UK switching to electric vehicles discussion

[LYradial]

Let’s look at some facts.
1gigawatt = 1 million kilowatts
there are I think about 10 million cars in the uk. All electric is the dream
if just one million of those now plug in to their home charger at 7 kilowatt to charge up overnight that is 7 gigawatt they will need.
where will this electricity come from, at this moment we are importing electricity to meet our needs

 

[Energy]

Let’s look at some facts.
1gigawatt = 1 million kilowatts
there are I think about 10 million cars in the uk. All electric is the dream
if just one million of those now plug in to their home charger at 7 kilowatt to charge up overnight that is 7 gigawatt they will need.
where will this electricity come from, at this moment we are importing electricity to meet our needs

Undoubtably several GW extra generation will be required, this is reduced significantly by charging at night when we already have some excess generation.

Building extra wind generation isn’t a problem, it’s not like the oil rigs were always there. Grid connections and generation for EV charging sites is rarely a problem but there is a queue for grid connections since demand has significantly increased.

I can’t remember where I read it, but someone wrote a nice breakdown of charging infrastructure by location they hoped to see. It went roughly as follows:

Hotels/Overnight accommodation: 7kW
Event spaces(Cinemas etc): 11kW
Supermarkets: 150kw
Service Stations: 350kW

Makes perfect sense to me. Fastest chargers where you need them, then decrease the power by how long you are likely to stay there

Pretty much correct, though 7/11kW are pretty much interchangeable.

 

[Bald Rick]

Let’s look at some facts.
1gigawatt = 1 million kilowatts
there are I think about 10 million cars in the uk. All electric is the dream
if just one million of those now plug in to their home charger at 7 kilowatt to charge up overnight that is 7 gigawatt they will need.
where will this electricity come from, at this moment we are importing electricity to meet our needs

Whilst your Maths is correct your assumptions are erroneous.

There’s over 30 million cars in the county, more when when you include light vans.

There are now well over 1m EVs in the country, nearly 2m when you count plug in hybrids. As you can see from current grid statistics, there’s nowhere near an extra 7GW of demand out there. And that’s because not everyone charges overnight, and very very few charge every day,

The average car does a little under 7000 miles a year, which with pessimistic kWh / mile economy is 2000 kWh per year. That‘s an average of 45 minutes charging per day per car at 7kW.

Scaling up, with 30 million EVs on the road (which won‘t happen until the 2040s at best), if you assume that 2/3rds of all charging is at “night” from 9pm to 7am the next morning that reauires an average of around 10GW extra power from the grid each night.

As it happens, with the exception of perhaps a dozen cold & windless nights each year, we already have 10GW spare capacity in the grid between 9pm and 7am. Within the next 5-6 years we will have another 10GW of wind capacity too (which will kick out an average of 4GW over time) plus a similar amount of Solar which will prove rather useful for daytime charging. We already have variable price charging and this will become the standard for the majority of EV users, who will typically charge when the wind is blowing / sun is out and cheap rates (when there is loads of cheap power).

There’s really nothing to worry about.

 

[LYradial]

Whilst yiur Maths is correct your assumptions are erroneous.

There’s over 30 million cars in the county, more when when you include light vans.

There are now well over 1m EVs in the country, nearly 2m when you count plug in hybrids. As you can see from current grid statistics, there’s nowhere near an extra 7GW of demand out there. And that’s because not everyone charges overnight, and very very few charge every day,

The average car does a little under 7000 miles a year, which with pessimistic kWh / mile economy is 2000 kWh per year. That‘s an average of 45 minutes charging per day per car at 7kW.

Scaling up, with 30 million EVs on the road (which won‘t happen until the 2040s at best), if you assume that 2/3rds of all charging is at “night” from 9pm to 7am the next morning that reauires an average of around 10GW extra power from the grid each night.

As it happens, with the exception of perhaps a dozen cold & windless nights each year, we already have 10GW spare capacity in the grid between 9pm and 7am. Within the next 5-6 years we will have another 10GW of wind capacity too (which will kick out an average of 4GW over time) plus a similar amount of Solar which will prove rather useful for daytime charging. We already have variable price charging and this will become the standard for the majority of EV users, who will typically charge when the wind is blowing / sun is out and cheap rates (when there is loads of cheap power).

There’s really nothing to worry about.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Oct 2024 ==

I wasn’t worried, my mild hybrid will keep me going, I can use it to charge my mobile when (not if) we get our next power cut.
my log store will keep us going for cooking and warmth, I still have a supply of candles from the “three day week” anyone remember that?. It was not fun

 

[jon0844]

I can’t remember where I read it, but someone wrote a nice breakdown of charging infrastructure by location they hoped to see. It went roughly as follows:

Hotels/Overnight accommodation: 7kW
Event spaces(Cinemas etc): 11kW
Supermarkets: 150kw
Service Stations: 350kW

Makes perfect sense to me. Fastest chargers where you need them, then decrease the power by how long you are likely to stay there

That sounds logical. If someone can't charge at home, charging every week along with doing the weekly shop sounds logical. The supermarket could offer a discount to loyalty card holders or something to encourage you to shop there and charge, than the supermarket up the road. Wow, we might actually get some competition rather than cartel like* pricing elsewhere.

* Not saying it is a cartel, but it certainly looks like one at times.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Oct 2024 ==

Let’s look at some facts.
1gigawatt = 1 million kilowatts
there are I think about 10 million cars in the uk. All electric is the dream
if just one million of those now plug in to their home charger at 7 kilowatt to charge up overnight that is 7 gigawatt they will need.
where will this electricity come from, at this moment we are importing electricity to meet our needs

When I get my EV, I expect to need to charge it once a fortnight based on my usage. I might trickle charge it every night to keep it topped up for convenience (you know, one of those '2am phone calls where you need to drive London to Edinburgh in the falling snow' situations that anti-EV people think happens every day) but don't expect 1-3kWh is going to down the grid. If I heat the house with electric heaters on a day with cheap or negative priced electricity, I can be topping 7kWh easily - which is the same as most home car chargers.

Faster chargers use more power in a shorter space of time but still use the same power overall. Octopus will choose when to charge your car to balance the grid, with you saying you want 80, 90 or 100% charge by 6am or whatever. Let the grid work it out.

 

[Bald Rick]

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Oct 2024 ==

I wasn’t worried, my mild hybrid will keep me going, I can use it to charge my mobile when (not if) we get our next power cut.
my log store will keep us going for cooking and warmth, I still have a supply of candles from the “three day week” anyone remember that?. It was not fun

Fair enough.

When you get your next power cut, it won’t be due to a shortage of poer in the grid because of EV charging.

 

[thejuggler]

I'm still amazed at how little public chargers there are in places like supermarket car parks etc. There's car parks with 1,000 + spaces that install 6 for instance. I live opposite a shopping centre with nearly 2,000 spaces. Not 1 single charger

6-8 years ago I was quietly confident in electric cars taking off, and I do think we will get there, but these are the kind of places I assumed would be first in line to get chargers. People can do their shopping, go to the cinema etc and have their car charged for another week - it's the perfect place to have them !

I'm not surprised. A local superstore is having them installed and getting the work done has taken most of this year and it still isn't finished.

Similar to a local fuel station next to my wife's office. They started work when she moved in 18 months ago, even today the chargers aren't operational due to grid connection issues.

 

[E27007]

Despite their profitability, VW are also over $200 Billion in debt.
Almost 50% of their global earnings came from China, prior to Covid and the start of the mass roll out of EV's.
That source of income from China has shrunk massively and they are struggling to sell their cars there.
There's less demand for ICE vehicles and VW's EV's are too expensive and outclassed by the local competitors products.

Also, despite VW's significant levels of investment in German EV production, they have massive capacity devoted to ICE production, including major engine and transmission production facilities.
It isn't easy to just turn that off or transition away from.
There's a huge amount of capital investment and assets in those plants that can't easily be written off, not to mention an almost certain likelihood they'll have to put possibly 10's of thousands out of work.
Not an easy or cheap thing to do in Germany.

Former VW CEO, Herbert Diess was behind the companies full on charge into electrification, in a brave attempt to get ahead of the opposition.
However, being such a monolithic company with different internal VW divisions, each with their own corporate power bases, he faced a lot of opposition and internal politics, with various very senior executives fighting to save their own empires.
The unions were also very unhappy and fighting to keep the engine and gearbox plants going
Apparently this created a lot of turmoil, set against a very costly delay in launching the first ID car, the ID3 and the subsequent software debacle.
Diess was eventually removed. The company blob won.



.

The content of your posting is confirmed by the recent announcement of VW are proposing 10% salary cuts, a 2-year pay freeze and closure of 3 or more of 10 plants in Germany.
The realism of the path from IC to ZEV is pain and more pain for the carmakers and employees.
VW Group accounts for 5% of the German GDP, would the German Govt refuse to take action to protect VW from folding?
In production and employment will Mercedes and BMW follow suite with VW?

 

[Noddy]

The content of your posting is confirmed by the recent announcement of VW are proposing 10% salary cuts, a 2-year pay freeze and closure of 3 or more of 10 plants in Germany.
The realism of the path from IC to ZEV is pain and more pain for the carmakers and employees.
VW Group accounts for 5% of the German GDP, would the German Govt refuse to take action to protect VW from folding?
In production and employment will Mercedes and BMW follow suite with VW?

What are you proposing instead? That VW just continue making ICE vehicles? The problem with that is it’s bad for the environment and our health, and ultimately electric cars will supersede ICE cars regardless because they are better by virtually every metric (currently not purchase price but within the next 5-10 years they will be). If VW (and this applies to any manufacturer) fail to invest now in the EV transition they will be left behind by those manufacturers that do.

 

[E27007]

What are you proposing instead? That VW just continue making ICE vehicles? The problem with that is it’s bad for the environment and our health, and ultimately electric cars will supersede ICE cars regardless because they are better by virtually every metric (currently not purchase price but within the next 5-10 years they will be). If VW (and this applies to any manufacturer) fail to invest now in the EV transition they will be left behind by those manufacturers that do.

I predict that protests and political pressures by the car industry and the electorate will see the transition period of the ZEV mandate deadline , the end of sale of IC cars, will change from 2035 to much later such as 2045 for pragmatic reasons of business economics and employment concerns.

 

[AM9]

I predict that protests and political pressures by the car industry and the electorate will see the transition period of the ZEV mandate deadline , the end of sale of IC cars, will change from 2035 to much later such as 2045 for pragmatic reasons of business economics and employment concerns.

I predict the events like that which has just struck Valencia will rapidly increase the imperative to reduce CO2 generation as far as is possible (as opposed to 'as far as is popular'). The UK is by no means immune from such catastrophies but even if it does get away with less than mainland Europe, the pressures against continuing to feed the market with fossil fuel burners much beyond 2030 will increase such that they will become unavailable, - and as that happens, so will the fuel to burn, making IC vehicle use uneconomic. All that is without local zero emission schemes and specific road restrictions being legislated.

 

[johncrossley]

Most manufacturers are unlikely to maintain ICE models in the UK if the rest of Europe bans them or customers in the rest of Europe no longer want them.

 

[Silent]

I would think the battery tech needs to evolve and become less likely to explode or catch fire for EV's to really take over.

 

[E27007]

Most manufacturers are unlikely to maintain ICE models in the UK if the rest of Europe bans them or customers in the rest of Europe no longer want them.

With the political power and clout of Germany , if the German car industry heads for bankruptcy, then expect major revisions to the ZEV mandate, car sales in Europe pre-covid were at 16 million per annum, car sales fell and have not recovered, car sales are about 13 million per annum. The car industry is not only facing the ZEV transition challenge, it is facing less than predicted demand for all of its product line

 

[jon0844]

I would think the battery tech needs to evolve and become less likely to explode or catch fire for EV's to really take over.

99% of the vehicles that caught fire in Sweden were ICE vs electric, so I don't think we need concern ourselves with that. Plus we have LFP batteries becoming more common and solid state etc.

Frankly, nobody will want an ICE car by 2030, let alone 2045. We're approaching price parity now and ranges are almost beyond what most people could ever do without a break. Charging is getting faster too.

Anyone continuing to build ICE cars will find it harder and harder to sell them, unless they're very specialist vehicles for the most hardcore petrol heads.

Another reason people will want an EV is as a home battery to reduce energy bills. Who uses their petrol car as a generator to power their home or sell electricity to balance the grid?

 

[Darandio]

I would think the battery tech needs to evolve and become less likely to explode or catch fire for EV's to really take over.

Any evidence that they are exploding more than ICE cars?

 

[jon0844]

Any evidence that they are exploding more than ICE cars?

Of course not because there is none.

There's plenty of evidence from insurance companies that they aren't though.

 

[johncrossley]

The majority of new buses in much of Europe, including London, have been electric for a while. Diesel is unlikely to make a comeback.

 

[Bald Rick]

I predict that protests and political pressures by the car industry and the electorate will see the transition period of the ZEV mandate deadline , the end of sale of IC cars, will change from 2035 to much later such as 2045 for pragmatic reasons of business economics and employment concerns.

I predict that you will be wrong!

I would think the battery tech needs to evolve and become less likely to explode or catch fire for EV's to really take over.

FFS. Forum rules prevent me from writing what I want to!

 

[Mawkie]

I would think the battery tech needs to evolve and become less likely to explode or catch fire for EV's to really take over.

I expect you think the National Grid can't cope with an increase in electric cars either....

 

[RailWonderer]

I predict the events like that which has just struck Valencia will rapidly increase the imperative to reduce CO2 generation as far as is possible (as opposed to 'as far as is popular'). The UK is by no means immune from such catastrophies but even if it does get away with less than mainland Europe, the pressures against continuing to feed the market with fossil fuel burners much beyond 2030 will increase such that they will become unavailable, - and as that happens, so will the fuel to burn, making IC vehicle use uneconomic. All that is without local zero emission schemes and specific road restrictions being legislated.

We do way more than mainland Europe to reduce fuel consumption per capita.

CO₂ emissions per capita

An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.

ourworldindata.org

4.7t per person annually compared to Italy at nearly 6t, Germany and Poland at 8t, The US and Canada at 14t, Australia at 15t. The UK should be pressing Europe to pull their weight in the way Trump is asking Europe to pull their weight in with NATO expenditure. It's unfair we do all the climate austerity and fiscal heavy lifting when we consume so little compared to other countries with large populations.

 

[Silent]

99% of the vehicles that caught fire in Sweden were ICE vs electric, so I don't think we need concern ourselves with that. Plus we have LFP batteries becoming more common and solid state etc.

Frankly, nobody will want an ICE car by 2030, let alone 2045. We're approaching price parity now and ranges are almost beyond what most people could ever do without a break. Charging is getting faster too.

Anyone continuing to build ICE cars will find it harder and harder to sell them, unless they're very specialist vehicles for the most hardcore petrol heads.

Another reason people will want an EV is as a home battery to reduce energy bills. Who uses their petrol car as a generator to power their home or sell electricity to balance the grid?

Yeah I have to wait till solid state and less flammable batteries come out. I know it’s media fuelled fear but seeing that ev fires happen and are worse than ice fires puts me off considering getting an ev. There are much less ev’s than ice cars in the road so fire stats seem a bit skewed to say ice cars are more likely to catch fire.

 

[Bald Rick]

Yeah I have to wait till solid state and less flammable batteries come out. I know it’s media fuelled fear but seeing that ev fires happen and are worse than ice fires puts me off considering getting an ev. There are much less ev’s than ice cars in the road so fire stats seem a bit skewed to say ice cars are more likely to catch fire.

Every car on the road has a battery, and getting on for 10% of them have a battery that can be used for traction.

What proportion of car fires are EVs?

 

[Silent]

Every car on the road has a battery, and getting on for 10% of them have a battery that can be used for traction.

What proportion of car fires are EVs?

But aren’t the batteries much smaller hence a battery fire is rarer in them.

 

[jon0844]

Yeah I have to wait till solid state and less flammable batteries come out. I know it’s media fuelled fear but seeing that ev fires happen and are worse than ice fires puts me off considering getting an ev. There are much less ev’s than ice cars in the road so fire stats seem a bit skewed to say ice cars are more likely to catch fire.

The rates are per x,xxx vehicles so the lack of EVs isn't affecting the stats.

 

[Bald Rick]

But aren’t the batteries much smaller hence a battery fire is rarer in them.

Why would a battery fire be less likely with a smaller battery? Are bigger fuel tanks / bigger engines more likely to catch fire in cars with engines?

 

[Silent]

What do you think

 

[jon0844]

Did you see what happened to the car park at Luton airport? The fuel tank goes up and spreads fuel and eventually the whole car park burns down.

 

[MotCO]

Frankly, nobody will want an ICE car by 2030, let alone 2045. We're approaching price parity now and ranges are almost beyond what most people could ever do without a break. Charging is getting faster too.

Can you give examples of cars which are the same spec etc where the ICE version is close to the price of an EV? For example, an Astra GS ICE is £29,685, and EV is £37,239 OTR, which is an increase of 25%. Not exactly price parity.

 

[jon0844]

Vauxhall Frontera. £23495 for petrol hybrid and EV versions.

Older Vauxhall EVs are now being sold for £7-8k off list price, albeit some are pre-registered but still with delivery mileage.

Batteries are way cheaper now so there's a lot of price adjustments going on, hence why second hand values have fallen for some.

But it's good news for most people, especially those buying a second hand EV - and in 3 years imagine how cheap an e-C3, Dacia Spring and other cheaper EVs will be.