TSGN could be split up, in 2021.

[felixthebadger]

Of course a lot can happen in 3 years!

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...e-broken-up-govia-thameslink-railway-southern

Britain’s biggest rail franchise, which includes the strike-hit Southern service, is likely to be broken up when it expires in 2021, the government has said.

Campaigners have called for its breakup, while Transport for London have had attempts to take over metropolitan routes rebuffed by the government.

The Department for Transport said it was “actively looking at the shape and size of the next Thameslink, Southern and Great Northern (TSGN) franchise on expiry of the existing contract in 2021.”

 

[pdeaves]

I was under the impression that it was always the intention, once the current TSGN contract expired, to separate the parts out again (hence one reason why they still run as if different companies).

 

[physics34]

yeh its an odd report as this was always the plan anyway. Its a shame it couldnt be split and refranchised in 2019 as the Southern name is damaged and its clear fresh blood could come in earlier than 2021.

 

[felixthebadger]

I was under the impression that it was always the intention, once the current TSGN contract expired, to separate the parts out again (hence one reason why they still run as if different companies).

Which raises the question, why was a mega franchise formed in the first place?

 

[Jonny]

Which raises the question, why was a mega franchise formed in the first place?

Because of the interworking through the Thameslink core?

 

[takno]

Which raises the question, why was a mega franchise formed in the first place?

It was felt that a single company would be more likely to get the timetable and organizational changes through which were necessary for rolling out the full Thameslink service

 

[SPADTrap]

To break the Unions..

 

[TheDavibob]

I was under the impression that it was always the intention, once the current TSGN contract expired, to separate the parts out again (hence one reason why they still run as if different companies).

Clearly TGN and Southern can be disentangled, but I find it slightly interesting how little of Great Northern will exist come the culmination of the Thameslink programme, being reduced to the Cambridge fast with Kings Lynn extension and peak time extras to Peterborough and Cambridge, and a self-contained metro route. I assume therefore GN is likely to be permanently stuck to the Thameslink franchise? [Especially as, if there were any political will, the Northern City Line is one TfL would be all over]

 

[jopsuk]

Because it is easier to transfer routes/services within the franchise (i know some are involving South Eastern, but most aren't) and then re-carve it up afterwards- I'd assume that such a restructure will mean all 700 services being Thameslink, with Southern the remainder south of the Thames and Great Northern the remainder to the North. Of course TfL are likely to push again for the Moorgate service (by then 717 operated) to be transferred to them, and possibly the Southern Metro too, but that's dependent upon the attitude of the political leadership at the DfT. It would leave Great Northern as a very small franchise, running nothing but a half hourly Cambridge Express (through to King's Lynn) plus peak time extras to and from Peterborough, Royston etc. (Cue recurrent idea that they should be East Coast Mainline franchise services).

If (big if) the Southern AND Southeastern metro routes were taken over by TfL, should the remaining Southern and Southeastern routes be merged into a single franchise?

 

[telstarbox]

It would leave Great Northern as a very small franchise, running nothing but a half hourly Cambridge Express (through to King's Lynn) plus peak time extras to and from Peterborough, Royston etc. (Cue recurrent idea that they should be East Coast Mainline franchise services).

Or just merge it into Greater Anglia given the overlap?

 

[Sunset route]

As what said above the TS&GN magament contract was just the means to the end to create the “New expanded” Thameslink routes, from the constituent parts of the South Central franchise aka Southern (including those parts now dropped for additional Kent routes instead) as well as the constituent parts of the Great Northern and Thameslink routes that were part of the previous FCC franchise. Which means the new bigger Thameslink goes on its way, south central has a reduced network (well services).

South central could go it alone if the rest is untouched. Great Northern will virtually non existent apart from the Cambridge/Kings Lynn expresses (move to intercity east coast) and the Moorgate inners (move to TfL) makes the most sense to me. If you take the Southern metro away from the south central franchise post TS&GN and give it to TfL, then you might as well merge South Central & South Eastern mainline services together and also transfer South Eastern metro to TfL as well.

 

[Roast Veg]

I never really understood why the South Central was included into Thameslink and Great Northern when it was happening, but to be honest in the run up to the introduction of the 700s the ability to run 377s/(GX)387s through the core willy-nilly did offer something of an advantage. Now that the 700s are operating exclusively in the core there's far less of a justification to include the SC in the franchise, when SC is comparable in complexity to the South Eastern.

 

[Sunset route]

I never really understood why the South Central was included into Thameslink and Great Northern when it was happening, but to be honest in the run up to the introduction of the 700s the ability to run 377s/(GX)387s through the core willy-nilly did offer something of an advantage. Now that the 700s are operating exclusively in the core there's far less of a justification to include the SC in the franchise, when SC is comparable in complexity to the South Eastern.

As far as I understand it the ball is now going to be on the other foot and instead of the Southern brand lending units to the Thameslink brand it’s going to be the other way round for the next few months as the cl700s start to appear on the Horsham workings and as the diagrams are interworkd for both London Bridge and London Victoria there will be cl700s wo king some Southern services to Victoria in the short term (unless the plans have moved on again). So we are still not at the stage where you can separate South Central from Great Northern/Thameslink yet.

 

[WatcherZero]

The splits been planned since 2014, the super franchise was due to the engineering and reorganisation taking place over the period.

 

[Skimble19]

It’s a tad ironic really considering more and more systems, processes, departments and locations etc. are being integrated between all four brands as time goes on. It will now be a great mess to untangle it all in 2021....

 

[IanXC]

If the Moorgate route and the 717 units were transferred to TfL, I'd suggest the rump non Thameslink operation on the EMCL would be best transferred to the Intercity East Coast franchise holder. I suspect that this is too much like the old SRA ideas to happen now!

 

[PR1Berske]

To break the Unions..

Hardly.

 

[Hadders]

As I understand it the intention was always to split the franchise once the Thameslink works were complete.

The Thameslink Great Northern franchise was created in 2006 in preparation for the Thameslink programme (which was subsequently delayed). The franchise was branded 'First Capital Connect' and common branding was used across both Thameslink and Great Northern routes.

In 2014 Govia won the franchise and decided to brand the two routes as 'Thameslink' and 'Great Northern'. Southern (and Gatwick Express branded services) were added in 2015.

My guess is that the franchise will be split into 'Thameslink' which will be all services that run through the core plus the Great Northern branded services out Kings Cross and Moorgate. A new Southern franchise will operate the rest south of the river.

In other words back to how it was in 2006...

 

[Sunset route]

As I understand it the intention was always to split the franchise once the Thameslink works were complete.

The Thameslink Great Northern franchise was created in 2006 in preparation for the Thameslink programme (which was subsequently delayed). The franchise was branded 'First Capital Connect' and common branding was used across both Thameslink and Great Northern routes.

In 2014 Govia won the franchise and decided to brand the two routes as 'Thameslink' and 'Great Northern'. Southern (and Gatwick Express branded services) were added in 2015.

My guess is that the franchise will be split into 'Thameslink' which will be all services that run through the core plus the Great Northern branded services out Kings Cross and Moorgate. A new Southern franchise will operate the rest south of the river.

In other words back to how it was in 2006...

I totally agree, unless the dft & TfL start getting funny ideas about carving things up more for their respective agendas.

 

[Stow]

If the Moorgate route and the 717 units were transferred to TfL, I'd suggest the rump non Thameslink operation on the EMCL would be best transferred to the Intercity East Coast franchise holder. I suspect that this is too much like the old SRA ideas to happen now!

The rump of GN is operated by 46 4-car units (Wikipedia shows 45 sets on ICEC), not sure of mileage’s or number of services for hand, but probably as many if not more than ICEC. Also would operate as many stations as ICEC do.

Easily big enough to operate as a stand alone franchise - 20% more vehicles than the original TPE franchise. (51x3 vs 46x4)

 

[Minstral25]

I see the problem in splitting up TSGN is not north of the river but south.

North to Bedford is exclusively Thameslink on the Commuter routes. Unless TfL grab the Moorgate routes these will be sharing stock type and depots with Thameslink (Hornsey) and hence should stay together. So you are left with a small rump of Kings Lynn (387's) and Peterborough peak services. I can't see (as someone using services from the South) that there is any benefit of hiving them off although Kings Lynn could fit with GA or even VTEC.

Going South Thameslink does not have a consistent mandate and thus becomes a disruptive force. Being "North" centric they won't worry too much about cutting services South of the River except where they have a monopoly like Wimbledon loop and Catford services where they are dominant supplier.

Southern becomes a big issue. It effectively works as two franchises. First the Metro services in London and then the BML and Coast services. However much of the profitable London to Brighton traffic will be hived into Thameslinks south of river services, so passenger numbers and more importantly revenue will be paid into Thameslink. (Watch the BML passengers leave Southern's Victoria services once they realise they can change for Crossrail at Farringdon)

So giving Metro to TfL which works very well in political (party dependant) and running terms leaves an unprofitable rump of coastal and low fund BML services. GatEx being a complication in the middle too as it is a waste of line capacity but creates extra revenue.

Routes like my local route at Redhill will be doubly bothered as there services will be run mainly by Thameslink but stations and ticketing by Southern - confusion will reign as it already does.

I don't have answers but I think splitting the Southern Network from TSGN will cause many more difficult questions than the Northern part of TSGN.

 

[High Dyke]

It was felt that a single company would be more likely to get the timetable and organizational changes through which were necessary for rolling out the full Thameslink service

Well that hasn't been achieved yet or properly - bearing in mind the Thameslink programme is nearly twenty years behind schedule.

To break the Unions..

They aren't doing a very good job of it.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

In the time since TSGN was formed, have any services been moved between the different "sub-franchises"?

 

[Sunset route]

In the time since TSGN was formed, have any services been moved between the different "sub-franchises"?

The Brighton expresses went from from Southern to Gatwick Expess a couple of years back and this winter TT change a few Horsham and Littlehampton services transfer between Southern and Thameslink as they wind up to the full Thameslink takeover of certain service groups.

 

[Sunset route]

I see the problem in splitting up TSGN is not north of the river but south.

North to Bedford is exclusively Thameslink on the Commuter routes. Unless TfL grab the Moorgate routes these will be sharing stock type and depots with Thameslink (Hornsey) and hence should stay together. So you are left with a small rump of Kings Lynn (387's) and Peterborough peak services. I can't see (as someone using services from the South) that there is any benefit of hiving them off although Kings Lynn could fit with GA or even VTEC.

Going South Thameslink does not have a consistent mandate and thus becomes a disruptive force. Being "North" centric they won't worry too much about cutting services South of the River except where they have a monopoly like Wimbledon loop and Catford services where they are dominant supplier.

Southern becomes a big issue. It effectively works as two franchises. First the Metro services in London and then the BML and Coast services. However much of the profitable London to Brighton traffic will be hived into Thameslinks south of river services, so passenger numbers and more importantly revenue will be paid into Thameslink. (Watch the BML passengers leave Southern's Victoria services once they realise they can change for Crossrail at Farringdon)

So giving Metro to TfL which works very well in political (party dependant) and running terms leaves an unprofitable rump of coastal and low fund BML services. GatEx being a complication in the middle too as it is a waste of line capacity but creates extra revenue.

Routes like my local route at Redhill will be doubly bothered as there services will be run mainly by Thameslink but stations and ticketing by Southern - confusion will reign as it already does.

I don't have answers but I think splitting the Southern Network from TSGN will cause many more difficult questions than the Northern part of TSGN.

If they pursue in splitting Southern mainline and southern metro routes, once they’ve untangled the rolling stock workings, then the natural home for southern mainline will be with Kent mainline if TfL grabs their suburban routes as well. (But Victoria, Brighton & South Coastway Railway has a nice ring to it, if it is to go it alone)

 

[Minstral25]

Well that hasn't been achieved yet or properly - bearing in mind the Thameslink programme is nearly twenty years behind schedule.

Thameslink 2000 was proposed in 1987 (and subsequent Years) and never given go-ahead - approval to build Thameslink Programme was give partially (KO0) in 2007 and the remainder (KO1/2) in 2010 (I don't have actual documents in front of me but I recall those were the dates). It was never approved to be build before then so cannot be 20 years late. In 2010 completion was expected in 2018 I believe was in the ministers announcement and the tunnels and stations should be ready more or less on time.

The Brighton expresses went from from Southern to Gatwick Expess a couple of years back and this winter TT change a few Horsham and Littlehampton services transfer between Southern and Thameslink as they wind up to the full Thameslink takeover of certain service groups.

All Horsham to London Bridge Services will be transferred in May 2018. That is after all Tonbridge/Reigate to London Bridge services were effectively transferred in 2015 to Thameslink as well. (also some Brighton to London Bridge services I think were transferred at this time as well)

Littlehampton and East Grinstead peak services are being transferred in May 2018 as well.

If they pursue in splitting Southern mainline and southern metro routes, once they’ve untangled the rolling stock workings, then the natural home for southern mainline will be with Kent mainline if TfL grabs their suburban routes as well. (But Victoria, Brighton & South Coastway Railway has a nice ring to it, if it is to go it alone)

Trouble is VB&SC will have very limited income, sharing with Thameslink and GatEx on the Brighton Main line and the rest very much rural services.

 

[Sunset route]

Tonbridge/Reigate to London Bridge services were effectively transferred in 2015 to Thameslink as well. (also some Brighton to London Bridge services I think were transferred at this time as well)


Littlehampton and East Grinstead peak services are being transferred in May 2018 as well.

Brighton to London Bridge were and still are a mix of Thameslink majority and Southern minority and will remain that way until the ReEastbourne services have their own dedicated stock again.

I can’t see how the Tonbridge/Reigate via Redhill can be described as a Thameslink serrvice just beacuse they were transferred from serving London Bridge to London Victoria?

2X Littlehampton’s from this timetable change.

 

[Minstral25]

B

I can’t see how the Tonbridge/Reigate via Redhill can be described as a Thameslink serrvice just beacuse they were transferred from serving London Bridge to London Victoria?
.

That's why I said "effectively" as it was quite a complicated change.

Tonbridge/Reigate to London Bridge stopping Southern services were replaced from Redhill to East Croydon by the Bedford to Gatwick Thameslink services, with the 4x per hour Southern service to London Bridge from Redhill, Merstham, and Coulsdon South being reduced to just 2 per hour (Horsham services) - as the Bedford went via Tulse Hill to Blackfriars

At the same time the Arun Valley Southern trains were withdrawn between Redhill and East Croydon and replaced by a brand new non-stopping Southern service from Reigate/Tonbridge to Victoria. Non-stopping between Redhill and East Croydon thus an entirely different service to the previous London Bridge service which called all stations to Purley.

Thus effectively the Tonbridge/Reigate to London Bridge Southern service was replaced by the Three Bridges to Bedford Thameslink service - which has been hardly used by local rail users due to the extended journey. Obviously that will change when it returns to the London Bridge route.

 

[Sunset route]

.

I’m quite aware of the stopping pattern changes, as I’m pretty sure I’m one of the people you probably curse a lot between East Croydon and Redhill for missed pathways and connections

 

[Minstral25]

I’m quite aware of the stopping pattern changes, as I’m pretty sure I’m one of the people you probably curse a lot between East Croydon and Redhill for missed pathways and connections

I doubt I do personally although if you are a resident of Coulsdon or Purley you can have my fury because of the loss of our Victoria fast services in May 18 caused because we have to now weirdly stop at your stations.

The point I was following on about was the earlier poster saying only a few services are being swapped but actually over a period of a few years its a lot higher than obvious at the next change, because services have been gradually swapping for some time.