or as an EV which has vehicle-to-grid capability with mitigate much of the need to reinforce the maximum capacity of local supply infrastructure. The current position is that almost all normal domestic premises have a 100A capable supply that can supply 23kW of power. Diversity rules are applied that allows a significant number of consumers to draw on that power for which the DNO provides high voltage connections the the national grid. The availability of batteries within residential areas allows them to export some of their stored energy back into the local street connection which reduces the power required from the grid. Thus the grid connections do not need reinforcement to levels that simple multiplying the projected household increase imply. You may ask why should owners of battery stores export to support the supply to others? Well already, there are several domestic supply tariffs that encourage such an act by supplying energy during low demand periods, e.g. overnight, at low cost, and offering a higher 'buyback' price during the late afternoon/early evening periods. This benefits both consumers and suppliers and reduces the need for supply distribution upgrading. It is alredy mandatory for all new EV chargers to have a variable start delay that is randomly applied in order that surges are minimised. I expect that with the rapid introduction of IoT connected domestic products that energy legislation may require heavy loads e.g. water heaters, washing and dishwashing equipment etc., to be controllable such that short delays of interruptions allow the supply to stay within limits. The rest will be down to aggressive variations in energy costs at peak times, much like commercial premises are becoming accustomed to.

The diversity factors used right up to 2020 won't allow every house to have a heat pump and an EV even with huge amounts of home battery storage and solar. The majority of in street lv cabling and hv/lv transformers will need replacement which is going to cost trillions and take decades. The national grid is in a rather more fortunate position because of the decline of manufacturing industry.

 

[AM9]

The diversity factors used right up to 2020 won't allow every house to have a heat pump and an EV even with huge amounts of home battery storage and solar. The majority of in street lv cabling and hv/lv transformers will need replacement which is going to cost trillions and take decades. The national grid is in a rather more fortunate position because of the decline of manufacturing industry.

Well let's not bother and just keep burning hydrocarbons then! After all that's what Trump is constructing an administration for.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

The same way that owners of ICE cars living in high rise apartments do. By driving to a filling station.

Very few ICE owners have a petrol pump on their drive or on the nearby kerbside but they get by,

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Nov 2024 ==


I always refuel my ICE when I go shopping at the supermarket

It's this sort of duplicitous argument that really endears the EVangelists to people...
The habits of ICE car use are well established, and refuelling takes a matter of minutes. If I have to charge a large battery taking at minimum 30mins, coupled with driving to the charge point and possibly waiting for the only functional charger to become free... I've suddenly lost a big chunk of my day either being unproductive twiddling my thumbs, or I've spent the best part of £10 getting an overpriced coffee I didn't need.

It may be that we'll have to learn new habits in our bright new EV Utopia future, but daft thought-terminating cliché answers like the one bolded above, will just increase resistance to that change.

 

[Peter Sarf]

How do you expect car owners living in high rise apartments to charge their car?

That is a good question.

My expectation is that electric hire cars are parked in car parks with permanent charging. This is the way how a car club works, therefore there must be a time gap between the previous return and the next hire for electric cars, for the charge to return to a reasonable level.

The hire companies don't bother with re-fuelling ICE vehicles so I suspect that having to move vehicles around and let them charge will not be considered cost effective. They just want to clean and check the vehicle before sending them off site asap.

How do such people refuel their ICEs? The answers to both are virtually the same; the only change is that the wise EV user does so while they are doing something else - like, say, shopping at a supermarket, or having a meal out.

But I walk or use a bus to the local supermarket etc. So with an EV I will have to take the car with me.

At the moment, at a site like https://www.justpark.com/ I can book to park on someones driveway for a specific time. Usually this is cheaper than a car park in the same area. Sometimes it can be more expensive, but you have a booking, rather than having to rely on finding space in a car park.

At the moment, it doesn't seem to show if charging is available. It would be useful to be able to book a parking space with charging for a specific time.

I think that is the site my friend uses to park up near Stansted Airport. Mainly cheaper and more convenient.

I think metering for the charging would be the only hurdle to overcome. Unless they just charged for a battery full for the specified cars capacity.

The same way that owners of ICE cars living in high rise apartments do. By driving to a filling station.

Very few ICE owners have a petrol pump on their drive or on the nearby kerbside but they get by,

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Nov 2024 ==


I always refuel my ICE when I go shopping at the supermarket

I always walk to the supermarket. I do not want to have to take my car with me.

The diversity factors used right up to 2020 won't allow every house to have a heat pump and an EV even with huge amounts of home battery storage and solar. The majority of in street lv cabling and hv/lv transformers will need replacement which is going to cost trillions and take decades. The national grid is in a rather more fortunate position because of the decline of manufacturing industry.

I do see a requirement for a beefed up supply in neighbourhoods. In my partners road they replaced the streetlamps with nice bright LED street lamps. This is a problem in summer as they are taller and set back against the garden boundaries so the trees in leaf just obliterate the light !. The front of her house is nicely illuminated though which improves security. But what puzzles me is that they also abandoned the original single phase feed that ran along the kerb line in favour of cutting into the three phase supply for the houses. So the network to the houses is already seeing an increased load. I thought it would have been easier to cut into the existing single phase supply which could be isolated while the work was done rather than cutting into the LIVE supply to peoples homes. Puzzles me.

Well let's not bother and just keep burning hydrocarbons then! After all that's what Trump is constructing an administration for.

I am afraid it is looking that way. The ecology is being pushed too hard and some (er USA) are going to get left behind.

We should have been planning our lives so as to reduce the need for cars. Instead we are just fudging over the problem with less bad electric cars.

It's this sort of duplicitous argument that really endears the EVangelists to people...
The habits of ICE car use are well established, and refuelling takes a matter of minutes. If I have to charge a large battery taking at minimum 30mins, coupled with driving to the charge point and possibly waiting for the only functional charger to become free... I've suddenly lost a big chunk of my day either being unproductive twiddling my thumbs, or I've spent the best part of £10 getting an overpriced coffee I didn't need.

It may be that we'll have to learn new habits in our bright new EV Utopia future, but daft thought-terminating cliché answers like the one bolded above, will just increase resistance to that change.

Exactly. It means me driving to the supermarket that I currently ALWAYS walk to. So extra road use not less.

I don't go out for meals much but now I will have to drink and drive !.

 

[HSTEd]

The extension lead thing will need some amendment to legilation regarding obstruction of the public highway or specific provision to enable any temporary cable to reach a vehicle parked kerbside. 'People install' installing might be legislated to mean 'people to have professionally installed and certified'.

I doubt the state apparatus exists to actually enforce punishments on people snaking power cables across footpaths outside of terrace houses or swinging them out on collapsing poles over the footway.
People will do it and it will become the de-facto standard whatever the rules currently say.
As to "professionally installed and certified" - there is already a well established base of practice for the installation of such sockets, so I would not expect it to change much in the future.

How do you expect car owners living in high rise apartments to charge their car?

Likely at public charging points, paying whatever premium is the smallest they can find.
Of course, once everyone else has gone electric the actual fully burdened cost of petroleum fuels available to them will be so high that it will still be worth it whatever happens.

Also apartment blocks with dedicated parking spaces will likely have chargers installed.

 

[paul1609]

Well let's not bother and just keep burning hydrocarbons then! After all that's what Trump is constructing an administration for.

I'm just stating an engineering fact that is being conveniently ignored, I'm not putting forward anti EV or climate change denial opinions. The targets that the government keeps setting are totally impractical on delivery grounds.

 

[AM9]

I'm just stating an engineering fact that is being conveniently ignored, I'm not putting forward anti EV or climate change denial opinions. The targets that the government keeps setting are totally impractical on delivery grounds.

Nothing will be achieved is there's continual 'put that in the too difficult box' category is repeated. Targets must be challenging even if they are likely to fail in some areas.
What is being ignored is the likely costs of a 'do nothing' strategy, which would be way above any one-time infrastructure step improvement. As an aside, consider what would have happened if the establishment of the NHS was considered too difficult - or motivating and arming the nation to take take on Hitler. Climate change really is gathering pace and each year passed with minimal or no material progress ramps up the cost and difficulty of heading off the worst effects up even more.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Nov 2024 ==

I doubt the state apparatus exists to actually enforce punishments on people snaking power cables across footpaths outside of terrace houses or swinging them out on collapsing poles over the footway.
People will do it and it will become the de-facto standard whatever the rules currently say.
As to "professionally installed and certified" - there is already a well established base of practice for the installation of such sockets, so I would not expect it to change much in the future.

Until there are accidents with injuries or worse, those with no consideration fopr others will probably do as tou say, but once the gloves are off the claims lawyers, things will need to change. The right to obstruct the public highway with a pedestrian hazard is not trumped by somebody's effort to save a bit on their car's energy cost.
The law on external mains sockets is quite strict and falls under 'Part P' in terms of notifications, which implies inspection can be required (it still is in Wales where a Minor Work Certificate is mandated). The potential for abuse of an external socket is considerable, - moreso one mounted on the walls to which non-residents have access. The 2013 relaxations by the then government to certain 'special' installations were severely criticised, and it is possible that this potential lapse of safety will require a reversion to adequately address the hazards.

 

[MotCO]

Of course, once everyone else has gone electric the actual fully burdened cost of petroleum fuels available to them will be so high that it will still be worth it whatever happens.

Let's look at a few facts. There are currently 34 million cars on the roads in the UK. https://www.zap-map.com/ev-stats/ev-market. Of this, 1.3m are EVs. Each year there are approx 2m new cars purchased. https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-uk-by-month-2023

At this rate, even if all new cars purchased were EVs, it will take 17 years minimum to replace all ICE cars. Currently, only 300,000 new purchases are EVs, so at a maximum, it will take 102 years to replace all ICE cars. So we can say that it will take between 17 and 102 years for ICE cars to be extinct.

I have previously argued in post #3954 that the natural rate* of EV purchases may not be as great as expected or 'needed' , so I would expect that 17 years would be an understatement, and it will probably be more like 30 or 40 years before ICEs become extinct. Thus petrol garages will be needed for a fair few years yet.

* Natural rate = without any government intervention. Once cars become as cheap as ICEs, the real life range is over 300 miles, charging facilities increase etc, the natural rate will increase.

 

[jon0844]

If car makers stop selling ICE cars by 2030 or 2035 (some are stopping sooner) then are some of these ICE owners keeping the same car on the road for 100 years?

EV production will either ramp up, more people will switch to second hand EVs that should last longer than many ICE cars, or maybe we'll just have less cars full stop.

When petrol prices rise further, many cars will be brought out from a garage for a car show or special occasions and will have to be a car worthy of such ownership. I suspect most of those car owners will be enthusiasts who will have likely bought an EV earlier than most.

Most people into cars aren't dismissing EVs as the group of people who are just anti EV and work hard coming up with use cases that make EV ownership look impossible.

Some examples posted recently don't point to keeping a petrol or diesel car but in fact having no car at all.

 

[dcbwhaley]

It's this sort of duplicitous argument that really endears the EVangelists to people...
The habits of ICE car use are well established, and refuelling takes a matter of minutes. If I have to charge a large battery taking at minimum 30mins, coupled with driving to the charge point and possibly waiting for the only functional charger to become free... I've suddenly lost a big chunk of my day either being unproductive twiddling my thumbs, or I've spent the best part of £10 getting an overpriced coffee I didn't need.

Driving to the charge point or petrol station: same for ICE or EV.
Waiting for charger or petrol to be available: somewhat worse for EV but queueing ten minutes for a petrol pump is not unusual.
Rather than twiddle your thumbs or drink overpriced coffee use the time your EV is charging to do your big shop.

BTW I am not an EVangelist: I drive an ICE and will never have an EV. Nor do I like being called brain-terminated by a hard of thinking individual

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Nov 2024 ==

Until there are accidents with injuries or worse, those with no consideration fopr others will probably do as tou say, but once the gloves are off the claims lawyers, things will need to change. The right to obstruct the public highway with a pedestrian hazard is not trumped by somebody's effort to save a bit on their car's energy cost.

But the right to obstruct the public highway with a pedestrian hazard is trumped by the council's effort to save money on rubbish collection. Has any body every successfully sued after being injured by stepping of the pavement to avoid a wheely bin?

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Driving to the charge point or petrol station: same for ICE or EV.
Waiting for charger or petrol to be available: somewhat worse for EV but queueing ten minutes for a petrol pump is not unusual.
Rather than twiddle your thumbs or drink overpriced coffee use the time your EV is charging to do your big shop.

BTW I am not an EVangelist: I drive an ICE and will never have an EV. Nor do I like being called brain-terminated by a hard of thinking individual

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Nov 2024 ==


But the right to obstruct the public highway with a pedestrian hazard is trumped by the council's effort to save money on rubbish collection. Has any body every successfully sued after being injured by stepping of the pavement to avoid a wheely bin?

Look up "thought terminating cliché"- it isn't a comment on a person's intelligence, it's a criticism of a rhetorical device. However your phrase "hard of thinking individual" definitely is. I'm fairly certain it breaches the rules of this website, but I'm not one to cry foul over silly things like that.

Apologies for lumping you in with the "EVangelists"- it was simply because the "you don't have a petrol pump at home" argument is one of their favourites.

 

[miklcct]

Rather than twiddle your thumbs or drink overpriced coffee use the time your EV is charging to do your big shop.

I don't need a car to do my big shop. I use my bicycle.

 

[GusB]

Look up "thought terminating cliché"- it isn't a comment on a person's intelligence, it's a criticism of a rhetorical device. However your phrase "hard of thinking individual" definitely is. I'm fairly certain it breaches the rules of this website, but I'm not one to cry foul over silly things like that.

Apologies for lumping you in with the "EVangelists"- it was simply because the "you don't have a petrol pump at home" argument is one of their favourites.

I'm by no means an EVangelist and I was, until fairly recently ,skeptical about real world use; however, the "don't have a petrol pump at home" argument is a very valid one. I have a petrol-engined car and I don't feel the need to have it "charged" to 100% every time I leave the house. I also don't have the ability to charge an EV at home but if I had an one it'd be more convenient to use the public charger down the road, plug in and walk home than having to do a 14 mile round trip into the main town to fill up, as I do currently.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I'm by no means an EVangelist and I was, until fairly recently ,skeptical about real world use; however, the "don't have a petrol pump at home" argument is a very valid one. I have a petrol-engined car and I don't feel the need to have it "charged" to 100% every time I leave the house. I also don't have the ability to charge an EV at home but if I had an one it'd be more convenient to use the public charger down the road, plug in and walk home than having to do a 14 mile round trip into the main town to fill up, as I do currently.

That length of round trip seems excessive, presumably you live somewhere fairly rural? The not having a petrol pump at home argument isn't really valid though- it usually comes up in response to those who aren't able to charge at home saying so... which usually only comes up after the EVangelist has raved about how fantastic Octopus are for charging their EV overnight. Which again is irrelevant if you can't charge at home.
If I was singing the praises of any company as much as you hear people talk about Octopus, I'd want to be on their payroll!

 

[jon0844]

I'd hope most people are on Octopus even if they don't have an EV, solar panels, home battery or heat pump. I'm saving hundreds being on a time of use tariff, and getting cheaper gas too.

I am not only not on their payroll but I have never posted my affiliate code here because that might suggest a bias. I genuinely recommend them to all and there's a reason why they've won so many awards.

 

[Krokodil]

If I was singing the praises of any company as much as you hear people talk about Octopus, I'd want to be on their payroll!

Well I do have a referral code so I could save a few quid now you mention it...

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Well I do have a referral code so I could save a few quid now you mention it...

If I had a driveway I might take you up on that!

 

[corfield]

Driving to the charge point or petrol station: same for ICE or EV.

I fill up 1-2 a month to do 8500 miles a year with 700+ miles from a fill.

I’ll get that from an EV right and wont have to go at least twice as often?

Waiting for charger or petrol to be available: somewhat worse for EV but queueing ten minutes for a petrol pump is not unusual.

You queue for pumps? I havent done that since there were fuel shortages!

That’s an absurd way to fuel your vehicle on a normal basis. I know some people like queing and I can only assume they are the same people who spend 10 mins driving round a car park to find a space near the front by which time I’ve parked at the edge, walked to the front, got what I want and am heading back.

Rather than twiddle your thumbs or drink overpriced coffee use the time your EV is charging to do your big shop.

Or you could listen to what people are saying in that they walk to the shops so why the retrograde step to a car, or indeed, just get it delivered.

Why this demand we have to go somewhere and sit and wait for ages? That sits at the opposite of modern living trends.

BTW I am not an EVangelist: I drive an ICE and will never have an EV. Nor do I like being called an idiot by a moron.

Standards.

I'm by no means an EVangelist and I was, until fairly recently ,skeptical about real world use; however, the "don't have a petrol pump at home" argument is a very valid one. I have a petrol-engined car and I don't feel the need to have it "charged" to 100% every time I leave the house.

No, but you can refill it in minutes few.

It also has twice the endurance so on average you arent going to have to think about that very often.

I also don't have the ability to charge an EV at home but if I had an one it'd be more convenient to use the public charger down the road, plug in and walk home than having to do a 14 mile round trip into the main town to fill up, as I do currently.

That’s a pretty small niche to be 14miles from a fuel station! Plus with 700miles to play with from a decent diesal, hardly a regular trip or something you can’t do on a trip anyway.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or you could listen to what people are saying in that they walk to the shops so why the retrograde step to a car, or indeed, just get it delivered.

Almost nobody who owns a car walks to the supermarket for their main weekly shop. Some do have it delivered, but the vast majority go there for it.

Don't forget that if you have off road parking (which again many do) you can just plug in overnight, taking no additional time at all.

 

[jon0844]

Almost nobody who owns a car walks to the supermarket for their main weekly shop. Some do have it delivered, but the vast majority go there for it.

Don't forget that if you have off road parking (which again many do) you can just plug in overnight, taking no additional time at all.

If I can charge my car off-road for 7p per kWh overnight, I will. Why wouldn't I? Should I feel guilty for those who bought or rented a property without off-road parking or a garage? I used to run two cars so bought a house with a driveway for two cars. I didn't have to, but I couldn't then moan about having to use a street. If I had designated parking in a block of flats, I'd be pushing the management company to install power points.

I am not expecting petrol to get significantly cheaper in the coming years, unless Reform UK gets in and decides to axe all fuel duty and VAT without a care about what to do with the lost income. Frankly, even they wouldn't do it in reality and no other party is going to do much more than freeze duty, while oil is likely to get more expensive. Ergo, petrol will get more expensive - and for those charging at 7 or 7.5p per kWh, it's already stupidly more expensive.

Electricity should hopefully get cheaper, and at least many people have the option to fit solar panels or a battery to get cheaper energy. Again, some can't and I can't really feel guilty there either. Everyone could move home, and in time most homes are going to be equipped for EVs, heat pumps, better insulation etc because buyers will demand it. If you live in a home that isn't up to standard, you'll likely need to do it if you want a good chance of selling it (or getting the money you want).

There are plenty of things other people can do that I can't and I don't worry about it.

 

[GusB]

That length of round trip seems excessive, presumably you live somewhere fairly rural? The not having a petrol pump at home argument isn't really valid though- it usually comes up in response to those who aren't able to charge at home saying so... which usually only comes up after the EVangelist has raved about how fantastic Octopus are for charging their EV overnight. Which again is irrelevant if you can't charge at home.
If I was singing the praises of any company as much as you hear people talk about Octopus, I'd want to be on their payroll!

I live in a village, so yes it's normal to have to travel to refuel, although obviously I don't make a specific journey to fill up.
The argument is still valid - it's not absolutely necessary to be able to charge at home.

No, but you can refill it in minutes few.

With a fast charger you can still be on your way in a relatively short period of time. You don't need to wait with your car while it does its thing. You also don't need to charge until it's full; I usually don't fill the tank every time I refuel.

It also has twice the endurance so on average you arent going to have to think about that very often.

That’s a pretty small niche to be 14miles from a fuel station! Plus with 700miles to play with from a decent diesal, hardly a regular trip or something you can’t do on a trip anyway.

It isn't really a small niche - not in this neck of the woods anyway. There are lots of small towns and villages that are a fair distance from a filling station. If they do have a local petrol station they're likely to be quite pricey and and will have limited opening hours, so planning is still required.

While we're on the subject of niche cases, how many people actually need the endurance and 700 miles to play with?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Absolutely nobody should be driving 700 miles without a break. Nobody.

 

[HSTEd]

Let's look at a few facts. There are currently 34 million cars on the roads in the UK. https://www.zap-map.com/ev-stats/ev-market. Of this, 1.3m are EVs. Each year there are approx 2m new cars purchased. https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-uk-by-month-2023

At this rate, even if all new cars purchased were EVs, it will take 17 years minimum to replace all ICE cars. Currently, only 300,000 new purchases are EVs, so at a maximum, it will take 102 years to replace all ICE cars. So we can say that it will take between 17 and 102 years for ICE cars to be extinct.

The first ten months of 2024 saw 262,487 pure EV and 113,278 plug in hybrids registered. In October the BEV+PHEV fraction broke through 30%.
Given that plug in vehicles do not tend to consume much fuel, they are an important factor in how we would expect the situation to develop.

I have previously argued in post #3954 that the natural rate* of EV purchases may not be as great as expected or 'needed' , so I would expect that 17 years would be an understatement, and it will probably be more like 30 or 40 years before ICEs become extinct. Thus petrol garages will be needed for a fair few years yet.

* Natural rate = without any government intervention. Once cars become as cheap as ICEs, the real life range is over 300 miles, charging facilities increase etc, the natural rate will increase.

Well the state has set a hard end date for ICE vehicle sales.
And it's coming relatively soon, it appears all new cars will be plug-in capable from 2030.
Once that happens people will have a choice of trying to keep ancient vehicles running or switching to electric or plug in vehicles. And in 2035 even the plug ins will dissapear.

I would expect fuel demand to start falling several percent per year from 2030, if not before - which will send the petrol station infrastructure into a deathspiral.
Diesel will last longer but the remaining petrol fleet will have serious fuel availabiltiy issues from then.

 

[MotCO]

The first ten months of 2024 saw 262,487 pure EV and 113,278 plug in hybrids registered. In October the BEV+PHEV fraction broke through 30%.
Given that plug in vehicles do not tend to consume much fuel, they are an important factor in how we would expect the situation to develop.

The original question was about how long before petrol stations start closing, and petrol becomes harder to buy. Hybrids still require petrol, so I would ignore your 113,278 plug in hybrids and just look at the 262,487 pure EVs for 10 months, which is not dissimilar to my 300,000 per year.

Well the state has set a hard end date for ICE vehicle sales.
And it's coming relatively soon, it appears all new cars will be plug-in capable from 2030.
Once that happens people will have a choice of trying to keep ancient vehicles running or switching to electric or plug in vehicles. And in 2035 even the plug ins will dissapear.

I would expect fuel demand to start falling several percent per year from 2030, if not before - which will send the petrol station infrastructure into a deathspiral.
Diesel will last longer but the remaining petrol fleet will have serious fuel availabiltiy issues from then.

Do you honestly see 2m EV sales in 2035 from a base of 300,000 in 2024? Based on 300,000 EV sales in 2024, to hit the target you need to sell an extra 170,000 EVs each year, which is 50% up on current sales. Yes, I accept it will not be straight line, but will EV sales hit 2m in 10 years? VW are struggling with sales and closing factories, and it increasingly looks as though we will be dependent on Chnese imports to hit this target. Is this good politically or economically?


Harry's Garage

has just released a new video on the electric Porsche Macan. It has a range of around 300 miles. But hitch a trailer or a caravan, and the range drops to 120 miles. So if you are going on holiday with your caravan, or taking a horsebox to a show, you have to stop to recharge every 100 miles. And recharging stations do not accommodate trailers: you will have to park up, unhitch the trailer, recharge, rehitch and move off. Not very practical.

For a number of reasons, I don't think EV sales will increase significantly in the next few years - we still need to see a significant uplift in charging facilities, technology to see range increases (especially if required for towing), price reductions etc.

 

[bspahh]

Given that plug in vehicles do not tend to consume much fuel, they are an important factor in how we would expect the situation to develop.

If a plug in hybrid is a company car which was chosen for cheaper tax, but you also get a card to get free fuel, then there isn't much of an incentive to plug them in. Once they get sold on and the owners pay for their own fuel, there is a bigger incentive to plug them in often.

Harry's Garage

has just released a new video on the electric Porsche Macan. It has a range of around 300 miles. But hitch a trailer or a caravan, and the range drops to 120 miles. So if you are going on holiday with your caravan, or taking a horsebox to a show, you have to stop to recharge every 100 miles. And recharging stations do not accommodate trailers: you will have to park up, unhitch the trailer, recharge, rehitch and move off. Not very practical.

I think that is more of a problem for manufacturers of caravans and horse box trailers than ones that make electric cars.