UK General Election 2024: The Results & Aftermath

[edwin_m]

Unless you allow use of a bus between Carmarthen and Aberyswith, you can't avoid South Shropshire.

There's a Blue border across the whole middle of the country, the only way to go around is the TrawsCymru bus connection.

I only said "travel", I didn't specify travel by train.

 

[TheSmiths82]

I am a bit disappointed with how the results panned out. It is great that Labour got such a huge vote majority with but with such a small vote share it is so fragile. Reform also really worry me but I hope they will make a fool of themselves, also hopefully more information about their funding might come out. For now I just hope the new government actual start running the country. I will give them a chance, and no doubt things will disappoint me but we can't have everything. I feel a bit lost now though after spending most my time since 2016 critising the government I feel my hobby has gone .

I am glad that Lammy has been made foreign secretary, I met him a few years ago at a march in London and I thought he was brilliant. He had a great ability to engage with the crowd. It is also nice that two of the cabinet members are now ordinary people from Greater Manchester and not usual toff's we have known for the past 14 years.

 

[DarloRich]

My MP's been appointed Home Secretary, not a much of as surprise though.

excellent - she will make a fine home secretary

 

[SuspectUsual]

I do hope the Speaker and the new deputies are firm with how they deal with Reform. With 4/650ths of the seats, we shouldn't hear much from them. However I fear that won't be the case

 

[Purple Train]

I do hope the Speaker and the new deputies are firm with how they deal with Reform. With 4/650ths of the seats, we shouldn't hear much from them. However I fear that won't be the case

5/650ths - Reform have won in Basildon South and East Thurrock.

 

[DerekC]

I do hope the Speaker and the new deputies are firm with how they deal with Reform. With 4/650ths of the seats, we shouldn't hear much from them. However I fear that won't be the case

I reckon that they will work on getting one of their number ejected from the chamber every week, just to keep the headlines turning over and get some social media video clip opportunities.

 

[DarloRich]

With 5 MPs I believe Reform are entitled to lay a wreath at the cenotaph on remembrance Sunday.

I present that simply as information.

 

[Royston Vasey]

Not as fragile as people are thinking IMHO. It's a very complex picture this time with all sorts of factors at play.

- Tactical voting was a big influence this time, hence the huge Lib Dem gains where Labour didn't really fight the seats (e.g. S Cambs where I live).

- Low overall turnout and voter disillusion. I hope that the tarring them all with the same brush factor "they're all useless" will subside if Labour prove effective and positive.

- Split protest votes. In 1997 a traditional Conservative leaning voter had less choice - Lab or Lib and no radical right wing populists. No UKIP and the BNP were too far. This time those protest votes were spread more.

- Reform taking many of the protest votes from traditional Labour voters, particularly in the North East and other forgotten coastal towns.

- Selective focus by Labour on marginals and some long shots. They pulled a blinder strategically in just getting over the line in many constituencies even with big swings. Doing just enough.


I think Labour need now to show 5 years of competent, responsible and effective government (won't that make a change) and I think they'll get back a lot of share from Reform. Tactical voting won't be as strong next time and I think a lot more natural Labour voters will vote Labour, if they prove competent.


Louise Haigh Transport Secretary. Interesting to see her plan for GBR and renationalisation.

 

[Purple Train]

- Split protest votes. In 1997 a traditional Conservative leaning voter had less choice - Lab or Lib and no radical right wing populists. No UKIP and the BNP were too far. This time those protest votes were spread more.

Pedantic point - 1997 had the Referendum Party, who had a much smaller effect than Reform but nevertheless split the vote in seats like Camborne (the seat of Sebastian Coe), unless, by "traditional Conservative leaning voter", you mean a Euro-enthusiast.

 

[SuspectUsual]

5/650ths - Reform have won in Basildon South and East Thurrock.

Ah right, fair enough. I made it to about 5:45 this morning but then it all went a bit hazy and I've not had the telly on since

 

[Purple Train]

Ah right, fair enough. I made it to about 5:45 this morning but then it all went a bit hazy and I've not had the telly on since

They gained it about a minute before I posted, so you can be forgiven

 

[Royston Vasey]

Pedantic point - 1997 had the Referendum Party, who had a much smaller effect than Reform but nevertheless split the vote in seats like Camborne (the seat of Sebastian Coe), unless, by "traditional Conservative leaning voter", you mean a Euro-enthusiast.

No you're right in my meaning.

The profile of smaller parties was much lower then as you say, and in a pre-social media world and before we had this horrible toxic polarised political landscape when people just get entrenched and start to just hate and pour scorn on each other. These sort of protest votes were far less coherent, organised and publicised.

It was more a typical middle class "Mondeo Man" as they called it then, or elderly couple, watching the main PPBs and choosing a different box to cross in the booth in an isolated way, rather than being bombarded with sponsored content, viral posts and concerted "how to get them out where you live" websites etc.

 

[Kaliwax]

Liz Kendall DWP Secretary, hope she isn't as bad or as evil as the previous people in this role

 

[takno]

Liz Kendall DWP Secretary, hope she isn't as bad or as evil as the previous people in this role

Hmm, she wouldn't perhaps have been my choice after her 2015 leadership bid. Don't think she's got much chance of being nearly as outright vicious as recent incumbents though.

 

[brad465]

I think Labour need now to show 5 years of competent, responsible and effective government (won't that make a change) and I think they'll get back a lot of share from Reform. Tactical voting won't be as strong next time and I think a lot more natural Labour voters will vote Labour, if they prove competent.

Something else that might also help Labour come the next election is Gaza is less likely to be an issue, so all those independents who won in areas where it is a relative issue (even though their election won't make an iota of difference to the situation) are likely to return Labour, giving them a bit of cushion for other losses. I remain of the belief though that a number of these independents won't last the parliament, as I can see them having skeletons in their closets and/or doing something that leads to a long enough suspension to get recalled from parliament.

 

[nw1]

What of the tiny majority of 15 for Labour in Hendon? (mentioned by @DynamicSpirit above)

It looks like it was a typical bellweather seat and the Tories never held it with a huge majority since 2010. With the incumbent (Matthew Offord) standing down, hence no incumbent effect, wonder what the explanation for Labour only just gaining it is?

Have to admit I am unaware of any specific local issues which might affect Hendon other than ULEZ. Guessing it's something to do with this.

 

[Kaliwax]

Hmm, she wouldn't perhaps have been my choice after her 2015 leadership bid. Don't think she's got much chance of being nearly as outright vicious as recent incumbents though.

Only positive thing Ive seen is if a job doesn't work out for the disabled then they wont get punished when they go back on to benefits.

The employment programs, need to be scrapped or changed, as they don't work for the disabled, instead of using Reed in Partnership, where they get bonuses for shoving people to work, local disability charities should be running the schemes, with specifically trained disability advisors, and these programs need to be long term, not just 1 year or 2, and needs to link in with mental health services, social care, NHS, etc

 

[nw1]

Gillian Keegan gone. Tragedy...

Not even close. Huge majority for the Lib Dems.

And I had this probably down as a narrow Con hold!

 

[Gloster]

One point of interest is that a lot of the cabinet are doing the job that they were shadowing, which means that they can go straight in and get on with things, rather than having to learn the ropes in a new ministry, which has often been the case in the past. This suggests that Starmer considers himself safe and doesn’t feel the need to shift people around to keep them on the hop and stop them plotting. I wonder if he was advised about this by the Cabinet Secretary as Sir Arnold did when Hacker‘s party won in the first Yes, Minister: suggesting that it might be a good idea to move him (Hacker) as he was getting in a rut in his shadow position at Agriculture, i.e. he was beginning to see through the civil service’s tricks.

 

[Busaholic]

In retrospect the real Portillo movement came in daylight hours today with Liz Truss, who was at her most diva-ish, keeping her fellow candidates waiting a considerable time because of her late arrival for the result, then flounced out without warning mid-interview with a local BBC reporter. She is a female George Galloway, which is the worst insult I can throw at her. She really needs a long, long session of psychoanalysis, not that she'd accept she needed it. Probably spitting that her mate Coffey got awarded a damehood for outstanding services to herself, and she didn't.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

excellent - she will make a fine home secretary

So did hubby Ed Balls make the right call when he left politics after defeat in 2015?
He could have been Chancellor now if he had stayed in politics.

All quiet on the Portillo front too, 27 years on from his defenestration.

 

[Kaliwax]

In retrospect the real Portillo movement came in daylight hours today with Liz Truss, who was at her most diva-ish, keeping her fellow candidates waiting a considerable time because of her late arrival for the result, then flounced out without warning mid-interview with a local BBC reporter. She is a female George Galloway, which is the worst insult I can throw at her. She really needs a long, long session of psychoanalysis, not that she'd accept she needed it. Probably spitting that her mate Coffey got awarded a damehood for outstanding services to herself, and she didn't.

Coffey got outstanding services for what? What a disgrace. She and her cronies at the DWP are responsible for a lot of suicides, because of the inhumane and disgusting decisions made by that lot and then she had the cheek to try and cover it up. If it was up to me, she'd be in prison.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jul 2024 ==

So did hubby Ed Balls make the right call when he left politics after defeat in 2015?
He could have been Chancellor now if he had stayed in politics.

All quiet on the Portillo front too, 27 years on from his defenestration.

Balls was the previous MP of mine before Cooper in my area, as the constituency bounds changed in 2010 and my area got merged into Coopers.

 

[takno]

So did hubby Ed Balls make the right call when he left politics after defeat in 2015?
He could have been Chancellor now if he had stayed in politics.

All quiet on the Portillo front too, 27 years on from his defenestration.

I think he made the right call for politics. His problem as shadow chancellor was always that he was simultaneously too nice to come across as a dull reliable economist, and too much of control-freak over spending to let left-wingers feel comfortable. He seems like a nice enough man, but I think he was instrumental in the 2015 defeat.

 

[Cross City]

I am a bit disappointed with how the results panned out. It is great that Labour got such a huge vote majority with but with such a small vote share it is so fragile.

No it isn’t, the whole discourse has been to vote tactically, but now people have actually done it it’s somehow bad for Labour.

They have won a monumental landslide despite the electorate having 5 or 6 credible choices on their ballots.

 

[Sorcerer]

So quite a few surprises with this election, perhaps the biggest one for me being Labour's victory in Chelsea and Fulham. Awful night for the Conservatives and SNP, and on a personal note the Independents were kind of annoying but not really a big deal. But on the downside, it really exposed the issues with our electoral system more than ever. Just a 1% increase in the vote for Labour took them from a 1935 level defeat to 2001 level victory.

Plus, even though I'm glad to see the back of the Tories, and as much as I despise Farage and his band of grifters, it doesn't sit right with me that the third largest party in vote shares had only 1% of the seats while the Lib Dems won 71. To be fair though at least their vote share almost matches their share of seats along with the smaller parties. All things considered at least Keir Starmer was smart enough to play the game correctly with his target areas.

But nevertheless, this isn't a result I can't say I'm content with. After fourteen years of Conservative rule I'm cautiously optimistic that we can move in a more boring and stable direction with actual adults in charge and not privileged old money schoolboys who either had no sense of honour, respect and dignity or whose idea of struggle is not having Sky TV as a child.

 

[Thirteen]

Something else that might also help Labour come the next election is Gaza is less likely to be an issue, so all those independents who won in areas where it is a relative issue (even though their election won't make an iota of difference to the situation) are likely to return Labour, giving them a bit of cushion for other losses. I remain of the belief though that a number of these independents won't last the parliament, as I can see them having skeletons in their closets and/or doing something that leads to a long enough suspension to get recalled from parliament.

Anyone who's an independent MP voted solely on Gaza is going to find being a MP is hard work I would bet we'll see a few by elections within a couple of years.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jul 2024 ==

So quite a few surprises with this election, perhaps the biggest one for me being Labour's victory in Chelsea and Fulham.

Losing the safe Two Cities must really sting as well. It's similar to the Mayoral election, Outer London is a mix of Tory and Lib Dems and it's the well heeled areas such as Wimbledon which flipped to Lib Dem.

IDS winning is due to the vote being split by independence and Labour. I do think he'll hang on and then retire in 2029.

Reform can't seem to crack London at all, they did badly in the Mayoral Election as well.

 

[Sorcerer]

Losing the safe Two Cities must really sting as well. It's similar to the Mayoral election, Outer London is a mix of Tory and Lib Dems and it's the well heeled areas such as Richmond and Wimbledon which flipped to Lib Dem.

IDS winning is due to the vote being split by independence and Labour. I do think he'll hang on and then retire in 2029.

Reform can't seem to crack London at all, they did badly in the Mayoral Election as well.

IDS came across as really smug to me when he talked about this being another occasion where he held on to a seat he was projected to lose. I'm just glad he won't be near any position of power. But Reform was never going to make gains in London. Cosmopolitan cities aren't really the base for a populist party that is more catered to English seaside towns like Clacton and empowers, to put it lightly, divisive individuals who are practically running on a single issue.

 

[Arglwydd Golau]

Anyone who's an independent MP voted solely on Gaza is going to find being a MP is hard work I would bet we'll see a few by elections within a couple of years.

To be fair, UK has a history of single issue MP's....think Martin Bell (in Tatton) and the Doctor in Kidderminster (name escapes me) in recent times....just a handful more this election!

 

[ainsworth74]

IDS came across as really smug to me when he talked about this being another occasion where he held on to a seat he was projected to lose.

That's probably the one seat where I was properly frustrated with Labour HQs approach. It was clearly such a stupid idea to deselect the candidate that close to the election. If they'd backed her she'd clearly have won that seat instead IDS sneaks home again.

 

[WelshBluebird]

It's worth noting that the reform vote isn't that much different to the UKIP vote in 2015.a couple of percent more of the vote share, a couple of more MPs but 2nd place in a lot fewer constituencies and if you add Reform and Tories together you get less than the UKIP / Tory combination from 2015. So maybe it isn't that much of a change / shock, just the "new" norm?