I'm travelling from Manchester to Blackpool North with Transpennine Express sometime tomorrow afternoon.
Generally during the day TPE services are: (from Piccadilly)
xx46 departures are the Blackpools
xx16 departures are the Cumbria (or Cumbria/Scottish services)
1416 and 1616 departures off Piccadilly are 2x 185s (6car), which still should have a trolley in both sets. These are Cumbria/Scottish services which divide at Preston. Plenty room.
The 1546 Blackpool (1529 ex-Airport) is "game over" at Picc and if you don't get your seat at Picc - you don't get one. Anyone at Oxford Rd has no chance. First Class on this is declassified guaranteed to either Bolton/Lostock/Horwich (usually Horwich) but, as usual on this route, by the time the guard has announced this they're all taken by Standard Class passengers. Avoid !
Even the 1516 Barrow is full and standing almost daily (this didn't usually happen pre September)....."any 4-car 185s on order, please?"
All earlier xx46 departures should be OK. But they're always busy as 40% more people (at least) travel on the Preston route since 2004ish