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Latest provisional figures from DfT (column G) of rail use vs pre pandemic
12th Oct 88%
13th Oct 88%
14th Oct 89%
15th Oct 95% Saturday
16th Oct 95% sunday
17th Oct 89%
18th Oct 87%
19th Oct 85%
20th Oct 82%
21st Oct 80%
22nd Oct 80%
23rd Oct 80%
24th Oct 82%
mods note - split from here Season tickets have never been ‘premium’ revenue, assuming 5 return trips per week and a 7-day season offers some of the cheapest travel on the network. The problem is the regular commuters numbers are much reduced. Other peak fares were mainly business travellers...
My understanding is that it is because:
- Fewer anytime tickets sold to businesses
- Less passengers travelling first class
- More commuting outside of peak hours, less during peak hours
- More passengers are in the very price-concious leisure travel category - more people are travelling on advance tickets
How would any of those mean that the market could support a sizable hike in off-peak fares?
The tube feels massively busier in the last couple of weeks I've used it. I've had to wait 1 or 2 trains to get on which I can never remember since before covid!
I've no idea if it's showing in the stats though - maybe just I'm travelling at busier times.
You can see in the published figures that London's system is very often only in the 70-80% range of normal.
Further to the above, this table shows why London has such a disproportionate effect on overall UK revenue. It shows the picture of the last year of normal travel.
City/region
2019-2020 passenger journeys starting or ending in area
London
1,069,920,000
Liverpool
105,646,000
West Midlands
104,984,000
Manchester
66,920,000
West Yorkshire
59,521,000
South Yorkshire
12,709,000
London lagging 10% is the equivalent of the country running almost entirely the next biggest passenger carrying area without charging passengers a penny. The cost of London's infrastructure makes it weigh heavier still.
More to the point, you have to wonder how much higher passenger numbers would be if it weren't for these problems. Of course the DfT will no doubt be doing the sums on the cost of resolving those issues/disputes vs the increased revenue which that could bring - and are sadly likely to conclude that it's financially better for things to muddle along as they are.
More to the point, you have to wonder how much higher passenger numbers would be if it weren't for these problems. Of course the DfT will no doubt be doing the sums on the cost of resolving those issues/disputes vs the increased revenue which that could bring - and are sadly likely to conclude that it's financially better for things to muddle along as they are.
Sadly I get the distinct impression that, even if it were better financially to resolve the issues (and it might well be), they’d still rather carry on as things are for dogmatic political reasons!
Here’s hoping for a little more pragmatism going forward.
Sadly I get the distinct impression that, even if it were better financially to resolve the issues (and it might well be), they’d still rather carry on as things are for dogmatic political reasons!
A quote direct from the Gov.UK website claims that -
As well as the huge impact on people’s day-to-day lives, economists have assessed that the first wave of rail strikes alone, in June 2022, cost the UK economy nearly £100 million, putting extra pressures on business and stopping people across the country from accessing their workplace during a cost-of-living crisis.
Conveniently ignoring the fact that if the Government had taken action to end the strikes by allowing TOCs to enter pay negotiations with the Unions, the resultant pay rise would have no doubt cost much less than this amount. But is there really any appetite from the DfT or TOC management to resolve this dispute?
That surely depends on how much was agreed. Scotrail settled on 5% ish.
Also it isn’t just one wave of strikes when you consider all the issues around RDW etc. across multiple TOCs. And those issues won’t be going away with the minimum service level legislation….
I hesitate to mention anything on train driver (or other grades) pay, but given that they are comparatively well paid and there are quite large numbers of them working for the railway, back of the envelope maths indicates it wouldn't take much of a rise at all before it blew the cost of the strikes out of the water.
Especially considering strikes reduce the driver (or other grades) wage bill because they don't have to be paid for those days.
I hesitate to mention anything on train driver (or other grades) pay, but given that they are comparatively well paid and there are quite large numbers of them working for the railway, back of the envelope maths indicates it wouldn't take much of a rise at all before it blew the cost of the strikes out of the water.
Especially considering strikes reduce the driver (or other grades) wage bill because they don't have to be paid for those days.
Maths isn’t a strong suit of mine (I’m more of a humanities guy), so excuse any obvious errors, but some rough figures:
21,000 (from their website) ASLEF* members on an assumed £60k basic = £1.26BN
A 5% no strings wage increase (in line with what ASLEF have accepted in Scotland, so likely enough to stop the disputes in their tracks) takes that to £1.323BN, so a £63,000,000 increase. Across the whole country, and with the cost amortised across the next year and further reduced by inflation.
Seems like pretty good value to me… Especially when compared with the cost of a 3% increase for 600,000+ NHS nurses!
It’s never seemed to be a problem in the past no matter how bad things where with the country & its economy. I’m struggling to remember a year before 2020 when I haven’t had a pay increase.
Albeit offset by the current extremely high rate of inflation, and of course revenue will continue to rise through population growth and habits going back to “normal” post Covid.
Isn’t this really an argument for nobody ever getting a pay rise unless they’re promoted/change jobs?
Albeit offset by the current extremely high rate of inflation, and of course revenue will continue to rise through population growth and habits going back to “normal” post Covid.
Yes I did, and I heard a suggestion on a news article recently* that there is unrest among scotrail drivers that they accepted 5% but inflation has risen to double that in a matter of a few months. So that mioght not be the last we hear of driver action in Scotland.
* don't bother to ask me which news because what was said was more important that which (radio) station and which news programme, however I clearly remember hearing it.
Really really busy this week, and the station car parks are looking full again. Even the morning peak seems to be recovering well. I'll be looking forward to seeing the passenger numbers for this week - I've been surprised how busy it is.
Albeit offset by the current extremely high rate of inflation, and of course revenue will continue to rise through population growth and habits going back to “normal” post Covid.
Inflation has nothing direct to do with this particular point. Pay rises do - the point being that the cost of a pay rise this year is also the same cost next year, and the year after, and the year after that, and so on in perpetuity. And of course there is the multiplier affect.
No, this is an argument about how much a strike is costing the railway in lost revenue now (an in year cost) to the cost of paying a big pay rise (an ongoing cost every year).
Incidentally the £100m quoted up thread for the first round of strikes is quite a large overestimate. I’m not at liberty to say how much by. It is also a gross revenue figure, and doesn’t take into account the savings made during strike days through not running a service (which is a fairly substantial sum).
Don’t get me wrong, the strikes are costing the industry money - money it could sorely do with, as we shall soon see. But it is costing nowhere near as much money as a big across the board pay rise without productivity improvement would cost. Hence why, in my view, Government are quite content to sit it out. The smarter unions have now worked this out.
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Really really busy this week, and the station car parks are looking full again. Even the morning peak seems to be recovering well. I'll be looking forward to seeing the passenger numbers for this week - I've been surprised how busy it is.
Comparatively - the same as last week, and down on the week before. Also compared to Pre covid, the trend has been slightly downward since the end of August.
Don’t get me wrong, the strikes are costing the industry money - money it could sorely do with, as we shall soon see. But it is costing nowhere near as much money as a big across the board pay rise without productivity improvement would cost. Hence why, in my view, Government are quite content to sit it out. The smarter unions have now worked this out.
Personally I think the only way forward here is for a pay increase coupled with productivity improvements. But then I am not a railway employee, so it doesn't affect me directly in any case. I hope for some positive movements in the negotiations, specifically for the lower-paid staff, because the current situation hurts everyone.
Comparatively - the same as last week, and down on the week before. Also compared to Pre covid, the trend has been slightly downward since the end of August.
It’s never seemed to be a problem in the past no matter how bad things were with the country & its economy. I’m struggling to remember a year before 2020 when I haven’t had a pay increase.
Passenger numbers and revenue are significantly down, and seemingly have been ‘reset’ To a post Covid new normal at around 80-85% of 2019, when without Covid we would have been at around 115-120%. The cost base, meanwhile, is significantly up on 2019. Government is not prepared to continue to fund the gap.
As I have said elsewhere, some very difficult decisions ahead.
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Which is exactly what is proposed. Some parts of the industry have accepted this. Most hasn’t - albeit in some cases because a formal offer along those lines hasn’t been placed (but no doubt it has been discussed)
Comparatively - the same as last week, and down on the week before. Also compared to Pre covid, the trend has been slightly downward since the end of August.
Really? We're in the sixth month of rail strikes now with no end in sight. This may or may not have indirectly led to (or at least influenced) strikes in other sectors. Given the negative impact on revenue from fares the Government receives, the potential for permanent suppression of passenger numbers as people find alternatives to rail not to mention associated loss in productivity related to the strikes, maybe we are approaching £1bn cost to the UK economy.
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Which is exactly what is proposed. Some parts of the industry have accepted this. Most hasn’t - albeit in some cases because a formal offer along those lines hasn’t been placed (but no doubt it has been discussed)
No offer of any kind has been made to TOC staff because the DfT is preventing TOCs from even starting any pay negotiations with the Unions. Productivity increases have often formed part of pay deals on the railway, particularly for drivers as over the years various enhancements etc have been amalgamated into the headline salary and drivers have agreed more flexible working practices in exchange for a higher rate of basic pay.
Funnily enough, I thought exactly the same. Got a seat at Victoria (northbound) at 1630 and we left with several empty ones in the carriage that I using!
Trains around Sussex had been quiet during the day too. Even a 4-car from Redhill via East Croydon.
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