I am far from convinced that there is space for:
- 2x Virgin Trains EC
- 1x CrossCountry
- 0.5x First East Coast
- 1x TPE
- 1x ScotRail Edinburgh - Berwick upon Tweed
- 1x ScotRail Edinburgh - North Berwick
- At least 1x Freight
Every hour.
I think I am correct in saying that the ScotRail Berwick upon Tweed and TPE services are the ones that don't have formal ORR approval?
I know that you are talking about the northern end but at the southern end, there's a path timed for a 75mph DMU on the fifteen miles from Newcastle to Morpeth (which needs to cross over the southbound line to terminate in the unelectrified siding).
Even though there'll be 90mph 158s at Heaton, I presume that the Morpeth stoppers (and Chathill extension) will require paths for 75mph 156s, which seems a waste on the ECML.
If only there were surplus 319s sitting around that we could convert into 769s...
More relevantly, it's a shame that the GNER ambition for a "Musselburgh Parkway" didn't happen - a four platform station on the outskirts of Edinburgh would have been a good place for the LDHS to overtake the stoppers - otherwise you are stuck behind a stopper all the way between Waverley and Drem.
But, given different politics both sides of the border, there's less urgency to solve things (similar to the problems with dualling of the A1)
If there's a risk of lack of space, why is capacity on the ECML so much lower than on the WCML?
On a weekday this is the number of booked workings on a double section of the WCML through Cheshire:
http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/advanced/XYJ/2017/08/18/0000-2359?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt while the current number of booked workings through Dunbar is considerably lower:
http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/advanced/DUN/2017/08/18/0000-2359?stp=WVS&show=all&order=wtt
How long is that double track section on the WCML though?
On the ECML you've got a hundred miles of two tracked railway with only a couple of loops - other than Dunbar all platforms are on the main line (and Dunbar has the awkward set up where a northbound service has to cross the southbound tracks twice to serve the station).
Plus there's the light running to/from the depots at Heaton/ Craigentinny, the "Borders" services as far as Portobello, the flat junctions.
A freight may only take a minute or two to clear a short bottleneck (compared to a passenger service), but over a hundred miles that's going to make quite a difference. A non stop LDHS can take around ninety minutes but you can be talking around two hours for freight to do the equivalent journey.