TPE franchise to move to OLR

[Fastlane256]

Why? There's nothing wrong with SWR.
Obviously the 701s are late, but Bombardier/Alstoms poor build is nothing to do with SWR

SWR have pretty bad performance figures. They had a 18% OT score for Windsor lines.

 

[gabrielhj07]

Because the franchise commitments have no relevance as they are for a contract that has been long since terminated, you are talking about commitments from a previous contract.

That’s the same as saying LNER haven’t fulfilled the commitment to run 3tph to Leeds because the previous contract said it would!

Dare I say that the travelling public won’t be too interested in what sort of contract these commitments were made under? They will just know that at some point, a promise of x was made, that remains unfulfilled.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Another poor take by Wolmar.

Care to elaborate?

I think he is spot on. “Private sector efficiency” is a fallacy. It is particularly a fallacy where there is a natural monopoly.

On top of that, GBR’s “guiding mind” will ensure that there is no scope for any sort of innovation, no matter how trivial or minor.

So effectively we will be paying hefty management contracts to private companies to supply services that would be supplied cheaper in-house. As everything else would be identical- staff, operational management, rolling stock- we’d at least save the hefty management fees by employing directly.

I really don’t see how the DfT buying a dog then barking themselves is a good use of money.

 

[Killingworth]

See

Realtime Trains | Departures from Leeds between 1630 and 1830 on 11/05/2023

Train information at Leeds between 1630 and 1830 on 11/05/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

Showing the cancelled services.

Trying to be slightly positive, South Pennine is possibly doing a little better at present (famous last words). 6 cars a bit lacking but seemingly only 2 of the supposedly hourly westbound trains missing today and one is not in the current timetable.
Still an issue with running all the way between Cleethorpes and Liverpool.See; https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/se...00-2359?stp=WVSC&show=all&order=actual&toc=TP

 

[Tetchytyke]

East Coast didn’t have to worry about profits, so it was much easier for them than any private TOC

Yet it made more money for the Treasury than both the preceding and subsequent private sector operators.

Of course both private sector operators nickel-and-dimed the operation and couldn’t understand why they lost custom.

NXEC did silly things like charge £5 for seat reservations. It can’t have raised much revenue but it managed to shred goodwill.

VTEC did silly things like halve the size of the glasses and mugs in first class, which can’t have saved much money but did manage to trash their premium product.

 

[JD2168]

Good news that First have lost the TPE contract. The way the services have been run for the last 2 years at most is not good enough for passengers. It also has not helped resorts like Cleethorpes that wanted to recover well after COVID then with hardly any trains running or cancelled at last moment it puts a lot of passengers off using them.

Hopefully the move to OLR will improve the service along with improving the industrial relations with the unions, particularly ASLEF to end the rest day working ban.

 

[tomuk]

Care to elaborate?

I think he is spot on. “Private sector efficiency” is a fallacy. It is particularly a fallacy where there is a natural monopoly.

Transport isn't a monopoly there are plenty of alternatives to rail.

On top of that, GBR’s “guiding mind” will ensure that there is no scope for any sort of innovation, no matter how trivial or minor.

I'd agree with that particularly if GBR turns out to be purely a renamed Network Rail. As currently proposed I can't see GBR being a sucess.

So effectively we will be paying hefty management contracts to private companies to supply services that would be supplied cheaper in-house. As everything else would be identical- staff, operational management, rolling stock- we’d at least save the hefty management fees by employing directly.

Would it be cheaper in house? What is to stop the in house operator from becoming bloated and bureaucratic? What incentive is there for a proper level of service?

I really don’t see how the DfT buying a dog then barking themselves is a good use of money.

That is purely dependant on how the system is structured.

 

[Tetchytyke]

Transport isn't a monopoly there are plenty of alternatives to rail.

No there isn’t. Not in any meaningful sense.

I mean, yes, technically I could cycle the 30 miles from Hemel Hempstead to London, or walk, or take a hot air balloon, or sit in a traffic jam for three hours in Edgware. But realistically, no.

It’s like saying water isn’t a monopoly because you can always go and wash yourself in a river.

Would it be cheaper in house? What is to stop the in house operator from becoming bloated and bureaucratic? What incentive is there for a proper level of service?

Franchise procurement is *incredibly* bureaucratic. All those lawyers, compliance teams, procurement specialists, they don’t come cheap. And the bidders’ costs of the same are priced into their fees. And the losers’ costs are priced into their next bid.

Not to mention the costs if a mistake is made- how much did the 2012 SNAFU on the West Coast franchise tender cost again?

And then compliance. All those delay attribution teams. Making sure franchises are paying what they should, doing what they should. You get a huge compliance team to manage it. The operator has one too- priced into their management fee.

Tell me with a straight face that the BR model was “bloated” by comparison.

 

[tomuk]

No there isn’t. Not in any meaningful sense.

I mean, yes, technically I could cycle the 30 miles from Hemel Hempstead to London, or walk, or take a hot air balloon, or sit in a traffic jam for three hours in Edgware. But realistically, no.

It’s like saying water isn’t a monopoly because you can always go and wash yourself in a river.

Commuting into London isn't representative of transport in general and even if it was it doesn't negate a properly regulated private operator.

Franchise procurement is *incredibly* bureaucratic. All those lawyers, compliance teams, procurement specialists, they don’t come cheap. And the bidders’ costs of the same are priced into their fees. And the losers’ costs are priced into their next bid.

Not to mention the costs if a mistake is made- how much did the 2015 SNAFU on the West Coast franchise tender cost again?

It did become incredibly bureaucratic as rail became so successful. The Dft and the Treasury became too greedy for revenue and too risk averse to loosing said revenue. Even so the bidding costs weren't excessive for the billion pounds of turnover and revenues concerned.

And then compliance. All those delay attribution teams. Making sure franchises are paying what they should, doing what they should. You get a huge compliance team to manage it. The operator has one too- priced into their management fee.

To run a proper service delay attribution would always be required. How do improve the service if you don't know what's causing the delays?

Tell me with a straight face that the BR model was “bloated” by comparison.

Not it wasn't. But what's currently proposed is some bloated hybrid of NR and DfT Rail Div with a 'snazzy' GBR flag logo on the door.

 

[Tetchytyke]

It did become incredibly bureaucratic as rail became so successful. The Dft and the Treasury became too greedy for revenue and too risk averse to loosing said revenue. Even so the bidding costs weren't excessive for the billion pounds of turnover and revenues concerned.

No, doing a tender properly is time-consuming, bureaucratic and expensive. The DfT learned this the hard way by doing it badly and finding out doing it badly is equally expensive.

The 2012 balls-up cost £40m. That was reimbursement of costs, nothing more, so it’s fair to assume *every* tender costs in the region of that much. Some are obvious costs, such as civil servant wages, others are hidden by being priced into bids.

Imagine what £20m-£40m would do to improve industrial relations at TPE, or Avanti.

Commuting into London isn't representative of transport in general and even if it was it doesn't negate a properly regulated private operator.

Proper regulation is expensive. Proper regulation is time-consuming and bureaucratic, because any decision to sanction has to be water-tight and will be picked apart at length by lawyers. And I mean picked-apart.

Where there’s a genuine market with genuine competition this is one thing, but where there isn’t a genuine market (no, “the car” and “the bus” doesn’t make rail a genuine market) then the whole thing makes no sense.

 

[Llandudno]

It did not stop them with their timetable changes into Liverpool last December were we gained additional through to Hull and Cleethorpes.

But what % of timetabled Cleethorpes trains actually operated all the way to Liverpool and vice versa?

 

[tomuk]

No, doing a tender properly is time-consuming, bureaucratic and expensive. The DfT learned this the hard way by doing it badly and finding out doing it badly is equally expensive.

The 2012 balls-up cost £40m. That was reimbursement of costs, nothing more, so it’s fair to assume *every* tender costs in the region of that much. Some are obvious costs, such as civil servant wages, others are hidden by being priced into bids.

Imagine what £20m-£40m would do to improve industrial relations at TPE, or Avanti.

Relatively it wouldn't make much difference it is mall change. Back in 2014 the TOCs were taking £9.6bn of income mainly from fares and paying DfT £2bn of premium payments.

Proper regulation is expensive. Proper regulation is time-consuming and bureaucratic, because any decision to sanction has to be water-tight and will be picked apart at length by lawyers. And I mean picked-apart.

Where there’s a genuine market with genuine competition this is one thing, but where there isn’t a genuine market (no, “the car” and “the bus” doesn’t make rail a genuine market) then the whole thing makes no sense.

There are plenty of places where there is a genuine market that's why only 10% of the public, to borrow someone's misused statistic, use rail.

 

[HamworthyGoods]

Dare I say that the travelling public won’t be too interested in what sort of contract these commitments were made under? They will just know that at some point, a promise of x was made, that remains unfulfilled.

Indeed, there’s many failed commitments. The ECML recast is probably one of the biggest outstanding at the moment.

 

[Killingworth]

But what % of timetabled Cleethorpes trains actually operated all the way to Liverpool and vice versa?

Not very many going west, see Recent TrainTimes for last 3 months; https://www.recenttraintimes.co.uk/...&MetAvg=Mea&MetSpr=RT&MxScDu=&MxSvAg=&MnScCt=

28th March eastbound was 100% but usually far worse, https://www.recenttraintimes.co.uk/...tAvg=Mea&MetSpr=RT&MxScDu=&MxSvAg=10&MnScCt=2

However within these awful averages an increasing number are running all the way and more arre running to time. It can be done.

 

[Chiltern006]

Who does southeastern?

sorry if answered but Go-Ahead group (owned by Govia)

 

[Trainguy34]

sorry if answered but Go-Ahead group (owned by Govia)

Ah, also sometimes see Travel masters, Stagecoach and mainly regents coaches doing the buses

 

[Fastlane256]

sorry if answered but Go-Ahead group (owned by Govia)

I thought that was OLR now.

 

[gledhill56]

I thought that was OLR now.

Southeastern is OLR, doesn’t exclude them having a contract with Go-Ahead for rail replacement vehicles though.

 

[humbersidejim]

Here’s an example of why, despite all the opportunistic politicking, I’m glad First have lost this contract. The knock on effects of not running a service have cost real people their livelihoods:

BBC Radio Humberside - David Burns, 11/05/2023, Station cafe forced to close due to train cancellations

Mark runs the station cafe at Grimsby Town train station

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Tetchytyke]

Relatively it wouldn't make much difference it is mall change. Back in 2014 the TOCs were taking £9.6bn of income mainly from fares and paying DfT £2bn of premium payments.

There are 16 traditional franchises in Britain. 16x£40m is £640m, every few years, and that was at 2012 prices. It’s about a third of the total premiums the Treasury received.

We must have different definitions of loose change!

I’m just sad at the waste. I don’t really care who runs the trains as long as they run but they’re not running, and the money wasted on management contracts could be better spent on making them run.

 

[ainsworth74]

To run a proper service delay attribution would always be required. How do improve the service if you don't know what's causing the delays?

Of course you will need delay attribution, BR had delay attributors (or their equivalent), but the present situation has, of course, bloated. It isn't just working out what caused a delay so recurring issues can be identified and solutions implemented but it's also about arguing who caused the delay because the person that did will be liable to make compensation payments between the effected operators, which means more lawyers, more compliance teams, more meetings, more oversight and on and on.

That is the issue with delay attribution. Not that it exists, it has to exist, but that it is yet another legalistic bun fight draining more money away that could be used elsewhere either within the industry itself or just saved to the tax payer.

 

[fusionblue]

Southeastern has been operated by OLR and since they took over there's been virtually no change aside from a new timetable that continues to cause problems at London Bridge whenever someone in Sheffield blinks three times. In the previous government Southeastern franchise the CEO (i forget the name) made regular updates on the website about what was happening and the challenges being faced - this time its "business as usual" as it always has been for well over a decade.

There's nothing to say that TPE will be any different that approach.

EDIT: Found it. https://web.archive.org/web/2005040...ins.co.uk/SETrains/CompanyInfo/HowAreWeDoing/

 

[josh-j]

Here’s an example of why, despite all the opportunistic politicking, I’m glad First have lost this contract. The knock on effects of not running a service have cost real people their livelihoods:

BBC Radio Humberside - David Burns, 11/05/2023, Station cafe forced to close due to train cancellations

Mark runs the station cafe at Grimsby Town train station

www.bbc.co.uk

Yes but even the government announcement says that the problems weren't just down to First and will not be fixed simply by changing the ownership.

Same old, same old. Structural reform is needed. Changing a TOC doesn't really do much at all, as shown by the fact lots of people including me are confused about who is actually "running" (really just owning) a particular TOC at the time.

 

[12LDA28C]

Care to elaborate?

I think he is spot on. “Private sector efficiency” is a fallacy. It is particularly a fallacy where there is a natural monopoly.

Is it? I suggest passengers on the Chiltern line would have a different view, with large-scale improvements to services and infrastructure since privatisation. They were even returning payments to the Government rather than taking subsidy in the latter years of the franchise.

 

[mpthomson]

Here’s an example of why, despite all the opportunistic politicking, I’m glad First have lost this contract. The knock on effects of not running a service have cost real people their livelihoods:

BBC Radio Humberside - David Burns, 11/05/2023, Station cafe forced to close due to train cancellations

Mark runs the station cafe at Grimsby Town train station

www.bbc.co.uk

The chances of the service improving just because it's gone into OLR are very slim in the short term

 

[12LDA28C]

Same old, same old. Structural reform is needed. Changing a TOC doesn't really do much at all, as shown by the fact lots of people including me are confused about who is actually "running" (really just owning) a particular TOC at the time.

Dare I suggest that most people couldn't give a toss about who owns or runs a particular TOC at any given time. What people do care about is that trains run as per the timetable and are clean, comfortable and affordable. What colour they are and so on is rather irrelevant.

 

[jfollows]

Dare I suggest that most people couldn't give a toss about who owns or runs a particular TOC at any given time. What people do care about is that trains run as per the timetable and are clean, comfortable and affordable. What colour they are and so on is rather irrelevant.

I think people only care about who owns and runs a particular TOC when things go wrong, when trains run late or not at all, when people need to claim redress or know whom to blame. You're right that if trains run as advertised and generally on-time it's much less important. However there are still plenty of people who think Virgin run the trains between Manchester and London so they might be the exception.

 

[12LDA28C]

I think people only care about who owns and runs a particular TOC when things go wrong, when trains run late or not at all, when people need to claim redress or know whom to blame.

In my experience when things go wrong, passengers still don't know whom to blame, for example blaming the TOC for signalling failures, a fatality and so on - things over which the TOC has no control. I agree however that how the TOC deals with these things is key and if it's done poorly then maybe they deserve some of the blame but the fact remains many passengers don't really understand how the railway works. But we are heading off-topic.

 

[LYuen]

The FAQs on the TPE are laughable.
Has "Can I still bring my bike?" ever been asked about the OLR taking over any failed franchise?

I wonder how they would change the delay repay threshold.
First Group ToCs except open accesses compensate 15-29 minutes delay while OLR start to compensate from 30 minutes.
I am curious if the new OLR will change it, or when.

 

[Agent_Squash]

I wonder how they would change the delay repay threshold. First Group ToCs except open accesses compensate 15-29 minutes delay while OLR start to compensate from 30 minutes. I am curious if the new OLR will change it, or when.

This isn’t correct. Southeastern and Northern both do Delay Repay 15.