TPL-Related Discussion

[Ivo]

Quick question .... Correct scores. I've managed to get 5 correct scores, not once, but twice this season (staill another round to go yet :P). What's the highest number of correct scores predicted in a round?

I know bb21 has had six before now (Season 2, Round 11), but I don't know if anyone has beaten this? He also claimed seven 3-pointers that time. Too bad the other seven games netted him a grand total of one point

If Fulham do win 2-1, I match that total of six. If they win and I get one of the other points available, I will have a total of nine 3-point scorelines. Otherwise, a win of any description would be a 14th correct result, which valenta achieved when he managed 56 points back in Season 1, and barring a freakishly low attendance in the same game a score of 60+.

Question

How do you predict your scores

predictor programe on PC or elsewhere
Actual studying of games with no aid from anywhere

I've made a predictor of my own on MS Excel, but I've only used it twice and both times were pretty mediocre (I also announced that I was using the system on those occasions). Otherwise, I go on instinct and/or study, although I do usually have the BBC league tables - which include a basic form guide - when deciding.

 

[SS4]

Question

How do you predict your scores

predictor programe on PC or elsewhere
Actual studying of games with no aid from anywhere

Personally I look at the last couple of weeks and guess. It's not worked out well so I might just use an RNG for next time

edit: I meant to use the random number generator for next time. At the moment I've made predictions on my own and rather badly too

 

[Ivo]

Personally I look at the last couple of weeks and guess. It's not worked out well so I might just use an RNG for next time

You can use my system if you're willing to pay

 

[newbie babs]

Random Number predictor not exactly "your predictions though"

I don`t use anything probably because I think if you use help then its not your own predictions so when I was at the top last season I did it all on my own with no help from anything or anyone. I think I achieved quite a bit then.

 

[Ivo]

Time to try out the RNG (within reason of course)

122008 Cardiff City 2v 2 Peterborough United (1500)

With a result like that, I think you're better off doing it yourself

Cardiff have won all ten of their home games, averaging more than two per game at the right end and only one every other game at the wrong end.

Peterborough have lost seven of their ten away games, scoring less than a goal per game, en route to scoring only seven points to date.

 

[valenta]

If Fulham do win 2-1, I match that total of six. If they win and I get one of the other points available, I will have a total of nine 3-point scorelines. Otherwise, a win of any description would be a 14th correct result, which valenta achieved when he managed 56 points back in Season 1, and barring a freakishly low attendance in the same game a score of 60+.

Never has it been more important to me that Newcastle don't lose 2 - 1!
I'll play it safe and take a win if Pardew and co will oblige!

 

[atomicdanny]

Never has it been more important to me that Newcastle don't lose 2 - 1!
I'll play it safe and take a win if Pardew and co will oblige!

Well unfortunately Newcastle Lost 2 - 1 !

 

[valenta]

Well unfortunately Newcastle Lost 2 - 1 !

Damn it!
Well done to Ivo though, a brilliant round, showing the form that I can never manage at this time of the season.

 

[Ivo]

Damn it!
Well done to Ivo though, a brilliant round, showing the form that I can never manage at this time of the season.

57 points - a new record, at an average of roughly four points for every seven available and managing 14 correct results, of which six were exact. Throw in a third attendance victory in four rounds (the other having been a 2nd), and, well, thank you

I know we've still got one round to go, but it'll take a disaster miracle for me to lose now.

 

[valenta]

57 points - a new record, at an average of roughly four points for every seven available and managing 14 correct results, of which six were exact. Throw in a third attendance victory in four rounds (the other having been a 2nd), and, well, thank you

I know we've still got one round to go, but it'll take a disaster miracle for me to lose now.

And modest aswell!

 

[Ivo]

This is very unlike me, I promise you. But the way the last few days have gone, modesty isn't really on the agenda at present

 

[gnolife]

I think Ivo and SS4 should be be given a 500 point deduction each. For Ivo, I'll suggest rampaging Voltorbs as a reason. For SS4, the reason can be because he's played two more rounds than me.

 

[bb21]

It is not over until the fat lady sings, knowing his inconsistency.

 

[gnolife]

It is not over until the fat lady sings, knowing his inconsistency.

My mother is already singing...

 

[bb21]

I know I am sometimes guilty too, however can I make a request that we keep the thread relatively tidy please from the next season onwards as it is getting rather cluttered. This is I believe causing a few issues when viewed on a mobile device.

 

[Ivo]

I know I am sometimes guilty too, however can I make a request that we keep the thread relatively tidy please from the next season onwards as it is getting rather cluttered. This is I believe causing a few issues when viewed on a mobile device.

In that case, can we have a discussion thread to go with it please? Players will notice that this very question is now in a thread whose purpose is exactly as requested This one can be used for its *original* purpose, i.e. predictions, and then the other one can be for discussion about TPL. Anything to do with rule changes, including consultations, could be included in this one.

It is not over until the fat lady sings, knowing his inconsistency.

Git I've entered every round this season, and I'm not failing now. I have my eye on the Average Prediction title too (tough but not impossible).

I think Ivo and SS4 should be be given a 500 point deduction each. For Ivo, I'll suggest rampaging Voltorbs as a reason. For SS4, the reason can be because he's played two more rounds than me.

Starmie are faster than Voltorb

 

[bb21]

In that case, can we have a discussion thread to go with it please? This one can be used for its *original* purpose, i.e. predictions, and then the other one can be for discussion about TPL. Anything to do with rule changes, including consultations, could be included in this one.

I will split the discussion later when i am in front of a computer.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I have trawled through the last 5/6 pages and separated out side discussions from the main competition. It would be appreciated if the main thread can be used for submitting entries only from now on.

 

[Ivo]

Good stuff - well done nice to see the suggestion was acted upon so quickly.

Now it's time to do my last submission of the season...

 

[andrew bell]

Just had a thought (not sure if this happens or not) but at the end of the season (not TPL, the proper season) can the highest 4 scores from both seasons go into a playoff to see the overall champion during the season?

 

[bb21]

A play-off can be considered at the end of the whole year as there will be play-off games left in the Football League, regardless of when the TPL seasons finish.

The problem is there are two tables, how do you aggregate the scores and decide the top four?

 

[Ivo]

A play-off can be considered at the end of the whole year as there will be play-off games left in the Football League, regardless of when the TPL seasons finish.

The problem is there are two tables, how do you aggregate the scores and decide the top four?

The best method in my opinion would be to use the Average Prediction tables, with players having to enter at least five rounds and appearing in the final table at the end of both seasons to have a chance. But this would ignore the "overall" table.

 

[andrew bell]

Correct me if I am wrong but each season has 20 rounds. At the end of both seasons you look back and see which 4 players (without duplicates) had the highest score and they go through to the final. An example table is below

Rank Participant Total Season 1 Total Season 2
---- ----------- --------
1► Ivo 718 645
2► David 674 699
3► bb21 658 711
4▲ MattE2010 654 650
5▼ valenta 649 604
6► andrew bell 642 679
7► atomicdanny 637 615
8► newbie babs 602 702
9► Greenback 500 579
10► SS4 497 679
11► gnolife 438 598
12► CallySleeper 165 679

From the following lists you look for the highest 4 scores (Ivo 718, bb21 711, newbie babs 702 and David 699) and those 4 players go through to predict the playoff scores. The tie breaker could be either who finished highest or most correct scores if scores are level to get into the playoffs.

Obviously if we do decide to have a playoff system we do have a few months to iron out the exact details, but this is what I am suggesting

 

[Ivo]

And in the event that someone dominates (as I intend to ) and has two of the top four? Do you then have to admit the 5th highest? If this was to spiral out of control you could potentially end up admitting the 7th highest scorer should the top six scores all come from the same three players.

 

[SS4]

You could just have the top four in the total league take part. Alternatively the top n players get through automatically and the top n-4 play for the n-1 place.

I've always understood the average points table to be below the level of the total points (this has nothing to do with my current showing in said table ).

 

[Ivo]

How about a scenario in which the Top Eight qualify, based on the two tables combined, with any player appearing twice receiving a bye to a Semi-Final stage? The first round of the competition would be a preliminary round, designed to reduce the number of finalists to four. See below.

• If there are four players in the Top Eight positions, no preliminary round is needed.
• If there are five players in the Top Eight positions, the two players who appear once stage a one-off round to determine the last semi-finalist.
• If there are six players in the Top Eight positions, the four players who appear once stage a one-off round to determine the third and fourth semi-finalists.
• If there are seven players in the Top Eight positions, the six players who appear once stage a one-off round to determine all semi-finalists besides the first.
• If there are eight players in the Top Eight positions, all players enter at the preliminary stage, which effectively becomes a Quarter Final round.

Seeding could be used in the preliminary round to determine who plays off against who; if Scenario Four (only one player is in the Top Four both times) happened for instance, then the top scorer of the six remaining values would play 4th, 2nd would play 5th, and 3rd would play 6th (or alternatively 1st vs 6th, 2nd vs 5th and 3rd vs 4th).

However, there is a flaw with this and any other plan that uses the Total Points table and not the Average Prediction table - winter postponements. To get around this problem, either allow precisely four from each season or otherwise divide the total points by the number of games played and use this new average result (instead of the usual Average).

 

[Donny Dave]

Hmm, a large swing in my favour is possible, although I am going to need an extra large slice of luck.

I've just made my predictions, then compared them to Ivo's .... Between us, we have predicted the same result or scorline in 11 of the 20 matches. We're also pretty close on the predicted attendance.

However, that leaves 9 matches where our predictions differ, which is a possible 45 points available .... Either to increase the gap still further and cement Ivo's position as champion, or for me to snatch the title out of nowhere....

 

[atomicdanny]

Looks like i won't have any chance of going up in the table now, missed the deadline by 40 minutes oh well I guess better luck next time for me :cry:

 

[Donny Dave]

Another good weekend for me, but still I'm not going to win the league.

By my crude calculations, I've scored 40 points from the 17 matches so far (Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday kicks off in about 10 minutes), but unfortunately, Ivo has managed 36 points.

I think everyone has lost points though after the Cardiff match ....

 

[SS4]

With a result like that, I think you're better off doing it yourself

Cardiff have won all ten of their home games, averaging more than two per game at the right end and only one every other game at the wrong end.

Peterborough have lost seven of their ten away games, scoring less than a goal per game, en route to scoring only seven points to date.

You were saying?

I was so close to five points though
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Not that I did particularly well

 

[gnolife]

You were saying?

I was so close to five points though
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Not that I did particularly well

You did better than me, who forgot about this until just after most matches started