UK General Election 2024: The Results & Aftermath

[InkyScrolls]

Fantastic to see the (hopefully long term) fall of the SNP!

 

[DarloRich]

Yes, exactly this. Reform only got the votes they did because (a) they were seen as an alternative to the Tories (a protest vote if you like), and (b) the Tories were so incredibly unpopular. However, there was incredibly little light shone on what Reform actually stood for, since Farage only jumped on his own bandwagon four weeks before the election.

Now they have four MPs the light will be upon them and will probably reveal them for what they are i.e. a bunch of chancers with shoddy and un-costed policies and a more than slight dose of racism and bigotry thrown in.

i agree - they will have to be open and transparent about their donors and have their policy scrutinised in much more detail! I am sure Farage will be pleased to have retained his seat on question time west.

Perhaps the media will give the Greens, who have 4 seats like Reform, a similar platform.

 

[skyhigh]

There's history, antagonism and egos to contend with, but one lesson from the election (which the government lost - it wasn't a huge endorsement of Labour - is that in a couple of years, the right wing parties of Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform UK ought consider merging, or if that's impossible, striking a formal Coalition agreement. Not suggesting this is easy.

This is what in Queensland, Australia, the Liberals (conservatives) and Nationals (historically rural-based as the Country Party) did. Although my nation has vastly different preferential voting to your FPTP, Federally as well as in some states, being united has been seen as maximising the utility of the non-Labor (our spelling) vote.

NZ has a three party Coalition government not long elected. But again, a vastly different electoral system to the UK (and Australia).

It's hard to see Mr Farage's Reform party winning on its own.

Labour/Labor is the enemy, and a formidable one.

You clearly don't understand UK politics.

 

[507021]

As a Labour Party member, today is a great day, but we've got an awful lot of hard work to do over the next five years. That begins today.

 

[Thirteen]

Jeremy Hunt will almost certainly try and become party leader IMO it's a surprise he kept his seat.

 

[Geezertronic]

Today is a great day. Labour have won a massive landslide. However, the hard work starts now. it isn't the same as 1997. It is graft everyday from now. Labour have to be perfect everyday or the Tory press will attack them in a way they wont when the Tory's mess up. There is no honeymoon to be had. it is an extraordinary victory but means nothing without delivery, improvement and change. However, things can only get better!

With only a 1.7% increase of the vote based on the 2019 election, it would be safe to say that the Labour popularity has not increased significantly to warrant the landslide, rather that the Conservative vote has been decimated and spread out between others, not necessarily to Labour (as Yardley showed as an example) - there is plenty of work for Labour to do

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

As a Conservative supporter, I'm not surprised at the hammering they have received in the election. The combination of scandal, division and chaos from Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss made it unwinnable for them.

im afraid a total lack of humility and integrity from any of them for their failings really upset loyal Tory voters who stayed away

However, I do take some comfort from that a quite a few of the hard right MPs have list their seats, so hopefully, the part can refocus on becoming center-right and rebuild.

[Ducks back behind the parapet]

I hope not the Tory party need to implode and reincarnate themselves as one nation tory grouping and the rest can fuse themselves with reform then we might get a half decent centrist party which people can get behind.

 

[InkyScrolls]

From the BBC (link):

Alex Salmond, who preceded Ms Sturgeon as SNP leader and first minister, said the "slaughter of the SNP" was not due to its support for Scottish independence.

He added: "How could it be? The SNP did not even campaign on it."

I find that rather hilarious and more than a little disingenuous. The SNP are widely known for caring about only one thing, Scottish independence, which any sane person realises would be a massive case of Scotland shooting itself in the foot. To claim that that stance had nothing to do with their defeat last night is, simply put, nonsense.

 

[jfollows]

Jeremy Hunt will almost certainly try and become party leader IMO it's a surprise he kept his seat.

In my opinion he would be the best leader out of the likely candidates to rebuild the party as a sane and electable one, but he won't get the job even if he makes the cut to be one of the two choices given to the membership (assuming the system is similar to last time). The membership will go for whoever stands against him, which will condemn the party to being out of power for longer than otherwise.

But I say that as a former middle-of-the-road Conservative, and we're out of fashion at the moment.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

In my opinion he would be the best leader out of the likely candidates to rebuild the party as a sane and electable one, but he won't get the job even if he makes the cut to be one of the two choices given to the membership (assuming the system is similar to last time). The membership will go for whoever stands against him, which will condemn the party to being out of power for longer than otherwise.

But I say that as a former middle-of-the-road Conservative, and we're out of fashion at the moment.

Its a futile to rebuild the party it needs to force a split into one nation grouping and a right wing grouping otherwise the wounds will never heal and more importantly the country wont have an electable centrist party that has a chance of a majority.

 

[Mojo]

Jeremy Hunt will almost certainly try and become party leader IMO it's a surprise he kept his seat.

lf Hunt becomes leader then all it will show is that the party hasn’t learned its lesson as to why they lost.

 

[DarloRich]

With only a 1.7% increase of the vote based on the 2019 election, it would be safe to say that the Labour popularity has not increased significantly to warrant the landslide, rather that the Conservative vote has been decimated and spread out between others, not necessarily to Labour (as Yardley showed as an example) - there is plenty of work for Labour to do

the Tories are saying the Labour majority is " a mile wide and an inch deep" and i agree. In the north east seats i know there was a large swing to Reform. There hard work starts now.

 

[richa2002]

Today is a great day. Labour have won a massive landslide. However, the hard work starts now. it isn't the same as 1997. It is graft everyday from now. Labour have to be perfect everyday or the Tory press will attack them in a way they wont when the Tory's mess up. There is no honeymoon to be had. it is an extraordinary victory but means nothing without delivery, improvement and change. However, things can only get better!

As an aside i wonder if there are people in certain constituencies waking up regretting that vote for the greens or lib dems that led to a Tory keeping their seat?

I don't get this idea of the "Tory press". All I see is an establishment press. Both the Tories and Labour are establishment and parties that will essentially keep the status quo. The press are far more anti-establishment so parties like Reform are their target, not Labour.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 5 Jul 2024 ==

i agree - they will have to be open and transparent about their donors and have their policy scrutinised in much more detail! I am sure Farage will be pleased to have retained his seat on question time west.

Perhaps the media will give the Greens, who have 4 seats like Reform, a similar platform.

I always enjoy this idea that once people know who Reform/Farage really are, they will think twice. Can people such as yourself simply not believe that some people want lower immigration, lower taxes, more freedom/democracy and repeal of the equality act which has fuelled so much of the divisive DEI agenda? Just to name a few things that no other party offers.

Why do you think the likes of Labour are so much better than the Tories too? Much like the Tories, their MPs can barely string coherant sentences together and come out with robotic illogical statements. What do they actually stand for apart from not being the Tories? The country will still be heading down the toilet in 5 years time. They are the establishment status quo.

Regarding your second point, same amount of seats but fewer than half the votes. Depends how you wish to rate the significance of a party.

 

[Kaliwax]

Who would be the best person to become the new Tory Leader, would it be someone who's quite moderate and James Cleverly or Tom Tugendhat, who I think are more of the one nation tories? Or would it be someone like Suella Braverman? If Suella or someone on the right would be the leader of the Tories, what would be the difference between them and Reform?

 

[Thirteen]

The SNP losing badly in the election does make me wonder if they're doomed in the Scottish Parliament elections. Could see Labour gaining power there.

 

[brad465]

Jeremy Hunt will almost certainly try and become party leader IMO it's a surprise he kept his seat.

He really fought for it in the end, apparently he personally funded his campaign somewhat and he also had to do a lot of local work, rather than support the national campaign.

 

[iij]

In my opinion he would be the best leader out of the likely candidates to rebuild the party as a sane and electable one, but he won't get the job even if he makes the cut to be one of the two choices given to the membership (assuming the system is similar to last time). The membership will go for whoever stands against him, which will condemn the party to being out of power for longer than otherwise.

But I say that as a former middle-of-the-road Conservative, and we're out of fashion at the moment.

Jeremy Hunt's wife works for the Chinese Communist Party. It would be dangerous to continue to allow Hunt to assume senior positions.

 

[edwin_m]

So, did Labour win the election, or did Reform and Apathy lose it for the conservstives?

I’m looking forward to some analysis which shows what would have happened if all Reform votes had been made for the conservatives instead.

That analysis only makes sense if you presume that Reform have taken votes almost exclusively from the Conservatives - and I don't believe that for a moment. From what I saw of poll trends, it seemed to me that when the Reform vote rose in the opinion polls, Labour and Tories tended to fall equally. My impression is that Reform voters tend to be pro-Brexit people who now hate the Tories but don't trust Labour/want something totally different. I reckon at least something like 40% of those people would break for Labour if Reform didn't exist.

There's also the factor that any move by the Conservatives towards Reform policies loses them votes to the LibDems or Labour. Perhaps not so much this time because most of those swing voters had probably given up on the Tories already, but it does highlight that it's simplistic just to add the two figures together and say they would have won if united.

In Northern Ireland Jim Allister has ended 54 years of the Paisley dynasty sitting in parliament and taken North Antrim from the DUP. He stood as a candidate TUV-ReformUK alliance (with TUV - No Sea Border on the ballot papers but equal prominence to TUV and ReformUK on publicity.)

Elsewhere in NI, an independent has won in North Down. Arlene Foster said on GBNews this morning he would also sit with Reform but cannot see this mentioned anywhere else other than the fact that TUV supported him for the seat and didn’t stand a candidate of their own.

They'll be supporting Rejoin then...

In my opinion he [Hunt] would be the best leader out of the likely candidates to rebuild the party as a sane and electable one, but he won't get the job even if he makes the cut to be one of the two choices given to the membership (assuming the system is similar to last time). The membership will go for whoever stands against him, which will condemn the party to being out of power for longer than otherwise.

The fragility of his majority is another factor that counts against him.

 

[507021]

It's official, Keir Starmer is now the Prime Minister. It's the first time all but the eldest of my daughters have seen a Labour premier, albeit she was only a month old when we were voted out of office. She's now 14 and a member of the Labour Party.

 

[DarloRich]

Only the 4th person to win an election for labour from opposition: Atlee, Wilson, Blair, Starmer!

 

[jfollows]

Starmer is also the first PM since Blair to lead a party that won the election in England, Scotland and Wales (as in, if you were to look at the results separately in each country).

 

[Thirteen]

I wonder if much like 2019, Hunt will want a few years as a backbencher with maybe a hand in select committees.

 

[GusB]

I always enjoy this idea that once people know who Reform/Farage really are, they will think twice. Can people such as yourself simply not believe that some people want lower immigration, lower taxes, more freedom/democracy and repeal of the equality act which has fuelled so much of the divisive DEI agenda? Just to name a few things that no other party offers.

It's easy enough to be taken in by a party's policies at the outset, then change your mind once you take a deeper look. Despite Reform's claims that they were vetting candidates, it didn't take long for the nasty element to rear its ugly head. Comments about the PM being a p*** and using migrants for target practice is not a good look.

As for repealing the equality act, clearly you're lucky enough not to have suffered discrimination because you happen to be a bit different from everyone else. Or maybe you're one of those people who cry because they're white, male and heterosexual and aren't getting as much attention as they think they deserve.

 

[david1212]

Exit Poll:
Lab 410
Con 131
LD 61
Ref 13
SNP 10
PC 4
Grn 2

With just South Basildon and East Thurrock and Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire to declare overall close. Relatively the biggest error Reform predicted as 13 but only 4.

I'm afraid a total lack of humility and integrity from any of them for their failings really upset loyal Tory voters who stayed away

But I say that as a former middle-of-the-road Conservative, and we're out of fashion at the moment.

These two statements sum up the loss of 250 seats. Once they have licked their wounds they need reasons why to sink in and how they have to change before the next general election to even gain a significant number of seats never mind the majority.

 

[DoubleLemon]

Attached from Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/graphics/BRITAIN-ELECTION/RESULTS/lbvgllknbpq/) showing vote share.
2019 Conservative 43.6% - Other 8.4%
2024 Conservative 23.7% - Other 27.3%
All other parties not significantly changed.

1997 Labour 43.2%
2024 Labour 33.8%

The way our systems works translates this into a Labour "landslide" but it isn't really, or at least it only is in terms of numbers of seats, which is of course important. But it does not indicate a "seismic" change if the Conservatives can get their act together. I predict they won't for quite a while to come, though.
View attachment 161297

As much as I am very happy to see labour win. This highlights the issue with FPTTP, The country is ruled by a party who do not have a majority of the people voting for them.

 

[jfollows]

The fragility of his majority is another factor that counts against him.

I don't agree one bit, his relatively small majority today represents a low point under unusual circumstances and will be replaced with a healthy "business as usual" majority in future elections.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I've seen enough general elections to know that the day after the election, or possibly up to the weekend following, is the only time that politicians are at all candid about their defeat and performance in government (if they lost), or the prospects for the future (if they won).
Once a new cabinet is formed, and the whips have got organised, it all descends into being "on message".
As Private Willis says in Iolanthe (1882):
"When in that House MPs divide, if they've a brain and cerebellum, too,
They've got to leave that brain outside, and vote just as their leaders tell 'em to."

The main difference back then is that you were either a Liberal or Conservative - there was no Labour.

 

[Purple Train]

the Tories are saying the Labour majority is " a mile wide and an inch deep" and i agree. In the north east seats i know there was a large swing to Reform. There hard work starts now.

Absolutely. Hopefully having to actually do some work will mean that Reform fall off a cliff, but the thinness of even some of the "safe" Labour majorities is definitely cause for concern there.

What Labour may be able to take comfort from is that their main opposition in many constituencies almost certainly won't be standing at the next election.

 

[D1537]

I always enjoy this idea that once people know who Reform/Farage really are, they will think twice. Can people such as yourself simply not believe that some people want lower immigration, lower taxes, more freedom/democracy and repeal of the equality act which has fuelled so much of the divisive DEI agenda? Just to name a few things that no other party offers.

Yes, lots of people want those things. The sort of people who believe "equality" is not a good thing, clearly. We have a word for such people.

The point is, however, is that Reform have claimed they can do all of these things, but have not given any idea as to how they would actually be funded except for vague waves. In future elections they will really have to explain how they're going to do it, since they will be seen as a threat by the other parties - if they can't, they're limited to just being a protest vote.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Probably not wise to crow too much. The SNP got just as big a spanking as the Tories. Which is just as funny and just as deserved.

Totally well deserved and it's going to be such fun watching the SNP and its many supporters not admitting defeat or losing badly and trying ever so ever so ever so hard not to gloat for the next while