UK General Election 2024: The Results & Aftermath

[Trackman]

I think a World Cup win would be a bank holiday worthy occasion (you would presumably schedule it the same time as a victory parade through London)

France did it, didn't they?

 

[joieman]

One thing that concerns me about the new Labour government is that it might lead to increased political polarisation and extremism from both right and left. On the left, the Labour victory potentially means further progression towards the left; on the other hand, right-wingers aggravated by the results might pass Reform next time after being disappointed by their relatively poor performance in this election, in favour of other more radical parties... like the BNP. Thereby, British politics could potentially become more volatile.

 

[brad465]

Correct, the next Tory PM may very well not be a current MP.

In recent history PMs who came to power by winning an election entered parliament in the election following the one that saw their party leave power: Blair became an MP in 1983, Cameron in 2001 and Starmer in 2015. So yes I would expect the next Tory PM to be in the next intake, also giving them the advantage they had no responsibility for the downfall of their party last time.

 

[takno]

One thing that concerns me about the new Labour government is that it might lead to increased political polarisation and extremism from both right and left. On the left, the Labour victory potentially means further progression towards the left; on the other hand, right-wingers aggravated by the results might pass Reform next time after being disappointed by their relatively poor performance in this election, in favour of other more radical parties... like the BNP. Thereby, British politics could potentially become more volatile.

Any particular reason that you think that would happen?

 

[Shaw S Hunter]

One thing that concerns me about the new Labour government is that it might lead to increased political polarisation and extremism from both right and left. On the left, the Labour victory potentially means further progression towards the left; on the other hand, right-wingers aggravated by the results might pass Reform next time after being disappointed by their relatively poor performance in this election, in favour of other more radical parties... like the BNP. Thereby, British politics could potentially become more volatile.

For younger people who have only known a Tory government the policies of the new Labour government will, by comparison, feel like a noticeable shift to the left. However in practice Starmer has been very determined in his efforts to curb the influence of genuine left-wingers in his party and the current state of public finances is not going to allow for much by way of traditional public spending led developments in policy. True left-wingers will soon be complaining about government timidity in dealing with the problems bedevilling the country but it is clear that Labour's majority, though large in terms of MPs, is rather limited in terms of real public support. As such I wouldn't expect anything very radical in a first term in office.

However polarisation of the right in British politics seems almost inevitable. The Tories need to rethink what it is they really stand for and that process is going to be divisive with some feeling unable to remain in the party. Whether that means there will be defections to Reform or attempts to create another rightist party remains to be seen. While some may well want to push a hard right agenda history suggests that British voters are not all that keen on real extremists on either side.

 

[Thirteen]

I do wonder if the next Tory PM could be someone who perhaps was born in the 2000s so they would have grown up under the Conservative 2010-2024 so will see how to fix the mistakes of the past.

 

[joieman]

Any particular reason that you think that would happen?

With regards to progression to the left, are Labour, for instance, going to crack down on eco protesters blocking roads, or the teaching of critical race theory,
combat antisemitism, end illegal immigration, ensure that our sovereignty under Brexit is protected or ensure that free speech actually means free speech? Between you and me, I don't think so.

However polarisation of the right in British politics seems almost inevitable. The Tories need to rethink what it is they really stand for and that process is going to be divisive with some feeling unable to remain in the party. Whether that means there will be defections to Reform or attempts to create another rightist party remains to be seen. While some may well want to push a hard right agenda history suggests that British voters are not all that keen on real extremists on either side.

Having already explained my hypothesis of increased support for the far-right, I feel it worthy to add that the political right may go through quite a bit of turmoil as people try to figure out where their alliances truly lie.
In my relatively few years on this planet, the Labour Party has never appealed to me. When I was a child, I thought the name "Labour" sounded harsh, and I don't think my parents would have had much good to say about them at that point in time. Let's not forget that a couple years before I was born, Labour dragged the country to war against Iraq despite major public opposition. However, the beginning of my teenage years coincided with the period that Jeremy Corbyn was Labour's leader, and the rampant antisemitism of Corbyn gave me concrete reason to dislike the Labour Party forever. This time around, I thought that Labour's policy was rather wishy-washy.

 

[nw1]

Ah, yes, 30p Lee, as my mother calls him. I'm surprised he actually won.

I'm not as Ashfield appears to be, from what I gather. a very socially conservative area. People didn't want to vote for the big-C Conservatives, but they were quite happy to vote for an (extreme) small-c conservative.

And Anderson had the advantage of the incumbent effect.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2024 ==

With regards to progression to the left, are Labour, for instance, going to crack down on eco protesters blocking roads, or the teaching of critical race theory,
combat antisemitism, end illegal immigration, ensure that our sovereignty under Brexit is protected or ensure that free speech actually means free speech? Between you and me, I don't think so.

I suspect they will combat antisemitism (as in genuine antisemitism, rather than criticism of the actions of the Israeli government) and preserve free speech when it isn't hate speech. However I suspect they don't care too much for the other things, and rightly so. There are more important priorities such as fixing the NHS, dealing with the cost of living crisis, ensuring fair pay, and protecting public services and jobs. I notice you seem to equate Brexit as an equal good to combatting antisemitism, which is a bit bizarre, to put it mildly.

Having already explained my hypothesis of increased support for the far-right, I feel it worthy to add that the political right may go through quite a bit of turmoil as people try to figure out where their alliances truly lie.
In my relatively few years on this planet, the Labour Party has never appealed to me. When I was a child, I thought the name "Labour" sounded harsh, and I don't think my parents would have had much good to say about them at that point in time. Let's not forget that a couple years before I was born, Labour dragged the country to war against Iraq despite major public opposition.

The Tories at the time would have done exactly the same thing. I can guarantee you that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2024 ==

In recent history PMs who came to power by winning an election entered parliament in the election following the one that saw their party leave power: Blair became an MP in 1983, Cameron in 2001 and Starmer in 2015. So yes I would expect the next Tory PM to be in the next intake, also giving them the advantage they had no responsibility for the downfall of their party last time.

In terms of when the Tories will regain power, I can see four possibilities of how things might pan out:

a) Labour do a relatively good job given the circumstances, and comfortably win next time, as a result - irrespective of who the Tory leader is. This is what I hope will happen and is probably the most likely to happen, as my feeling is that this is a relatively sober and critically, non-ideological government who will do the best they can.

b) Labour slip up and the Tories gain a new moderate leader such as Hunt or Tugendhat. The Tories move back to the centre-right and abandon the Johnson-Truss-Sunak legacy. This could lead to the Tories regaining power next time, probably as the largest party in a hung parliament rather than an outright majority.

c) Labour slip up, but the Tories are led by someone like Badenoch or Jenrick. Result is the Tories remain toxic, and Labour win again as the least-worst option.

d) A variant of c) in which Reform gain many more seats. The Tories form an alliance with Reform under a hard-right leader like Badenoch or Jenrick, with Reform managing 100 seats, while the Tories manage around 230. This leads to the nightmare scenario of the possibility of a Tory-Reform coalition in 2029 with the combined seats of both parties getting over the 326 line.

Any thoughts as to which of these might pan out (or something else entirely)?

 

[ainsworth74]

The Tories at the time would have done exactly the same thing. I can guarantee you that.

Quite. Indeed one need only look at at the Parliamentary vote on the issue on March 2003 where a higher proportion of Tory MPs voted in favour than Labour.

 

[joieman]

I notice you seem to equate Brexit as an equal good to combatting antisemitism, which is a bit bizarre, to put it mildly.

The reason why I still support Brexit nowadays is that our relationship with the EU as a non-member is more flexible than if we were still a member state. Admittedly the Conservatives got us a poor Brexit deal, but in principle I remain convinced Brexit was the right choice for Britain.
The effects of Brexit on the economy are difficult to measure, because after the UK formally left the EU, we almost immediately went straight into lockdown.

 

[AlterEgo]

With regards to progression to the left, are Labour, for instance, going to crack down on eco protesters blocking roads, or the teaching of critical race theory,
combat antisemitism, end illegal immigration, ensure that our sovereignty under Brexit is protected or ensure that free speech actually means free speech? Between you and me, I don't think so.

I don’t understand how these signal a “progression to the left”. Labour is outflanked on the left by a traditionally centrist party, the Liberal Democrats.

Why is free speech a right wing issue? The previous govnernent was very right wing yet had little concern for people’s free speech. What’s the difference?

Labour could best be described as mid-authoritarian normie-ism which doesn’t hugely appeal to me either but I don’t think they’re “left wing” in the traditional sense.

 

[Noddy]

That list appears to be some misleading feel-good guff that ScotGov put out so that we can all feel blessed. There's a more accurate list on gov.uk somewhere.

Boxing Day isn't a bank holiday in Scotland, and St Andrew's is a weird thing that is simultaneously declared by the Scottish government but doesn't even have the diminished legal status the other holidays do. Given the difference from England and Wales, the lower legal status of all the holidays, the weird local holidays and everything else, most of the time nobody really knows if they're supposed to have a holiday or not.

Never knew Boxing Day wasn't a bank holiday in Scotland.

In practice, do many people in "traditional office jobs" actually go into work on Boxing Day or is it a de-facto holiday?

Presumably Christmas Day is less significant than Hogmanay in Scotland, as people would have to moderate their habits, so to speak, in the knowledge they might have to go into work the following day.

Does the railway run a full Mon-Fri service on Boxing Day north of the border? Was this the case in BR days?

Well according to both the Scottish and UK governments Boxing Day is a bank holiday in Scotland:

UK bank holidays

Find out when bank holidays are in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland - including past and future bank holidays

www.gov.uk

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2024 ==

St Andrew’s Day is the 30th of November, which this year is a Saturday. Therefore the 2nd being a Monday is the substitute.

Yes that makes sense, cheers!

 

[Bayum]

One thing that concerns me about the new Labour government is that it might lead to increased political polarisation and extremism from both right and left. On the left, the Labour victory potentially means further progression towards the left; on the other hand, right-wingers aggravated by the results might pass Reform next time after being disappointed by their relatively poor performance in this election, in favour of other more radical parties... like the BNP. Thereby, British politics could potentially become more volatile.

Many of the conservatives to the left of the party (Keegan, Mordaunt etc) have since lost their seats and the majority positioning themselves for leadership debate are to the right of the party - Badenoch, Braverman etc. A Conservative Party lurching to the right and jostling against Reform for their vote share will not be good. My hope is that Labour will value the left and introduce some left wing policies but we shall see.

 

[joieman]

Why is free speech a right wing issue? The previous govnernent was very right wing yet had little concern for people’s free speech. What’s the difference?

In my perception, the Tories were moving further to the left, to the point where some referred to it as the "uniparty". Combine that with Rishi Sunak's tactless leadership (failing to stop the migrant boats from crossing the Channel, for instance), and you can see that I thought the Tories and Labour looked quite similar. I suppose, though, it is a matter of personal perspective. I would, however, think that it would be in the best interest of the Tories to purge many of the top recycled brass of the party from leadership roles in favour of newcomers if they want to win their voters back.

 

[takno]

In my perception, the Tories were moving further to the left, to the point where some referred to it as the "uniparty". Combine that with Rishi Sunak's tactless leadership (failing to stop the migrant boats from crossing the Channel, for instance), and you can see that I thought the Tories and Labour looked quite similar. I suppose, though, it is a matter of personal perspective. I would, however, think that it would be in the best interest of the Tories to purge many of the top recycled brass of the party from leadership roles in favour of newcomers if they want to win their voters back.

I don't think it is a matter of personal perspective. I think you are just wrong tbh. Part of the problem appears to be that you are focusing on immigration, and in particular on migrant boats. This just isn't a major dividing factor in politics, in spite of the determination of right wing extremists to pretend it is. Most people on all sides of the argument just want people to stop coming, stop drowning, where they do arrive to be promptly and fairly returned or accepted, and for the whole thing to stop costing a stupid amount of money.

You say you are young, and it's possible you just don't have any significant perspective on the impact the state can (and arguably should) have on peoples' lives, and the impact of the Conservative government against the impact of previous governments. This might lead you to believe that it's normal to have utterly broken public services, a poverty-stricken and miserable population, and government by morally bankrupt sociopaths. It isn't.

 

[joieman]

Most people on all sides of the argument just want people to stop coming, stop drowning, where they do arrive to be promptly and fairly returned or accepted, and for the whole thing to stop costing a stupid amount of money.

I quite agree.
That Rwanda thing seemed like a gimmick to me.

You say you are young, and it's possible you just don't have any significant perspective on the impact the state can (and arguably should) have on peoples' lives, and the impact of the Conservative government against the impact of previous governments. This might lead you to believe that it's normal to have utterly broken public services, a poverty-stricken and miserable population, and government by morally bankrupt sociopaths. It isn't.

Of course it isn't normal. I, for instance, don't like all the cuts that have happened to bus services in my locality. And I didn't realise until recently just how expensive cheese was, for one thing. As for health services, I'm really rather oblivious to them as since over a decade ago I've only been inside a hospital twice... both of which were work-shadowing a building contractor at a mental hospital back in May.
Moreover, most of my first year at college has also involved looking for a new house, as the rented house we live in is in a particularly poor state of repair. Unfortunately, in my local area house rental prices have shot up in the past few years, with a glut of student Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMOs) almost certainly a contributing factor. The effect is that most rentals in my area are roughly 60% more expensive than the current house.

 

[3141]

I'm not as Ashfield appears to be, from what I gather. a very socially conservative area. People didn't want to vote for the big-C Conservatives, but they were quite happy to vote for an (extreme) small-c conservative.

And Anderson had the advantage of the incumbent effect.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2024 ==


I suspect they will combat antisemitism (as in genuine antisemitism, rather than criticism of the actions of the Israeli government) and preserve free speech when it isn't hate speech. However I suspect they don't care too much for the other things, and rightly so. There are more important priorities such as fixing the NHS, dealing with the cost of living crisis, ensuring fair pay, and protecting public services and jobs. I notice you seem to equate Brexit as an equal good to combatting antisemitism, which is a bit bizarre, to put it mildly.

The Tories at the time would have done exactly the same thing. I can guarantee you that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2024 ==



In terms of when the Tories will regain power, I can see four possibilities of how things might pan out:

a) Labour do a relatively good job given the circumstances, and comfortably win next time, as a result - irrespective of who the Tory leader is. This is what I hope will happen and is probably the most likely to happen, as my feeling is that this is a relatively sober and critically, non-ideological government who will do the best they can.

b) Labour slip up and the Tories gain a new moderate leader such as Hunt or Tugendhat. The Tories move back to the centre-right and abandon the Johnson-Truss-Sunak legacy. This could lead to the Tories regaining power next time, probably as the largest party in a hung parliament rather than an outright majority.

c) Labour slip up, but the Tories are led by someone like Badenoch or Jenrick. Result is the Tories remain toxic, and Labour win again as the least-worst option.

d) A variant of c) in which Reform gain many more seats. The Tories form an alliance with Reform under a hard-right leader like Badenoch or Jenrick, with Reform managing 100 seats, while the Tories manage around 230. This leads to the nightmare scenario of the possibility of a Tory-Reform coalition in 2029 with the combined seats of both parties getting over the 326 line.

Any thoughts as to which of these might pan out (or something else entirely)?

If my crystal ball was that good, my services would be much in demand and my fees very high.

When Harold Macmillan was asked about the most challenging events for a statesman, he is said to have answered "Events, dear boy, events." Recent events have included Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

If nothing even half as disturbing as those two occurs over the next five years, your option (a) seems reasonably likely. I wonder what the chances are that there will be no serious events between now and 2029.

But if something major happens, and depending what it is, or how many other things happen as well, options (b) right down to (z) could arise.

 

[nw1]

In my perception, the Tories were moving further to the left, to the point where some referred to it as the "uniparty". Combine that with Rishi Sunak's tactless leadership (failing to stop the migrant boats from crossing the Channel, for instance), and you can see that I thought the Tories and Labour looked quite similar. I suppose, though, it is a matter of personal perspective. I would, however, think that it would be in the best interest of the Tories to purge many of the top recycled brass of the party from leadership roles in favour of newcomers if they want to win their voters back.

I would certainly not say the Tories were moving to the left. Speaking as someone who remembers Thatcher onwards, the recent version of the Tories (as in, under the leadership of Johnson, Truss and Sunak) seemed to me to be the most right-wing, socially, since Thatcher, due to its obsession with immigration and the "war on woke".

The vast number of Lib Dem gains in a swathe from roughly the Oxford area to the Brighton area, including seats that have always been Tory, is a sure sign that they are doing something wrong and if they want these voters back, anything other than a move back towards the centre would be a mistake. They won't win any of these seats back under the likes of Badenoch, Jenrick or Patel, that's for certain. Even Cleverly is someone I personally perceive as rather right-wing.

 

[dosxuk]

end illegal immigration

Give up on this as an aim. No party on any side of the political spectrum will be able to deliver this and remain in power.

The only way to stop illegal immigration is to make the UK so unappealing that nobody would ever want to come here. Do that though and you'll find a lot of the locals won't want to live here either.

Parties suggesting stopping it are just dog-whistling - they have no plan or ability to deliver, but it gets people to listen to them.

Bear in mind not even North Korea has managed to stamp out illegal immigration.

 

[Yew]

Give up on this as an aim. No party on any side of the political spectrum will be able to deliver this and remain in power.

The only way to stop illegal immigration is to make the UK so unappealing that nobody would ever want to come here. Do that though and you'll find a lot of the locals won't want to live here either.

Parties suggesting stopping it are just dog-whistling - they have no plan or ability to deliver, but it gets people to listen to them.

Bear in mind not even North Korea has managed to stamp out illegal immigration.

You could get rid of illegal immigration if you make all immigration legal; but somehow I don't think that reform would go for that one!

 

[joieman]

Bear in mind not even North Korea has managed to stamp out illegal immigration.

North Korea's problem is mainly illegal emigration. As far as I'm concerned, people don't have the right to just waltz into any random country as they please. That would be like if someone walked into a house uninvited. On the other hand, not letting people out is in my opinion a travesty.

 

[Bald Rick]

And I didn't realise until recently just how expensive cheese was, for one thing.

That is a disgrace !

 

[JamesT]

That is a disgrace !

But how are your pork markets?

 

[edwin_m]

I would certainly not say the Tories were moving to the left. Speaking as someone who remembers Thatcher onwards, the recent version of the Tories (as in, under the leadership of Johnson, Truss and Sunak) seemed to me to be the most right-wing, socially, since Thatcher, due to its obsession with immigration and the "war on woke".

The vast number of Lib Dem gains in a swathe from roughly the Oxford area to the Brighton area, including seats that have always been Tory, is a sure sign that they are doing something wrong and if they want these voters back, anything other than a move back towards the centre would be a mistake. They won't win any of these seats back under the likes of Badenoch, Jenrick or Patel, that's for certain. Even Cleverly is someone I personally perceive as rather right-wing.

The Boris economic policy, as set out in 2019, was quite like the policies of pre-Thatcher governments of either colour, looking to distribute spending out to the regions and "pick winners" in industry to receive government funding. However he actually did very little of either, so managed to alienate both traditional Tories who disliked the idea of tax and spend and the Red Wall who didn't get what they thought they had been promised.

 

[The Ham]

An adjacent article said Jenrick was emerging as a potential "unity candidate", with popularity among younger Tory voters.

So those in their 50's!!!

I'm not as Ashfield appears to be, from what I gather. a very socially conservative area. People didn't want to vote for the big-C Conservatives, but they were quite happy to vote for an (extreme) small-c conservative.

And Anderson had the advantage of the incumbent effect.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2024 ==


I suspect they will combat antisemitism (as in genuine antisemitism, rather than criticism of the actions of the Israeli government) and preserve free speech when it isn't hate speech. However I suspect they don't care too much for the other things, and rightly so. There are more important priorities such as fixing the NHS, dealing with the cost of living crisis, ensuring fair pay, and protecting public services and jobs. I notice you seem to equate Brexit as an equal good to combatting antisemitism, which is a bit bizarre, to put it mildly.

The Tories at the time would have done exactly the same thing. I can guarantee you that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2024 ==



In terms of when the Tories will regain power, I can see four possibilities of how things might pan out:

a) Labour do a relatively good job given the circumstances, and comfortably win next time, as a result - irrespective of who the Tory leader is. This is what I hope will happen and is probably the most likely to happen, as my feeling is that this is a relatively sober and critically, non-ideological government who will do the best they can.

b) Labour slip up and the Tories gain a new moderate leader such as Hunt or Tugendhat. The Tories move back to the centre-right and abandon the Johnson-Truss-Sunak legacy. This could lead to the Tories regaining power next time, probably as the largest party in a hung parliament rather than an outright majority.

c) Labour slip up, but the Tories are led by someone like Badenoch or Jenrick. Result is the Tories remain toxic, and Labour win again as the least-worst option.

d) A variant of c) in which Reform gain many more seats. The Tories form an alliance with Reform under a hard-right leader like Badenoch or Jenrick, with Reform managing 100 seats, while the Tories manage around 230. This leads to the nightmare scenario of the possibility of a Tory-Reform coalition in 2029 with the combined seats of both parties getting over the 326 line.

Any thoughts as to which of these might pan out (or something else entirely)?

Given those under 45 have been getting more left wing as they age rather than the historic norm of getting more right wing, that could be a factor in how things work out.

Johnson was the first PM to be voted in by now people who were of retirement age then working age. Due to the way life is, quite a few of them are likely no longer with us. Which could also be another factor.

Personally I think that Labour would have to make a significant error to be out next time, especially if they get the voting age reduced to 16.

Of course the incumbent MP always has a boost at elections, so that's a further factor to maintain the current mix.

Also, I'm not sure that Reform are on such a big growth as some think. Whilst they got next to nothing in terms of vote in 2019, that's in part as they didn't stand in a lot of seats. If you look at UKIP at the previous election they got just under 5 million, this time Reform got just over 5 million - so hardly significant growth.

Yes they got a lot more MP's this time, however they now have to put in some hard work to retain them (by being good MP's). There was also a bit of support from younger people as Reform were promising more than they could deliver.

There's reports that Reform HQ have been standing down local candidates and replacing them with the HQ Party faithful (this has come out because people have looked at candidates who could have been fake candidates) as well as taking money from the local level. If that's true that's not going to be a sustainable model, which could harm their reputation (or at the very least local good will).

 

[urbophile]

North Korea's problem is mainly illegal emigration. As far as I'm concerned, people don't have the right to just waltz into any random country as they please. That would be like if someone walked into a house uninvited. On the other hand, not letting people out is in my opinion a travesty.

If Britain and other colonising nations hadn't waltzed into several random countries in the past, we wouldn't have anything like the same problems we have now.

 

[takno]

If Britain and other colonising nations hadn't waltzed into several random countries in the past, we wouldn't have anything like the same problems we have now.

I mean that's true, but we did walk out with a lot of their stuff, so, swings and roundabouts

 

[AM9]

I mean that's true, but we did walk out with a lot of their stuff, so, swings and roundabouts

The benefits of raiding undeveloped countries' assets have long since been squandered, leaving the country with an unenviable reputation of wallowing in dubious past glory..

 

[renegademaster]

If Britain and other colonising nations hadn't waltzed into several random countries in the past, we wouldn't have anything like the same problems we have now.

Considering most immigrants aren't from our former colonies anymore , theirs only really a tenuous link

 

[nw1]

Back on topic, it's interesting to note there are several cases where incumbent Tories appeared to make the "less safe" choice in cases where their seat was split or altered.

Firstly Jeremy Hunt went for Godalming and Ash which he won, just, but it appears that Farnham and Bordon was the safer as it was won for the Tories (on an only slightly bigger majority, admittedly) by an unknown. Could Hunt, as the incumbent, have achieved a larger majority had he gone for that seat?

Secondly Bob Seely on the IoW went for Isle of Wight West, which was won by Labour, but Isle of Wight East was won by an unknown Tory. Should he have gone for East?

Lastly Gillian Keegan stuck with Chichester (which was won by the Liberal Democrats) yet the more Conservative-leaning areas of the "old" Chichester were transferred to safe Arundel and South Downs. Thus should she have switched to the latter?